'Double Up' Strategy?

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No wonder it is so hard to win on hear these days

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Go for it joey! Don't listen to this bunch. They're jealous because they didn't think up this incredible idea.

:/ Doesn't appeal to me to be honest because I participate in betting simply because I love the sport and I enjoy looking for value etc like many of yous, it's just that a bloke I was talking to earlier mentioned that he's been following this strategy for a while and is making some decent and consistant profit and I was just wondering how popular it was?

You would have been doing pretty bad with that strategy at punchestown this week!!

I think I've missed the point here fellas and being laughed at! lol It's been a long day!

Obviously chosing meetings with small fields not for instance punchestowns this week or any other irish meetings in fact!

its a bad plan joey....if it was a good plan then we would all be doing it and all bookies would be skint.

Ye I see what you mean mate, any strategy that "works" sound too good to be true.

It is the most notorious strategy in the history of betting Joey :)

if u have a large enough bank you cant lose

if u have a large enough bank you cant lose

Does anyone know the percentage of meetings with a favourite winning at least once?

47 in a row lost once Joey

Bet 48 would be a big one :p

That's mad!

17.3% on figures from 2002-10, Joey

Thanks mate. Thought it would've been higher myself, interesting...

joey

did you mean didn't win at least once or did win at least once per meeting??

did win...

surely those figures given above are the opposite?

would work well on a roulette in the end

i think for a 6 race meet

its about 93% likely to have at least 1 winning fav at a meeting

ok thanks mate..

good system on paper but percentages not in your favour. If you've got an unlimited bank why would you bother betting.

looking at wrong table

the data i have for 6 race meet says 0 winners was 278 out of 3907 races

so about 91%

Filter the Tracks and then the race types and you'll get a clearer picture.

Some surprising figures out there

statsman i've been doing that with trainers and can't believe some of the finds when filtering courses/race types etc :0

what happens with a winner? start with original stake?

what if winning fav was 1/5?

I think the theory is to bet to win a set amount - if loser next bet is to win back stakes and set amount. Start again after a winner

ah fair enough.

its a cant lose strategy but you will need a big bank to cater for losses. as someone posted, if you have a bank that size then why gamble this way? not for the fun or the need to make more money?

anfield, I've done it in the past to use as a guide. Certain trainers don't like to have winning favs ;)

Stats people - would be interested to know if % of winning favs has increased in last few years. I would expect it to have as people have access to more information, both in terms of form and market being more transparent.

If you went 20 odd races without a winner and the next fav was 1/4, would you really want to risk the amount you'd need to win a small amount?
and that's if you could get on at that price

for example (looking to make £100 profit then walk away)

1st race fav @ 4/1...£25 stake lost
2nd race fav @ 7/2....£35.72 stake (to win £125) lost
3rd race fav @ evens...£160.72 stake ...win

= £100 profit..walk away

if fav was 1/5 first race then stake of £500 needed obviously.

Won't be doing it myself because I haven't got time due to work commitments but as already said, big enough bank and you cant lose

It isn't necessarily wether the fav's have a good win strike rate, it's whether having backed them, you'd have made a profit.

50% winning favs doesn't mean the P/L would be in the plus

A foolish system which is full of holes.

Tonight at Kempton you would have made your £100 after the second race, no need to bet more. If only every meeting was as easy as this! :/

Statsman you don't bet level stakes with this strategy, you increase it to cover the loss you've made with every losing bet and to ensure the agreed upon profit (for instance £100) when it does

4/1 and 7/2 are big prices for a favourite outside of H/C races and in most cases in small field H/C's

You can't make it pay in the long run playing the fav's blindly

I understand that joey but the more losers you get and price dependant, the more you're risking for a small reward.

Would you be willing to put for eg. 1000 on to retrieve previous losses + a tenner?

statsman are you a backer or layer or both usually on here ??

i think thats the idea statsman. keep going until you have got it back, regardless of price etc. unlimited bank needed in dire times though

The only way to make money betting consistently is to take odds that are better than the actual probability - this probability is harder to work out the more variable the outcome e.g. with a horse race. Staking is really irrelevant unless you happen to be putting more on the poor value bets.

To make money on this system therefore the odds of a fav would have to be greater than its acutal chance - that is not true.

Yes I understand, but if you've gone that far, the other way to look at it..could you not afford to gamble further to get your stake back and make that profit you set out to achieve?

I won't be doing this myself because, 1. I haven't got time and 2. I haven't got the balls! lol

I'm a backer anfield but use the favourite data as a guide

oh right, i use my database mainly for laying with regard favs, usually decent yards at skinny odds.

i'm off anyway mate, knackered eyeballs.

gl in the future ;)

i mean ...could you afford not to gamble further and win your stake back and achieve that profit? ***

joey are you thick or simple

Joey have you ever had a bet?

joey, if I'd gone that far, I'd think feck it and take the loss.

There's been some very short priced favs been overturned recently and in fact today the Henderson horse at Southwell was one such case. Imagine if you'd had to put 10,000 on that to achieve your target and then the next fav was a similar price!!

No thank you!!!

you dont need balls joey, just cash and a lot of it when unlucky.

someone said the longest run was around 47/48? whats that in days? say 1 meeting a day with a 6 card race minimum so the 9 days or so was the longest possible length of losing. its not like you have to go months with making the profit and stake back.

i'm off to the bank tomorrow for a big loan, gotta try it out ;-)

GN anfield and same to you m8 :)

I'm thick!

Thanks for the chat fellas, im off to bed

all the best, night :)

Stakey just text me, sayed it cannot be done.

HTH


;)

GN joey and good luck with this venture (you'll need a lot of it) :)

Like I said statsman, I won't be doing it because I aint got the time, work 6 days a week. Got more important things in life than gambling my life away I just wanted to know peoples views on this so called strategy thats all!

Thanks and GN :)

It worked for Gordon Brown, it'll work for you :^0

Do you realise that because a horse gets beaten the next horse you back is not twice as likely of winning.
Unless you are betting to win very small amounts it is not possible to outlast a long run of outs using that method.

Backing in very small stakes and only on certain type of races at certain type of odds... it is a licence to print money, you don't get rich over night mind..