2026 Arc de Triomphe...

No bet for me in yesterday's KG. My pick would've been Calandagan, but even though his previous win showed the possibility he could still be as good as ever, there was no absolute proof, so his price was short enough. Immediately after watching the race I assumed that Calandagan was below his best 4yo form, especially with Lambourn finishing quite close. After comparing times I still believe Calandagan was below his peak, but not by as much as I expected. I have Kalpana up 8lbs on her previous best, and it's up with the fastest performances I've seen from a middle distance mare.

In the past it has proved difficult for a horse to win the KG and Arc in the same season, particularly an older horse. I'd say that's mainly due to most KG winners also putting up big efforts either side of the KG and being knackered for the Arc. However, Kalpana's two other outings this season were pretty tame efforts, and she's clearly come on a bundle since then. There's such a dearth of genuine Gp1 12f performers this year, so if Balding keeps her fresh for an Arc attempt I see her as an extremely likely winner.

I think the winner will come from one of the ARC Trials runners. I hope it's my selection, soon to be finalised definitively. As ever purely on hope than concrete form.

Where are the runners for the trials?
I can't see any entries.

I put the entries up yesterday on the other thread, I should have posted it here.

(The thread)

My bets are not looking great so far.
Diamond Necklace, a possible but probably go for the Opera.
Behrayna appears to be injured, looking at the betting.
Varandir doesn't look good enough.

Diamond Necklace is heading to an ARC Trial apparently. This could mean the filly is more likely ARC bound, if she stays the extra distance and wins. And, the betting market on Con River doing the same is a bookies' ruse.

Diamond Necklace is more than likely going to run in the 10F GP1 Prix Jean Romanet.
She wins that & goes on to win the Arc, she'll be the 1ST to do so.

The Jean Romanet is a 10f race. So, The ARC is not a definite, is it?

With the Arc in mind, I was a bit surprised to see Kalpana going for today's Yorkshire Oaks, only 26 days after the big KG effort. If we could be sure she is still at her peak I would make her as short as 1/3 for this. As the only runner I see with even the potential to give her a race is Minnie Hauk. At present, Minnie Hauk hasn't gone on from 3 to 4. The time she put up when beaten in the POW was only up to her 3yo best, so she hasn't made any wfa improvement. MH has had four runs this season, but O'Brien's Found had six runs before she finally made wfa improvement in the Irish Champion Stakes. So it's certainly not impossible MH could still progress, but I wouldn't be interested in taking a punt on that happening.

As for the 3yos, Johanna Walsh looked impressive last time but it was a moderate level. Her and the rest will need Kalpana to be still feeling the effects of the KG and drop a level to beat her, either that or some kind of falsely run race. If Kalpana is right on her game today then I think the jockey has to be careful. I wouldn't want to see her being ridden out in a fast time if they want to keep her primed for the Arc.

To me Kalpana needs the ground no softer than Good in the Arc.

Diamond Necklace is 4/9 for the Prix JL Romanet over 10f at Deuville on Sunday. Aventure is one of the runners, and she may provide a sterner test than what Diamond Necklace encountered in her last race.

What a filly Aventure! 1s time out and giving weight, and a thumping to Diamond Necklace. Another bites the dust from AOB / Coolmore. Another hyped horse. Their ARC formidable charges are getting thinner and thinner.

I certainly don't think Aventure is excepional and today' Romenet wasn;t run in a fast time for the apparent conditions.
Possible that Diamond Necklace's stamina is stretched at 10 F in soft conditions

A decision has been made. Connections of Maltese Cross is this way bound. I was impressed with the way he dispatched Pierre Bonnard and Christmas Day in The Voltigeur giving 5 lbs to the former. The added bonus is Maltese Cross goes on any ground, and he stays 12f very well.

Could Maltese Cross atone for the unfortunate defeat of Sea Of Class who was lumbered with a car park (15) draw?

I'm surprised Maltese Cross is as short as he is. In my opinion he isn't close to Arc winning standard. He looked quite impressive in the Voltigeur, but the times show that the race fell apart around him. Pierre Bonnard and Christmas Day performed well below their best. In his favour I have him improving 3lbs on his Derby effort and there's no saying he can't improve more, but not for me.

The Trials have come and gone. Nothing has impressed him, not even Daryz. Friendly Soul beating Pink Panthera) and Varandir beating Alam are not ARC winning form.

so what is arc winning form iyo impossible ?

Lovely trial for Daryz yesterday, 2ND Arc beckons if he stays fit.

Hi Penzance.
I backed Daryz last year as one of my Arc team. Not backed this year due to the AP prices available and can't quite believe that it is now around 2/1 after yesterday. I can't quite see that it has proven to have improved in line of weight for age, as a 4 year old this season and yeaterday's race run was around 5 seconds slowerr than the Neil carrying the same weight ( in the Arc he'll have to give 6 lbs). Last year, Daryz had a good low draw but, depending on the number of runners, the odds are only 50/50 that he'll get a good draw again.
Surely he's far too short ?
What am I missing ?

'FOYLESWAR', the winners of the Trials did not float my boat, not even Daryz. The race itself did not prove Daryz had improved, just he retained his ability. I do not value his triumph last year; his run at Ascot was abysmal. This year he'll not have the wfa concession.

The win of Friendly Soul was devalued because of the proximity of Pink Panthera - a non-12f horse; Maltese Cross beat Varandir despite encountering a traffic issue And, no wfa concession this year for Daryz.

I think a 3yr old will win this year. But, which one and on what ground? I hope Diamond Necklace is probably prepped, if she shows.

Hi Penzance
When I asked - What am I missing, it may have come across as being flippant but it was meant as a gemuine question.
I was looking for valued opinions from yourself, Figgs, Foyls etc.
I backed Treve AP when it won its first Arc but went against it the second time as I thought its form leading into the Arc wasn't at the required level, much to my cost.
Perhaps there's a parallel here with Daryz but of course, Daryz is much shorter in the market.
Opinions ?

No worries.
I think he's a very good colt & he also didn't run @ 2 so should still
have improvement in him.Has an excellent record in France where you could
say he's unlucky not to be 8/8 there.I see the 2 main dangers in Maltese
Cross & Item if he runs, who's looked good in his last couple of runs, if
he gets the trip.Epsom & the ground combined might've had a say in the
Derby performance.Apart from Daryz's Ascot run he's done everything right.
  GL

Thanks Penzance

I can't quite see that it has proven to have improved in line of weight for age, as a 4 year old this season

It hasn't. The two Gp1s he won in France earlier this year were terrible quality and he didn't need to have progressed to take both easily. He was then found out in the KG, which was a proper Gp1 this year. Last season he stepped up massively when winning the Arc. Maybe he can do the same again, but like you, mcampo13, I wouldn't want to back him.

Apologies, should have said found out in the POW.

Thanks Figgs

Two thoughts about the result of the Prix Niel.

1. Varandir put up a very decent performance in both collateral form and finishing split. Good enough imo to be considered as a potential winner and at a price worth backing

2.Benevenuto Cellini is  better than he looked . He probably would not have won,  which given his price, was disappointing but there are reasons to be positive. Up to the 200m pole he was level with Varandir  but as he weakened he was cut up by both that horse and Alam and Pearled Majesty who are not without a shout in the Arc. Moore looked after BC after that . No comments have come from AOB or Moore yet. My concern about BC is the fact that he hung on ground which should have suited him. A price of 50.0+ is an over-reaction imo. AOB commented beforehand that he had given the horse a break.

Varandir ran a decent race however, the form may not be sufficient to win this race. A better proposition would be Maltese Cross, I believe. Also, Graffard and Princess Zahra have multiple bullets.

I think after the performance of Ben in the Prix Niel he'd be most unlikely to turn up. He hung, and looked a spent force. He'd be pulverised and this can only devalue his triumph in the Irish Derby.

The Aga Khan representative stated after Varandir's win that it wasn't an impossibility that they might run 2 in the Arc.

He’s a gorgeous-looking horse and he’s improved mentally a lot. He had quite a hard race in the Grand Prix so we decided not to take him to Deauville, and now he’s in great form. He worked with Daryz this week and he was right next to Alam last time, in a race where Maltese Cross has gone on to frank the form.
Nemone Routh, racing manager for the Aga Khan Studs, owners of Varandir



Until we hear from AOB its pure speculation when and where  BC ends up. Could be Paris, could be the States, could be Ascot, or Hong Kong

He's just ready to start back and will improve for the run, but I must say he's very well in himself. If the ground was decent, then the Arc would be the plan for him but there is the Breeders' Cup Turf on his radar, as well, and Hong Kong is also on his programme at the moment
Aidan O'Brien

NB.both comments prior to Trials

I do hope Ben runs for his backers. When was the last time AOB / Coolmore ran a Derby winner (Epsom or Curragh) in the ARC?

AOB / Coolmore would run their Epsom and/or Curragh Oaks winners eg Minnie Hauk and Snowfall.

The Arc has been mentioned as a possibility for Purview, so it'll be interesting to see how he runs today. I have him putting up a Gp2 performance when winning the Listed race first time out this year. He wasn't as impressive when winning the Gp3, but that was a slowly run affair which didn't allow him to show his true superiority.

Weld has held him back since then so you'd assume that he has plenty left in the tank. Although it's arguable that sometimes you need to strike while the iron's hot and you can miss the opportunity by waiting too long. On his best form I expect him to win today and have backed him, but he's going to need to improve around 9lbs to trouble a peak Kalpana.

AOB revealed in an interview yesterday that his horses have been suffering fror a low grade infection for the past 2 months.

That just might explain why he hasn't had his usual success. Must be a concern for his Arc entries.

Jan Brueghel ran a promising race in the Irish St Leger yesterday after a breather, when not messed with, if he turns up. I think he'd be a 'Place' prospect here esp if the pace is strong. He's not ground dependent either.

Notwithstanding, this is still a lottery with no outstanding 3 yr olds - colt or filly.

Fast ground being reported for Arc day.

Groundstaff are aiming for about 3.3 on the penetrometer, which in GoingStick terms would be something between good and good to firm, although the French description of 'bon souple' is often mistranslated in English as good to soft. Racing Post

Sunly going for the longer race,Alam removed from betting with some firms,what happened there?

Delashay • September 26, 2026 12:12 PM BST
Disappointed for them, late maturing horse, I see bills and days in the year removed him, shame for the race and hope it’s not fatal.


Qatar Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe: Alam forfait
One big week away from the big event, Mikel Delzangles' resident has to give up. It’s a great French chance that is disappearing.

It’s a hard blow for the French competitor who will be at the start of the next Qatar Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe (Gr. 1) on Sunday 4 October. Alam will not be in the game due to a major setback. Mikel Delzangles' team announced their withdrawal this morning on social media.

Winner of the Prix Greffulhe (Gr. 3), Zelzal’s son then finished fifth and third in the Qatar Prix du Jockey Club and the Cygames Grand Prix de Paris (Gr. 1), after very good finishes. For his return, in the Qatar Prix Niel, he finished second, applying the same tactic. He announced himself as one of the very big underdogs in the biggest race of the year at a canter.

And for Sandown whom I saw had mentioned him.

Delashay • September 21, 2026 12:19 PM BST
Heads up Bread ‘N Butter


Christiane Head has won the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe as a coach three times: in 1979 with Three Troikas, in 2013 and 2014 with Trêve. She has not been training herself since the end of 2018. She's still not completely out of the arc.

Pearled Majesty, in which she holds a half stake, could compete in ParisLongchamp on October 4. The stallion is trained by Mauricio Delcher-Sanchez. After his third place in the Prix Niel, it is clear: the Prix Dollar the day before is off the table. Remains the Arc.

Delcher-Sanchez, however, makes the start dependent on the weather: if it rains, Pearled Majesty runs in the Arc. If the ground stays fast, you wait for the Champion Stakes on October 17th.

Delashay • September 28, 2026 12:27 PM BST
You can take

15 off the list wirh a question mark, they’ve changed their chune regarding that going and wanting rain!

2026 Qatar Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe – Mauricio Delcher-Sanchez: “Back in the spring, we were already dreaming of the Arc with Pearled Majesty...”
Report – Having finished ninth in the Qatar Prix du Jockey Club in the spring, the powerful Pearled Majesty is set to line up in fine form for the Qatar Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe this Sunday, 4 October, at Longchamp. As he has done since his debut, he will be wearing the colours of Christiane Head, a leading figure in the racing calendar’s flagship event. Marie Perez went to meet the colt.


Having won three of his five races this season, Pearled Majesty is proving his progress over time. It must be said that, with his imposing build, this son of Persian King and Perle d’Auge perhaps needed more time than some. Having won his first race last year at the age of two on his third start, he has established himself this season with three victories, notably in the prestigious Prix Noailles and Prix Eugène Adam. On 6 September, on his debut over the 2,400-metre distance of the Qatar Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe, Pearled Majesty secured an encouraging third place in the Qatar Prix Niel.

They clearly like talking CRUD!

4 days before the Arc and only 40 posts!

It seems like only yesterday when at this point you could expect 10 times that number!

Don't know about anyone else but this secret draw, load of ole cobblers
to me.What purpose does it serve?

Keeping the draw a secret is an own goal, I firmly believe. I think if the idea  was to maintain interest the suspension will only negatively affect the volume of bets.

sandown....... the arc thread on the hr forum is busy and buzzing .

we dont know the draw yet but for me daryz is too short won a couple of group trials but was odds on to do so ,graff also saying the best he has trained he may be right but not for me ,the 3yos get the allowances and need respecting but not a lot between them imo. at the prices and one who may have been underestimated is friendly soul a 5 yo who won the 2024  opera and this years vermille 10 runs 6 wins 2 places had a break after a setback but has been brought along steadily could have gone for an opera repeat but connections have rolled the dice for the arc ,a prominent racer she could get an early lead proved she gets the trip last time keeping on well and should avoid any trouble in running 25/1 b365 nrnb atm looks fair imo.selection friendly soul 25/1 hoping for nbiggern on her3e .good luck opinions encouraged.

My two are
Kalpana
Varandir


Likely Good to Fast ground according to forecasts and current ground via Turftrax.

draws been made happy enough with how mine are berthed good luck all.

Got a good draw, Daryz, so no excuses on that front.Not with the going either
I'd thought as they are running Bay City Roller.Good colt this, who with a trouble
free run should get a 2ND Arc on his CV.
   GL ALL

I have already spoken about Daryz and why I don't believe he's actually proved this season that he's improved in line with wfa. He did appear to win very easily last time so of course it's possible that he's much better than the bare form, but at this kind of price I want to see the proof. Making a selection has been easier for me this year than usual. As I reckon Kalpana in winning the KG is the only runner to have put up a genuine Gp1 winning speed figure this season. I see the RP put her up only 1lb that day but I made it an 8lbs improvement on anything she'd done before.

The worry going into the Yorkshire Oaks was that she'd put up another big effort and leave her best behind for the Arc. It was a horrible race to watch as a backer, and she was obviously all out at the finish. However, they went very hard and Keane asked her to pick up sooner than ideal. For me, a race is usually more taxing on a horse when it is allowed to run optimally at its very fastest. Whereas being asked to run inefficiently and therefore having a tougher final furlong than necessary will obviously still tire a horse, but it should be able to recover. At least that's the theory . I've had nibbles ante post and I've backed her again.

Well done Penzance and all Daryz winners
Like Figgs, always too shorter price for me to consider this time around.

Well done penzance, unlike me, you always believed in Daryz this season. Bay City Roller finishing second again, so maybe I've also underrated that one. But in truth Daryz looked like he won within himself.

Some post race observations given

1. 5 lengths covered the first 10
2. 2nd and 3rd drawn 15 & 16.
3. Draw results. 1. 9th 2.13th  3. 8th 4. 9th
4. Time Fast .1.29 secs

It was a very competitive race, run in a fast time, where the draw did not provide an edge, but jockeyship did with Barzelona, Murphy and Soumillon all ignoring their draws.

On the issue of how good is Daryz, the RP have him on 126.Personally I would have him higher on 130+ but I dont subscribe to  the standard methodology.