2026 Arc de Triomphe...

No bet for me in yesterday's KG. My pick would've been Calandagan, but even though his previous win showed the possibility he could still be as good as ever, there was no absolute proof, so his price was short enough. Immediately after watching the race I assumed that Calandagan was below his best 4yo form, especially with Lambourn finishing quite close. After comparing times I still believe Calandagan was below his peak, but not by as much as I expected. I have Kalpana up 8lbs on her previous best, and it's up with the fastest performances I've seen from a middle distance mare.

In the past it has proved difficult for a horse to win the KG and Arc in the same season, particularly an older horse. I'd say that's mainly due to most KG winners also putting up big efforts either side of the KG and being knackered for the Arc. However, Kalpana's two other outings this season were pretty tame efforts, and she's clearly come on a bundle since then. There's such a dearth of genuine Gp1 12f performers this year, so if Balding keeps her fresh for an Arc attempt I see her as an extremely likely winner.

I think the winner will come from one of the ARC Trials runners. I hope it's my selection, soon to be finalised definitively. As ever purely on hope than concrete form.

Where are the runners for the trials?
I can't see any entries.

I put the entries up yesterday on the other thread, I should have posted it here.

(The thread)

My bets are not looking great so far.
Diamond Necklace, a possible but probably go for the Opera.
Behrayna appears to be injured, looking at the betting.
Varandir doesn't look good enough.

Diamond Necklace is heading to an ARC Trial apparently. This could mean the filly is more likely ARC bound, if she stays the extra distance and wins. And, the betting market on Con River doing the same is a bookies' ruse.

Diamond Necklace is more than likely going to run in the 10F GP1 Prix Jean Romanet.
She wins that & goes on to win the Arc, she'll be the 1ST to do so.

The Jean Romanet is a 10f race. So, The ARC is not a definite, is it?

With the Arc in mind, I was a bit surprised to see Kalpana going for today's Yorkshire Oaks, only 26 days after the big KG effort. If we could be sure she is still at her peak I would make her as short as 1/3 for this. As the only runner I see with even the potential to give her a race is Minnie Hauk. At present, Minnie Hauk hasn't gone on from 3 to 4. The time she put up when beaten in the POW was only up to her 3yo best, so she hasn't made any wfa improvement. MH has had four runs this season, but O'Brien's Found had six runs before she finally made wfa improvement in the Irish Champion Stakes. So it's certainly not impossible MH could still progress, but I wouldn't be interested in taking a punt on that happening.

As for the 3yos, Johanna Walsh looked impressive last time but it was a moderate level. Her and the rest will need Kalpana to be still feeling the effects of the KG and drop a level to beat her, either that or some kind of falsely run race. If Kalpana is right on her game today then I think the jockey has to be careful. I wouldn't want to see her being ridden out in a fast time if they want to keep her primed for the Arc.

To me Kalpana needs the ground no softer than Good in the Arc.

Diamond Necklace is 4/9 for the Prix JL Romanet over 10f at Deuville on Sunday. Aventure is one of the runners, and she may provide a sterner test than what Diamond Necklace encountered in her last race.

What a filly Aventure! 1s time out and giving weight, and a thumping to Diamond Necklace. Another bites the dust from AOB / Coolmore. Another hyped horse. Their ARC formidable charges are getting thinner and thinner.

I certainly don't think Aventure is excepional and today' Romenet wasn;t run in a fast time for the apparent conditions.
Possible that Diamond Necklace's stamina is stretched at 10 F in soft conditions

A decision has been made. Connections of Maltese Cross is this way bound. I was impressed with the way he dispatched Pierre Bonnard and Christmas Day in The Voltigeur giving 5 lbs to the former. The added bonus is Maltese Cross goes on any ground, and he stays 12f very well.

Could Maltese Cross atone for the unfortunate defeat of Sea Of Class who was lumbered with a car park (15) draw?

I'm surprised Maltese Cross is as short as he is. In my opinion he isn't close to Arc winning standard. He looked quite impressive in the Voltigeur, but the times show that the race fell apart around him. Pierre Bonnard and Christmas Day performed well below their best. In his favour I have him improving 3lbs on his Derby effort and there's no saying he can't improve more, but not for me.