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for the new year (2)
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Very bad luck Robster, whether your selections win or lose it's always interesting to read your write ups and why you select your horses. Keep up the good work mate and well done.
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Bet day 50. 1pt E.W. Ginger Grey 14.10 Market Rasen 13-2 B365 (4-1+ feature race offer) BOG write up to follow....
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With Market Rasen getting the go ahead I am prepared to have a small bet on David O’Meara’s Ginger Grey, ridden by Denis O’Regan.
Today Ginger Grey makes his handicap debut over hurdles, and in all honesty his starting mark of 106 could prove to be fairly lenient, with a fair few of his opponents looking highly exposed in the main. However you wouldn’t exactly be drawn to this horse by his pedigree being by Bertolini, but Milton Bradley and Jack Berry I’m certain will vouch that sometimes flat sprinters can make up into reasonable animals in this sphere, and David O’meara has obviously decided to go down this route with Ginger Grey, who’s best form was only up to 7F on the level. He made his debut over hurdles in an ordinary big field maiden in November at Newcastle, and after being at the rear of the field for majority of the contest jumping big and novicey, did make some head way through the field turning in, but was never going to trouble the leaders with O’Regan letting him come home under a hand ride. He was turned out 14 days later at Doncaster, and that day only found the favourite and his stable companion superior, again given a patient ride anchored off the pace, plugging on nicely to fill a place sticking to his task well. Lto I’m sure delighted connections, ridden more prominently to the pace jumped very well, and Imo never came out of second gear to win his big field maiden, on a slower surface than he’d encountered in his previous races. This will be only his 4th run over hurdles, but looks to have improved significantly with each run in this discipline to date, and at only 5yrs old at least has the scope for further improvement than many of his exposed rivals. He goes right handed for the first time over hurdles, and Imo looking at his races he looks to prefer leading over is hurdles on his right leg, and going this way could well suit. The O’Meara yard continue to progress, and the yard are still ticking along very nicely form wise. Denis O’Regan has done very well for the yard with his rides in the last 12 month or so, and in that same said period has ridden very well around Market Rasen. His price does reflect his chance, but Ladbrokes seem to be the only firm that aren’t prepared to take a chance on an O’Meara gamble, which is not beyond the realms of possibility. |
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How strange Rob.....just looked...I backed both of those yesterday with 2 winners ...in E.W. Trebs
 & E.W.acc.......G.L. M8 |
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Unlucky mange both not beaten to far for a very nice bet for you, still would have been ok with the place cash tho, nice one.
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Bet for day 52. 2pts E.W. Nampour 15.45 Taunton 25-1 lads BOG...write up to follow...
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Tomorrow’s 15.40 at Taunton looks a nice race to play in for the E.W. punters, as the presence of Sire de Grugy gives the betting a very lopsided appearance, as no doubt he will take a high proportion of the book. If this race has not come too soon he must have a big say now dropping back down in class, but he did appear to have a fairly hard race on Saturday, but connections have him turned out quickly to try and exploit his mark, no doubt before the handicapper heaps on the poundage.
Another in the race I think is looking potentially nicely handicapped, is the now Colin Tizzard trained Nampour, ridden by the up and coming Brendan Powell. When trained for Terry Warner by Phillip Hobbs, very early in his career showed signs that connections may well have a horse of the Rooster Booster class on their hands. For whatever reason that particular potential was never realised, and he never really took it even to the next level if truth be known, looking to be regressing before injury kept him off track for 604 days. As alluded to since then has had a change of scenery, and started life off for the Tizzard’s in a 20F class 3 event at Ffos Las. That day Imo he was far from disgraced, looking a little keen under Joe Tizzard early did settle to travel powerfully just in behind the pace, and was hanging on the coat tails of the leaders turning in, with his absence well and truly telling as the pace lifted on the run for home. The assessor had dropped him 9lb for his come back run, and has seen fit to give him an extra 4lbs of respite in view of that run, which he looked to well and truly need. One of a few positives regarding his chances tomorrow is the trip, and current connections bring him back 3F in trip from his reappearance to 17F, which looks on paper to be his optimum. Another is the lad they have up, and Brendan Powell junior is able to loosen the load by an extra 5lbs, and seems to already have a very good association with the yard in his short career so far. The third and final major factor is the form of the yard, having looked a little in and out in February have certainly struck a rich vein of form very recently, and if the last couple of day’s are an insight of what’s to come, their entries should be given a considerate look in the betting. If this horse has retained a semblance of his old ability, and does come on for his run he could be a very interesting contender off in theory a mark of 116, and given the fact he was entered in a slightly easier race on Wednesday at Ludlow, they must at least be optimistic of a decent show off his feather weight in tomorrow’s contest. |
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Result day 50.
Ginger Grey Un Pl -2pts Profit / Loss -2pts Total 235 3/4pts |
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tipped up too early to tell, but punted on the off 14.0 BSP to remain of interest therob' ?
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Bet day 53. 3pts win Malin Head 16.15 Ludlow 5-2 B365 BOG...
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A conditionals event at 16.15 sees the return of arguably one of the biggest gambles of the season in Marlin Head, and was backed like an insider trader trying to buy shares in a company before flotation Lto, and Imo never at any stage looked like letting his supporters down.
He did catch my attention that day in the manner he had been campaigned, but I for one did not jump on the gravy train in mid January, much to my dismay. After qualifying for his mark of 73 with 3 abysmal runs over hurdles at prices of 50’ and 100-1 twice, proceeded to be backed from around 16-1 in the morning to 9-4 on course, finding the “ahem” required improvement from somewhere to win a 21F soft ground chase at Folkestone a tad cosily Imo. That day he jumped very well in the soft ground, looking to enjoy things out in front, and when Pete The Feat (a dour stayer in his own grade) came to serve it up to him jumping the last, he found plenty and was pulling away again close home. The handicapper has raised him 6lb for that run, and Nathan Sweeny can negate half of that penalty, but I think the way he was punted Lto the stable must think he is even further a head of this afternoon’s mark. Today he’s running on much better ground, but being by presenting you would only assume that can be positive, and stepping up a couple of furlongs in trip Imo will bring even more improvement out, and having looked at his rivals I personally can’t get him beat. The 5-2 on offer is a hard one to figure out as regards value, he may drift slightly, but in the same token may again be smashed off the boards given his highly unexposed profile. |
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Result day 52.
Nampour Un Pl -4pts Profit / Loss -4pts Total 231 3/4pts |
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Good luck with Malin Head. Personally don't like to back horses that have won last time out ( having shown very poor form previously) - and then running(as today)- in a higher class race.
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Bet day 55. 1ptE.W. Cerium 15.45 Warwick 12-1 generally BOG (B365 4-1+offer)…
Having put Cerium up in mid January I’m prepared to give him another go back at Warwick, and although he ran abysmal Lto in that race at Catterick I’m convinced that was not his true running, and as a consequence has been cut a fair bit of slack by the assessor. He is now able to run off a mark of 106, but it’s fairly hard to work out how much ability he has actually retained with only 8 appearances in 4 years, having taken in 2 gold cups and 2 grand Nationals along with a grade 2 hurdle within that time period, clearly having his problems with the consistently long absences. By backing him today you are still really in the dark regarding his current ability, but has dropped to a mark that makes it too hard to get away from his chances today, given he has proven form around the course and has a fairly good record in decent ground. The Neil King yard have had a few running well of late, and is showing signs he is getting back to some form. Although Cerium is a risky betting proposition he is contesting an extreme distance with a very light weight of 9st-08lbs, which Imo is usually half the battle in these types of events, and at his double figure price is surely worth the risk. |
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Result day 53.
Malin Head Un Pl -3pts Profit / Loss -3pts Total 228 3/4pts |
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Bet day 56. 2pts E.W. Eyre Square 15.45 Newcastle 6-1 Generally(13-2 VCbet). 1pt E.W. Captain Dimitri 14.15 Lingfield 12-1 generally(14’s JC) + ½ pt E.W. double both BOG….
Having looked at the cards early evening scratching my head somewhat I have revisited a couple of races again, and have persuaded myself into a couple of smallish bets, those being Captain Dimitri in Lingfields 14.25, and Eyre Square in the Eider Chase Newcastle’s feature race at 15.25. I will start with the Eider, and hopefully with today’s better ground it will not become the war of attrition it proved to be in last years contest, with the 3 finishers eventually limping over the line in desperate ground. I have always been very sweet on Mister Marker making up into a decent stayer in this type of event, and if the going this year had mirrored the previous would have had him on side like a flash, but just don’t think he will appreciate the underfoot conditions today as well as some others. Eyre Square is the one that I am more keen on to cope with underfoot conditions this afternoon, and has a very good record on a decent surface, and I’m fairly sure this race is just the type connections have been campaigning him for. He has also shown an appreciation for Newcastle throughout his career, and although could only manage 4th on course Lto behind Morgan Be, I can readily excuse that run. In that race had jumped particularly well until turning down the side of the course on the final circuit where he missed 3 fences out consecutively and never looked to jump with any fluency thereafter, as a consequence was spared anything like a hard race, and in hindsight possibly a good enough prep for the main event. He does look to hold Mister Marker and Captain Americo at the weights on their borders national run, and I’m certain now stepping back up in trip on a decent surface his true colours will be on display this afternoon, having the uncanny ability of bouncing back very quickly from a poor run. Now onto the sprint series final, and David Evans has been a huge supporter during the build up and is 3 handed as a result, but do think his best chance rests with the ultra consistent Captain Dimitri. He looks to have been given a very nice berth to jump from given his prominent style, and Mathew Cosham again takes the ride, and with it a crucial 5lbs off. I’m fairly convinced that there are a few in the race that are better suited to 5F, and think that if the pace is generous without being break neck, more than a fair few of these will struggle to get by this very tenacious horse on the run for home. He runs off 65 today his highest mark for a while, but considering he was running fairly off 75 around this time last year, he may still be fairly treated on the balance of things and should be involved with the run of the race. |
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Nice write up as always there Rob. Unlucky yesterday, if only he'd got going a few strides earlier!
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Result day 55.
Cerium Pl 6-1 (12's adv) + 1 1/2 pts Profit / Loss + 1 1/2pts Total 229 3/4pts Defo Blade, very unlucky. 1000's in running I believe, bet someone was sweating close home. |
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^^^ Total 230 1/4pts
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best of luck rob,ive gone against you in the eider with imcentivise.
had a bit at 16s each-way in the week,when the books were paying a quarter 4 places. hope it stays on for a place. |
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All the best Rob
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Bet day 57. 1pt E.W. Massini Sunset (18’s SJ)16-1 generally..(B365 4-1+ offer) BOG….
Today’s 15.10 at Fontwell is a race that I’ve decided to concentrate my attentions on, and believe I have came up with a horse that has a half decent E.W. shout, that horse being Massini Sunset. He habitually has a poor first half of the season, and usually need’s his run’s before the turn of the year, before having a better time of things January through to spring. Although some of his recent form figures appear to be uninspiring, those runs have not been without a degree of promise considering, and Imo has had a better build up to the New Year than in a few previous seasons. After well and truly needing his first run back over C/D in November he went on to run a screamer over 20F in a class 3 at Chepstow in December, staying on well up the Chepstow hill, with a fair level of form lines materialising from that contest. He then ran a couple of weeks later at Exeter, where he was held up further back than usual, but after making some mid race headway just flattened out, and Imo his strengths would not have been entirely suited to that particular ride. He did run a fair race at the turn of the year in January behind the impressive Marodima, who was allowed to stroll into an uncontested lead, and was obviously a cut above which his mark now proves. In his final run at Lingfield after being out paced mid race, did stick on well in the closing stages as an unconsidered 25-1 shot, with a couple coming out and franking the form since. Massini Sunset has now been dropped by the handicapper to his last winning mark, and was runner up behind Rateable Value in this contest last year of an 11lb higher mark than this afternoon, and is 13lb better off with his conqueror for 3 ½ lengths. He also has a 16lb pull for his pipe opener of the season with Magot De Grugy, and on a line through Niceonefrankie there shouldn’t be too much between them. The distance does look at the outside of his stamina, but has shaped like that on a going day he will get it, especially on this better ground which he has a fair record on, and could prove to be a reasonable E.W. poke all things considered. |
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Result day 56
Eyre Square Un Pl -4pts Captain Dimitri Un Pl -2pts Double Lost -1pt Profit / Loss -7pts Total 223 1/4pts |
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TTT
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Bet day 63. 1pt E.W. Passato 16-1 15.10 Newbury BVic BOG... write up to follow....
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The Greatwood Gold Cup sees a nice little pot on offer before the mayhem of Cheltenham, and a as you would expect it has attracted entries from a few of the bigger yards, however I think Passato from the Jo Davis yard could be capable of a bold showing in this line up, getting one over on the big boys in doing so.
The highlight of this horse’s career was back in 2010 when winning the Lord Mildmay Listed Chase off 133 at Newton Abbot, and in truth struggled of his revised mark thereafter, as well as other marks in the higher 130’s. He was however given a chance on seasonal debut by the handicapper, and almost capitalised on being dropped under his last winning mark, only going down a neck on course in November. Today he run’s off a mark of 134, and all of his last few run’s he’s ran with credit, considering that he usually does not spark into life spring through to summer, and is still capable of further improvement given his age. The weather has been fairly clement for this time of year, and I wouldn’t be surprised if the described going of good on the chase course could ride even faster. The quicker the ground the better for this lad, and he does look different gravy on a decent surface. The trip should be ok, having won that listed event over 22F, and ran some sound races up to this trip, and it does appear to be within his range, and does hold an entry in the Kim Muir at Cheltenham. He could well need another month or so into the year to be at his best, but given his overall record on decent ground and current mark Imo it’s worth the risk at his price. |
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Result day 57.
Massini Sunset Un Pl - 2pts Profit / Loss - 2pts Total 221 1/4pts Not being fully up to speed with web/net abbreviations what does TTT mean ?? from the above poster |
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Puts it to the top rob
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Cheers Chelsea Girl.
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Extra bet day 63. 1 pt E.W. Quousko De L'isop 16.10 Newbury 25-1 generally BOG + 1/2pt E.W. double with Passato 25's & 14's with B365 write up to follow....
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Although Quousko De L'isop does not strike me as a horse that is guaranteed to want a trip this far, connections seem to be persevering , and with him not having too much racing throughout his career as well as tries at the trip, I’m going to give them the benefit of the doubt regarding his ability to stay it.
After winning a couple of bumpers back to back in early 2010 he was never seen again until December last year, presumably with serious injury considering the time scale. That day over Uttoxeter’s 21F in testing conditions had them strung out like the proverbial washing along way out, and it was not until they turned into the straight that his lengthy absence told, but did stick on nicely enough despite being beaten a long way. He has run very credibly in his few starts since the turn of the year, and Imo has steadily improved with each race this season., and Lto was in the process of running a very nice race. He was just about to be overhauled before falling 2 out, but that was giving weight to some unexposed potentially decent novices, and Imo ran above today's allocated mark of 116. The Rachel Hobbs yard looks to be turning a corner form wise, with plenty running well at present including some of her un fancied ones. Aiden Coleman is back in the plate, and in the last 12 months for the yard has had 11 rides, and although he has only ridden 1 winner, he’s got another 8 of those into the frame, and seems to have a reasonable record on course in the said period. Today’s contest looks wide open, and with nothing Imo having a stand out chance he may well be involved at very big odds, if the first time cheek pieces have the desired effect. |
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10.5 the place Quo on here. WD
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More profit, well done.
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Nice extra one Rob
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Result day 63.
Passato Un Pl -2pts Quousko De L'isop Pl 25's +5 1/4pts Double Lost -1pt Profit / Loss + 2 1/4pts Total 223 1/2pts |
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Bet for day 66. 1pt E.W. Clash Duff 15.30 Exeter 10-1 Whill BOG write up to follow....
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Tomorrow’s 15.30 at Exeter, the Devon National, where I’m sure the likes of Ammunition and Drybrook Bedouin will once again have been target at this feature event, and along with many others look to hold reasonably strong claims. The one I believe that’s been overlooked at his price of 10-1 is the Jeremy Scott trained Clash Duff, and as racing goes has very little mileage on the clock, but shapes very much like an extreme test is just what he requires.
After coming from the P2P scene contesting 3 mile events, I’m sure connections would have known his debut under rules over 21F would have been an inadequate test of stamina, and ran as his odds would have suggested. However Nto I’m also fairly certain the yard would have been surprised, as well as delighted with his performance on course over 20F, and it’s fair to say that if Matt Griffiths had not have been hell bent on settling for second a fair way out, with stronger handling he could have easily won it. He then was stepped up to 3 miles at Huntingdon, and it took him all bar 10 yards of that 3 miles to master a fair yard stick in Court Red Handed, pulling well clear of the remainder in doing so, and looking very much like he would improve with racing. A couple of weeks or so ago at Warwick he was stepped up in trip further, but that was on decent good ground, and although he was staying on stoutly after becoming out paced on a couple of occasions during that contest, I’m certain he would have been closer with more testing underfoot conditions. Tomorrow he returns right handed, as well as stepping up further in trip, and he does appear suited to this course, and the ground looking more to his liking than Lto. The yard also has an excellent record on course this last 12 months (33%), and have a reasonably good life time strike rate. Connections appear to have taken their time with him during this campaign, and I’d be amazed if he couldn’t get competitive off this sort of mark, and further progress through the staying ranks in the fullness of time looks assured. |
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Very informative analysis rob...im on
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Great stuff Robster, knew it was a good thing when you and Well Chief both put it up!
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therobster strikes again, positively delightful stuff. Surely in the top 3 of forumites?
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