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This one is a standout for me today in the 2m5f handicap hurdle at Market Rasen. Generally available at 12-1 ep. Summary of reasoning:
1. decent novice hurdle form in Ireland two years ago trained by Mouse Morris; he actually competed in the Supreme Novices' although disappointed there. His current mark is at least 10lbs below that novice form.
2. both chase and hurdles form declined last year despite the odd bit of encouragement - moved to Sue Smith and appeared to show immediate improvement off today's mark (113) in a Catterick handicap hurdle (0-130) in January , looking like the winner until making a bad mistake at the second last and eventually finishing third. That is winning form in the context of this race (0-115) if replicated under the different conditions and even without the prospect of further improvement.
3. three runs in handicap hurdles since then - first when bogged down at Uttoxeter, the second when a staying on third over a probably too short trip (2m) at Huntingdon off 114 and then another disappointing effort in deteriorating ground over 2m again at Newcastle
4. now had a three week break but still not been with Sue Smith long, and she's exactly the sort of trainer to coax improvement/revivial. Longer term I would expect her to have him as a chaser.
5. the four runs this year have been under Tjade Collier and Shane Byrne (5) - with the greatest respect to those I think that Giles Hawkins and his 5lb is better value
6. suprisingly little good ground form in the book, and what there is is actually quite promising: 6th in the Aon Hurdle at Punchestown in 2008; falling at the last when winning in a beginners' chase at Gowran later in the year and then mixed messages from a couple of beginners' chases on good last year - one decent run, one poorish (although trying to make all at a decent pace)
7. Other than the obvious dangers (Key Time and River Logic) it's really not a great race.
The main reservation is the trip: although appearing to need more than 2m, TGAO has on a couple of indications that 2m4f+ might be pushing his limits. That's presumably why the price is so big. I will clutch at the following straws: performance in the Aon Hurdle, the ground and the fact that the course is pretty sharp. (River Logic, for example, seems to stay further at MR than on other courses)
1. decent novice hurdle form in Ireland two years ago trained by Mouse Morris; he actually competed in the Supreme Novices' although disappointed there. His current mark is at least 10lbs below that novice form.
2. both chase and hurdles form declined last year despite the odd bit of encouragement - moved to Sue Smith and appeared to show immediate improvement off today's mark (113) in a Catterick handicap hurdle (0-130) in January , looking like the winner until making a bad mistake at the second last and eventually finishing third. That is winning form in the context of this race (0-115) if replicated under the different conditions and even without the prospect of further improvement.
3. three runs in handicap hurdles since then - first when bogged down at Uttoxeter, the second when a staying on third over a probably too short trip (2m) at Huntingdon off 114 and then another disappointing effort in deteriorating ground over 2m again at Newcastle
4. now had a three week break but still not been with Sue Smith long, and she's exactly the sort of trainer to coax improvement/revivial. Longer term I would expect her to have him as a chaser.
5. the four runs this year have been under Tjade Collier and Shane Byrne (5) - with the greatest respect to those I think that Giles Hawkins and his 5lb is better value
6. suprisingly little good ground form in the book, and what there is is actually quite promising: 6th in the Aon Hurdle at Punchestown in 2008; falling at the last when winning in a beginners' chase at Gowran later in the year and then mixed messages from a couple of beginners' chases on good last year - one decent run, one poorish (although trying to make all at a decent pace)
7. Other than the obvious dangers (Key Time and River Logic) it's really not a great race.
The main reservation is the trip: although appearing to need more than 2m, TGAO has on a couple of indications that 2m4f+ might be pushing his limits. That's presumably why the price is so big. I will clutch at the following straws: performance in the Aon Hurdle, the ground and the fact that the course is pretty sharp. (River Logic, for example, seems to stay further at MR than on other courses)
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Replies: 23
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into 10/1 now on bet365
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Excellent post
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Proper thread ;-)
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well done
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well played sir
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Excellent work, WD
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what more can you say....brilliant tipping
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very good Them , pity didnt see this earlier well done fella
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deffo a tryer
well done |
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Them , hats off to you , wd
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very well done
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Funny how there is only one reply before the race, a proper post even it would have lost. If only the forum was used for racing.............
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WD. Mine got done 1.01. I never trade out. :(
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well done , I got beaten then, cant believe it traded @ 1.01....
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TBH if he'd have posted this half an hour before the race, it wouldn't have been lost amongst the dross posted all afternoon.
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Agreed, just shows how much dross is posted on here though.
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WD m8. Good write up and spot on. Keep it up.
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great call
to the others moaning about the lack of decent threads get contributing! well done |
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Top class stuff, well done. :)
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Excellent write up, vwd B-)
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them knew ;)
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Thanks all. Celebrating a very nice win.
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well done...i was on!
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