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Horse Antepost
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These 160 comments are related to the topic:
2026 Epsom Derby Thread
2026 Epsom Derby Thread
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Replies: 160
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I gotta horse.
When is the last declaration? |
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It's 10am wednesday 3rd June. This is 72 hrs prior the race itself.
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'Delashay', AOB could be replying to your post about him saying things to boost his horses.
AOB: "People think I say things to boost up my horses. I don't. Ever. I only say what I think at the time. Maybe I'm a bit of a dreamer." |
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Is Constitution River a good thing for todays Chantilly outing?
After calmly assessing the race , I can see that he has a favourites chance but he is not a 3.05 chance (BF currently), in my estimation. Leaving aside the hype, and even without the problem of an outside draw, I cannot make him a bet. Add in the wide draw, and he is easy to leave alone although I wouldn't lay him. The once raced Daryzan is impossible to put a price on as it is complete guesswork with him. He won a slowly run race so his shortish price is down to connectios as much as form. I wouldn't rule out a complete outsider winning but no involvement for me. |
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There has been a lot of discussion about who is the better horse, Constitution River or Benvenuto Cellini, but I have them on exactly the same mark. As yet, neither of them anything special, and on a mark more likely to finish placed in a moderate Derby than actually win one. BC's profile is more of a concern, as I don't have him improving at all from 2 to 3. I have CR up 8lbs from last year. That said, he wasn't fully tested last year, so whether he has genuinely improved I couldn't be sure. Obviously both horses have only had the one outing this season so there's no saying they can't come on a bundle. It's just that at these kinds of prices I want to see the proof, not just the potential.
As for today's PDJC. I saw Timeform state that CR had run the fastest Derby trial this century. Well not on my clock. It was nothing special time-wise, and there have been loads of much faster trials. Strictly on figures I actually have Hawk Mountain 1lb higher than CR on his best 2yo form. His trial in France wasn't impressive, however it was slowly run and he still may be capable of going close if returning to his peak. So I have the O'Brien pair ahead of the rest today, but it's not a high bar, and unless one of them improves again it's easily possible one of the lightly raced French 3yos could improve to win. No bet. |
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Its an interesting race to reflect on in that it raises what makes for a good bet and that requires an assessment of all the alternatives. Focussing on just one horse is a mistake. Especially when what we know is not enough to arrive at an opinion. The unknowns here are what effect the wide draw may play, just what is the potential for the improvement potential for several others beside Daryzan. Then the tactics involved in a 16 runner race.
To back a horse around 2/1 I need to think that horse has around an evens chance. That is not true today. I would rather have a bet on the potential of Daryzan at 6/1. No Bet. |
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What a brilliant ride by Moore ,training performance by AOB and team tactics. Very special.
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Sandown, obviously much easier to execute when faced with a field that turned out to be almost total dross.
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Best horse won, with no excuses for the rest. Still a very poor renewal of the PDJC, with less than 4 lengths covering the first 8, including some really mediocre runners. Some serious improvement needed for these horses to be beating genuine Gp1 performers later in the season.
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I think we have seen something special. The time was apparently very fast although I 'll need to see the sectionals before evaluating the race. Clearly the vibes about CR were right . I have BC about the same going into this race, so I'm hopeful that we may see another good horse next Saturday. It doesn't look as competitive as this one.
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I think we have seen something special. The time was apparently very fast although I 'll need to see the sectionals before evaluating the race. Clearly the vibes about CR were right . I have BC about the same going into this race, so I'm hopeful that we may see another good horse next Saturday. It doesn't look as competitive as this one.
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You think that is genuinely Gp1 form? I take the point before the race about the possibility of the draw being a negative for CR. However, the way it panned out I don't see how it became a negative at all in the race itself and see no reason to mark up CR significantly. The race was run well enough to sort the wheat from the chaff, therefore the only reason so many finished in a cluster not far behind was due to it being a poor race.
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You think that is genuinely Gp1 form?
Can't say yet Figgis. Its special because AOB et al dominated the race, not because of the possible form rating. Need to think about the implications for next weekend. I have money running onto the Derby and Oaks so will be giving thought to that next. |
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As stated the French Handicapper had them equal and Montreal upped his, not a great race, bubble burst.
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As for this you can poke it sideways.
The Derby needs you! The King and Queen are actively backing our greatest race - now it’s on the rest of us to do the same Epsom is expected to look busier and better when the premier Classic is staged in front of the monarch on Saturday author image  Lee Mottershead Racing writer of the year |
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Not here to knock AOB. He produced his runners spot on today. Just think that given the opposition proved absolutely dire the stuff being spouted on the racing channels is hyperbolic guff. AOB has achieved far better than this in his career.
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Sandown, I know you're big on Benvenuto Cellini for the Derby (I'm not), which have you backed in the Oaks?
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Precise. Although not heavily involved yet but have got doubles going with CR , CR and P, and CR and BC. Precise needs more thought .Looked impressive at the Curragh but time nothing special. Has got a great finishing kick in her though. Stamina an imponderable. Backed her in the Irish 1000 because of the price. Got carried away a bit at the time.
As for the Derby, will cover that later in the week. |
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Precise & BC I meant to add.
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kincsem • May 30, 2026 3:20 PM BST
I gotta horse. When is the last declaration? This week |
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impossible123 • May 30, 2026 4:01 PM BST
'Delashay', AOB could be replying to your post about him saying things to boost his horses. AOB: "People think I say things to boost up my horses. I don't. Ever. I only say what I think at the time. Maybe I'm a bit of a dreamer." Yeah hi Aiden O’Lennon!  |
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With the close proximity of all these finishes at 2 & 3
Racing Post Trophy, Irish Derby Trials, The Prix Du Jockey Club today, I’m of the opinion that there aren’t any standouts amongst them. |
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Well I was right that Endorsement would win when stepped up to a mile and a half in the first week of June.
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Figgis
In reply, I have backed Legacy Link for the Oaks. She looks an improver over 12f and whilst the ground is now GS I think she will be OK on it. I make her most likely winner and at the price currently around 4.0 is value imo. As for the Derby, without the going change I would be very strong on [b]Bienvenuto Cellini[/b as a horse with all the right attributes for a Derby winner. Tomorrows forecast is not helpful but I am sticking with BC in the hope that Moore will make use of the better ground on the inside with the new ground there. BC looks like he will be handy so I expect Moore to claim the inside. Otherwise, in the event of heavy going, PB could be a contender. |
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Such a difficult race to have a bet in with the going getting worse by the hour and the possibility of them coming stand side where it seems whoever bags the rail about 2f out can’t be passed.
I hope PB wins for Soumillon one of the best jockeys of his generation and it would be nice if he can get a Derby winner on his CV before he retires. Indeed it would be his first English Classic which is hard to believe. |
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Derbys that look poor on paper beforehand can sometimes prove to be better than expected, but I have to say at the moment this does look to be among the weaker Derbys. Last year I had Benvenuto Cellini on a mark that would only see him possibly get a place in a mediocre Derby, with obvious potential to improve on that at 3. Even though he won decisively at Chester I have him only replicating his 2yo mark. Obviously that was his first run of the year and there's the possibility that he can step up again with that run behind him. Nevertheless, when 3yos only replicate their 2yo marks I've seen more go backwards next time than show improvement, so he makes no appeal to me.
I have Item top rated on a mark that would usually only be worth a place in a normal year. So he's vulnerable to an improver, but this might not prove to be an up to scratch Derby. He wasn't exactly all out last time but when watching it I didn't think he had an easy race. I saw a Balding interview where he mentioned the horse had quite a hard race. But they seem happy with him so hopefully he's fully recovered from that. That being his first start this year he may even improve again, but by all accounts he appeared very fit for the Dante, so I'm not banking on improvement today. I'd have him as fav here, so he's my bet. |
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An improved performance from Christmas Day, which I certainly didn't envisage after the Dante run. I have it as a below average winning effort, but definitely not the worst, and a bit faster than the likes of Lambourn, Wings Of Eagles, Harzand and Ruler Of The World. Maybe a few of the runners were hindered by the ground and then there was the stalls incident with the fav. However, I'd still take the winner against any of these that might reoppose him, and I'd take him against Constitution River.
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favourite declared a NR 20 minutes after the race
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He's the most exciting three-year-old in the world
So says the latest hype from the RP. With only the five runs behind him there's still time for Constitution River to convert me, but on racecourse evidence so far, as far as I'm concerned, this horse isn't in the same league as past O'Brien winners, City Of Troy, Paddington, St Mark's Basilica, etc. I've been keen to take him on after the PDJC but today's Eclipse doesn't give much opportunity. Saddadd is a Gp3 horse. The second fav, Gethin, may have pushed Ombudsman close last time, but a combination of Ombudsman conceding weight, not being fully tuned up and the fact that they didn't go quick early meant that the form isn't as good as it looked. I have never recorded Gethin running faster than Listed class. This is pitiful fare for an all age Gp1. Without major improvement from the older horses, the only runner capable of beating an on form CR is O'Brien's second string, Hawk Mountain. I still think his Futurity Trophy win is very marginally the fastest performance from any of these, but so far this year he's been a bit below peak. A poor renewal. |
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Constitution River winning was hardly a surprise against that opposition, but the performance he put up in winning was better than I'd expected. At the moment I still rate him slightly behind those other O'Brien winners mentioned, but he proved today he clearly belongs in that bracket. They went overly fast, resulting in an unusually slow finish and beaten distances exaggerated, but it was still an up to scratch performance. I have Hawk Mountain running right back to his best. I wouldn't be convinced about A Boy Named Susie repeating this level of form next time. He stayed on from the rear passing beaten horses, like so many runners in the past who have run above their usual level in big races. So even if he doesn't go on to frank the form I wouldn't use it as a reason to downgrade today's race.
Today Constitution River put himself clearly above the rest of O'Brien's 3yos with an up to scratch Gp1 winning performance. O'Brien mentioned before the race that he had put on weight. If he continues to progress physically it's possible we might see better from him. However, for now I'll leave referring to him, Bow Echo, Thundering On, etc, as superstars to the RP hype machine. I'll reserve that term for the likes of Brigadier Gerard, Sea The Stars, Frankel. |
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It's July and you haven't backed a winner yet. Some things never change. Keep guessing lad and you know the saying , every pig finds an acorn now and then. You are hopeless.
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Some things never change
No they don't. Like the forum resident aftertiming jerk(cough) only posting after the event  |
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M
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God bless you lad. Had a go at me for being some sort of ballydoyle supporter and then you thought yeah must jump on that band waggon to get a winner. The only problem is you keep picking the wrong one lmfao. You are hopeless. As I say every pig finds an acorn every now and then. Your lines of credit are diminishing every day poor lad. Keep trying though as everyone loves a trier. Will let you know when my horse makes its debut and if you are kind might let you on the inside to claw back some of your vast losses you have incurred in the last 3 years.
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every pig finds an acorn every now and then
Being gutless it should be easy enough to look under your own acorn, and you might just find the nads to put up an opinion before a race. I won't be betting on that, though. Oink |
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My horse making its debut shortly for top trainer in Newmarket. Be kind junior and you never know what comes your way. Bless you as I know you find the game difficult. Hope you haven't lost a further shedful today. Have a lovely weekend.
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Personally miss your input Figgis.
Hopefully you'll post more, again. |
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My horse making its debut shortly for top trainer in Newmarket
BULL-y for you. But, in future, tell it to somebody who has the slightest interest in anything you do  |
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Nice debut from WALL STREET at Leopardstown today, STS, travelled well picked up and was still tugging pulling up, interested to see what he gets priced up at.
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33/1 with Billys
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