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geton
25 Jan 12 05:36
Joined:
Date Joined: 05 Aug 02
| Topic/replies: 3,170 | Blogger: geton's blog
Will be posting my thoughts on all weather maidens here from now on.

The door is open for anyone with any opinions or information who want to share.
Pause Switch to Standard View All Weather maiden thread - 2012
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Report thehappysnapper March 22, 2012 9:59 AM GMT
going head to head with you then mate.

im with Chapple Hyam's but is a bit too short now
Report gman500 March 22, 2012 11:19 AM GMT
Good luck Fellas- been away for a while. Ain't got time for the full write up but Lady Macduff and Dropzone in an e.w. double for me today. Cape Samba may well win but the car park draw worries me and MJs horse may get an easy lead but .... at prices Happy to give another chance to this Dropzone at 12s
Report thehappysnapper March 22, 2012 11:44 AM GMT
fingers crossed u dont get another non runner in the wolver race gman.
Report gman500 March 22, 2012 11:51 AM GMT
Agreed. Hope all's going well your end
Report gman500 March 22, 2012 11:52 AM GMT
Agreed. Hope all's going well your end
Report Virgin March 22, 2012 12:55 PM GMT
REDINESSENCE 25-1 (40-1 with Vic though) my e/w choice with some early form coming out of debut race 3 runs produced a winner a 2nd and a 4th

gl
Report Virgin March 22, 2012 1:17 PM GMT
the 3rd in her debut race was a  Rhagori Laugh
Report Virgin March 22, 2012 6:37 PM GMT
sandnik    Cool

Legend200 Cool
Report thehappysnapper March 23, 2012 10:16 AM GMT
well done yesterday guys.

think your wrong legend for the record. 3yo's with decent form on turf last year generally do very well, the maidens this time of year just dont take much winning.

not even sure your arguement makes sense because lady macduff was having her first run of the year as well but a good lay all the same.

im backing one against your system today legend called Dreaming Of Rubies in the last at wolver. sent off 4/1 on debut and showed decent speed, should be suited by this speed track i reckon.

Nevaeh took ages to pick up last time over 6f off a very strong pace.

trail of tears form just doesnt look that strong to me.

money for verge but i cant really have it to be honest even tho its exactly the sort of horse i like in these contests
Report thehappysnapper March 23, 2012 1:27 PM GMT
didnt realise u were only referring to odds on shots.

i guess u will go broke backing odds on shots regardless of whether they are in maidens, sellers, handicaps etc
Report thehappysnapper March 23, 2012 3:30 PM GMT
possibly only beaten today by jockey error but yep i see what your saying.

plenty of horses dont train on from 2 to 3 so taking odds on unless you are itk is a dangerous game.

Horses that run down the pack in strong maidens tho and still go off decent prices on the all weather like your verge can be great value tho. altho i watch that ones run a few times and i dont really like it. she didnt look noticably green she just looked very slow and not sure this speed favouring track will suit it.

but its a fair price i guess.
Report teddog1 March 23, 2012 8:47 PM GMT
i bin keepin the faith ths    cheers
Report madhatters March 23, 2012 8:50 PM GMT
WD THS Grin
Report thehappysnapper March 23, 2012 9:42 PM GMT
wow what a drift.

thought 4/1 was big. shows what i know, must have gone off about 8/1 on here. the owners like a punt as well and obviously backed on debut then leave it when its a bigger price in a worse race.

had a couple of near misses so nice to land one
Report Virgin March 23, 2012 9:45 PM GMT
thehappysnapper      Cool wd
Report thehappysnapper March 23, 2012 10:45 PM GMT
i wonder if beggers will take his chance tomorrow.

the longer trip will suit but reckon its a much better race so certainly not going to go mad considering its about the same price.

Benbecula is a horrible favourite, i would rather be on the other hannon horse at these prices. Hefner is rated 83 which is more than good enough to win any all weather maiden and the form of his last run is probably decent pulling 8 lengths clear of the vast majority of the runners.

i like half the field tho at this stage.
Report sandnik March 24, 2012 8:00 AM GMT
nice one with Rubies thehappysnapper Happy
you said you prefer it when they drift Wink
I've not watched Benbecula in any races so need to check out, but can't see anything wrong initially, but the race is tough and I'm not too keen on favs, especially after Trail Of Tears effort yesterday, why back short favs when you can fill your boots with rubies Grin
Report jon b March 24, 2012 9:13 AM GMT
n1 geton yesterday ,proper flat just around the corner to look forward to ,plenty of decent maidens for you to get stuck into Happy
Report thehappysnapper March 24, 2012 10:55 AM GMT
the price of Hefner does stink a little bit but i just cant resist a little interest at 11/2.

OR of 83 beaten a short head in a newbury maiden last time and now Jamie Spencer has taken the ride. i would have been surprised to see him trading at even money on other days.

ive now played 3 haha. throw enough mud and surely something will stick
Report thehappysnapper March 24, 2012 3:38 PM GMT
good enough result.

Beggers Banquet the one to take out of the race tho i reckon. came from a long way back to finish 5th. maybe not next time may be handicap mark then switched to a bigger more galloping turf track.

He will be winning soon tho thats for sure.

Had a little interest on Hazaz in the 2nd maiden at 5/2. run a couple of really good races last year, handicap mark of 100 looks a pretty silly but still is useful enough. only really the Hills horse to beat and most of theirs have been needing a run this year. think they have had 3 odds on shots in three days turned over.
Report thehappysnapper March 26, 2012 7:19 AM BST
wow

Valbchek already into 2/5.

Unraced Noseda horse, seen plenty of these get beat down the years.
Report thehappysnapper March 26, 2012 10:11 AM BST
going to take on this flying machine and hope Murtagh gets lost around the tight turns of lingfield.

The obvious one is Aurens at 11/2 with ladbrokes just looks far too big after a promising debut at kempton behind a well backed newcomer who has gone in again since.

I reckon Lazeez has achieved slightly more than the market has given him credit for. very green on debut and then looked to completely lost balance running into the dip at newmarket but again showed speed. I'm not sure Brittain has his horses fit or if he is just just handicap project but at 20/1 plus think its worth an interest to find out.
Report Virgin March 26, 2012 10:33 AM BST
got to take it on with something .....  will have a look Mischief
Report Virgin March 26, 2012 11:41 AM BST
3.45 Shame there's only 2 places available

connections of the Fav have supposedly told Johnny Murtagh that the trip over will be 'worth his while' Mischief but Sire stats of Acclamation don't look particularly strong

Aurens debut run looks OK but not liking today's price Plain

if we go against the Fav my likeliest newcomer on paper is PASHAN GARH 33-1 BOG only small e/w

probably one to watch or lay the fav in reality Mischief

gl if you play
Report gman500 March 26, 2012 1:48 PM BST
Fav lay for me at the prices. Bound to go skint backing these ones in the long term. 2-5 and never been on the courseCrazy
Report Virgin March 26, 2012 3:53 PM BST
1st    6    Valbchek     1.41     1.36     +7% Sad
2nd    5    Pashan Garh     48.78     26     +82% Happy
Report Virgin March 26, 2012 4:21 PM BST
Blush
Report thehappysnapper March 27, 2012 6:48 AM BST
Couple of interesting ones but going to give Feeling Good another go in the 3.00 southwell.

Caught my eye at newcastle on debut and then got a pretty poor ride, held up last off a steady pace at wolverhampton last time when backed off the boards from 10/1 into 11/4. I see they have jocked off the kid that rode it last time and stuck McHugh on so maybe they arent just after a handicap mark. Breeding suggests he will handle this surface with aplomb has race fitness on his side over a couple of the more fancied ones and will be staying strongly (thats if of course he is trying).

worth paying to find out at around 12/1.

at the current prices he is my only bet in the race but expect that to change as the market develops.
Report thehappysnapper March 27, 2012 10:24 AM BST
bookies have been super defensive on Supaheart and im not surprised because i think she has an outstanding chancce despite the awkward draw.

led decent field at newbury and wasnt put under pressure once the gambled on stablemate and favourite coasted past. Morrison's horses are bang in form and he always seems to find the right horses to run at southwell because they all seem to love the surface. Robert Winston when the money is down is as good as any and hasa great record for the yard.

unfortunately no better than 7/2 with the bookies but seems to be getting matched at 4/1 on here.
Report Virgin March 27, 2012 10:44 AM BST
After  Clayton won @ evens on debut has Kevin Ryan returned to the well with another from the same Sire in HAYWAIN.....

surely it can't be that simple .....
Report sandnik March 27, 2012 11:02 AM BST
Of those that have run I think Lanarkshire 3:00 Southwell looks strongest
Got it in some multiples, roll on the flat
GL guys
Report gman500 March 27, 2012 11:16 AM BST
Supaheart is a decent bet today from all angles and HM has a great record at the track. i took some 4s earlier Grin
Report thehappysnapper March 27, 2012 11:26 AM BST
your both wrong....wont hear of defeat for Supaheart. especially now the money is down across the boards.

your playing for places only Wink
Report thehappysnapper March 27, 2012 11:28 AM BST
goes off 6/4 fav and wins hard held.

was it 4s everywhere gman or just sportingbet?
Report Virgin March 27, 2012 11:30 AM BST
sandwik

That sums the raced one's up if Lanarkshire's the best form to go on Sad

Supaheart looks poor on paper on Fibresand only 2 from the Sire have placed (over shorter) in the last 4 years

win & place lay it (imo) NO LAY though Blush

HAYWAIN small e/w

Plain I might be wrong but I think I'm right Mischief Laugh
Report thehappysnapper March 27, 2012 11:35 AM BST
the market will tell us all we need to know about Haywain.

early signs arent great for it but like it is only early.

good luck gents, hope you see the light over the next couple of hours Virgin and join in the gamble
Report Virgin March 27, 2012 11:37 AM BST
Blush
Report thehappysnapper March 27, 2012 11:38 AM BST
not sure how you make Lanarkshires form stronger than outback's sandnik?

surely that ones irish form is far stronger. all opinions tho, we will probably all get it wrong and highway warrior will win it
Report gman500 March 27, 2012 12:09 PM BST
4ish on betty was what i got
Report Virgin March 27, 2012 3:05 PM BST
sandnik    wd Cool

Supaheart DevilShocked
Report thehappysnapper March 27, 2012 3:07 PM BST
well done sandwik.

kunnt of a result for me.

only backed feeling good win only.

Supaheart traded at 1.33 in the run.

finished 2nd and 3rd and left it all behind ffs.
Report Virgin March 27, 2012 3:08 PM BST
I was almost right Laugh
Report thehappysnapper March 27, 2012 3:11 PM BST
right about what Haywain wasnt sighted was he?
Report gman500 March 27, 2012 3:14 PM BST
def think the best horse in the race finished third. Combination of surface and lay off cost Supa that race for sure
Report thehappysnapper March 27, 2012 3:17 PM BST
yep just wasnt quite fit enough to finish her race off against two that had the benefit of race fitness.

will be interesting to see what mark she gets after that. if they rate the race around outback they are all in trouble but think they will use their commonsense.
Report Virgin March 27, 2012 4:05 PM BST
Supaheart looks poor on paper on Fibresand only 2 from the Sire have placed (over shorter) in the last 4 years

win & place lay it (imo) NO LAY though Blush
Report thehappysnapper March 27, 2012 9:33 PM BST
the sire hasnt had many runners at southwell has he.
Report thehappysnapper March 28, 2012 9:13 AM BST
playing in all the maidens today for varying stakes.

12.30 - Cryptic Choice @ 3/1 (and drifting)

Pretty green all of last and clearly a bit of a headcase but did show more than ability and this small field and the gelding op might be just the ticket.

Buick wont be overly tough on Morrocco on debut so even if he is much the best long term prospect he may well get beat here.

I dont know what to make of Anaconda to be honest. it appears he beat absolutely nothing in france but there were some decent ones in front (albeit a good few lengths).

4.30 Sugar Prince @ 3/1 bet365. might be lucky to get much better.

Small field, soft lead, race fit, stable in decent form this winter.

Red senor has been a bit disappointing to be honest and didnt really look to progress last year.

Chart rated 60. reckon we are better than that.

Samba Night could spoil the party if they try and lead but those tactics didnt work for his old connect last year so i dont think they will definitely try and lead. cant believe they paid 21 grand for it.

7.40 - Splendid Light 6/4 to Even money.

Just looks like really nice horse. big scopey galloping type of all the all weather tracks kempton will suit best.

Really liked Dynastic last time but was massively disapointing, had no excuse and was basically dreadful in a much worse race than this.

Niceofyoutotellme is the danger but got question marks to answer.

Plumbago blue seems to attracting money as all the stables runners seem to at kempton but they haven't been in the best form and hes had a few really well backed horses disappoint of late.


At the prices Sugar Prince rates as the best bet.
Report gman500 March 28, 2012 10:42 AM BST
Splendid light is the best bet now. @ 5-4 ish 7.40

I like Anaconda but price has long gone. 2.30

4.30 is tricky but if i had to make a pick it would be Chart at the prices. (looks like todat may not be the day though!) i'm not betting in this on
Report thehappysnapper March 28, 2012 11:03 AM BST
just got this niceofyoutotellme to beat i reckon.

should be fit enough first time from the lay off as he wouldnt want to risk injury.
Report Virgin March 28, 2012 12:36 PM BST
7.40 LAL BHAI small speculative e/w taken 66-1 BOG 365 bigger elsewhere ...

fair debut race (only 1 winner from that race) when slow away .... too prominent next time out and hopefully today's longer trip to bring out some improvement on more positive Sire stats

good luck
Report gman500 March 28, 2012 1:34 PM BST
Why surely need the run?
Report Virgin March 28, 2012 7:50 PM BST
thehappysnapper     / gman500

wd SPLENDID LIGHT
Report thehappysnapper March 29, 2012 10:26 AM BST
like peter Anders in the 7.55 kempton.

Grey Mirage is a crazy price on what he achieved last year. i guess he has been working the house because theres no way he should be so short. The form of his first run is absolute woeful. soft ground can probably excuse his 2nd poor run.

the worry i would have if i was backing him is he always travelled very well last year and didnt find much so he is probably the type of horse that works very well but when the button is pushed there aint much there.

The opposite applies to Peter Anders who fought hard last time to go down in the photo pulling 6 lengths clear of the 3rd who has won a handicap since of mark in the mid to low 60s. step up in trip should suit and go from the front as well. if comes down to scrap in the closing stages with the fav i sure we will come out on top.

Dartford has quite right been weak in the market. just needs further more like a mile and half, probably next time on handicap debut
Report thehappysnapper March 29, 2012 10:28 AM BST
also played Navaho Spirit at a big price.

steps back up in trip and was entitled to need the run last time. showed promise on debut last year.
Report thehappysnapper March 29, 2012 10:46 AM BST
its not a maiden but just going to mention the 4.40 and Koko Loca who lookss the bet of the day to me.

how many times do we see maiden winners on the all weather get stuffed on handicap debut like ed de gas. especially as the form of his win is very suspect, the odds on switched off and hung across the track and the rest were krapp.

The maiden that Koko Loca won has worked out well but the handicap he was 2nd in is just about as strong as it gets on the all weather. winner won a handicap next time, 3rd won a handicap next time, 6th won a maiden next time and even the 8th nearly won on his next start he was beaten miles.
Report gman500 March 29, 2012 12:02 PM BST
Taking you on Pal. Heard decent things about Grey Mirage and if fit will take all the beating. Ed de Gas looks better value than koko loca imo and Fav in 2.30 looks solid enough for me. Ryan has half the field!
Report thehappysnapper March 29, 2012 12:46 PM BST
yep i had guessed the dogs must have been barking about grey mirage the way the money came so quickly for it.

still happy to take it on.

surely one of us will have a win in that kempton maiden at least.

an extra furlong aint far enough imo legend but good luck.
Report gman500 March 29, 2012 2:20 PM BST
rare jumps bet - i'm backing benedictine in the hunter chase....3-1
Report Virgin March 29, 2012 8:05 PM BST
gman500      stick to the flat Wink

2 nice winners wd CoolCool
Report madhatters March 29, 2012 9:23 PM BST
WD Gman
UL THS
Report thehappysnapper March 30, 2012 8:35 AM BST
well gman.

smashed me 2-0.

reckon koko loca and even more so ed de gas are well in front of the handicapper.

ed de gas could be much better, still looks to be learning but hes got engine
Report sandnik March 30, 2012 10:30 AM BST
well done gman Cool
Could Cloudy Spirit 6:55 Wolves overturn fav, jumps against flat form hard to calculate but fav has already lost at oddson, looks one to take on

GL guys and will be watching for a comeback from thehappysnapper after yesterdays smashing by gman Wink
Report gman500 March 30, 2012 11:33 AM BST
Winters Hill 7.55 and Red Hand 4.00 double and singles today. Both short but can't see much opposition
Report thehappysnapper March 30, 2012 11:48 AM BST
not really interested in the maidens.

have backed the MJ fav in the 2nd last at lingfield but the price i took is long gone and dont think its great value now at 5/4.

looks like a nice horse tho
Report sandnik March 30, 2012 11:49 AM BST
7:55 Wolves
I can't help fancy Derivatives , won't be backing it but price is certainly tempting and can't see who else will set the pace, could be a soft lead available here and can see this horse stealing a few lengths off the last bend, surely it can hold off this field before downing tools
Report gman500 March 30, 2012 11:53 AM BST
tools will be down well before that imoLaugh
Report Virgin March 30, 2012 12:02 PM BST
5.55 Interesting price range on the top 3 on the card by Diktat

no strong view though Plain
Report sandnik March 30, 2012 12:04 PM BST
I hope you're right gman as I'm sitting it out Blush
Report sandnik March 30, 2012 12:07 PM BST
I'm on So You Think tomorrow so just killing time till the big one, hopefully Aidan has trained him up well enough WinkGrin
Report Virgin March 30, 2012 12:13 PM BST
4.00 LADY ROMANZA 40-1 BOG small e-w and hope all 8 run

I noticed Powell had Wind Star supported yesterday who ran as I expected but the fact that there was money for a poor one makes me wonder about this better bred one on a/w debut stepped up to a more suitable trip on Sire stats ....  I'm surprised Tim Easterby has let her go before trying on a/w Confused ...a bit of value hopefully Confused

good luck
Report Virgin March 30, 2012 4:08 PM BST
1st    4    Danube River     3.45     3.25     +3%
2nd    6    Lady Romanza     99.1     34     +182% ShockedHappy
3rd    8    Red Hand     1.81     1.73     +6%
Report gman500 March 30, 2012 4:16 PM BST
Well done virgin - 425,000 gns - i wouldn't pay 425 after that run for the fav
Report sandnik March 30, 2012 4:31 PM BST
well spotted Virgin
Report sandnik March 30, 2012 4:36 PM BST
I've gone banker Oh Right 4:40 Newcastle in combo's, next race, would secure my best for the day
Report madhatters March 30, 2012 4:37 PM BST
WD Virgy Grin
Report Virgin March 30, 2012 4:46 PM BST
Ta Silly

sandnik    Cool  wd & gl with the others
Report sandnik March 30, 2012 4:48 PM BST
cheers mate Grin
Report Virgin March 30, 2012 8:32 PM BST
sandnik Ghost Train wd
Report sandnik March 30, 2012 8:37 PM BST
thought Derivatives on that one
got April Fool last race and then hoping So You Think for Dubai World Cup
Report Virgin March 30, 2012 8:52 PM BST
Ah sorry that was my scriblings Blush
Report thehappysnapper March 30, 2012 11:05 PM BST
well doen virgin.

thought it was going to win turning for home.



can't back a winner myself at the moment even the 2/1 into 8/11 ones arent even looking like winning
Report sandnik March 31, 2012 10:52 AM BST
Glen Moss 2:55 Kempton
My maiden pick for the day, perhaps the time off will break the habit of coming second, don't know much about it, but looks fair on my figures, keep plugging all, theres plenty of winners out there Happy
Report thehappysnapper March 31, 2012 11:36 AM BST
looks the bet in the race now at the price sandnik i agree.

i had a nibble on Impel but that was at 14/1. reckon its a terrible bet now.

The fav was very eye catching first time out last year and will be tough to beat.

not really sure how to play the race but have traded out for my stake on impel at these prices.
Report thehappysnapper March 31, 2012 11:54 AM BST
dont really get why sir graham wade is so sort in the donny maiden.

so much guess work at the moment with all of them having their first runs at 3 but on last years form i would have Theturnofthesun as jolly.

really good effort at goodwood, just looked like it took a while to organise himself for a few strides coming down hill at which point the leader, who had set a steady pace, managed to kick away.

the more interesting newcomers have been weak in the market so far.
Report sandnik March 31, 2012 12:33 PM BST
Glem Moss has lost a leg, now trading at 9 on Betfair, if that can still win would be surprised, somebody seems to know something

Sir Graham Wade seems to hold the edge from a time point of view, Kaafel has TS 93 in the racing post, can't see that. I'd expect he's a fairly genuine fav, not like some

good luck today Happy
Report Virgin March 31, 2012 12:58 PM BST
2.55

Choice Words 14-1 BOG

His debut was pleasing enough in 3rd good time on the day despite being green and trouble IR trainer in good form and hopefully will be in a position to challenge with a stronger ride today

good luck today
Report Virgin March 31, 2012 1:02 PM BST
Glen Moss does look a big price considering the grades tried at confident layers Shocked decent horse may not be so good on a/w my only negative Confused
Report thehappysnapper March 31, 2012 2:58 PM BST
that will do.

well done glen moss backers
Report Virgin March 31, 2012 3:01 PM BST
Sandwik wd with  Glen Moss
Report seeyouthen121 March 31, 2012 3:02 PM BST
well done. great price Wink
Report sandnik March 31, 2012 5:00 PM BST
good result, need to win the World Cup and that will be the icing on the cake Happy
Report Virgin March 31, 2012 5:09 PM BST
^ gl
Report sandnik April 1, 2012 9:34 AM BST
So You Think dismal run Cry

The Bell horse Born To Surprise 2:10 Doncaster does look the likely winner, probably would want to have seen a better show from the recent Bell runners to be playing at around 5/4

Its worth noting that the a/w horses are doing well enough switched to the turf, so that should carry on and throw up a few relative outsiders for a while. Tappanappa 4:30 Doncaster looks overpriced after a good a/w run, also Junoob in the same race so hopefully haven't gone for wrong one

good luck guys
the flat is here, how can we lose now? Grin
Report thehappysnapper April 1, 2012 10:00 AM BST
people falling over themselves trying to back a horse at 11/10 that hasnt even got the best form in the race.

legend u can't let it annoy you its just the way it works now. the botti horse yesterday was a silly price at 7/2 or whatever it was the night before and never going to last till the morning.

you cant beat them so join them, if u see a price you like early u just have to grab it.
Report thehappysnapper April 1, 2012 10:02 AM BST
Sequoia has jsut got the best form. the yard are in flying form.

simples
Report sandnik April 1, 2012 10:28 AM BST
Star Date looks to be the one that is definitely overpriced 48 on Betfair at the moment
Report thehappysnapper April 1, 2012 12:25 PM BST
but they wouldn't legend they jsut wouldnt price up the races like the old days.

pre-betfair you didnt get prices on maidens until 10 mins before the off.
Report sandnik April 1, 2012 9:13 PM BST
My pick for tomoorow Trail Blaze 3:15 Redcar

GL guys
Report Virgin April 1, 2012 10:02 PM BST
sandnik   

1st and well backed 2nd wd
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