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Last year i started placing my bets on horses that were heavily backed throughout the day at the last minute, i had alot of success and won a huge aount of cash although the problem was i got very small odds. I must admit the bubble soon burst and i must admit i lost half of my winnings in just 2 weeks! Whats your opinion on ths guys?
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Replies: 55
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Its impossible,the same as laying big drifters.
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yeah id never risk laying at big odds, but i tend to find favs that drift to big odds tend to lose
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any "proper" gamble will start fav, there's not many like this, so you must be backing too many to have lost it all in 2 weeks....everthing you are backing should be starting fav.........recent ones to my head are silver linnet, brunello, cut the cackle, taajub............these ALL WON, so i dont know how you lost???
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They do tend to lose,the same as gambles tend to win but not all do and the odds will eventually leave you behind about your commission imho.
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I got greedy, started with small stakes and went on an amazing run, it worked very well at Dundalk on Fri nights, but then my small stakes went up to 50 win, 100 win and then eventually 500 stake wins, i won 6 grand but lost 3400 in 2 weeks chasing my losses! Stupid i know
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So you think stick to favs thats start as paper favs and continue to get backed up until the off?
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it works, you just got greedy i'd say
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Most gambles LOSE...........that is documented fact.If you won a huge amount of cash and then lost it within 2 weeks you answered your own question.
Like those that follow Pricewise.......you may have a run but ultimately........long term losers. |
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Taipan501, is this how you bet? I need to be more disciplined in future i think
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no!! those horse i mentioned where WAY bigger the night before, double figures backed into fav............fook the paper fav
like you said changing lanes, 9/1 last night into evens...........they are not exactly gonna leave that money behind now, are they?? i think you just had to many bets, maybe backing false gambles going from like 30's to 5's, but not into fav.......thats the key |
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Haha i even told the wife id win enough to pay off our mortgage (£21,000) before i came crashing back down to earth!
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Tai.........no offence m8 but you giving advice on too many bets is like Gordon Brown giving advice on bank accounts.
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i follow money, but thats not the only bets i have
also i have study races for say an hour the night before, and say i picked something out that i really like...........and you look at the market and see a massive move for one, you just have to follow the money instead examples silver linnet and taajuub, i had other horses picked the night b4, but dropped them cos off the gambles |
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J............i play the %'s with my own bets, its irrelevent how many bets i have
how many bets do those amalfi lads be putting up???EH??? |
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Yeah i find the biggest gambles tend to win only when backed into the actual fav, I do the same, I will pick a horse thst I fancy but then get put off due to odds, I looked at backing Divinsky the other day but was put off by Betfairs odds of 32, CD specialist and it bloody went and won, gutteddddddd
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How much better off would you be if you just waited for e.g the molerat Tai? Then lumped on?
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i dont really follow n.h and missed changing lanes...........but fook me that was some gamble
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i think i'd still be waiting for the molerat.........havent heard from that in a loooooooong time
anyway i have the giggilo, NOTHING compares |
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molerat tai??? I had 50 ew on pension plan a few weeks ago, backed from 50s into 6.8 fav, won by a mile, went through the fos las mud with elegance, the only one that went on the heavy going but had poor form before that, gambles like that cannot be ignored
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Btw Tai..........the Amalfi have a pretty good strike rate,well above 60% winners to tips.Only the past few weeks I have been punting them for more than a few $s.
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thats what i'm saying, nothing wrong with having lots of bets as long as they are winning returns
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thats what i am saying mansf, it started fav, didnt it??? they are the ones to back
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I try to wait now and bet only when im sure, instead of punting every race, thats a recipe for disaster
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Molerat and Amalfi are without doubt the most prolific sources of winners this forum has ever had.........or any forum for that matter.
Patience is a virtue...........a profitable one. |
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Yes it went off fav, it overtook at least 5 or 6 nags just before the off
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JAFEICAagain pays the molerat for info, and posts it freely on the forum from time to time............defo worth following, but havent seen a post for months
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giggilo has a 50% strike rate on 20/1 shots, or not far off
 and i know he posts somewhere else |
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Thanks for the advice Taipan501, i shall take that on board and try and gamble only if i watch a heavily backed nag go into fav, it makes sense i agree
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the key with the fav thing is...........that despite people arbing like fook the thing still goes off fav.......indicating a very strong gamble. ie connections want on and at ANY price
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Molerat has been hibernating Tai,met up with him two weeks ago.
All was frozen and bleak,he didnt want to get involved with the AW. In his own words,we could go for a touch but so could a few others in the same race,not worth the risk. |
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will look forward to his next advice J
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You dudes are saying molerat and amalfi? are these tipsters who post on here regular or something
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i dont look at tips on here to be honest
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o.p , you should always back your " divinskys " at 30's, small bet to win big........the bigger the price the better, dont be put off by that if you like one
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no, molerat hasnt been on for months, and amalfi tip in america, and i dont know what there record is.................anyway, try your gambles thing again see how that goes
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You should have been awake when I was stuck in the hotel Tai,the Amalfi were on fire.Only losers in the US were the ones I chose,even then had a few nice winners.
More luck than anything maybe,getting a handle on it though,passed a good few grand and came out with profit at about 25%.Better than when I messed around for a few $s for fun. I missed the boat on a lot of theirs,even the ones posted.   |
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ye, you just wanted to see if they were any good first, eh?
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Yeah i will thanks pal, been good chatting to somebody who follows the money as i do, thanks for the advice, i shall be having a bet tomorrow at kempton and will keep an eye on the heavily backed nags that go into fav! that is of course if there is any? off to bed now up at 6am for work :( wish i could gamble full time to make a wage, but thats dreaming im afraid, cheers lads
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thanks to the giggilo i'm on some of those 20/1 shots that are starting fav.........its funny as fook, sitting with 20's and the thing goin off 3/1
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