Longchamp Draw

the stalls are numbered reverse to ours so low on the left as you look in front of the stalls

low on the round course.

22 in The Arc.Ideal draw would be about 5-10.Those drawn very wide like 16-22 have to stay wide for over a furlong so can't break well and come straight over.If they do,they risk being slung out.Very soft ground likely so shouldn't go a strong pace in theory.Likely that plenty with a chance in the straight so those at the rear will need red sea parting to get a clear run.

I haven't checked myself, but the man on the purple says.  Age and draw are the vital statistics for victory: 13 of the last 16 winners have been three-year-olds and 14 of those last 16 were drawn in stall 7 or lower

Between 2000 and May this year there have been 16 races with 12 runners or more over the arc c/d, not a big sample but the difference in number of first 4 placers in these races against expected number via summed s.p's is below:-

1     -0.1  (16)
2     1.27  (16)
3     1.38  (16)
4     1.59  (16)
5     0.08  (16)
6     0.38  (16)
7     -1.2  (16)
8     -2.1  (16)
9     -0.2  (16)
10     -0.0  (16)
11     0.03  (16)
12     -1.0  (16)
13     0.47  (10)
14     -1.3  (6)
15     0.52  (6)
16     -0.3  (5)
17     -0.5  (3)
18     0.95  (2)
19     0.45  (2)

would you say low in the 5f race??

no real strong bias on the 5f course that i can detect, if anything you dont want to be drawn 7-11 inc.

strangely the third widest draw wins twice as often as it should do in 41 races since 2000 (Won 11 races)

just thought being wide out would be a disadvantage

Is that the draw on racing post race cards site?

The trouble is the larger the field size, the less examples to go by and those have less chance statistically as they have more opponents to beat

In races of more than 9 runners comparing expected no. winners to actual in 3 draw groups are:-

Draws 1-6 7.9(exp), 11(act)
      7-11 8.2(exp), 4(act)
      12+ 2.8(exp), 4(act)

by the way, stalls positions change to our config of low on right when low is next to rail as in this case

.

grendel Joined: 02 Jul 04
Replies: 1518 01 Oct 10 08:45   


the stalls are numbered reverse to ours so low on the left as you look in front of the stalls 

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Winner of Sprint drawn 1 next to the rail. i.e on the RIGHT as you look at the front of the stalls.

Are you sure low are on the left (next to the rail) on the round course?

yes, i've looked at replays to check, i did say about 5f races if you read the bottom line 2 posts previous to yours

incidentally for the next race over 1 mile, with the limited number of Longchamp races in R.I.'s database, stall 1 (Misty For Me)in races good to soft or softer have a bad record in 33 races since 2000

stall__exp wins__act wins

1__5.0__0
2__4.6__7
3__6.1__6
4__4.5__4
5__3.8__7
6__2.9__4
7__3.1__3
8__1.7__1
9__0.5__0
10__0.1__0
11__0.1__1

oops

In the above answers:
(a) the stalls are numbered reverse to ours so low on the left as you look in front of the stalls
or
(b) drawn 1 next to the rail. i.e on the RIGHT as you look at the front of the stalls.
These are totally opposite comments !!
Which is correct?

so, looking up the trach from the winning post, which side is Baattash gonna be on???