My selections today, opinions welcomed.

Stakes are between 0 and 5 to give a guide on strength. 

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4.10 Goodwood

Nayef's offspring are 5-131 (3.8%) first-time-out, which is a large enough sample size to illustrate a very strong need for experience as one of their characteristics. His offspring at 6-22 (22.2%) over nine furlongs, the trip which AAZIF faces on his second run today. Richard Hills I think is also slightly aware of easing newcomers into the game, and rarely gives them the full treatment when they run on debut. This is backed up by his main average being greater than his stats for  first-time-out rides.  John Dunlop also rarely has a first-time-out winner, he is 28-554 (5.1%) with runners that fit in that category, but his main average is just under 13%.

Aside from the winner, he was pretty much the last horse off the bridle on his debut, clearly travelling like a horse with great ability. He seemed to get outpaced when he was asked for his effort, but the way he travelled indicates to me that he would appreciate the step up in trip.  As already mentioned, on his breeding on his sire's side, the step up in trip of an extra two furlongs to nine furlongs is a big positive.  This potential preference for the step up in trip is also exhibited on the dam's side as AAZIF is a half brother to three winners including the high-class stayer Akmal and two further winners, one over thirteen furlongs and one over fourteen furlongs.


The form of that race has not worked out brilliantly, but none of the horses near the top of the race have run since, and I think AAZIF was not illustrating his full potential on debut, and there is a lot more to come.


John Dunlop has entered AAZIF in the Derby next year, which would indicate he has high aims as a 3yo, but he is also entered in Racing Post Trophy, indicating that he is thought of as a smart 2yo.  I think it is also significant that he is John Dunlop's only entry in the race.


4pts win on AAZIF at 11-4 with Stan James.

More to follow, will update later.

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Update here at 12.20.

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My second selection runs in the 5.50 at Goodwood.

MAN OF GOD may not look like an obvious selection here, but I think the drop back in trip could see him in a better light today.  His siblings were mainly successful over the twelve furlong trip, so I am really expecting a better performance over today's trip.

If you ignore his last two runs, his two seconds behind the William Haggas pair Dubawi Dancer and Lordofthehouse would put him well in contention here.  Since Dubawi Dancer faced MAN OF GOD he has gone up 20lbs. Lordofthehouse has also been raised 18lbs since he faced my selection today.  The third has won since and gone up 7lbs, and the fourth has won since, also being raised 7lbs.

John Gosden continues in great form, and has the best record at Goodwood from any trainer in the race.  I think the odds of 7-1 available with Stan James and Ladbrokes are fair, and worth a little each-way bet.


1.25pts each-way on MAN OF GOD at 7-1.


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3.10 Goodwood

This looks a very open race, but I think the odds available about LOVAGE are too generous to ignore.

She has ran in three fairly good maidens and performed creditably in all three.  On the first she was too slowly away to play a part in the finish, but ran on really well.  On the latter occasion she  did not seem fully comfortable around Epsom. On the back of her second run she looks really well-handicapped, effectively racing off 65 today with her promising jockey taking 3lbs off.

There are a couple of horses with strong form in opposition, but I think at the odds of 8-1 LOVAGE is worth a small win bet.


1.5pts win on LOVAGE at 8-1 taking BOG