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Homecoming Queen would've been hailed the best ever filly had it have been trained by Stoute or Cecil and had been fav !
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Two many of the good horses are now in the same stable so we end up not getting the best taking on ezch other look at the derby what a joke
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I would imagine when i am told this is the best horse ever he would have beat fields that had multi classic winner in it stacks of group1 winners behind you would think
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An eleven-length win, without being all out, at the horse who's a minimum high 120s in a time only just outside course record (despite slower ground than that on which the record is held). What's so outrageous about rating that the best performance in history? To say distances are sometimes irrelevant totally undermines the whole principal of handicapping - on what else can ratings be formed conistently, other than the margins between horses?
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against a horse, sorry
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I am not saying they can be irrelevant re handicapping,
I am saying they can be irrelevant when comparing horses with one another as the likes of Sea The Stars were never going to be visually as impressive as Frankel ! |
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So you suggest it's wise to essentially guess how much a horse had in hand, just because it's possibly beating horses of a better standard but by nothing like so far?
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no, I am saying one should not get away by how far a horse beats clearly inferior opposition !
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* get carried away
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This that I found is worth a read, though, just for their explanation
http://betting.betfair.com/horse-racing/royal-ascot/results-reviews/frankel-queen-anne-winner-is-timeforms-highest-rated-horse-in-history-on-147-200612-43.html |
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Horses win by a wide margin like Harbinger and Hawk Wing then are immediately dissed. Whereas when Frankel wins by a wide margin that is fine.
No-one is questioning Frankel's superiority over Excelebration. No-one either is saying that is Excelebration's true form. You cannot have both ffs. If Excelebration ran below form then by how much? Three lengths? That makes Frankel an 8 length winner. You see Frankel supporters wan't the 11 lengths but they don't want the 'Excelebration form' bit. Because if Excelebration ran true to form he only ran 114. With even Timeform rating system of +29 that makes Frankel 143. If Excelebration ran 3 lengths below form that makes him 120. Take 6lbs off Frankel that makes, according to Timeform, +23 superior we again reach 143. But they don't want that, do they? When Harbinger won he beat Workforce by a long way. Making the form look suspect. Then when Workforce was beaten further in the Arc last season perhaps the form is right? You cannot have both. Frankel supporters want both and that ain't going to happen. |
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... but Henry said he was the best ever
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How many extra pounds has Frankel gained from the Sir Henry Cecil attachment?
How many pounds has Frankel gained from the 'British horses are currently crap' attachment? How many pounds has Frankel gained from the 'we need a superstar' attachment? How many pounds has Frankel gained from the 'Racing for Change' attachment. Add to that the fact that this is definitely not a golden era for British racing and Timeform find the best racehorse ever. All of these points plus the hype and hysteria affect almost everybody but you can fool some of the people some of the time but not all of the people all of the time. |
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You see Frankel supporters wan't the 11 lengths but they don't want the 'Excelebration form' bit. Because if Excelebration ran true to form he only ran 114
you seem to be seething so much you are typinmg nonsense...if Excelebration ran to form Frankel would be in the high 150s the race is rated as a whole and Excelebration obviously ran below form (to suggest he didnt would require you to think 3rd, 4th etc all improved)...no big deal the idea that Timeform add on a few pounds for Henry Cecil/cos there's a recession and we need cheering up etc is just silly |
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so Excelebration is only half a length better than Side Glance ?!
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On the Morning Line the Timeform chap rated Frankel +29 on Excelebration. That is +19 more than they had originally rated them on 143 and 133. Are you with me Dunc?
Side Glance was beaten a fast diminishing neck by Excelebration and Side Glance is OF is 113. The 4th horse Indomito is rated it's highest ever rating of 108 and was beaten a length and a neck. To me, strictly on that form Excelebration ran to 114. If Frankel is +29, according to Timeform, that makes Frankel 114 + 29 = 143. If Excelebration ran 3 lengths below form and 8 lengths behind Frakel, 3 lengths further than the Lockinge, that means Excelebration should be +6 and Frankel -6. That makes Excelebration 114 + 6 = 120. By giving Excelebration +6 you must -6 to Frankel. We therefore have Excelebration 120 and Frankel +23 = 143. |
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Have TIMEFORM announced their TimeFIGURE - NOT Rating - for FRANKEL, on Tuesday, yet? -
AND - does anybody know what TimeFIGURE FRANKEL achieved in the 2000 Guineas? ---------------- I ask because their FRANKEL Rating EXPLANATION article (Link given above by -danrb - 23 Jun 12 10:29) - is TOTALLY TIME orientated and BASED ... Yet their END PRODUCT - a RATING of 147 is being compared against, "Traditional HANDICAPPING," (to use THEIR terminology) - which DOES produce RATINGS .... BUT, which, are NOT TIME based. It would appear, therefore, that TIMEFORM 'want their cake and to eat it ------------ MEANWHILE I am sat here with my copy of PHIL BULL's 'Best Horses of 1947' - with the book opened at the TUDOR MINSTREL pages - showing photographs of him winning the 2000 Guineas in identical fashion to FRANKEL .... Along with TUDOR MINSTREL's TIMEFIGURE for the race - Timeform RATINGS did NOT start until the following year, 1948. Some of the Text says ..... "Never have I seen a Guineas which can bear comparison with it, and I never expect to do so again. We have all seen races which were a foregone conclusion some way from home, but it was inconceivable that the Two Thousand Guineas should be over and done with before the horses had travelled half a mile. Yet at the half-way stage the 'quick result' men would have run no risk in telephoning TUDOR MINSTREL as the winner. The remainder were all stone cold a long way from home, leaving TUDOR MINSTREL with the race at his mercy." ------------------- Now - Where are those TIMEFIGURES for FRANKEL, please? |
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I have a problem with time figures Onlooker.
First the going reports cannot be trusted. Even today they are not trusted on a day to day basis. Secondly course management must be different with length of grass etc. Thirdly, I know we have had a wet time of it, but surely global warming and racecourse watering must have an effect. And finally they have just laid a new surface at Ascot. I doubt it was a 1947 surface, do you? Some people cling to time figures to prove a point but I find them the must unreliable source of information on British courses. They may be super in the US but not here imo. |
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^ brigust .
As you know - we are both 'singing from the same Hymn Sheet' there - with so-called 'Speed Figures' As I posted the other day ... They are ALL based upon, and consequently calculated from, somebody's OPINION of the (mostly MYTHICAL) 'Going Allowance' .... that being something that can only be entirely UNQUANTIFIABLE to anything approaching exactness. Consequently - EVERY Speed Figure for EVERY Horse in EVERY Race simply CANNOT be definitive. To then 'award' a 'Handicap RATING' - based upon such methodology is, in my book, boith scurrilous. - and entirely UNrespresentative. --------------------- My query, therefore, - Was to merely compare THEIR TIMEfigures for both TUDOR MINSTREL and FRANKEL - as they have been calculated by THEIR same modus operandi. |
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The only figures I have for Tudor Minstrel are as follows.
Newmarket 2000 Gns 8f. Good. Made all never out of canter. Won. 1.74 fast Asct. St James Place. Good. 8f. Made all. Won. .05 fast Sandown. Eclipse. 10f. Good. Made running, ralied, faltered. 2nd. 1.29 fast Ascot. Knights Royal Stakes. Good. 8f. Made all. .75 fast. It appears the going was either good or good. |
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And of course The Derby.
Epsom. Derby. 12f. Good. Always there took lead app.Tattenham Corner. Hard ridden. Btn 2 out. 4th. 0.45 fast. |
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brigust .
I, too, HAVE all the figures for TUDOR MINSTREL - In fact - I HAVE everything of any consequence, .... ALL Golden Miller's FORM BOOKS -- and BROWN JACK's etc, etc . It is the FRANKEL figures that we NEED for comparison. |
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^ Oh and SCEPTRE's FORM BOOK's - Rough Guide to the Turf.
- and the Racing Calendars for every year of the individual Classics. ![]() |
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^ * FIRST year of the individual Classics.
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some of them must be worth a nice few bob onlooker,
where do you live please ![]() |
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I have Sea Bird 11's original French racecard.
I got rid of my formbooks when I moved about 6 years ago. Thankfully there was a lot of cash about, or credit, in them days and made a few bob. I have kept a few around the mid 60s to mid 70s for reference. That was a brilliant era imo. Sorry I digress. Perhaps we are just old gits living in the past. The day will come when these new boys will be old gits living in the past. |
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- in the British Library.
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onlooker, do you know that if Tudor Minstrel had won the Derby the Joe Coral outfit
would not been able to pay old Joe stood it for far more than he was worth at the time. |
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Google says you are situated near King's Cross, you have everything at your fingertips imo
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brigust1
23 Jun 12 11:36 Joined: 07 Dec 01 | Topic/replies: 3,759 | Blogger: brigust1's blog On the Morning Line the Timeform chap rated Frankel +29 on Excelebration. That is +19 more than they had originally rated them on 143 and 133. Are you with me Dunc? brigust1 can you explain please how is Frankel +29 on Excelebration 143 vs 133 is ten pounds difference? |
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or points whatever you call them Newbie here just asking?
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Occasionally the international handicappers get it wrong and if
you are awake you can spot the flaws and make them pay. Several years ago they rated OASIS DREAM as the top 2yo, yet if anyone went through the beatings of other horses, then SOMNUS MUST have been rated the top at about 5lbs superior to OASIS DREAM, check my assertion out, they both met and beat the same horse but SOMNUS gave 6lbs when beating that horse. |
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On the Morning Line the Timeform chap rated Frankel +29 on Excelebration. That is +19 more than they had originally rated them on 143 and 133. Are you with me Dunc?
yes, 29lb beating on Tuesday....19lb more than prev cos Frankel improved 4lb and Excelebration was 15lb below form. what Side Glance etc are officially rated has nothing to do with what Timeform rate them and thus how they have arrived at Frankel's rating....only confusing matters |
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he meant on tuesdays running ... Frankel 147 (improvement of 4lbs), Excelebration 118 (15lbs below form)
Brigust is mixing BHA ratings and Timeform ratings which are on a different scale so incomparable, you can only compare old timeform with new timeform if you want to crab timeform. BHA recalibrated their own scale so that like for like is not comparable also |
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gentlemen, bullet train is the key.
frankel only beat him a few lengths more in the queen anne than he had been previously. it is a complete waste of talent running this horse against excelebration again and again. as many of u know i have been harping on about it for quite some time. frankel is a worthy champion and i dont for a second question the ability of this horse but excelebration is not a reliable yard stick anymore, that horse is a very average g1 winner imo and his races without frankel prove this. as already mentiond, its frankels high rating that actually keeps his so high because he keeps finishing 2nd to him all the time. if frankel wasnt around they would be saying excelebration is one of the best ever which is too frightening for me to think of. ratings are just opinion, timefore have been itching to up frankels rating since the beginning, i wouldnt pay them much attention tbh. they are a useful guidline thats all. frankel needs a new challange now, hes not going to the eclipse from what ive read and will take his place in the sussex, i cant really express how much this saddens and annoys me. quite incredible this horse hasnt been stepped up in trip and i cant for the life of me understand why. just give him the first place for the sussex and be done with it because when he beats excelebration for the 5th or 6th time by a similar distance the press will be even more delerious, quite sad really as others have done what he has but over every trip and only needed one or 2 runs at the same distance to prove they were the best. they can rate frankel what they want, but i think more highly of horses that have won the guineas derbys arcs etc not the feckin sussex and queen anne against the same fookin horse, one horse. the funny thing u keep hearing he'd beat dancing brave over a mile or nijinsky etc and maybe he would have but he wouldnt know which way they went over 12 so whats the difference? the difference in their achievements however is quite big as when frankel was winning the queen eliz, nijinsky was a triple crown winner, quite remarkable. i say let him have the highest rating ever, good for him, give him 150 if it will satisfy timeform because i personally will never hold him in the same regard as the horses that have achieved the truly remarkable and i blame henry and the prince for not allowing the horse to really prove his greatness and instead wasted his talent and playing it safe, dont know about anyone else but im gettng pretty tired of hearing the phrase 'he'll tell us what to do'. |
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gentlemen, bullet train is the key.
![]() that's me out! |
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Difference between Timeform and BHA is 7 points?
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Do Timeform publish historic timeform figures anywhere? e.g. if I wanted to find the timeform ratings (at that point in time) for all runners of a particular race in the past year, are these numbers available?
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Comparing ratings from this season to last season or next season is futile let alone 40 years apart, the purpose of ratings is for them to be used in the season they're in as the season progresses, anything else is pure opinion and totally subjective as any opinion can neither be preoven nor disproven.
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Passage of time and unsatisfactory memory have lead me to say OASIS DREAM and SOMNUS met TOUT SEUL, but they didn't, the link was TOMAHAWK whom TOUT SEUL beat at levels by 1 and
a quarter lengths, but lost to SOMNUS by a head receiving 6lbs, so in theory when OASIS DREAM beat TOMAHAWK 1 and a half lengths then SOMNUS came out 5lbs superior to OASIS DREAM, they only met once and SOMNUS won by 1 and a quarter lengths in the Haydock sprint. |