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sam84
21 Oct 11 11:52
Joined:
Date Joined: 22 Jun 03
| Topic/replies: 61 | Blogger: sam84's blog
Is there a way of setting minimum odds when laying at BSP?

Betfair only seems to allow setting maximum odds when laying at BSP for some reason - but I need to lay at minimum odds.

For example, if horse is 6.4 at BSP then happy to lay, but at 6.2 at BSP then don't want to lay.

Would be very grateful if somebody can please point me in the right direction? Many thanks
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Report longbridge • October 21, 2011 1:36 PM BST
Can't be done.

As you've found, you can only set the max not min odds you're prepared to take on the lay BSP bet itself.

And (unlike people who have similarly bizarre** requirements to place non-BSP bets only at a worse price than is currently available in the market) you can't use a tool to place the bet only when the price is right as by definition the BSP is only known once it's too late to take it.


** OK, it's not really bizarre.  You're trying to use the SP as an indication of market sentiment about the horse, and so tell you something you don't already know about its chances of winning.  Or something like that.
Report grendel • October 21, 2011 1:43 PM BST
what if it was your stake that would have brought it below your required threshold, multiply this anomoly with everyones bets and you can see how it would corrupt their software, the options of setting minimum odds to back or maximum odds to lay don't create an oxymoron wheras the other way around does
Report swift-tuttle • October 21, 2011 2:48 PM BST
grendel

In the context of Betfair SP getting closer to Industry SP at the forefront of the market
would you agree with me that,
when people go on about efficient markets on here that

1) it does not equate with the fact that bookmakers make money AND

2) in general, the fancied horse must be overbet (i.e. shorter than their true price)
Report sam84 • October 21, 2011 3:00 PM BST
Thanks guys, yes Longbridge you've got it spot on about the thinking behind my question

Cheers
Report grendel • October 21, 2011 4:22 PM BST
Swifty, I don't really buy into this view that the markets have become so efficient that its difficult to make money. How can you know if a stand alone market is close to 100% efficient, you can't any more than you can say if a certain horse was value just because it won.  The only thing you can judge it on is long term and that would naturally even out to close to 100% efficiency anyway.  A 3/1 shot will long term win around 25% of the time but in amongst that will be lots of good value and lots of bad vaue that cancel each other out.  On your second point I think the favourites will always be overbet as you say, mainly because a certain percentage of punting money will always be chasing money, and that will disproportionately go on favourites.
Report swift-tuttle • October 21, 2011 9:00 PM BST
thanks grendel

surely the stats should reflect this, rest of the evening to be spent on horseracebase I think
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