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Looks to be moving fast on here. Could this be the pick of Sir Tom?
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like the form at 100/1 how many horses will be priced up at 100/1 that finished 4th in a Becher and 2nd in a Peter Marsh that same season.
Is correct, new Ladbrokes account opened, used and abused. Will not be 100/1 race time. 33 at best.
i dont think you could properly judge it, how fit was it for its run int he becher? seemed to get home in the Peter Marsh in diabolical conditions, at 100/1 i dont think there is better value to be had in the race, just my opinion of course.
I was at Haydock and Old Vic pulled away from him giving him plenty of weight over 3 miles.
yes but he was dropped out that day and made up an enormous amount of ground up, very hard to do under such conditions. Mon Mome 14/1 and Cloudy Bay 40/1 were behind it
MONEY TREE 09 Apr 21:43
my thoughts on race with r/p prices.
, 66/1 Palypso De Creek, MUG HORSE
:0
my thoughts on race with r/p prices.
, 66/1 Palypso De Creek, MUG HORSE
:0
Pulled away as Palypso was one paced. It can Jump the fences. Can not possibly be 100/1.
110 85 in 30 mins on here. Looking at the chunk wanted at 100 I think its safe to say Sir Tom has spoken.
Not sure if it's his pick or not or if people are simply backing a grossly overpriced horse, it was 140 on the Ante Post market most of the week (I know as I kept bringing it back down to just above a 100 before it bounced back up again consistently) yet the best price was 66/1 with just a few books and 50/1 generally at the time.
As people have suggested on here, should be around a 40's shot, nowhere near a 100/1 shot.
Positives:
Bought for the race and trained with this in mind all year.
Shapes like a stayer. Won at Towcester FTO over hurdles. Readily outpaced in the Becher having jumped adequatedly, plugged on for 4th once it looked beat, suggesting it's stamina laden. Shaped similarly behind Our Vic when he stuck on well at one pace looking stamin lade beating good sticks, Jass, Prince De Beauchen, Cloudy Lane, Mon Mome and in form horses at the time like Fortification. Confirmed impression LTO at Cheltenham when running a good race, finishing mid div having been outpaced once again.
Has experience despite his age, been jumping fences since he was a 4yo in France.
Has a weight below 11-0, massive+ in the National regardless of what the stat and trends haters say, weight beats horses in the National and it has done consistently for nearly 2 decades now. Yes one day the trend will break but until then run with something that works rather than try and break it year upon year until it happens just so you can say an 'I told you so' when it does happen.
Has jumped round the fences.
Shown steady improvement all season over fences and getting better with every run.
Has a yard coming into some good form given the recent efforts of complete rags they have run.
Negatives:
He's a 7yo and the stats don't favour 7yo's although given his form in his native France he'll be one of the best prepared 7yo's to ever run in the race and there actually haven't been that many 7yo's that have run in the race since one last won it.
Might not stay but shapes like a stayer in every single outing in the UK to date and simply hasn't had the chance to prove himself over further as yet - simply given his profile and price, taking a risk on his stamina is worth it.
Aaaaaaaaaaand...that's it imo. As said...40/1 maybe, 100+ it's been all week...silly price.
Drinks on me if it wins :)
As people have suggested on here, should be around a 40's shot, nowhere near a 100/1 shot.
Positives:
Bought for the race and trained with this in mind all year.
Shapes like a stayer. Won at Towcester FTO over hurdles. Readily outpaced in the Becher having jumped adequatedly, plugged on for 4th once it looked beat, suggesting it's stamina laden. Shaped similarly behind Our Vic when he stuck on well at one pace looking stamin lade beating good sticks, Jass, Prince De Beauchen, Cloudy Lane, Mon Mome and in form horses at the time like Fortification. Confirmed impression LTO at Cheltenham when running a good race, finishing mid div having been outpaced once again.
Has experience despite his age, been jumping fences since he was a 4yo in France.
Has a weight below 11-0, massive+ in the National regardless of what the stat and trends haters say, weight beats horses in the National and it has done consistently for nearly 2 decades now. Yes one day the trend will break but until then run with something that works rather than try and break it year upon year until it happens just so you can say an 'I told you so' when it does happen.
Has jumped round the fences.
Shown steady improvement all season over fences and getting better with every run.
Has a yard coming into some good form given the recent efforts of complete rags they have run.
Negatives:
He's a 7yo and the stats don't favour 7yo's although given his form in his native France he'll be one of the best prepared 7yo's to ever run in the race and there actually haven't been that many 7yo's that have run in the race since one last won it.
Might not stay but shapes like a stayer in every single outing in the UK to date and simply hasn't had the chance to prove himself over further as yet - simply given his profile and price, taking a risk on his stamina is worth it.
Aaaaaaaaaaand...that's it imo. As said...40/1 maybe, 100+ it's been all week...silly price.
Drinks on me if it wins :)
P.S Sorry for any typo's, been a long day and a longer night going through tomorrow's cards!
Been keen on this one myself for a while now, and am on at some decent prices accordingly. Good post above btw.
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