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I've convinced myself there is some profit to be had here, small profit but green all the same.
Basically, I will lay horses blindly at 1.07 or 1.25 or 1.33 or something like that and trust in the long run a profitable amount will get turned over.
I have done some lazy research into this in the past and found the data encouraging however much more quantity was needed for the data to be in any way reliable.
I just need to figure out what races to play in. I'm expecting tight handicaps to be slightly more productive.
Anybody got any ideas or suggestions? Or it is probably so lazy that every other mug has thought of this and there's no real profit in it at all.
Perhaps maybe the blind place lay at 1.05 in 16+ Hcaps?
Basically, I will lay horses blindly at 1.07 or 1.25 or 1.33 or something like that and trust in the long run a profitable amount will get turned over.
I have done some lazy research into this in the past and found the data encouraging however much more quantity was needed for the data to be in any way reliable.
I just need to figure out what races to play in. I'm expecting tight handicaps to be slightly more productive.
Anybody got any ideas or suggestions? Or it is probably so lazy that every other mug has thought of this and there's no real profit in it at all.
Perhaps maybe the blind place lay at 1.05 in 16+ Hcaps?
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Soft ground at Towcester not a bad place to do it. Generally moderate horses and very testing conditions mean a lot can change up that hill. Downpatrick similar in Ireland.
Stevie Wonder,Ray Charles..........the blind bloke from Peters and Lee...........the blind ex miner from Peterlee Co Durham aka Charnier have all failed.hth
a tip for you, put the odds slightly above the fractional equivalent, faves of mine are 1.34, 1.51, 2.02, 4.2, 6.4, 11.5 etc, etc
kohaku used to do this with some success i believe...he's not been on here for a few months tho
the trouble with looking at past data is that you are assuming:
- you would have been matched at similar prices. there are bots operating that may jump ahead at the vital moment and so won't deal when you expect to
- the people losing money backing at low prices are still there making the same mistakes. in theory market efficiency will mean that its basically going to be a zero sum game over time. unless you have an edge (quicker pics, better understanding of the horses involved, track bias (real or just a visual effect), front runner/closer bias).
- you would have been matched at similar prices. there are bots operating that may jump ahead at the vital moment and so won't deal when you expect to
- the people losing money backing at low prices are still there making the same mistakes. in theory market efficiency will mean that its basically going to be a zero sum game over time. unless you have an edge (quicker pics, better understanding of the horses involved, track bias (real or just a visual effect), front runner/closer bias).
would there be a difference between ruk and atr tracks?
put the odds slightly above the fractional equivalen
it can be done, even now
i have it on bad authority the only one that produces a prophet is.........1.06
i have it on bad authority the only one that produces a prophet is.........1.06
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