3yr olds - I know this is most probably a stupid question but here goes...

Fishing??

If not its obviously as the horse has been handicapped and is well in at the weight it is set to run off but isn't good enough to win a maiden. As in a maiden its competing against better horses and not being given any advantage where as they would in h'caps.

Hope that makes sense?

Dont try in maidens = get a favourable handicap mark to work from

Sometimes run over wrong distances in the maidens.

Haha they're the cynical reasons, sometimes a trainer may be experimenting as the horses are young and they're not exactly sure what conditions best suit the horse. Though sometimes horses are definetley running below par in order to get h'cap marks in which to exploit.

Other times the horses simply aren't good enough for example to win a maiden on the flat you'd need to have a horse that was able to run of a rating around 60 or over minimum, unless you dropped in on a particularly poor maiden. So horses that can only run to a rating of around 59 or less don't really have a chance of winning maidens or races until they're handicapped and have a 'fair' chance of winning.

no, truly not fishing - just very lacking in knowledge and understanding...

so best to avoid first-time runs in hcaps then...

or maybe back them and see what happens!

thank you all - most helpful

Depends on what the market is doing with the newcomers.. although some yards a lot more shrewder than others. Sometimes it pays to guess what's going to happen, as if you wait too long you can completely miss out on the value. That's where your market reading skills can come in handy, just reading the tiniest of signs of positivity behind a horse first time in a HC. Also don't be put off if they run crap on first start in a HC too, happens loads of times and they start a big price next time - because people think the HC'er has overestimated them - and win. Good luck.

To be honest its best not to completely ignore them. Have a look at what the horses did in their maidens and if you think they've been allotted a fair mark, if you do back them.

Also look for things like the other posters mention like a trainer trying something different like trip. For example if a horse is bred for 1m4f and has been running at 7f in its maidens and then suddenly steps up to 1m4f in a h'cap and looks as if it would be improved with a longer trip in its previous runs it is probably worth backing.

Another thing i look for in handicaps if there's one that is running off its mark for the first time watch its price - if people are backing it then the chances are connections or someone close think its well h'capped.

thanks again - well it certainly goes someway to explaining the result in tonights 8:45 at Wolv...

2 horses having first time runs in hcap... guess which horses finished 1st and 2nd :-)

bottom line is that 75% of horses arent good enough to win most maidens

if I may just pick your brains a little more...

so how do you view 2y form? It's just that in that 8:45 race at Wolv, a lot of people fancied Sweet Child o'Mine - and his LTO was in a 3y - is that what tipped the balance?

It was a weak race and they were also guessing as the formlines were poor plus times on poly were rubbish as well.

gigg, you get my email ?

Just saw it today fella only check every two or three days.