Wetherby 5.30 Amazing Spirit 25/1

An average novice hurdle, Strong Knight and Descaro entitled to be favourites on previous hurdles form to their name.

Of the jump breds, High Hoylander has chances on 4th to Risaal at Market Rasen last Feb, but well beaten three times since. Teals Star and Turbolinas are lighty raced and won or placed in bumpers / hurdles already. All three could improve but their time figures are ordinary so far, even for this grade.

Plenty of those at the head of the market have run on the flat and always a temptation to go with the one with best flat form in autumn novice hurdles whilst the ground still riding fast enough.

Ex-Irish Amazing Star has marginally the best flat time figures ahead of Descaro and King Zeal as well as being officially highest rated by the handicapper .

Declan Carroll doesn’t run many over jumps these days, but has a smart strike rate of 3-6 with just two horses, Yahrab and Spice Bar (like Amazing Star, owned by Kevin McConnell), this season and only ran Spice Bar in 2010-11 over jumps for a 2-4 win record.

Carroll’s record in novice hurdles since 2000 is better than it looks. Only 3 winners (inc 33/1 and 9/1) from 45 runners, but no less than 14 others were placed

The 14 seconds/thirds included 10 at healthy prices of 14/1, 16/1, 20/1 x 2, 33/1 x 3, 50/1, 66/1 and 100/1

That’s a remarkable record of 17/45 (38%) win/placed despite only  9 of the 45 runners starting in single figure odds.

Of the 24 individual horses he has run in novice hurdles, Carroll got exactly half of them to win or place in these events at some stage.

Amazing Star already had 4 runs in big field novice hurdles in Ireland 2009/2010 where he was hacked round in rear each start for John Carr, but from what  can be seem from videos,  jumped adequately enough, so at least has some experience. And given Carroll’s record with novice hurdlers, can only expect him to have been well schooled by current trainer.

Obvious stamina doubt for Amazing Star given that best flat form is around a mile, but with the ground riding Good, this will be the time for this horse to stay 2m if he is going to at all, with a flat track to help. Would not necessarily call Wetherby an easy or fast track, get the impression you need to stay well there, so again a worry on the stamina front.

Also a negative, probable that Amazing Star prefers a little cut in the ground. But Carroll already done the job with a similar type in Yahrab this summer and presumably he is confident that Amazing Star will get home otherwise why try jumping with him again?

Described as quirky on occasions, would appear that jockeys use the whip sparingly on this horse and that he doesn’t respond that well for a hard ride. The new whip rules could actually work in his favour here as the stick isn’t going to make him run much faster, but he does respond to hands and heels.

Not a negative that Amazing Star only ran 6 days ago, Declan Carroll would have had to make the entry for today’s race last Thursday  morning, so must have had this novice hurdle in mind before sending him to Wolverhampton. Held up in a moderately run race, Seb Sanders hands never left the reins, the whip never came into use and he clearly did not have a hard race there. Carroll has made no other entries for this horse, either flat or jumps, so this entry would look to have something of a plan about it (or could be just a spin round a relatively local track to get a handicap mark!)

Barry Keniry has a decent 6-40 strike rate for the yard (including 3-6 on this owners Spice Bar). Amazing Star often slowly away in his flat races and held up so guess Keniry will be asked to hold him again up in mid-division or even further back and delay his move as late as possible if still in touch in the long straight.

Amazing Star has won or placed on 10 of his 28 flat starts, so whilst not being in obviously great form last three, he did put up his best time figure of the season at Ripon on 13th August, recent enough to suggest he hasn’t lost his way yet and to suggest that 25/1 - 28/1 is way too big for the fastest horse in the race, stamina being the big question mark.

Strong Knight and High Hoylander (both described as keen types) look the likely pace setters without haring off in front, so a reasonable gallop looks likely suggesting the best horse will win.

Hope this runs like a mongoose and gl if you play