Horse Antepost
Welcome to Live View – Take the tour to learn more
Start Tour
There is currently 1 person viewing this thread.
Kalpana won the King George well today but I think she's a bit suspect on Soft
ground as she was btn quite easily last year in this & I think she's a better horse
on better ground.If the ground does come up Good or slightly faster do think she
will go well if in the same form as today.
I know he currently heads the Mkt but Daryz looks to be in training for 1 thing,to
win this again but he might need cut in the ground.The 2 x he's run out of France
he's been disappointing tbh but his record in France is 7/8 atm.Only 7/2 books &
4s on here though.
Interesting to see what others reckon on the race.
ground as she was btn quite easily last year in this & I think she's a better horse
on better ground.If the ground does come up Good or slightly faster do think she
will go well if in the same form as today.
I know he currently heads the Mkt but Daryz looks to be in training for 1 thing,to
win this again but he might need cut in the ground.The 2 x he's run out of France
he's been disappointing tbh but his record in France is 7/8 atm.Only 7/2 books &
4s on here though.
Interesting to see what others reckon on the race.
Show More
No bet for me in yesterday's KG. My pick would've been Calandagan, but even though his previous win showed the possibility he could still be as good as ever, there was no absolute proof, so his price was short enough. Immediately after watching the race I assumed that Calandagan was below his best 4yo form, especially with Lambourn finishing quite close. After comparing times I still believe Calandagan was below his peak, but not by as much as I expected. I have Kalpana up 8lbs on her previous best, and it's up with the fastest performances I've seen from a middle distance mare.
In the past it has proved difficult for a horse to win the KG and Arc in the same season, particularly an older horse. I'd say that's mainly due to most KG winners also putting up big efforts either side of the KG and being knackered for the Arc. However, Kalpana's two other outings this season were pretty tame efforts, and she's clearly come on a bundle since then. There's such a dearth of genuine Gp1 12f performers this year, so if Balding keeps her fresh for an Arc attempt I see her as an extremely likely winner.
In the past it has proved difficult for a horse to win the KG and Arc in the same season, particularly an older horse. I'd say that's mainly due to most KG winners also putting up big efforts either side of the KG and being knackered for the Arc. However, Kalpana's two other outings this season were pretty tame efforts, and she's clearly come on a bundle since then. There's such a dearth of genuine Gp1 12f performers this year, so if Balding keeps her fresh for an Arc attempt I see her as an extremely likely winner.
I think the winner will come from one of the ARC Trials runners. I hope it's my selection, soon to be finalised definitively. As ever purely on hope than concrete form.
Where are the runners for the trials?
I can't see any entries.
I can't see any entries.
I put the entries up yesterday on the other thread, I should have posted it here.
My bets are not looking great so far.
Diamond Necklace, a possible but probably go for the Opera.
Behrayna appears to be injured, looking at the betting.
Varandir doesn't look good enough.
Diamond Necklace, a possible but probably go for the Opera.
Behrayna appears to be injured, looking at the betting.
Varandir doesn't look good enough.
Diamond Necklace is heading to an ARC Trial apparently. This could mean the filly is more likely ARC bound, if she stays the extra distance and wins. And, the betting market on Con River doing the same is a bookies' ruse.
Diamond Necklace is more than likely going to run in the 10F GP1 Prix Jean Romanet.
She wins that & goes on to win the Arc, she'll be the 1ST to do so.
She wins that & goes on to win the Arc, she'll be the 1ST to do so.
The Jean Romanet is a 10f race. So, The ARC is not a definite, is it?
With the Arc in mind, I was a bit surprised to see Kalpana going for today's Yorkshire Oaks, only 26 days after the big KG effort. If we could be sure she is still at her peak I would make her as short as 1/3 for this. As the only runner I see with even the potential to give her a race is Minnie Hauk. At present, Minnie Hauk hasn't gone on from 3 to 4. The time she put up when beaten in the POW was only up to her 3yo best, so she hasn't made any wfa improvement. MH has had four runs this season, but O'Brien's Found had six runs before she finally made wfa improvement in the Irish Champion Stakes. So it's certainly not impossible MH could still progress, but I wouldn't be interested in taking a punt on that happening.
As for the 3yos, Johanna Walsh looked impressive last time but it was a moderate level. Her and the rest will need Kalpana to be still feeling the effects of the KG and drop a level to beat her, either that or some kind of falsely run race. If Kalpana is right on her game today then I think the jockey has to be careful. I wouldn't want to see her being ridden out in a fast time if they want to keep her primed for the Arc.
As for the 3yos, Johanna Walsh looked impressive last time but it was a moderate level. Her and the rest will need Kalpana to be still feeling the effects of the KG and drop a level to beat her, either that or some kind of falsely run race. If Kalpana is right on her game today then I think the jockey has to be careful. I wouldn't want to see her being ridden out in a fast time if they want to keep her primed for the Arc.
To me Kalpana needs the ground no softer than Good in the Arc.
Diamond Necklace is 4/9 for the Prix JL Romanet over 10f at Deuville on Sunday. Aventure is one of the runners, and she may provide a sterner test than what Diamond Necklace encountered in her last race.
What a filly Aventure! 1s time out and giving weight, and a thumping to Diamond Necklace. Another bites the dust from AOB / Coolmore. Another hyped horse. Their ARC formidable charges are getting thinner and thinner.
I certainly don't think Aventure is excepional and today' Romenet wasn;t run in a fast time for the apparent conditions.
Possible that Diamond Necklace's stamina is stretched at 10 F in soft conditions
Possible that Diamond Necklace's stamina is stretched at 10 F in soft conditions
A decision has been made. Connections of Maltese Cross is this way bound. I was impressed with the way he dispatched Pierre Bonnard and Christmas Day in The Voltigeur giving 5 lbs to the former. The added bonus is Maltese Cross goes on any ground, and he stays 12f very well.
Could Maltese Cross atone for the unfortunate defeat of Sea Of Class who was lumbered with a car park (15) draw?
Could Maltese Cross atone for the unfortunate defeat of Sea Of Class who was lumbered with a car park (15) draw?
I'm surprised Maltese Cross is as short as he is. In my opinion he isn't close to Arc winning standard. He looked quite impressive in the Voltigeur, but the times show that the race fell apart around him. Pierre Bonnard and Christmas Day performed well below their best. In his favour I have him improving 3lbs on his Derby effort and there's no saying he can't improve more, but not for me.
The Trials have come and gone. Nothing has impressed him, not even Daryz. Friendly Soul beating Pink Panthera) and Varandir beating Alam are not ARC winning form.
Lovely trial for Daryz yesterday, 2ND Arc beckons if he stays fit.
Hi Penzance.
I backed Daryz last year as one of my Arc team. Not backed this year due to the AP prices available and can't quite believe that it is now around 2/1 after yesterday. I can't quite see that it has proven to have improved in line of weight for age, as a 4 year old this season and yeaterday's race run was around 5 seconds slowerr than the Neil carrying the same weight ( in the Arc he'll have to give 6 lbs). Last year, Daryz had a good low draw but, depending on the number of runners, the odds are only 50/50 that he'll get a good draw again.
Surely he's far too short ?
What am I missing ?
I backed Daryz last year as one of my Arc team. Not backed this year due to the AP prices available and can't quite believe that it is now around 2/1 after yesterday. I can't quite see that it has proven to have improved in line of weight for age, as a 4 year old this season and yeaterday's race run was around 5 seconds slowerr than the Neil carrying the same weight ( in the Arc he'll have to give 6 lbs). Last year, Daryz had a good low draw but, depending on the number of runners, the odds are only 50/50 that he'll get a good draw again.
Surely he's far too short ?
What am I missing ?
'FOYLESWAR', the winners of the Trials did not float my boat, not even Daryz. The race itself did not prove Daryz had improved, just he retained his ability. I do not value his triumph last year; his run at Ascot was abysmal. This year he'll not have the wfa concession.
The win of Friendly Soul was devalued because of the proximity of Pink Panthera - a non-12f horse; Maltese Cross beat Varandir despite encountering a traffic issue And, no wfa concession this year for Daryz.
I think a 3yr old will win this year. But, which one and on what ground? I hope Diamond Necklace is probably prepped, if she shows.
The win of Friendly Soul was devalued because of the proximity of Pink Panthera - a non-12f horse; Maltese Cross beat Varandir despite encountering a traffic issue And, no wfa concession this year for Daryz.
I think a 3yr old will win this year. But, which one and on what ground? I hope Diamond Necklace is probably prepped, if she shows.
Hi Penzance
When I asked - What am I missing, it may have come across as being flippant but it was meant as a gemuine question.
I was looking for valued opinions from yourself, Figgs, Foyls etc.
I backed Treve AP when it won its first Arc but went against it the second time as I thought its form leading into the Arc wasn't at the required level, much to my cost.
Perhaps there's a parallel here with Daryz but of course, Daryz is much shorter in the market.
Opinions ?
When I asked - What am I missing, it may have come across as being flippant but it was meant as a gemuine question.
I was looking for valued opinions from yourself, Figgs, Foyls etc.
I backed Treve AP when it won its first Arc but went against it the second time as I thought its form leading into the Arc wasn't at the required level, much to my cost.
Perhaps there's a parallel here with Daryz but of course, Daryz is much shorter in the market.
Opinions ?
No worries.
I think he's a very good colt & he also didn't run @ 2 so should still
have improvement in him.Has an excellent record in France where you could
say he's unlucky not to be 8/8 there.I see the 2 main dangers in Maltese
Cross & Item if he runs, who's looked good in his last couple of runs, if
he gets the trip.Epsom & the ground combined might've had a say in the
Derby performance.Apart from Daryz's Ascot run he's done everything right.
GL
I think he's a very good colt & he also didn't run @ 2 so should still
have improvement in him.Has an excellent record in France where you could
say he's unlucky not to be 8/8 there.I see the 2 main dangers in Maltese
Cross & Item if he runs, who's looked good in his last couple of runs, if
he gets the trip.Epsom & the ground combined might've had a say in the
Derby performance.Apart from Daryz's Ascot run he's done everything right.
GL
I can't quite see that it has proven to have improved in line of weight for age, as a 4 year old this season
It hasn't. The two Gp1s he won in France earlier this year were terrible quality and he didn't need to have progressed to take both easily. He was then found out in the KG, which was a proper Gp1 this year. Last season he stepped up massively when winning the Arc. Maybe he can do the same again, but like you, mcampo13, I wouldn't want to back him.
It hasn't. The two Gp1s he won in France earlier this year were terrible quality and he didn't need to have progressed to take both easily. He was then found out in the KG, which was a proper Gp1 this year. Last season he stepped up massively when winning the Arc. Maybe he can do the same again, but like you, mcampo13, I wouldn't want to back him.
Two thoughts about the result of the Prix Niel.
1. Varandir put up a very decent performance in both collateral form and finishing split. Good enough imo to be considered as a potential winner and at a price worth backing
2.Benevenuto Cellini is better than he looked . He probably would not have won, which given his price, was disappointing but there are reasons to be positive. Up to the 200m pole he was level with Varandir but as he weakened he was cut up by both that horse and Alam and Pearled Majesty who are not without a shout in the Arc. Moore looked after BC after that . No comments have come from AOB or Moore yet. My concern about BC is the fact that he hung on ground which should have suited him. A price of 50.0+ is an over-reaction imo. AOB commented beforehand that he had given the horse a break.
1. Varandir put up a very decent performance in both collateral form and finishing split. Good enough imo to be considered as a potential winner and at a price worth backing
2.Benevenuto Cellini is better than he looked . He probably would not have won, which given his price, was disappointing but there are reasons to be positive. Up to the 200m pole he was level with Varandir but as he weakened he was cut up by both that horse and Alam and Pearled Majesty who are not without a shout in the Arc. Moore looked after BC after that . No comments have come from AOB or Moore yet. My concern about BC is the fact that he hung on ground which should have suited him. A price of 50.0+ is an over-reaction imo. AOB commented beforehand that he had given the horse a break.
Varandir ran a decent race however, the form may not be sufficient to win this race. A better proposition would be Maltese Cross, I believe. Also, Graffard and Princess Zahra have multiple bullets.
I think after the performance of Ben in the Prix Niel he'd be most unlikely to turn up. He hung, and looked a spent force. He'd be pulverised and this can only devalue his triumph in the Irish Derby.
I think after the performance of Ben in the Prix Niel he'd be most unlikely to turn up. He hung, and looked a spent force. He'd be pulverised and this can only devalue his triumph in the Irish Derby.
The Aga Khan representative stated after Varandir's win that it wasn't an impossibility that they might run 2 in the Arc.
He’s a gorgeous-looking horse and he’s improved mentally a lot. He had quite a hard race in the Grand Prix so we decided not to take him to Deauville, and now he’s in great form. He worked with Daryz this week and he was right next to Alam last time, in a race where Maltese Cross has gone on to frank the form.
Nemone Routh, racing manager for the Aga Khan Studs, owners of Varandir
Until we hear from AOB its pure speculation when and where BC ends up. Could be Paris, could be the States, could be Ascot, or Hong Kong
He's just ready to start back and will improve for the run, but I must say he's very well in himself. If the ground was decent, then the Arc would be the plan for him but there is the Breeders' Cup Turf on his radar, as well, and Hong Kong is also on his programme at the moment
Aidan O'Brien
NB.both comments prior to Trials
He’s a gorgeous-looking horse and he’s improved mentally a lot. He had quite a hard race in the Grand Prix so we decided not to take him to Deauville, and now he’s in great form. He worked with Daryz this week and he was right next to Alam last time, in a race where Maltese Cross has gone on to frank the form.
Nemone Routh, racing manager for the Aga Khan Studs, owners of Varandir
Until we hear from AOB its pure speculation when and where BC ends up. Could be Paris, could be the States, could be Ascot, or Hong Kong
He's just ready to start back and will improve for the run, but I must say he's very well in himself. If the ground was decent, then the Arc would be the plan for him but there is the Breeders' Cup Turf on his radar, as well, and Hong Kong is also on his programme at the moment
Aidan O'Brien
NB.both comments prior to Trials
I do hope Ben runs for his backers. When was the last time AOB / Coolmore ran a Derby winner (Epsom or Curragh) in the ARC?
AOB / Coolmore would run their Epsom and/or Curragh Oaks winners eg Minnie Hauk and Snowfall.
AOB / Coolmore would run their Epsom and/or Curragh Oaks winners eg Minnie Hauk and Snowfall.
Post Your Reply
Please login to post a reply.
Wonder
Instance ID: 13539