The Juddmonte International and other York races

Be a blow the the Gosdens if Ombudsman gets beat as they've kept him fresh for this.
I suppose they want the rain to stay away as well.
The horse who probably wants a bit of ease in the ground is Almaqam.Reproduces the form
from his GP1 Win in Ireland earlier in the year could go well @ decent odds.

I've backed Ombudsman a few times previously, including when he won this last year. So I like the horse but, for me, he's been overrated. Last year I had him 4lbs short of my benchmark for a typical older horse Gp1 winner. This year I have him 3lbs higher than last season. It seems all the firms rate him an above average POW winner, but in the previous seven years I have Mostahdaf, Crystal Ocean and Poet's Word all higher. Ombudsman's POW win was visually impressive, but the time was only borderline Gp1, with Minnie Hauk and Daryz not going on from 3 to 4, and Almaqam regressing after his Curragh win.

That said, I reckon if Ombudsman could repeat his POW performance exactly, and Constitution River replicated his Eclipse win then Ombudsman would have a 2lbs advantage (about a length) on these wfa terms. As an improving 3yo with a peak effort last time I would generally expect CR to run very close to his last win. As the Eclipse was run a bit too fast too early there's even the possibility he might improve again, but I wouldn't be banking on that.

I wouldn't be as confident about Ombudsman running to his very best. In previous years when I've clocked 5yos improving 3lbs or less most of them regressed at least a few pounds next time out. All horses are individuals and of course it's possible that Ombudsman won't follow that pattern, especially as he's been given a decent break. However, I prefer to play the percentages and personally I'd have the front two in the betting the other way around. Either way, in a race that could be fine margins if both runners do perform I think CR is the value and he's the one I'm backing.

Just got nutted Almaqam.

Very well done JTOTD.

Just got nutted Almaqam by Item who didn't get the easiest of runs either.
Only the Derby flop stops him being unbeaten.
OP
wd
   GL

That posts gone through a bit better!.
Strange that was.

Well done Jaytrump.
Great shout

well done jaytrump .

OK guys the Juddmonte is history now. It was a messy race. One trainers big plan back-fired big time, and another was it seems man marked, or was it this 'Zonal' marking thingy. Looking forward to analysis from 'Figgis'. Maybe this unexpected 'Item' can be marked up a little. I took great confidence from 'Figgis' in yesterday's analysis. He was correct again in a lot of what he said. I'd say ground change not known at time. Horses over rated, again. Look at Crystal Ocean horse of the year . So come on guys more winners please for my holidays. Harvest festival not so far away now. Come on Foylsey your good for a big price winner or two.

The shocking run by Morrophore in the Galtres confirms my view that Gosden is way out of form. A few 2yos might win with 2 stone in hand but in competitive races they are a stone behind their form.

And the false favourite in the last today was never sighted!

JTOTD, Item was my Derby bet, where obviously he ran below par. For the International I have him only 2lbs higher than his Dante win. The ground was blamed for the poor Derby run, which was probably true, but going into the Derby my main concern was that he appeared to have quite a hard race in the Dante. I thought he also had quite a tough race in the International, so that would be a worry for me today.

Constitution River was clearly below par at York. On his Eclipse performance I have him 4lbs higher than Item. I remember Dylan Thomas being under par at York before coming back to form in this race, and it would be no surprise to see CR do the same. That said, I think he's priced about right given his latest effort, so it's debatable if he represents any value.

On 'Item' Figgis I agree probably hard races taking their toll, and trainer now seems to back up your opinion as he states 'Item' could be put away till next year. I'm not completely taken in about this story on the 'VIRUS'. That man is a great story teller. This probably just another one. I have always thought that he would make a great 'Senachai' which is a very old type of Irish word for guys that eked a living out of spilling yarns, mostly non-factual. I doubt it would have been mentioned if the hoped for stallion scraped home. Foley a good man to be in your corner. Will miss him in Listowel. Keep well Figgis for me it's always good to get your views.

JTOTD, yes I'm also doubtful that the virus story is the explanation for all of the beaten favourites from the yard. Constitution River has been hyped but it's still clear that he hasn't run to form on his last two starts. They went very hard in the Eclipse and finished slow, and with the benefit of hindsight it's likely that CR had a harder race than seemed apparent at the time. There's always a tendency to downgrade previous form when a horse doesn't back it up next time, but it's just a fact that some horses have a shorter shelf life at the top than others.

As for Item, personally I'll be glad if they make the decision to put him away for next season. As connections have been debating whether to run him or Kalpana in the Arc. I see Kalpana as an absolute stand out for the race.

*standout

I think you took all the tens.

7/1 now seems best for Kalpana. I see Purview is travelling for his next race. I wonder what DKW thought after his last run? Always one to speak out he seems to have kept quiet here when stevie wunder could see CT Keane got everything so wrong on champions weekend. Still an interesting horse but hopefully they opt for local jockey on this expedition.