Plumpton 5-20 Value in betting the odds on jolly!

The watering in Plumpton doesn't looked as if its worked out too well as the ground is really quick (thus the tiny fields). The bumper has only 3 and surely the ex Irish Point To Point winner Finnegan Paddy with Richard Johnson booked looks to have this at his mercy. If he handles the quick ground he'll be very hard to beat. He's by Moscow Society,the concern is arguably his best run in defeat came on heavy ground in Nenagh. He was 2nd to a serious horse  HANDY ANDY who subsequently joined Colin Tizzard and beat a smart Pipe horse in a Newbury Novice hurdle before pulling up in an Aintree Grade 1.His Newbury win earned a 130 Racing Post Rating. A 100 rating would win this bumper. FINNEGAN PADDY did win on better ground after that when coasting home in Monksgrange by 7Lengths.
This looks dire,for me the 2nd favourite is decidely moderate and regressed in Towcester,maybe the longer trip will suit,but I  think its not much good. That leaves the cheap purchase  MAD GEORGE who might be a bigger danger than the 2nd fav,although costing just 2K doesn't set the pulse racing.

I thought FINNEGAN PADDY was a 1/4 chance,yet he's been available at 1/2 and is 1.47 on here just now in the Shadow Boxing Market....His Nenagh run wins this in a hack ! THe yard is flying and has a great strike rate in bumpers first time especially with ex Irish pointers !  He's 4 from 22 in bumpers this new National Hunt season a 22% strike rate ! I've definitely seen worse 1/2 chances and think he's a moral..Of course the market always vital with this yard. If you see this go 1.68 ,there would be concern. So unless MAD GEORGE is very smart looks a bet for those who like to lump on the skinny un's ! [;)]