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18 Mar 10
21:44
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Date Joined:
11 Mar 08
Strictly on form would have a chance of being in the frame, the worry is has he been trained to run in this race or is he just gone at the game? He finished 16lengths behind American Trilogy last year (the 2nd horse was 11l behind) but is 15lb lower tomorrow, will have his ground, and was a top 2mile hurdler at his best, was an impressive supreme winner 5 years ago and obviously acts on the track.
I'm debating whether to bet it or not, will have a small bet on either way I think just in case because I think 50s is too big, could see it running into a place.
I'm debating whether to bet it or not, will have a small bet on either way I think just in case because I think 50s is too big, could see it running into a place.
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Replies: 113
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fallen out of love with the game
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TAILED OFF
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YOU ARE MAD
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would have agreed with money tree but hes said it so should win in a canter :D
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Gone at the game, but I am on anyway! Joe Koral running scared think my small ew bet forced them into 40s from 66s.
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THIS USED TO BEONE TO FOLLOW NOW ALL IT DOES IS FOLLOW THE OTHERS.
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what harm can you do backing a big priced one. Plenty of short priced ones dont win
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Mad :(
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I've done Arcalis ew too. He is 15lbs lower than when a staying on 7th in this last year and 21 lbs lower than when finishing 5th 2 years ago. If the better ground on a track he likes revitalises him then he has definate place claims at the very least. He had done nothing before last years decent run in this race much like this year but he so much lower in the weights now that you would have to give him an ew shout.
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mad, should be 500/1
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cruise d you sound quite clued up like me ;) I mean strictly on the form, the horse has a great chance.
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WHAT FORM SAYS WILL WIN,ILL ENJOY SEEING THIS.
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Why is it mad? In the last 2 years it has ran with credit in the race and both times have been the best it has run all season. This year it has run poorly over the season like it has the past 2 but comes into the race of a rating of just 130 on ground that is better for it than the previous years! How can that possibly be mad?
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the only way form stacks up is if you discard all the bad runs.
that kinda defeats the object of form |
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I totally agree with you cruise (similar scenario to Buena Vista who i bet today)
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therein Madness lies
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Sorry didn't realise MT agreed, bound to romp home now
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if this wins ill never bet again.
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Moneytree you seem like a right plonker. It seems rather easy to knock people for highlighting huge outsiders that could have a chance. If the form was rock solid it wouldn't be 50/1 ffs! Buena Vista's form this season was shocking going right back to when it ran at the last festival, how on earth did it possibly win with such poor form?
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Big Bucks - was it you tipped up Buena Vista last night? - I had a look and agreed
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im not knocking just saying if you read the form it cant win, if you start ignoring form to make its chances look better then your not looking at the bigger picture, if it wins then well done but its a horse out of love with racing and it takes more thana drop in weights to sort that out.
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Yeah it was fox, hope you were on mate.
Biggest worry with backing Arcalis is it doesn't follow the trends of a normal county hurdle winner. Think I will just have a small bit on. |
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and was buena vista a 50-1 shot?
just dont go mad and hope you collect on it |
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Big Bucks - I raise a glass to you sir, good call
Thanks for flagging it uo, I had a look and concurred and 16s is my kind of price, I have to concur you are barking mad about Arcalis though. Sorry |
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on ATR today, Goodon Brun, said he was chatting to Wylie, who told him that he expected this beast to run a big race
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my fav horse, keep the faith, deliberatly kept out the back this season.
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Monsieur Wylie don't know front end of a hoss from back. Hence his reliance on JHJ - who also don't know front end of a hoss... etc
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kind of agree myself ,totaly wrote the beast off now after following it over cliffs ,looks like it needs a lot further than 2m and it looks like a miracle this oss ever had the pace for 2m but it did and nothing would surprise ,faasel and ebinzayid both ran races today so you never know but 100/1 would be closer to the mark as i dont think soft ground is what it wants .
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I aint going mad mate £10 ew. The point I was making was that form doesn't mean everything, especially races like this that could be the target for a horse for the whole year (a lot like todays was for Buena Vista).
Enough from me now. I have done reasonably well this year and backed quite a few winnners at decent prices including Chief Dan George on the first day at 50 on here (I posted it before hand so I aint aftertiming). I just think if someone highlights an outsider taking the time to pick holes in it's form is kinda pointless. I've never ever backed a 50/1 shot that had the best form in the race...... Maybe that is why they are outsiders? |
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It's not soft ground...
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Precisely cruise d. If he retains any ability he has a chance in this.
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Cruise - I totally agree, when people post up the big outsiders, I have a good look and form an opinion. I could see Buena Vista yesteday but can't see Arcalis at all. However, I appreciate people taking the time to put 'em up and it helps my selection process. Not rubbishing it just can't see it.
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hmm - will revisit the book but was never convinced by this beast
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At the end of the day he could be gone at them agem, but like cruise said it is definetely interesting that his form was poor before this race last year and he ran very respectfully and is now 15lb lower, now there is 2 ways of assessing him:
1) He is gone at the game since 2) He retains a lot of ability and has been laid out for the race since last year. At 50/1 it has got to be worth a small punt at least. |
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My take is he is gone at the game and I am no supporter of the trainer - should have done better with the powder he has had. Am prepared to be wrong as always..
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DEE E WILLIAMS DONE !!
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game*
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you are not mad at all
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will be in the top 6 imo, will be in the mix
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