Arcalis - am I mad or is 50/1 too big?

the only way form stacks up is if you discard all the bad runs.

that kinda defeats the object of form

I totally agree with you cruise (similar scenario to Buena Vista who i bet today)

therein Madness lies

Sorry didn't realise MT agreed, bound to romp home now

if this wins ill never bet again.

Moneytree you seem like a right plonker. It seems rather easy to knock people for highlighting huge outsiders that could have a chance. If the form was rock solid it wouldn't be 50/1 ffs! Buena Vista's form this season was shocking going right back to when it ran at the last festival, how on earth did it possibly win with such poor form?

Big Bucks - was it you tipped up Buena Vista last night? - I had a look and agreed

im not knocking just saying if you read the form it cant win, if you start ignoring form to make its chances look better then your not looking at the bigger picture, if it wins then well done but its a horse out of love with racing and it takes more thana drop in weights to sort that out.

Yeah it was fox, hope you were on mate.

Biggest worry with backing Arcalis is it doesn't follow the trends of a normal county hurdle winner. Think I will just have a small bit on.

and was buena vista a 50-1 shot?

just dont go mad and hope you collect on it

Big Bucks - I raise a glass to you sir, good call

Thanks for flagging it uo, I had a look and concurred and 16s is my kind of price,

I have to concur you are barking mad about Arcalis though. Sorry

on ATR today, Goodon Brun, said he was chatting to Wylie, who told him that he expected this beast to run a big race

my fav horse, keep the faith, deliberatly kept out the back this season.

Monsieur Wylie don't know front end of a hoss from back. Hence his reliance on JHJ - who also don't know front end of a hoss... etc

kind of agree myself ,totaly wrote the beast off now after following it over cliffs ,looks like it needs a lot further than 2m and it looks like a miracle this oss ever had the pace for 2m but it did and nothing would surprise ,faasel and ebinzayid both ran races today so you never know but 100/1 would be closer to the mark as i dont think soft ground is what it wants .

I aint going mad mate £10 ew. The point I was making was that form doesn't mean everything, especially races like this that could be the target for a horse for the whole year (a lot like todays was for Buena Vista).

Enough from me now. I have done reasonably well this year and backed quite a few winnners at decent prices including Chief Dan George on the first day at 50 on here (I posted it before hand so I aint aftertiming). I just think if someone highlights an outsider taking the time to pick holes in it's form is kinda pointless. I've never ever backed a 50/1 shot that had the best form in the race...... Maybe that is why they are outsiders?

It's not soft ground...

Precisely cruise d. If he retains any ability he has a chance in this.

Cruise - I totally agree, when people post up the big outsiders, I have a good look and form an opinion. I could see Buena Vista yesteday but can't see Arcalis at all. However, I appreciate people taking the time to put 'em up and it helps my selection process. Not rubbishing it just can't see it.

hmm - will revisit the book but was never convinced by this beast

At the end of the day he could be gone at them agem, but like cruise said it is definetely interesting that his form was poor before this race last year and he ran very respectfully and is now 15lb lower, now there is 2 ways of assessing him:

1) He is gone at the game since

2) He retains a lot of ability and has been laid out for the race since last year.

At 50/1 it has got to be worth a small punt at least.

My take is he is gone at the game and I am no supporter of the trainer - should have done better with the powder he has had. Am prepared to be wrong as always..

DEE E WILLIAMS DONE !!

game*

you are not mad at all

will be in the top 6 imo, will be in the mix

I agree that JHJ may not be the best in the world. I don't follow racing as closely as I used to but I honestly don't think he gets the ammo he used to however. Back in the mid 2000s buying flat horses and sending them hurdling was working well for the Wylie's( and therefore JHJ)with horses like Arcalis, Mephisto and No Refuge (from my very bad memory) but latley it isn't going so well with the likes of Scriptwriter, Washington Irvine etc. I think partially it's down to the potential superstars they buy not taking to obstacles at all. Funnily enough as they have been going over the top in what they buy IMO. I'm not sure it's all JHJ's fault although I'm not trying to say he's the best trainer in the world.

One last thing to point out about this race. It looks like they are potentially running a pacemaker for Arcalis, which they haven't in previous runnings of this. To me that suggests they are taking it seriously.

Spot on cruise...he does look like a horse who wants more of a strong pace than others in the race...can see it now...santa's son going off in front and arcalis making headway in the last couple of furlongs...it looks too obvious.

I didn`t realise they had put on a pig race, what time does that one go off at ?

happydays, don't you think that is an insult of a comment about a former supreme novice winner?

Not really, its a horse thats been living off that one great moment for years. When has it ever looked like a supreme novice hurdle winner since ? I`m just amazed that people keep on throwing money at this thing and most of it is based on what it used to be and not what it is now.

When winning the fighting 5th and then coming 5th in the champion hurdle?

I aint betting it ew cos of what it did 4/5 years ago. I'm betting on it cos it's ran well in this the last 2 years and is now running of a pathetic 130.

The fighting 5th that The French Furze managed to finish 3rd in ? The Champion hurdle that it finished 5th in was a poor race apart from the first 3 home and maybe Al Eile, Arcalis was well held ... Anyway that was 4 years ago, anyway good luck with your bet.

It still got to within 7 lengths of Hardy when he was 9. I know it's not great but you asked when it had looked like a supreme winner and that is decent form. Aint saying it makes any difference for tomorrow BTW, just making a point.

It's a speculative bet and the people saying he has gone at the game are probably right. However I personally think that the chances of him still retaining the ability to run a good race off 130 on decent ground in this race are a fair bit smaller than 50/1, hence it's a bet for me.

I've never thrown any money away on it happydays, this will be the first time I would have bet him.

happydays is trying to wind me up as he knows this is my fav horse, but i refuse to be drawn down to his level.

lol ...... My float went under a bit then, shud have struck as you never know.

I should take up fishing again, ahh those were the days......

I've backed it twice since it's champ hurdle run, both times ew in this race for the last 2 years. Given that I got paid for the first year for the 5th place I'm actually slightly up on the horse in this race. So you could say it doesn't owe me anything ;).

cruise, it may not owe you anything but it owes Stan around £2.5 million and counting. He needs to stick 50k on it tomorow just to break even, he`ll be the one in the ring tomorow with the trackie bottoms, castleford tigers shirt and dunlop green flash gloshers holding a carrier bag with his last 50k in it.

pmsl. the pub i live in will be renamed arcalis if the horse wins tommorow.

i am having one bet tomorrow ;)

I'm going to back it in the morning I think, hopefully will get 50s with 5 places then

im on at 85s

happydays 19 Mar 00:31

The Champion hurdle that it finished 5th in was a poor race apart from the first 3 home and maybe Al Eile

:^0

If the ground is quick it's a bet imo

Not mad at all. Songe could also run well at a big price.

its too big !!

I'm on e/w if Money Tree says it has no chance it has to place at least! I remember backing it when it first came out and it won at 50s then so fingers crossed.

I HAVE PLACE LAYED IT,CERTAINLY WONT BE IN TOP 4.

Massive Price. Got it's ground and been racing this year in races with absolutely no chance for it's rating to drop. Finished 7th last year after being 2nd last before the second last. Finished like a train and now 15lb lower.

Anybody looking to get on, I suggest get on with 365, 50s with 5 places.

Good shout.

and best price guaranteed

Would be slightly worried with regards to how the stables other runners have performed this week.

Having said that, wouldn't put anyone off an e/w nibble at big prices

handicapper definitely given the horse a chance of at least making the frame??

Good luck Arcalis backers :)

Great call !

:)

Wd mate..

Well done Big bucks. Where are the ones calling us mad now?

Well done mate

Nice bet, unlucky to find 1/1000 too good.

WD E/W Backers.

Thanks cruise, moneytree LOL

Nice call

good shout B-)

Gutted altho at 66/1 I got a good run, was hampered by the bad faller.....

u bet it ew born?

Yh it was hampered. You need luck in races like this though, just the way it goes :(. I ended up with 30 on at 50-55 win on here so am gutted it didn't win but pleased that it ran it's race and showed what a few on here were trying to get at.

Yes, but I would loved it to win John!

TBF you knew you were on a winner when money tree came on and said "tailed off"

Well done :) I'm so pleased :)

what was the faller that hampered it? gutted its not won.

Good call
How much did you lay it for MONEY TREE ?

Loved this horse on the flat, yet to forgive myself for not backing it in its Supreme win.

Well done backers, good job John you put a few on I would say.

well done. I had e/w at 50s to. Could have won if it hadn't had lost a few lengths when that horse fell :(

3lb overweight??WTF??

MONEY TREE 19 Mar 07:55


I HAVE PLACE LAYED IT,CERTAINLY WONT BE IN TOP 4.




priceless ....

would have won with correct weight

overweight .......... !!!

Obviously collect some mud/birch on the way round........ or had a pint and a burger b4 weighing in!

3lb overweight!!! What a joke!! Prob the difference between winning and finishing 2nd.

^ would have been a dead heat :P

Hampered by the faller which cost it a couple lenghts and jock was 3lbs over, v unlucky not to have won that.

^ Would have won anyway had it not been hampered by a faller.

*lengths

yh it just gets worse. lol still won over a oner on the place but a big swing from the 1500 I'd have had from a win.

have an it in e/w doubs and some e/w all e/w doubs ,a place from my will @125/1 wll bring the house down

It was Izitar Star that hampered Arcalis. Only had to check left and wasnt badly hampered as some but was hampered. I'm trying to be calm about the 3lbs, but finding it tough.

fuming with jockey.

last hurdle being moved was the biggest problem imo ,just getting into its stride as the post came

Well done to all those on Arcalis. Like I said, John, you weren't mad at all; or if you were there were others sharing your bout of insanity.

:)

This is the thread where MONEY TREE said to lay haha :)

I must admit I couldn't decide whether you were totally**ers or a genius of the first order, so I backed Dee ee Williams instead... You beat me you bast...

Sorry brave :D

Never mind ay? Theres always next year and I did get 6/1 a place Dee ee Williams

O'Regan should be flogged for 3lbs overweight-shows difference between mccoy's attitude.

Wonder if owner/trainer knew beforehand?.

;)

Unlucky with the 3lb OW. Although I'm not convinced he would of won though.

The ones that called me mad for fancying it at chelt will prob be backing it today at 5/1 fav lol