Horse Antepost
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17 Aug 26
15:37
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29 Jan 11
Ok now lets get some winners here this week. I am considering 'Item' as a strong each way chance. I hear he is in terrific form and jockey confidently expecting big run.
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Be a blow the the Gosdens if Ombudsman gets beat as they've kept him fresh for this.
I suppose they want the rain to stay away as well. The horse who probably wants a bit of ease in the ground is Almaqam.Reproduces the form from his GP1 Win in Ireland earlier in the year could go well @ decent odds. |
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I've backed Ombudsman a few times previously, including when he won this last year. So I like the horse but, for me, he's been overrated. Last year I had him 4lbs short of my benchmark for a typical older horse Gp1 winner. This year I have him 3lbs higher than last season. It seems all the firms rate him an above average POW winner, but in the previous seven years I have Mostahdaf, Crystal Ocean and Poet's Word all higher. Ombudsman's POW win was visually impressive, but the time was only borderline Gp1, with Minnie Hauk and Daryz not going on from 3 to 4, and Almaqam regressing after his Curragh win.
That said, I reckon if Ombudsman could repeat his POW performance exactly, and Constitution River replicated his Eclipse win then Ombudsman would have a 2lbs advantage (about a length) on these wfa terms. As an improving 3yo with a peak effort last time I would generally expect CR to run very close to his last win. As the Eclipse was run a bit too fast too early there's even the possibility he might improve again, but I wouldn't be banking on that. I wouldn't be as confident about Ombudsman running to his very best. In previous years when I've clocked 5yos improving 3lbs or less most of them regressed at least a few pounds next time out. All horses are individuals and of course it's possible that Ombudsman won't follow that pattern, especially as he's been given a decent break. However, I prefer to play the percentages and personally I'd have the front two in the betting the other way around. Either way, in a race that could be fine margins if both runners do perform I think CR is the value and he's the one I'm backing. |
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Just got nutted Almaqam.
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Very well done JTOTD.
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Just got nutted Almaqam by Item who didn't get the easiest of runs either.
Only the Derby flop stops him being unbeaten. OP wd GL |
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That posts gone through a bit better!.
Strange that was. |
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Well done Jaytrump.
Great shout |
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well done jaytrump .
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OK guys the Juddmonte is history now. It was a messy race. One trainers big plan back-fired big time, and another was it seems man marked, or was it this 'Zonal' marking thingy. Looking forward to analysis from 'Figgis'. Maybe this unexpected 'Item' can be marked up a little. I took great confidence from 'Figgis' in yesterday's analysis. He was correct again in a lot of what he said. I'd say ground change not known at time. Horses over rated, again. Look at Crystal Ocean horse of the year
 . So come on guys more winners please for my holidays. Harvest festival not so far away now. Come on Foylsey your good for a big price winner or two. |
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The shocking run by Morrophore in the Galtres confirms my view that Gosden is way out of form. A few 2yos might win with 2 stone in hand but in competitive races they are a stone behind their form.
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And the false favourite in the last today was never sighted!
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