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do systems work?
do systems work?
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I've been creating and scrapping systems for years.
Firstly looking at historical data is back fitting and never works because you start to put money on, just when its run is about to end. The invention of staking plans,(increasing your stake during a losing sequence) is meant to keep you in profit but in practice can break you. Lets remember that a system can be as simple as backing number 2 in every race. The reason people lose on the horses is because they swap from one system to the next. If you look on Adrian Masseys site, you can find plenty of systems that break even or make a very slight loss. The fact is people lose because they don't stick with one system, but start backing it before the good run starts not when it is about to finish. |
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be very cautious if using historic data to create them as it is all to easy to add extra rules that result in a profit
Another area to be particularly worried about imo is where the majority of the profits of the testing are produced by one or two big odds winners(+20/1+) with a lot of shorter (5/1 or less)losers. all the odds are below a certain value so that isnt a problem with big odd winners as for using historical data, i started off and had 2 criteria checked results and found that it was not a sucessful as would resulted in a loss (small loss) then i changed it slightly and found that it would result in profit you are saying adding extra rules that result in profit however i only changed 1 of the rules then checked results for the years again and it proved useful.. i hope ive got something i can work on here but i'm beginning to doubt it even though the results tell me it works  |
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morning stevie .whats the highest odds ure layin?
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the very highest would be around 7s
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i thought ure system was layin favs
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you never seen a race where favs odds have been near 7s? and you been here since 2006....
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ive been here since the start of betfair stevie......
not many favs start at 7s or above...some but not many u said yesterday tuesday was a losing day for u..... how many system bets did u have and how many won and lost? |
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freddie, by asking these questions and giving you the answers all you are trying to do is work out my system which i am not going to give you enough detail to do so, you tried this before dont forget
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ure not so slow i thought i had it but i dont know how u had a losing day tuesday....back to the drawing board again...... keeps me busy working out systems |
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the thing is i hardly post selections, and some selections i post on here are not to do with my system at all, they are my own personal choice
so keep trying, there is a number of ways it could of been a losing day yesterday such as 1 bet and a loss, 2 bets 2 losses etc |
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are there days your system has no selections
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freddie yes AND no
work that one out |
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how many lays had ure system on tuesday?
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150
given up yet? |
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a lot of favs won on tuesday but they where in handicaps.....
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ive run it though my program again ...and there is a way u could have had a losing day......
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bought a system back in the 80's,from fineform (I thk),last 2 runs:
winner 5 pts. 2nd 2 pts. 3rd 1 pt. course winner 2 pts distance winner 1 pt (or other way round,well it has been 25 years !! ) add the totals up horse with highest total wins race !! (well sometimes ) MAX BET was last two runs a winner + c/d winner 13 POINTS !! [;)] |
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haha bluenose you running that system still?
 doubt you would be if your saying it on this thrread freddie forget it, im not going to tell you ANYTHING towards helping you work it out.. however if you are trying to work it out must make you believe that systems work.. thanks for your answer |
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of course i believe that systems work......
otherwise i wouldnt spent my time working on systems and searching out new ones...ive got several that work very well....profits every week and profits every month....but im still searching for one that has profits every day....im getting close though....... |
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freddiewilliams your systems are probably bots that back and lay at certain odds yes? taking maybe 2% here and there where as the one i worked out doesnt involve trading at all lol
working out systems is what i also have been doing recently i find it tough to do but worth it when you find 1 that you think works |
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i dont use bots...i told u that a few months ago.....dont trade either.....boring as fluck
did u buy that bot you where on here asking about a few months ago? |
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betbot pro? no mate
i signed up for the free trial, then my internet died for few days and by time i had internet again my trial code period had ended so never even got to try it |