Horse Antepost
Welcome to Live View – Take the tour to learn more
Start Tour
There is currently 1 person viewing this thread.
https://www.saturday-racing.com/races/big-race/featured-tip/
The Cesarewitch is not a race for the faint-hearted. Two miles and two furlongs at Newmarket asks questions that ordinary handicaps simply don't, and this year's field is full of horses with seductive numbers and dangerous profiles. Last year's winner Beylerbeyi is the obvious starting point and deserves enormous respect, but he returns with the handicapper fully awake to what he achieved twelve months ago. Valedictory is much more interesting, he's a progressive four-year-old, arrives off a victory and has the class to make his presence felt, but carrying plenty of weight into unknown territory over this extreme trip just takes a little shine off him at the prices. He's the danger, certainly, but perhaps not the answer.
Lower down the handicap is where my nose really begins to twitch. Maxident at 25/1 has the numbers of a horse who should not be ignored: a mark in the mid-80s, a strong speed figure and an RPR of 114 allied to form figures of 21-221. He looks tailor-made for an each-way attack if his stamina holds. Pole Star and Naval Tribute are two more progressive stayers capable of making the established horses work very hard, while Percy Shelley is the extraordinary outsider at 100/1. He was second in the Cesarewitch Trial over this very course and distance and brings figures of TS104 and RPR115 into the equation. At a three-figure price, I don't need convincing that he's the most likely winner — only that the market may have underestimated him. That's enough to earn him the Value Outsider spot.
But keep coming back to [b**** And Bull[/b]. That's where this race starts to unravel. He's not burdened with the weight of the leading horses, nor are we guessing whether he possesses the stamina required for a Cesarewitch. His recent profile of 629-31 tells us he's arriving in form, and he's already demonstrated that long-distance, big-field handicaps are his game. At around 16/1 we're also being compensated for the risk rather than being asked to take a short price. Emmet Mullins knows exactly what is required to win this race — he did it with The Shunter — and **** And Bull has the look of a horse being brought to Newmarket for precisely this sort of assignment. In a race where others have questions to answer, his answers are beginning to line up rather nicely.
The verdict
The temptation in a Cesarewitch is to keep digging until you've made a case for half the field, but eventually you have to stop sniffing and pounce. Beylerbeyi has to overcome a much tougher handicap position than when winning last year; Valedictory has the class but must prove the stamina; Maxident has outstanding handicap numbers but still has to translate them into this unique test; and Percy Shelley is the 100/1 rogue in the pack who could make everyone look rather foolish. [b**** AND BULL[/b], however, brings together the pieces I want most: stamina, current form, a workable weight, big-field experience, the right connections and a price that still leaves some meat on the bone. When they turn for home after more than two miles and the fashionable horses begin discovering just how long the Rowley Mile can feel, I want the horse whose strongest card is staying and **** AND BULL at 16/1 is the selection. Good luck,
1. **** AND BULL 16/1
2. VALEDICTORY 12/1
3. MAXIDENT 25/1
4. PERCY SHELLEY 100/1 ew
The Cesarewitch is not a race for the faint-hearted. Two miles and two furlongs at Newmarket asks questions that ordinary handicaps simply don't, and this year's field is full of horses with seductive numbers and dangerous profiles. Last year's winner Beylerbeyi is the obvious starting point and deserves enormous respect, but he returns with the handicapper fully awake to what he achieved twelve months ago. Valedictory is much more interesting, he's a progressive four-year-old, arrives off a victory and has the class to make his presence felt, but carrying plenty of weight into unknown territory over this extreme trip just takes a little shine off him at the prices. He's the danger, certainly, but perhaps not the answer.
Lower down the handicap is where my nose really begins to twitch. Maxident at 25/1 has the numbers of a horse who should not be ignored: a mark in the mid-80s, a strong speed figure and an RPR of 114 allied to form figures of 21-221. He looks tailor-made for an each-way attack if his stamina holds. Pole Star and Naval Tribute are two more progressive stayers capable of making the established horses work very hard, while Percy Shelley is the extraordinary outsider at 100/1. He was second in the Cesarewitch Trial over this very course and distance and brings figures of TS104 and RPR115 into the equation. At a three-figure price, I don't need convincing that he's the most likely winner — only that the market may have underestimated him. That's enough to earn him the Value Outsider spot.
But keep coming back to [b**** And Bull[/b]. That's where this race starts to unravel. He's not burdened with the weight of the leading horses, nor are we guessing whether he possesses the stamina required for a Cesarewitch. His recent profile of 629-31 tells us he's arriving in form, and he's already demonstrated that long-distance, big-field handicaps are his game. At around 16/1 we're also being compensated for the risk rather than being asked to take a short price. Emmet Mullins knows exactly what is required to win this race — he did it with The Shunter — and **** And Bull has the look of a horse being brought to Newmarket for precisely this sort of assignment. In a race where others have questions to answer, his answers are beginning to line up rather nicely.
The verdict
The temptation in a Cesarewitch is to keep digging until you've made a case for half the field, but eventually you have to stop sniffing and pounce. Beylerbeyi has to overcome a much tougher handicap position than when winning last year; Valedictory has the class but must prove the stamina; Maxident has outstanding handicap numbers but still has to translate them into this unique test; and Percy Shelley is the 100/1 rogue in the pack who could make everyone look rather foolish. [b**** AND BULL[/b], however, brings together the pieces I want most: stamina, current form, a workable weight, big-field experience, the right connections and a price that still leaves some meat on the bone. When they turn for home after more than two miles and the fashionable horses begin discovering just how long the Rowley Mile can feel, I want the horse whose strongest card is staying and **** AND BULL at 16/1 is the selection. Good luck,
1. **** AND BULL 16/1
2. VALEDICTORY 12/1
3. MAXIDENT 25/1
4. PERCY SHELLEY 100/1 ew
Show More
Post Your Reply
Please login to post a reply.
Wonder
Instance ID: 13539