Heavily backed horses like Changing Lanes today at Southwell!

Its impossible,the same as laying big drifters.

yeah id never risk laying at big odds, but i tend to find favs that drift to big odds tend to lose

any "proper" gamble will start fav, there's not many like this, so you must be backing too many to have lost it all in 2 weeks....everthing you are backing should be starting fav.........recent ones to my head are silver linnet, brunello, cut the cackle, taajub............these ALL WON, so i dont know how you lost???

They do tend to lose,the same as gambles tend to win but not all do and the odds will eventually leave you behind about your commission imho.

I got greedy, started with small stakes and went on an amazing run, it worked very well at Dundalk on Fri nights, but then my small stakes went up to 50 win, 100 win and then eventually 500 stake wins, i won 6 grand but lost 3400 in 2 weeks chasing my losses! Stupid i know

So you think stick to favs thats start as paper favs and continue to get backed up until the off?

it works, you just got greedy i'd say

Most gambles LOSE...........that is documented fact.If you won a huge amount of cash and then lost it within 2 weeks you answered your own question.

Like those that follow Pricewise.......you may have a run but ultimately........long term losers.

Taipan501, is this how you bet? I need to be more disciplined in future i think

no!! those horse i mentioned where WAY bigger the night before, double figures backed into fav............fook the paper fav

like you said changing lanes, 9/1 last night into evens...........they are not exactly gonna leave that money behind now, are they??

i think you just had to many bets, maybe backing false gambles going from like 30's to 5's, but not into fav.......thats the key

Haha i even told the wife id win enough to pay off our mortgage (£21,000) before i came crashing back down to earth!

Tai.........no offence m8 but you giving advice on too many bets is like Gordon Brown giving advice on bank accounts.

i follow money, but thats not the only bets i have

also i have study races for say an hour the night before, and say i picked something out that i really like...........and you look at the market and see a massive move for one, you just have to follow the money instead

examples silver linnet and taajuub, i had other horses picked the night b4, but dropped them cos off the gambles

J............i play the %'s with my own bets, its irrelevent how many bets i have

how many bets do those amalfi lads be putting up???EH???

Yeah i find the biggest gambles tend to win only when backed into the actual fav, I do the same, I will pick a horse thst I fancy but then get put off due to odds, I looked at backing Divinsky the other day but was put off by Betfairs odds of 32, CD specialist and it bloody went and won, gutteddddddd

How much better off would you be if you just waited for e.g the molerat Tai? Then lumped on?

i dont really follow n.h and missed changing lanes...........but fook me that was some gamble

i think i'd still be waiting for the molerat.........havent heard from that in a loooooooong time

anyway i have the giggilo, NOTHING compares

molerat tai??? I had 50 ew on pension plan a few weeks ago, backed from 50s into 6.8 fav, won by a mile, went through the fos las mud with elegance, the only one that went on the heavy going but had poor form before that, gambles like that cannot be ignored

Btw Tai..........the Amalfi have a pretty good strike rate,well above 60% winners to tips.Only the past few weeks I have been punting them for more than a few $s.

thats what i'm saying, nothing wrong with having lots of bets as long as they are winning returns

thats what i am saying mansf, it started fav, didnt it??? they are the ones to back

I try to wait now and bet only when im sure, instead of punting every race, thats a recipe for disaster

Molerat and Amalfi are without doubt the most prolific sources of winners this forum has ever had.........or any forum for that matter.

Patience is a virtue...........a profitable one.

Yes it went off fav, it overtook at least 5 or 6 nags just before the off

JAFEICAagain pays the molerat for info, and posts it freely on the forum from time to time............defo worth following, but havent seen a post for months

giggilo has a 50% strike rate on 20/1 shots, or not far off and i know he posts somewhere else

Thanks for the advice Taipan501, i shall take that on board and try and gamble only if i watch a heavily backed nag go into fav, it makes sense i agree

the key with the fav thing is...........that despite people arbing like fook the thing still goes off fav.......indicating a very strong gamble. ie connections want on and at ANY price

Molerat has been hibernating Tai,met up with him two weeks ago.

All was frozen and bleak,he didnt want to get involved with the AW.

In his own words,we could go for a touch but so could a few others in the same race,not worth the risk.

will look forward to his next advice J

You dudes are saying molerat and amalfi? are these tipsters who post on here regular or something

i dont look at tips on here to be honest

o.p , you should always back your " divinskys " at 30's, small bet to win big........the bigger the price the better, dont be put off by that if you like one

no, molerat hasnt been on for months, and amalfi tip in america, and i dont know what there record is.................anyway, try your gambles thing again see how that goes

You should have been awake when I was stuck in the hotel Tai,the Amalfi were on fire.Only losers in the US were the ones I chose,even then had a few nice winners.

More luck than anything maybe,getting a handle on it though,passed a good few grand and came out with profit at about 25%.Better than when I messed around for a few $s for fun.

I missed the boat on a lot of theirs,even the ones posted.

ye, you just wanted to see if they were any good first, eh?

Yeah i will thanks pal, been good chatting to somebody who follows the money as i do, thanks for the advice, i shall be having a bet tomorrow at kempton and will keep an eye on the heavily backed nags that go into fav! that is of course if there is any? off to bed now up at 6am for work :( wish i could gamble full time to make a wage, but thats dreaming im afraid, cheers lads

thanks to the giggilo i'm on some of those 20/1 shots that are starting fav.........its funny as fook, sitting with 20's and the thing goin off 3/1

Tai...........how does giggs manage to juggle breastfeeding and form?

Btw re-The Amalfi and my bets.........purely boredom and a mini bar which I drank dry Tai.........only looking back I/we could have won a fair bit.

i dont know, but he's doing it alright. amazing

Hi, Mansfieldman I suggest Gambler's Anonymous

thanks aracnid, but i dont need your input on this matter

did you back all about you today??

no mate, i work fulltime so struggle to bet during the day, just had abit on backed in fav ensnare, led near the end but weakened

what was early odds and sp of all about you?

9/4 last night, it was trading around 1.66 at the off, thats a proper move

Did you get on

there was no money for ensare, the bookies just cut the odds cos the 2 other "barney" horse won........sure it was weak as piss b4 the off

what about that last tony carroll horse at kempton

heavily backed into fav

Timefrom radio said from the £550,000 traded on the race £280,000 went on ensnare?
Yeah i missed that coz ive got footy on TV

4/1 into 2/1........that sort of move happens every race

ensnare drifted pre off, it would have been 1/2 if it was gonna win

"molerat tai??? I had 50 ew on pension plan a few weeks ago, backed from 50s into 6.8 fav, won by a mile, went through the fos las mud with elegance, the only one that went on the heavy going but had poor form before that, gambles like that cannot be ignored"

Mansfield Man, this was a decent gamble on a Sunday where the markets wouldn't have been that strong. The biggest I saw the horse was 20s and there was a steady constant flow of cash which seemed to get stronger before the off.

The horse had no form this season because it had 2 runs to open the pipes. The fact Pension Plan was beaten less than 10L by Wishful Thinking Dec09 would have been something to go on though.

yes to be honest 3foot i didnt even look at the form of pension plan. i did notice its recent form was poor but that ride in behind wishful thinking would have defo got me interested