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To save a big off course payout ?
Amazing that a horse that was freely available at 20/1 plus ends up 10/1 joint fav
So what happened to shorten its price by 50% in a 40 runner handicap field ?
The horse was a bit of an also ran.
McCoy had a poor record in the race
What sort of bets would have to be struck on the National to shorten a horse from 20/1 to 10/1 ,
Seems a dodgy SP to me especially when the Bookies were betting circa 150% on the race
Amazing that a horse that was freely available at 20/1 plus ends up 10/1 joint fav
So what happened to shorten its price by 50% in a 40 runner handicap field ?
The horse was a bit of an also ran.
McCoy had a poor record in the race
What sort of bets would have to be struck on the National to shorten a horse from 20/1 to 10/1 ,
Seems a dodgy SP to me especially when the Bookies were betting circa 150% on the race
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Replies: 68
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Interesting post, why has nobody else considered this?
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probably a lemming here..but easy pickings for high street...could have gone to 165 and no one would notice.
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red lorry~ yellow lorry 10 Apr 22:18
laddies backed it 2 win £220k with those in the sp ~ hence a return of 10/1 thats the reason, laddies made sure and 220k is nothing to them when it must have saved them paying out millions more |
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KNOW ALL - thanks for that .
Yes Laddies would only have had to shell out circa 20 /30 grand on course to do the trick. They are a shrewd organisation -no doubt about it |
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it stinks thats all i know
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Not rigged but certain people know how to manipulate it.
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Jonjo's 'Pulled Up last time' have a good record....
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returned 19.1 on betfair
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It was nearly 20s here at the off. Why would books really want to shorten it cos everyone takes the prices anyway so its not like they would be takin SP.
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Are you jokin? Most people who bet on the national DONT have a clue... they do NOT take prices...
I myself have several people who ring asking me to put bets on for them. They take the price that the BBC says it wins at... I don't tell them what price I got... |
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i didnt take a price for my mum,gettin real grief,it was 20/1 and you say 10/1--blimey charlie its like im trying to do her over for a few quid, it aint cool man
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have to pay the difference Terry
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Well done Dik
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should do the honourable thing--never hear the end of it
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I got 24 Terry... easily available 'early doors'... Wouldn't have backed it myself but happy to have a 14/1 winner...
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never thought for a second it would halve in price
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I had a grand at 25 and layed a few mates a grand at sp.
I now have 14k pocket money if my maths is any good? |
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well if thats the case,thats f ucking lovely
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I make it 15K profit
you won 25k and gave them 10k well done mate. |
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Nope, you have to take 1 off the 25. So my odds were 24/1
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the bookies were shortening everything up,absolute joke,didnt affect me playing on here,but the general public have been mugged imo.
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What sort of bets would have to be struck on the National to shorten a horse from 20/1 to 10/1 ,
Probably the same bets that were on Monkerhostina few years back when he was hammered off the boards. |
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10000-£500 (x5) £9000-£500 £80000-£5000 £10000-£600 (x8) £5000-£300 (x4) £10000-£700 (x7) £5000-£350 (x5) £10000-£800 (x5) £5000-£400 (x9) £10000-£900
apparently this is all it takes according to sporting life.com imagine how easy it was for the lads laying 10000-900 , putting 600 on @ 18+ on here@ 19 for a handy profit of 300+. It beggars belief |
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Surely the question is why the Betfair SP was almost double: why did the ring layers not arb or hedge back onto here?
Part of the reason must involve the extraordinarily high margin the ring was betting to at the off, suggesting that Don't Push It's price was not the only one out of line. Perhaps too the perception that Don't Push It was getting worked up at the start so could not win. But the on-course bookmakers who so obligingly cut the price for the high street firms may be facing losses, especially if in doing so they allowed their books to become unbalanced. Come to think of it, would the betting shops be hoist by their own petard: are many National bets on the unnamed favourite? Hopefully Bruce will have the Post's crack investigative team on the case! |
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Maybe Rishi said it had no chance
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Why shorten only this horse though and it bolts up? This was a gamble I think. JP laid this horse out a while ago if you look through its form and all of the 'not knowing what to ride' kept the price up for a late plunge.
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It happens every year - has done for ever- the grand national returns 150% every year - they dont have to manipulate it the on course bookmakers who include all the big boys -- take the** out of once a year punters. No serious punter bets large amounts on course anymore. It would be interesting to see if any on course bookmakers went 12345 - ?
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JP didnt back that horse @ 10-1 dont worry - he probably didnt have a bet.
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Its a simple fact when demand outsrips supply the net result is the buyer gets stuffed. Ladbrokes were so busy yesterday on the phones the wait time was 10 minutes. It was a bad result for the bookmakers - plus the eway horses didnt help - but all the balldung about losing 10 million each was a load of cods
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Far From Trouble 10 Apr 23:52
Interesting post, why has nobody else considered this? Because we bet with betfair, and ain't interested in the SP. |
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diddles 7 apr 07;24
150% ?there were 40 runners ffs,just over 1% per runner.if it was a 15 runner handicap it would be just about the same (115%)you lot want everything in your favour. |
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Why shorten this horse though? AP is not really a housewife's choice and it was sweating up before the race. I could understand shortening all the betting market leaders but this one horse. Does not make sense to me. And splitting the favourites would surely bring in the un-named favourite backers. I think this was a JP gamble.
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I put £5 ew on it for my sister , when it won she expected to get about £70 back , when i told her i had taken 22/1 she was chuffed to bits. Once a year punters do not have a clue.
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THEY don't want you to win :-(
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brigust1 11 Apr 08:16
Why shorten this horse though? AP is not really a housewife's choice and it was sweating up before the race. I could understand shortening all the betting market leaders but this one horse. Does not make sense to me. And splitting the favourites would surely bring in the un-named favourite backers. I think this was a JP gamble. I would be inclined to agree. |
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with no ruby .......a tide for AP ..........still smells especially the swetty state of it .....i neve knew that horses in a larther shorten up like that
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ap not the houswvies choice? r you jokin? i work in a bookies and for my cashiers and helpers on the day i wrote down which horse he was on as its the most commmonly asked question every year, every 'clueless' punter wants to back whoever they hear is the top jockey regardless, even if the hourse only has 3 legs. Good luck to everyone who had the winner even if 10/1 was a little skinny dont push it carried the largest volume of sinlge bets for us yesterday even if not he largest stakes
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BOOKMAKERS in Britain and Ireland on Saturday claimed that Tony McCoy's historic first win in the John Smith's Grand National cost them £10 million on the day the SP overround of the race was the worst for at least 20 years.
Don't Push It could be backed at 22-1 on Saturday morning, and was no shorter than 20-1, but he was among a number of horses to shorten up in the minutes before the off, as a best-price percentage in the morning of 119 rocketed to 155. How to drive customers away from your own business and straight to Betfair. Lemmings |
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at least dick turpin wore a mask B-)
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