Mordin On Time book

you take it off when calculating your standard times. ( Since a lower grade animal runs slower, you deduct more).
Where do you get your times from btw? (I want some Irish standard times and the RP ones are useless. )

raceform, havent a clue what you mean by your answer can you give an example.
Class 1 8f time 1.38.6 (3.6 seconds per mile), Class 2 time 1.39 (4.8 seconds per mile), so what are the new median times? Thanks.

you need more than 2 times to get a median time you need at least 20 to get a meaningful average/median

you deduct the class off the times-it doesnt sound that hard to me

nick mordin used to send you his own standard times from his website

I understand you need about 20 times. My question is what are the new times for Class 1 8f 1.38.60 (3.6 seconds per mile) and Class 2 1.39.00 (4.8 seconds per mile).

How are the times measured? For example, when the gates open (flat obv.) to the winning post by an electric timer, like in athletics?

sounds easy but nobody seems able to answer the example?

Roger, the median times are for the distance, not the class

I started doing ratings from an article in 'odds on' magazine that was around in the 90's, this was how he did it then though he uses a lower scale nowadays

Nick Mordin used a mythical champion racehorse as his reference point and that horse would be rated 100, group 1 winners would on average run 2 secs per mile slower, group 2 would run 2.2 secs etc down to sellers that would run 6 secs per mile slower. The median time he wanted was the time the champion would be expected to run on good ground, to get this average he would take off the secs per mile from race times depending on the class of race and take the median of this set of times.

Where you start the reference point is not important, whats important is the difference between the classes which would be the same in relation to each other irrespective of where you start to refer from

I think this method is in his' betting for a living' book

okay so all the times are slower than the mythical champion. The Class 1 less so than the Class 2 for example. So what's he saying you should do with the 1.38.60, speed it up to 1.35 (3.6 seconds per mile) and the 1.39 for the Class 2, speed it up to 1.34.20 (4.8 seconds per mile)?

using your example and with only 2 races, you would set the median time for that distance to 1.34.6 ... if theyre on different days you could deduce that the class 2 race was run on ground with going -.4 secs and class 1 race +.4, or if the class 2 race was won by 4½ lengths then you could deduce that the median time should be 1.35 and the class 2 winner was an above average winner

okay so all the times are slower than the mythical champion. The Class 1 less so than the Class 2 for example. So what's he saying you should do with the 1.38.60, speed it up to 1.35 (3.6 seconds per mile) and the 1.39 for the Class 2, speed it up to 1.34.20 (4.8 seconds per mile)?

if the race distance is 1 mile, then yes

thats what I thought he meant speed up all the winning times. But if you do that, and you have a median time of 1.34.60 (lets say 18 more horses do the exact same time in the same classes) then the Class 1 horse runs next week and does a 1.38.60, you say he's 4 seconds slower than standard, and you have a slow going allowance? Does that not just make all the winning times slow by speeding them up?

does not mean it was slow going- you would have to look at the other race times from the same meeting to confirm that.

Mordin has proved time and again that he is little more than a nutty professor who writes as though everything he believes in is a fact

but isnt all the future times gonna be slower than the median no matter what, because he's speeded up the median?

well, yes unless a horse ran freakishly fast.
( basically this is due to setting a Class 1 horse as running 3.6 secs per mile slower than standard. )

Roger? ... is this the first time you're attempting to do speed ratings?

no I've done them before, but just reading through his book I think he doesnt explain HOW to construct his median properly.

I had a question for him a while back Roger and he emailed me back. I don't know if he still has email address up on his ite but he was very helpful

what standard times did you use before

on turf i've always used racing post medians, all weather i calculated my own as there is not much work to do there but this turf season that i haven't started to rate yet, i'll use raceform medians as i have raceform interactive and can use an excel spreadsheet to do virtually all the donkey work

raceform grendel. He must calculate his numbers totally differently. All his medians at the back of the book look mad. Newmarket 5f July 56 secs. The fastest time in the last 10 years was 56.09 Borderlescott. Must be because of this mythical champion thing and his speed figure numbers he uses are lower than what everyone else does, and I know the number is arbitrary.

like i said before its not important where his medians start at, whats important is the difference between all the distances medians at the track, i dare say the difference between the medians of two distances on the july course are virtually the same as racing post or raceform

Try, Irishracing. com.