Racing Post Topspeed figures

I am a huge fan when it comes to using Topspeed for laying. Trumpet Major, for example, had no right to go off fave yesterday after narrowly going down to Talwar in a fast-run race and then winning a slow-run race by six lengths.
I would not consider laying a 70+ last-time-out horse in a Class4, so therefore would not back one that is 70-.

Thanks Tilted. Do you only consider last time out speed figures?

I give a greater weight to the most recent figure IF it is over the same trip as its next race.
Also you will find horses often run higher figures at Newmarket, Hamilton, Salisbury and Newbury than elsewhere.
I think this is because the base standard time is incorrect or movement of running rail that has not been allowed for.
So if a horse runs 62, 66, 56, 68, 85, 65 (you will often find the 85 is from a 'dodgy' track).
You can spot non-triers on their hcap debuts. Sir Mark Prescott typically -- 42, 28, 11, 70.

Thanks mate. Really useful.

tilted - are you sure that Trumpet Major is a good example?

I thought he ran a good speed figure when hacking up by 6 lengths .....

a good guide is the class of race..0-60 0-70...as speed figures r measured in pounds..any horse running above the top rated horses hcap mark is not a good lay...e.g if top weight horse is rated 65 and ur horse has speed figures above that on one of its last 3 runs then it is not a good lay..more a good bet as it consistantly runs a speed figure above its rating..of course weight brings things back in line...been layin for years and find the more negatives i can find with a horse the more confident i will be to lay it...but only at a price..pizzeti(4.45 folk) was good example today as someone eluded to mark prescotts who r always overbet...with no form and a speed figure of 17 on grass it was a huge lay at 4.2 or under...and not surprisingly it finished last...doesnt happen all the time but it traded 3.6 after 50 meters..crazy...

ykick - very interesting stuff - I use Mordin to calculate my own speed figures - I find my best use for them is to indicate how a race has been run (very often just watching a race can be misleading) - in your experience do you think using Mordin (who does not advocate using weight) is any advantage over Topspeed or vice versa?

Also, Topspeed give a rating on grass of 3 to Pizzeti so where does 17 come from?

I would appreciate any comments on speed figures as I am relatively new to them ...... read Mordin .....

most people cant read the topspeed ratings properly,a few tips.

1)lto rating is irrelvant,look to the last 12 months rating
2)only go of ratings with similiar going
2)same goes for distance
3)track type

if you cross of the higher rated horses earned on different dist/going,you get alot nearer the fastest horse

most people cant read the topspeed ratings properly,a few tips.

1)lto rating is irrelvant

i agree with hill that a horse can only produce its best speed figure if all conditions fall in its favour..that been distance, going, weight, class, track, draw, and an even pace....i only use speed figures as a final nail in the coffin of a weak favourite..i would not live and die by speed ratings...to many track bias these days..to much watering and moving of rails....the form book is slowly becoming futile....:-0000