Horse Antepost
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A little delayed, here's the latest instalment of the 1000 Guineas antepost discussion thread...!
Back in the 1980s, 1990s and early 2000s this race would regularly go to fillies that had shown top class form in juvenile pattern races, but it has become quite a hard-to-solve puzzle in recent years.
Consider the last 10 winners (official rating prior to the Guineas in brackets):
2025 Desert Flower (117): top-class unbeaten filly at two, including Gr.1 Fillies' Mile
2024 Elmalka (100): Southwell debut winner at two, third on reappearance at three; 28/1 winner in Guineas in five-way photo finish
2023 Mawj (110): just below top class at two (third in Gr.1 Cheveley Park Stakes); won two races at Meydan prior to Guineas
2022 Cachet (109): raced 8 times at two, just below top class, placed in Gr.1 Fillies' Mile; improved on her juvenile form to win Nell Gwyn on reappearance
2021 Mother Earth (111): raced 8 times at two, progressive but just below top class, placed in Gr.1 Breeders' Cup and Gr.1 Fillies' Mile
2020 Love (111): raced 7 times at two, won Gr.1 Moyglare, placed in Gr.1 Fillies' Mile
2019 Hermosa (110): raced 7 times at two, just below top class, placed in Gr.1 Lagardere and Gr.1 Fillies' Mile
2018 Billesdon Brook (99): raced 8 times at two, well below top class (won Gr.3 Prestige Stakes, unplaced in Gr.2 May Hill), shock 66/1 winner of Guineas
2017 Winter (106): maiden winner on third start at two, close 2nd in Gr.3 Guineas trial at three
2016 Minding (120): top class at two, won Gr.1 Moyglare and Gr.1 Fillies' Mile
Only two of those (Desert Flower and Minding) were top class juveniles and had already shown form smart enough at two to win an average Guineas. In between there were eight Guineas winners that were either just below top class (on official ratings) at two, or else hadn't shown any worthwhile form at two to suggest they were anywhere near Guineas class (Elmalka, Billesdon Brook, Winter).
A bit of a pattern developed from 2018 to 2022: five consecutive winners of the Guineas (three of them trained by Aidan O'Brien) had raced either 7 or 8 times at two, four of those were officially rated 109-111 and were just below top class at two. Mawj (the 2023 winner) had race 7 times prior to the Guineas (5 times at two) and narrowly beat the 118-rated Tahiyra at Newmarket.
This used to be a race that I would get heavily involved in ante-post every year, but in recent years it's become much harder to pinpoint likely winners at backable odds. Shock winners and narrow defeats for strongly fancied market leaders (e.g. Tahiyra) haven't helped.
All contributions are warmly welcomed, provided they are pertinent, prescient and polite!
Back in the 1980s, 1990s and early 2000s this race would regularly go to fillies that had shown top class form in juvenile pattern races, but it has become quite a hard-to-solve puzzle in recent years.
Consider the last 10 winners (official rating prior to the Guineas in brackets):
2025 Desert Flower (117): top-class unbeaten filly at two, including Gr.1 Fillies' Mile
2024 Elmalka (100): Southwell debut winner at two, third on reappearance at three; 28/1 winner in Guineas in five-way photo finish
2023 Mawj (110): just below top class at two (third in Gr.1 Cheveley Park Stakes); won two races at Meydan prior to Guineas
2022 Cachet (109): raced 8 times at two, just below top class, placed in Gr.1 Fillies' Mile; improved on her juvenile form to win Nell Gwyn on reappearance
2021 Mother Earth (111): raced 8 times at two, progressive but just below top class, placed in Gr.1 Breeders' Cup and Gr.1 Fillies' Mile
2020 Love (111): raced 7 times at two, won Gr.1 Moyglare, placed in Gr.1 Fillies' Mile
2019 Hermosa (110): raced 7 times at two, just below top class, placed in Gr.1 Lagardere and Gr.1 Fillies' Mile
2018 Billesdon Brook (99): raced 8 times at two, well below top class (won Gr.3 Prestige Stakes, unplaced in Gr.2 May Hill), shock 66/1 winner of Guineas
2017 Winter (106): maiden winner on third start at two, close 2nd in Gr.3 Guineas trial at three
2016 Minding (120): top class at two, won Gr.1 Moyglare and Gr.1 Fillies' Mile
Only two of those (Desert Flower and Minding) were top class juveniles and had already shown form smart enough at two to win an average Guineas. In between there were eight Guineas winners that were either just below top class (on official ratings) at two, or else hadn't shown any worthwhile form at two to suggest they were anywhere near Guineas class (Elmalka, Billesdon Brook, Winter).
A bit of a pattern developed from 2018 to 2022: five consecutive winners of the Guineas (three of them trained by Aidan O'Brien) had raced either 7 or 8 times at two, four of those were officially rated 109-111 and were just below top class at two. Mawj (the 2023 winner) had race 7 times prior to the Guineas (5 times at two) and narrowly beat the 118-rated Tahiyra at Newmarket.
This used to be a race that I would get heavily involved in ante-post every year, but in recent years it's become much harder to pinpoint likely winners at backable odds. Shock winners and narrow defeats for strongly fancied market leaders (e.g. Tahiyra) haven't helped.
All contributions are warmly welcomed, provided they are pertinent, prescient and polite!
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For me, the Albany and Duchess Of Cambridgeshire were poor renewals this year, with Venetian Sun just a moderate winner of both races. I see the RP have her improving last time but I didn't see any real progress myself. Even if she stays she'll need to improve a bundle. Composing and Beautify, in that order, have put up the best two performances I've seen so far. Obviously a good few pounds short of Guineas winning class at this stage but they look to have more potential for improvement than VS.
I probably should've given a mention to Royal Fixation, who I reckon improved past Venetian Sun when winning the Lowther, but she does seem more of a sprinting type.
There's been no star juvenile filly so far this season. The best of the 6 furlong fillies have been True Love (OR 115) and Venetian Sun (OR 107). True Love looked smart when winning the Gr.2 Queen Mary Stakes and Gr.2 Railway Stakes but finished with mild lameness next time when runner-up in the Gr.1 Phoenix Stakes. She's by No Nay Never out of a 9f winner and deserves another chance to show her true colours. She holds Gr.1 entries later in the season.
Venetian Sun, unbeaten in three starts including the Gr.2 Duchess of Cambridge Stakes (the runner-up won the Gr.2 Lowther next time), is due to line up for the Gr.1 Prix Morny at Deauville this afternoon. She's reportedly quicker than any of the trainer's previous good fillies such as Fallen Angel and Laurens (both of whom won Gr.1 races at age two, three and four). She's inherited her speed from her sire Starman, and the dam was a 6f winner who eventually stayed 10f and is a full sister to a winning hurdler. She's potentially top class, but let's see how she gets on at Deauville.
Composing looked quite useful in the Gr.2 Debutante Stakes yesterday, and the winning time was significantly quicker than the colts' race earlier on the card, but the form lacks strength in depth and the performance was only workmanlike (to my eyes).
Venetian Sun, unbeaten in three starts including the Gr.2 Duchess of Cambridge Stakes (the runner-up won the Gr.2 Lowther next time), is due to line up for the Gr.1 Prix Morny at Deauville this afternoon. She's reportedly quicker than any of the trainer's previous good fillies such as Fallen Angel and Laurens (both of whom won Gr.1 races at age two, three and four). She's inherited her speed from her sire Starman, and the dam was a 6f winner who eventually stayed 10f and is a full sister to a winning hurdler. She's potentially top class, but let's see how she gets on at Deauville.
Composing looked quite useful in the Gr.2 Debutante Stakes yesterday, and the winning time was significantly quicker than the colts' race earlier on the card, but the form lacks strength in depth and the performance was only workmanlike (to my eyes).
Jamesp, yes it was remiss of me not to mention True Love. I actually have her Railway Stakes win as the best 2yo sprint performance this season. Like you say, too soon to write her off when she had an excuse for the poor effort last time. It does seem as though she's seen as strictly a sprinter though. O'Brien even mentioned they weren't sure about her even getting 6f.
Royal Fixation (OR 106 prior to her win in the Lowther) has made her mark too at Gr.2 level but I agree that she does look a sprinting type (both her sire and dam were sprinters). Karl Burke believes that Venetian Sun is better than she showed in the Duchess of Cambridge.
Beautify looked quite smart in the Gr.2 Airlie Stud Stakes, and the strongly fancied runner-up won the Gr.3 Molecomb next time (but otherwise the form lacks depth). She's sure to get much further (the dam won over 12f and her half-sister was placed in the Irish Oaks), she holds entries for the Moyglare and the Fillies' Mile, so she's definitely one to follow.
Beautify looked quite smart in the Gr.2 Airlie Stud Stakes, and the strongly fancied runner-up won the Gr.3 Molecomb next time (but otherwise the form lacks depth). She's sure to get much further (the dam won over 12f and her half-sister was placed in the Irish Oaks), she holds entries for the Moyglare and the Fillies' Mile, so she's definitely one to follow.
She's reportedly quicker than any of the trainer's previous good fillies such as Fallen Angel and Laurens
Even at this stage of the season I had Fallen Angel a much better filly (8lbs) than VS. I'd have VS better than Laurens at the same stage of the year, but that filly made progress later. Possibly VS will similarly improve, but the trainer has been quite bullish about her from an early stage that I wonder if that's as good as she is. We'll find out more today.
Even at this stage of the season I had Fallen Angel a much better filly (8lbs) than VS. I'd have VS better than Laurens at the same stage of the year, but that filly made progress later. Possibly VS will similarly improve, but the trainer has been quite bullish about her from an early stage that I wonder if that's as good as she is. We'll find out more today.
My Highness (trained by Andre Fabre for Godolphin) was well on top when winning the Gr.2 Prix du Calvados this afternoon. She looks ready for a step up to the top mile races later on. The runner-up today had won the Gr.3 Princess Margaret Stakes and didn't quite last home over the extra furlong.
Precise looked professional but still a bit green when landing the Gr.3 Prestige Stakes this afternoon. She's still learning and will do better. She handles fast ground and might be a contender for the Gr.1 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf later on if she continues to progress.
Precise looked professional but still a bit green when landing the Gr.3 Prestige Stakes this afternoon. She's still learning and will do better. She handles fast ground and might be a contender for the Gr.1 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf later on if she continues to progress.
Venetian Sun has just won the Prix Morny! Haven't seen a replay yet...
Yes, VS beat the colts in receipt of 4lbs and I certainly can't knock her for consistency. I'll probably be accused of continuing to underrate her, but a quick comparison of the times suggests to me that she ran to the same mark as before. I actually have My Highness as the better performance by as much as 6lbs. That's the best performance I've seen this season by a filly certain to stay the mile. Whether she can improve another 6lbs or so she'd probably need to take a Guineas remains to be seen.
Venetian Sun got a nice tow into the race, was switched to make her run, took a length or so out of Gstaad who closed towards the finish, and she held on narrowly. This was her best performance so far. This form is probably already good enough to win an average Guineas, but will she continue to progress, and will she get a mile?
This form is probably already good enough to win an average Guineas
I have to strongly disagree with that. Gstaad looked impressive when winning the Coventry but the form, backed up by the time, was nowhere near Gp1 class. Wise Approach was only a further half a length behind today, so for this to be Guineas winning class you'd need to also rate him quite highly. Good luck though if you're willing to back her.
I have to strongly disagree with that. Gstaad looked impressive when winning the Coventry but the form, backed up by the time, was nowhere near Gp1 class. Wise Approach was only a further half a length behind today, so for this to be Guineas winning class you'd need to also rate him quite highly. Good luck though if you're willing to back her.
I will be aiming to oppose VS in her next start as this win looks like it's going to be overrated (as far as I'm concerned). I'll be very surprised if that level will take her to further Gp1 success even back against her own sex.
Fair enough Figgis. I'm just thinking about how the official handicapper will probably rate the form. The winner has beaten a 114-rated (though probably overrated) Gr.2 winner, with a 109-rated progressive colt close up in third. I suspect the filly will be put up to an official rating of at least 110. I'm not tempted to back her for the Guineas on the basis of that performance, not least because there are doubts at this stage about the mile, but she won't need to find a lot more improvement. She's reportedly heading to the Moyglare Stud Stakes next over 7f, which should give us a much better idea whether she's good enough and whether she's likely to get the mile.
Composing versus Venetian Sun at the Curragh could be on the cards next month: an interesting match-up...!
Jamesp, I was hoping to oppose her today, but I'd also been hoping to oppose Gstaad after the Coventry, so had to sit this one out. Actually I got lucky that Gstaad was pulled last time as I probably would've backed True Love to beat him, which she clearly wouldn't have on that latest effort. VS might improve more again, it's just that with rating her last 3 starts the same, and this win is bound to receive plenty of hype I think she's going to be shorter than she should be. I still have Composing and Beautify ahead of VS but at the moment I have My Highness slightly ahead of them all because of what she achieved on the clock today.
Post-race quotes from trainer Karl Burke:
"She's unbelievable, she does everything so relaxed. I've been saying for a little while that she's a special filly and she's proved it there. Early on in the year she stood out in the string and I said to her owners a month ago, she doesn't quite stand out as much and the others have caught her up a little bit, but she's still got so much ability. She'll be better with easier ground. I was very worried when I walked the ground earlier, it's as quick as I've known it here and I've been coming for a number of years now. That dampened my confidence. She'll be better over an extra furlong as well, I'm convinced of that, so we'll go for the Moyglare next and see where we go from there. It will tell us if she's a Classic filly but she's got to prove it. She's got a temperament to die for. I've been lucky enough to have some good fillies like Laurens and Fallen Angel but at this stage in her career she'd be a way ahead of them."
A couple of notes of caution therefore: firstly, Venetian Sun doesn't stand out from her stablemates as much as she did earlier in the year, which suggests that she was a precocious early developer and may not have as much scope for further development as some of the others; secondly, the trainer was concerned about the fast ground today and believes that his filly will be better on easier ground. On the positive side, he's sure his filly will be better over 7f. He also revealed that the filly has been working better than 109-rated Lethal Levi (a useful 6f Listed winner).
"She's unbelievable, she does everything so relaxed. I've been saying for a little while that she's a special filly and she's proved it there. Early on in the year she stood out in the string and I said to her owners a month ago, she doesn't quite stand out as much and the others have caught her up a little bit, but she's still got so much ability. She'll be better with easier ground. I was very worried when I walked the ground earlier, it's as quick as I've known it here and I've been coming for a number of years now. That dampened my confidence. She'll be better over an extra furlong as well, I'm convinced of that, so we'll go for the Moyglare next and see where we go from there. It will tell us if she's a Classic filly but she's got to prove it. She's got a temperament to die for. I've been lucky enough to have some good fillies like Laurens and Fallen Angel but at this stage in her career she'd be a way ahead of them."
A couple of notes of caution therefore: firstly, Venetian Sun doesn't stand out from her stablemates as much as she did earlier in the year, which suggests that she was a precocious early developer and may not have as much scope for further development as some of the others; secondly, the trainer was concerned about the fast ground today and believes that his filly will be better on easier ground. On the positive side, he's sure his filly will be better over 7f. He also revealed that the filly has been working better than 109-rated Lethal Levi (a useful 6f Listed winner).
I've just watched a replay of the Prix du Calvados. I must say, I was quite impressed: My Highness looks a nice-sized, straightforward filly with a lovely action and a smart turn of foot. She used the Gr.3 Princess Margaret Stakes winner as though she were a lead horse on the gallops and went smoothly past her to win cosily.
Godolphin representative Louise Benard revealed the team's regard for the winner afterwards. "This was a test to confirm what we think about her – you can be confident beforehand, but the only judge is the finish line and she showed her class," she said. "She is adaptable and has improved with every race and has never had a hard time. Hopefully we can expect more and if necessary she could have one more run before the Prix Marcel Boussac, but Mr Fabre will decide that."
Godolphin representative Louise Benard revealed the team's regard for the winner afterwards. "This was a test to confirm what we think about her – you can be confident beforehand, but the only judge is the finish line and she showed her class," she said. "She is adaptable and has improved with every race and has never had a hard time. Hopefully we can expect more and if necessary she could have one more run before the Prix Marcel Boussac, but Mr Fabre will decide that."
Jamesp, actually I had Fitzella's Princess Margaret win as good as anything Venetian Sun had done time-wise. Immediately after the Calvados I thought that My Highness had probably just up a typical Gp3 performance to win, and maybe Fitzella hadn't quite stayed. However, comparing the time with the truly run Morny leaves me in no doubt that it was a better performance than I first thought. I'm not getting carried away, as I still think she'd need to improve around 5 or 6 pounds, but the potential looks there.
Welcome back JamesP.
Lovely read fellas.
Venetian Sun's form keeps getting boosted and she put up a fine effort today to beat the boys.
Like both of you, I was impressed with My Highness today.
Surely Arc weekend and the Marcel Boussac will be next for her.
Lovely read fellas.
Venetian Sun's form keeps getting boosted and she put up a fine effort today to beat the boys.
Like both of you, I was impressed with My Highness today.
Surely Arc weekend and the Marcel Boussac will be next for her.
Lightning quick ground at Deauville yesterday, My Highness broke the track record - all aged - over the 7f, and Venetian Sun was the 2nd quickest time on record for the Prix Morny.
Too soon for serious Guineas fancies for me, but I haven't given up on Moon Target, I do think Prescott will want to target the Guineas as he still holds it in such high regard.
Lots of others like Touleen, Xanthos who is entered in the Solario, and Dance to the Music. I'm disregarding all O'Brien's as it's impossible to 2nd guess and I'm not going to bother. Not to mention he leaves it until the last minute for decs.
Too soon for serious Guineas fancies for me, but I haven't given up on Moon Target, I do think Prescott will want to target the Guineas as he still holds it in such high regard.
Lots of others like Touleen, Xanthos who is entered in the Solario, and Dance to the Music. I'm disregarding all O'Brien's as it's impossible to 2nd guess and I'm not going to bother. Not to mention he leaves it until the last minute for decs.
By our own standards for going I have the ground as the fast side of good and nothing like as fast as when Venetian Sun won at Royal Ascot. I'd say the fast times were because it's very rare for Deauville to produce anything faster than good ground for these meetings. Regardless of the state of the ground, when compared with each other on the clock, the Calvados produced a better performance than the Morny.
guys, a brilliant read as usual, james in depth look at past winners is fascinating, one thing though which you guys already know is, you take a chance on your views at the moment or wait till something happens in the Moyglare and get half the price or maybe even less, so if you wait you will have to double your stake for the same return, myself I can only go with what I saw and the trainers reaction with Venetian Sun,it has run well on fast ground and the trainer said the horse will have no problems with give and will be stepping up to 7furs, my only concern is her breeding doesn't shout 8furs. but i'm willing to take a chance just now. look forward to more thoughts on this thread. cheers.
There are plenty red flags waving from both Figgis and jamesp. So read these posts again and again. Jamesp and Figgis are solid posters on here and are very often spot on. Antepost betting is another red flag at any point. We should keep our bets until Raceday when at least you will be on a runner. Better to have 7/4 a runner then 10s on a nonner imo. Yes Karl Burke was bullish but so much can go wrong. AP is always a threat and we need to heed his comments. Sometimes they can mean an awful lot. More times ...well ? Minnie Hauk a perfect example again of AP's ability. Costing MV Magnier €1.85 million she is from the family of Kingman going back to Oasis Dream. Composing doesn't have that sort of pedigree but that may not stop her from top honours. She cost €300K is out of Epona Plays whose by Australia. A winner of a Group2 up the Curragh over a mile for W McCreery. The Moyglare will further inform us. Fallen Angel has done me a favour in this race. Karl Burke knows what's required. It might be a very nice race to see. Its not far away so lets hope for the nice weather to stick around.
Royal Fixation, the Lowther Wnr,she takes Venetian Sun on again,especially
over further than 6Fs,she'll overturn that Nmkt form.Royal Fixation looked
good @ York.
over further than 6Fs,she'll overturn that Nmkt form.Royal Fixation looked
good @ York.
Joseph O'Brien is a trainer I like a lot, ambitious and goes everywhere, I always hope he beats his father in competition. I actually think he's potentially a better trainer overall, without quite the ammunition of his Dad.
This weekend some informative racing with maidens and a gr. 3 in Ireland for 2yo fillies. Joseph has Queen of Hawaii entered, who was unlucky first time behind Composing, couldn't get a run, then won at Leopardstown readily. By Kingman out of a daughter of Jacqueline Quest, I hope she turns up. Not quoted currently that I can find for the 1000 Guineas, but I'm following this one with interest.
She has entries in the Goffs Million and the Fillies Mile later.
I like a long shot.
This weekend some informative racing with maidens and a gr. 3 in Ireland for 2yo fillies. Joseph has Queen of Hawaii entered, who was unlucky first time behind Composing, couldn't get a run, then won at Leopardstown readily. By Kingman out of a daughter of Jacqueline Quest, I hope she turns up. Not quoted currently that I can find for the 1000 Guineas, but I'm following this one with interest.
She has entries in the Goffs Million and the Fillies Mile later.
I like a long shot.
Nice spot there, Smoky Hill: Queen of Hawaii did it well today at the Curragh and is one to follow over a mile and further. It was quite a stamina test for juvenile fillies at this time of year, and she came through strongly in the latter stages to win going away. The logical next step would be a stiffer test in one of the end of season Group 1 events: either the Fillies' Mile or the Prix Marcel Boussac (she's entered in both). My initial impression is that she's likely to do better over longer trips (10f+) next season: she's half-sister to a 9f winner who stayed 12f, and the dam was a 10f winner (by Galileo). Smart prospect.
Yes James, she did that better than I expected.. thanks.. certainly one to follow whichever way she goes from now on. Showed a good turn of foot and I think she'll be suited by Newmarket. Hope to see her in the Fillies Mile.
Precise won well today.Don't see why the horses behind should over turn that form.
Sees the 7F out well.Looks like she'll stay 1M to me anyway.
Looking forward to Royal Fixation's next outing,myself.
Sees the 7F out well.Looks like she'll stay 1M to me anyway.
Looking forward to Royal Fixation's next outing,myself.
The Moyglare was a very unsatisfactory race and has simply muddied the waters as far as the Guineas is concerned. Composing clearly ran well below her best, with the 100/1 outsider maiden Skydance finishing just a length behind her, and Venetian Sun got no sort of run until it was far too late. The winner and runner-up are smart and progessive types, who've improved with every race, but it's impossible to say which of these fillies will turn out to be the best long-term prospect. Aidan O'Brien made excuses for the favourite afterwards, implying that she wasn't done any favours by having to make the running into a strong headwind. Maybe that was a factor, but it was a very slow winning time and I doubt if she over-exerted herself in front. The Ballydoyle contingent ensured that Venetian Sun was boxed in all the way up the straight and the race was over by the time she was able to switch and make her run. It wasn't a great ride by Clifford Lee, he should have had her in a handier position ready to switch outside. She ran on past Composing late on but couldn't make up ground on the front two. She seemed to stay the 7f trip and handled the ground, but she wasn't able to show her best.
Prestige, the winner of the Moyglare, could be Breeder's Cup bound next. The Moyglare is a "win and you're in" for the Breeders' Cup, and she'd love the fast ground out there.
I've not forgotten what happened to Lake Victoria last season after her saunter in America. She was rushed for the Guineas at Newmarket (finished 6th), won a weak Irish Guineas and, retired before the end of the season.
Venetian Sun was tactically "inconvenienced" by the battalion of AOB, no doubt riding to instruction.
I've not forgotten what happened to Lake Victoria last season after her saunter in America. She was rushed for the Guineas at Newmarket (finished 6th), won a weak Irish Guineas and, retired before the end of the season.
Venetian Sun was tactically "inconvenienced" by the battalion of AOB, no doubt riding to instruction.
These gr. 1 2 year olds are having very hard races.
Along with Queen of Hawaii, Touleen, mentioned earlier, is one I like very much at the moment.. she seems to have several gears available.
Along with Queen of Hawaii, Touleen, mentioned earlier, is one I like very much at the moment.. she seems to have several gears available.
There's much made of O'Briens rnrs in a race.Venetian Sun wasn't good enough.
It's as though she was swinging off the steel with no where to go that weren't the case.
It's as though she was swinging off the steel with no where to go that weren't the case.
Last season AOB had Fairy Godmother, Lady Victoria and Bedtime Story. Each was fav for a time. Only one showed up (rushed). A very costly episode for backers. And, I was one!
The last few seasons A.O'Brien has not been too bothered about the Newmarket Guineas.
Maybe he thinks it is too much, too early.
I wouldn't say they are rushed.
Maybe he thinks it is too much, too early.
I wouldn't say they are rushed.
Well, it's all a matter of opinions. Venetian Sun might not have won in any case but it certainly didn't help that she was hemmed in by the winner until inside the final furlong. The winner and second got first run, and I reckon Venetian Sun would have gone very close with a clear passage. She got going but far too late, never got daylight.
Was quite taken with Diamond Necklace on Irish Champiobs day who won stylishly despite not having a perfect trip.
Not the greatest race in the world but she oozed class.
Was especially interested in Soumillons post race comments where he was very effusive with his praise.
I know Coolmore jockeys are coached to say every horse is potentially the second coming but I just felt he was saying it like it is and he has ridden some pretty tasty fillies.
Surprised 16/1 still available given the Moyglare was a bit of mess so have opened my wallet accordingly.
Not the greatest race in the world but she oozed class.
Was especially interested in Soumillons post race comments where he was very effusive with his praise.
I know Coolmore jockeys are coached to say every horse is potentially the second coming but I just felt he was saying it like it is and he has ridden some pretty tasty fillies.
Surprised 16/1 still available given the Moyglare was a bit of mess so have opened my wallet accordingly.
I agree that Diamond Necklace was impressive at Leopardstown (even allowing for the fact that it was a Listed race and the runner-up was officially rated only 94). The only reservations I have about her as a Guineas prospect are that her pedigree suggests she should be best at 10f+ next year and that Aidan O'Brien has never previously aimed any of his best fillies at this Listed race in the past. The best of his recent runners in this race was Content, who went on to win last year's Yorkshire Oaks. Mind you, Diamond Necklace (unlike the trainer's other previous runners in this race) won easily and is lightly raced, so she could be anything. She holds entries in the Rockfel, Fillies' Mile and Prix Marcel Boussac.
Interesting that the Crisfords are prepared to let Zanthos line up against her Leicester conqueror Touleen again in the Gr.2 Rockfel Stakes this afternoon. She pulled too hard when held up off a moderate pace at Leicester, and they clearly feel she's a lot better than she showed there. They will be hoping for a true pace today. She's highly regarded.
Good test for Royal Fixation today.Hope she's up to it.
That was more like the performance I expected from True Love in the Phoenix Stakes, but she was found to be slightly lame last time. More than half a second faster than the pathetically weak Middle Park, I have her up 4lbs making that the best performance by a 2yo filly this year and only a pound or two short of taking an average Guineas. That said, O'Brien had previously stated they weren't even sure about her getting 6f and his comments after today's win did nothing to encourage optimism about her staying further, so not one I'll be backing.
Current odds for the 1000 Guineas: 10/1 Precise, 12/1 Venetian Sun, 14/1 Diamond Necklace, 14/1 True Love, 25/1 bar.
True Love put up the best performance by a juvenile filly so far this season in the Gr.1 Cheveley Park Stakes, but I simply don't see her as a Guineas filly: she was an early maturing type and is very speedy (having previously won the Queen Mary at Royal Ascot) and her trainer has expressed stamina concerns about her.
Stablemate Precise won a messy renewal of the Gr.1 Moyglare Stud Stakes, following up an earlier win in the Gr.3 Prestige Stakes, a race her trainer never normally targets with his best fillies. She's clearly progressing well, but the form is hard to evaluate: Venetian Sun was boxed in until the race was nearly over, the runner-up ran poorly next time in the Cheveley Park, and Composing was beaten at odds-on next time in the Goffs Million. Venetian Sun is very highly regarded, has already won at the highest level and is certainly worth another chance to prove her stamina at 7f+
With soft ground expected at Longchamp this weekend, Andre Fabre has decided to pull his smart filly My Highness out of the Gr.1 Prix Marcel Boussac (where she would have been a warm favourite) and is instead thinking of bringing her over to Newmarket for the Gr.1 Fillies' Mile. "She would need to be supplemented, but I like the idea of Newmarket because it’s a good race and the ground would likely be better than at Longchamp... The main thinking is that she is proven on a straight course, she will enjoy good ground and the ground will be better in Newmarket than anywhere else – and she is exciting." He will leave it as late as possible before making a decision.
That's a good enough hint for me, so I've taken a bit of 33/1 for the Guineas. Whenever Fabre has a two year old he thinks might be suitable for the Newmarket classics he normally likes to bring them over for an autumn outing over the Rowley Mile. Following her impressive win in the Gr.2 Prix du Calvados, where she beat the 105-rated Fitzella (whose trainer believes she stayed the trip well), she must have a leading chance if lining up for the Fillies' Mile: in that sense, Diamond Necklace looks a bit of a false favourite at around 2/1... it's true that she's lightly raced, is open to plenty of improvement, and was impressive in a Listed race recently, but she still has quite a bit to find (8lbs on Racing Post Ratings) with the Godolphin filly.
True Love put up the best performance by a juvenile filly so far this season in the Gr.1 Cheveley Park Stakes, but I simply don't see her as a Guineas filly: she was an early maturing type and is very speedy (having previously won the Queen Mary at Royal Ascot) and her trainer has expressed stamina concerns about her.
Stablemate Precise won a messy renewal of the Gr.1 Moyglare Stud Stakes, following up an earlier win in the Gr.3 Prestige Stakes, a race her trainer never normally targets with his best fillies. She's clearly progressing well, but the form is hard to evaluate: Venetian Sun was boxed in until the race was nearly over, the runner-up ran poorly next time in the Cheveley Park, and Composing was beaten at odds-on next time in the Goffs Million. Venetian Sun is very highly regarded, has already won at the highest level and is certainly worth another chance to prove her stamina at 7f+
With soft ground expected at Longchamp this weekend, Andre Fabre has decided to pull his smart filly My Highness out of the Gr.1 Prix Marcel Boussac (where she would have been a warm favourite) and is instead thinking of bringing her over to Newmarket for the Gr.1 Fillies' Mile. "She would need to be supplemented, but I like the idea of Newmarket because it’s a good race and the ground would likely be better than at Longchamp... The main thinking is that she is proven on a straight course, she will enjoy good ground and the ground will be better in Newmarket than anywhere else – and she is exciting." He will leave it as late as possible before making a decision.
That's a good enough hint for me, so I've taken a bit of 33/1 for the Guineas. Whenever Fabre has a two year old he thinks might be suitable for the Newmarket classics he normally likes to bring them over for an autumn outing over the Rowley Mile. Following her impressive win in the Gr.2 Prix du Calvados, where she beat the 105-rated Fitzella (whose trainer believes she stayed the trip well), she must have a leading chance if lining up for the Fillies' Mile: in that sense, Diamond Necklace looks a bit of a false favourite at around 2/1... it's true that she's lightly raced, is open to plenty of improvement, and was impressive in a Listed race recently, but she still has quite a bit to find (8lbs on Racing Post Ratings) with the Godolphin filly.
It seems they have had a change of plans and My Highness is now finished for the year, so won't be coming over for the Fillies Mile, as reported by Paris Turf. Fabre wants to leave her until next year. I gather she has turned a bit 'wintry'..
Ah, I hadn't seen the Paris Turf article which was published online yesterday evening. I was going on what was reported at the weekend, when it seemed very possible that the filly would be supplemented for the Fillies' Mile. Oh well, let's see what the plans are next spring...!
Diamond Necklace has been declared to run in the Gr.1 Prix Marcel Boussac at Longchamp on Sunday, where her opponents will include the Gr.2 winners Aylin and Green Spirit.
This has shaken up the Fillies' Mile market: it's now 7/2 Legacy Link, 4/1 Precise and 10/1 bar.
This has shaken up the Fillies' Mile market: it's now 7/2 Legacy Link, 4/1 Precise and 10/1 bar.
Interesting to see if Diamond Necklace can improve again, as on my figure for her last time she has much progress to make to be a Guineas filly.
She came from behind to win quite comfortably, but doesn't do anything in a hurry. Mind you, it was soft ground and not ideal conditions for acceleration. She strikes me as a staying type and will doubtlessly be clear favourite now for the Oaks.
It's still hard to get a confident handle on DN. It was a weak renewal, plus the bare time and form are moderate. Nevertheless, they went slow early, finished fast, therefore not easy to win impressively. No big surprise if she's much better than the form she's shown so far, but I won't be backing her for either classic.
I backed her for the Oaks both before and after todays race and I think she is potentially very good. The track is suiting front runners today, every winner has either made the running or been up with the pace.
She has given the French horse a couple of lengths lead in a slowly run race which would not have suited and picked her up very comfortably, and for a horse bred for 12 furlongs next year I thought it was a very god performance.. Soumillon has said she is the best filly he has sat on since Zarkava.
She has given the French horse a couple of lengths lead in a slowly run race which would not have suited and picked her up very comfortably, and for a horse bred for 12 furlongs next year I thought it was a very god performance.. Soumillon has said she is the best filly he has sat on since Zarkava.
Precise is only around 10/1 for the Guineas but I reckon she needs to improve around 6 or 7lbs to be a probable winner, so I'm hoping something else can improve past her today, or maybe even she can progress a chunk again herself.
Precise another good performance.Showed the Molyglare was no fluke.
Precise was quite impressive visually and I was thinking that she probably had made decent improvement again, but after comparing the times I have her up only 1lb from the Moyglare. This turned out to be yet another disappointingly weak field for a Gp1. The Irish race was run slow early and fast late but this race was the opposite. So the way today's race was run there's no reason to believe she's any better than the bare form, and, even though she won decisively, with the RP comments saying "easily", to my eye after the post she looked like a filly that had just had a fairly tough race.
The market has overreacted in my view. I believe she still needs to find about 5 or 6lbs to win an average Guineas. Of course she might do just that by next spring, but so could a few others, so of no interest to me ante post.
The market has overreacted in my view. I believe she still needs to find about 5 or 6lbs to win an average Guineas. Of course she might do just that by next spring, but so could a few others, so of no interest to me ante post.
Aidan O'Brien proclaimed Precise to be "different gear to Minding" after she had thumped Venetian Lace and several other smart rivals in the bet365 Group 1 Fillies' Mile, leading 1,000 Guineas sponsor Betfred to cut her to 7-2 favourite (from 10) to emulate her Ballydoyle predecessor in next year's Classic.
Christophe Soumillon sat motionless passing the Bushes on the daughter of Starspangledbanner before she stormed clear out of the Dip to give Aidan O'Brien a record seventh win in the mile contest, which was won by subsequent Guineas winner Desert Flower a year ago.
The well-backed 5-4 favourite (from 7-4) raced last of the stands' side group led by her stablemate Sugar Island and runner-up Venetian Lace before making smooth progress two furlongs out. The result was never in doubt from thereon and Soumillon was able to ease down as she passed the post three and a quarter lengths clear.
Precise was treading a well-worn path from the Group 1 Moyglare Stud Stakes at the Curragh to the Fillies' Mile and the omens are good as the last one to complete that double was Minding in 2015. She went on to 1,000 Guineas glory the next year before completing a Classic double in the Oaks and retiring with a magnificent seven Group 1 wins to her name.
O'Brien said: "Precise looks serious and a special filly. Everything she has done from day one has been so easy. We weren't sure how good she was but she looks a serious filly, make no mistake. That was even more impressive than Minding. Don't get me wrong – Minding was a top filly but this filly is different gear."
Precise was completing a four-timer and O'Brien added: "We put those two fillies in there to make it a good strong gallop and and she came through it great and gets better with every run. Christophe was sitting motionless most of the way and she does it so easy.
Christophe Soumillon sat motionless passing the Bushes on the daughter of Starspangledbanner before she stormed clear out of the Dip to give Aidan O'Brien a record seventh win in the mile contest, which was won by subsequent Guineas winner Desert Flower a year ago.
The well-backed 5-4 favourite (from 7-4) raced last of the stands' side group led by her stablemate Sugar Island and runner-up Venetian Lace before making smooth progress two furlongs out. The result was never in doubt from thereon and Soumillon was able to ease down as she passed the post three and a quarter lengths clear.
Precise was treading a well-worn path from the Group 1 Moyglare Stud Stakes at the Curragh to the Fillies' Mile and the omens are good as the last one to complete that double was Minding in 2015. She went on to 1,000 Guineas glory the next year before completing a Classic double in the Oaks and retiring with a magnificent seven Group 1 wins to her name.
O'Brien said: "Precise looks serious and a special filly. Everything she has done from day one has been so easy. We weren't sure how good she was but she looks a serious filly, make no mistake. That was even more impressive than Minding. Don't get me wrong – Minding was a top filly but this filly is different gear."
Precise was completing a four-timer and O'Brien added: "We put those two fillies in there to make it a good strong gallop and and she came through it great and gets better with every run. Christophe was sitting motionless most of the way and she does it so easy.
That was even more impressive than Minding
Impossible to agree with that, whatever criteria you use.
Impossible to agree with that, whatever criteria you use.
AOB has tended to "hype" his winners with timely regularity.
Bedtime Story, Fairy Godmother and Lake Victoria were scintillating winners last season. Only Lake Victoria made the Classic (rushed), and retired soon after; Fairy Godmother did not; Bedtime Story had not won a race in 2025.
Minding was a much better filly than the recent lot of fillies from Coolmore. Ballydoyle was decent too, her nemesis was Minding.
Bedtime Story, Fairy Godmother and Lake Victoria were scintillating winners last season. Only Lake Victoria made the Classic (rushed), and retired soon after; Fairy Godmother did not; Bedtime Story had not won a race in 2025.
Minding was a much better filly than the recent lot of fillies from Coolmore. Ballydoyle was decent too, her nemesis was Minding.
Richard Hoiles produced some stats to warn potential backers of Precise for the 1000G that her win in the Fillies Mile in the last final furlong was 2l slower than any of the previous winners at Newmarket yesterday, and that included Beauvatier.
True Love runs in the 5f Juvenile Turf Sprint tomorrow night at Del Mar - a clear sign that the Coolmore outfit see the Cheveley Park Stakes winner as an out-and-out sprinter, not a Guineas filly.
Precise is a warm favourite (deservedly so) in the Juvenile Fillies Turf over a mile. She's not well drawn but should be more than good enough if things go her way round the tight turns.
Precise is a warm favourite (deservedly so) in the Juvenile Fillies Turf over a mile. She's not well drawn but should be more than good enough if things go her way round the tight turns.
I've bet 3 already for the guineas including Precise, think i'll bet it again tomorrow, going to add Queen of Hawaii as a saver, as my final selection, the 1000 guineas is the only ante-post bet I put on long term, hopefully one of them gives me money in the bank. cheers.
Comparing Precise with O'Brien's last two winners of the American race, I have her not as good as Lake Victoria but better than Meditate. I don't know the exact quality of this year's home team, but as both of those O'Brien fillies won quite easily it's fair to say, as you'd expect, the US fillies are not usually as good. I still don't think this is a straightforward opportunity for Precise, regardless of concerns about the draw. I have Precise up only 1lb from the slow run early Moyglare to the fast paced Fillies' Mile, so I don't see obvious improvement being made. Added to that, to me it looked like she had a pretty hard race at Newmarket.
Maybe at home she came out of the race extremely well and Coolmore are confident of another run to form. I wouldn't know about that, but I know in those circumstances they get it right more than wrong. However, I tend to think that Coolmore are more likely to twist than stick with their 2yo fillies than they would be with a potentially top class colt. So it's possible that they're just having another shot at what is probably a relatively weak event.
Maybe at home she came out of the race extremely well and Coolmore are confident of another run to form. I wouldn't know about that, but I know in those circumstances they get it right more than wrong. However, I tend to think that Coolmore are more likely to twist than stick with their 2yo fillies than they would be with a potentially top class colt. So it's possible that they're just having another shot at what is probably a relatively weak event.
Precise is out of tonight's race with an infection. True Love was out of the frame in the Juvenile Sprint.
It sounds like Precise is being aimed at the Newmarket Guineas, with Diamond Necklace likely to go for the French equivalent. Meanwhile, My Highness features among 21 entries for the Prix Imprudence on 7th April, which is the obvious prep race for the Guineas if connections decide to go down that route.
Waiting to watch a replay of this afternoon's Prix Imprudence, but My Highness could manage only 2nd behind a 50/1 shock winner, whose previous form suggested she was nowhere near the class required (finished 8th in a Listed race a month ago). Unless she was very unlucky in running, it doesn't sound like My Highness will be travelling over for the Guineas.
My Highness travelled well and had a clear passage but had no answer to the winner's kick. It was a fast winning time. This was a long way below her Gr.2 Prix du Calvados winning form from last season. Very puzzling, though Fabre warned that she was still a bit wintry and needs the warm weather which has just arrived today.
And NO runner for him in the Grotte, which I think you’ll find very rare.
“The Prix Imprudence (Gr. III) was a good preparation, because the timing was really perfect. She also ran very well that day. However, we waited to see the opposition before making the final decision. Mr. Fabre was satisfied with her work on Monday morning and she will therefore go to Newmarket this weekend if, of course, the trip goes well,”
Oisin been booked for Fabre’s filly! That has to please more than Pouchain!
Yes, the warm weather has reportedly helped bring My Highness forward and the booking of Oisin Murphy is a bonus! I'm happy with my 33/1 ante-post bet on the Fabre filly and see that she's shortened from 20/1 to 10/1 this week.
I think Venetian Sun has a reasonable chance of reversing Moyglare form with the favourite Precise: she was short of room at the Curragh and looked a shade unlucky, and her Prix Morny winning form (beating Gr.1 winners Gstaad and Wise Approach) was out of the top drawer.
I think Venetian Sun has a reasonable chance of reversing Moyglare form with the favourite Precise: she was short of room at the Curragh and looked a shade unlucky, and her Prix Morny winning form (beating Gr.1 winners Gstaad and Wise Approach) was out of the top drawer.
Good luck, James.
Haven't seen any post from Figgis this season. Hope he is OK.
Haven't seen any post from Figgis this season. Hope he is OK.
Well jamesp you seem to be alive to the French challenge every year. I'm guessing Ma Biche, Natagora and others have enriched you. I am sticking with Karl Burke and Venetian Sun. Seems to be shortening all the time, but that's maybe because the others are weak in the markets. It would be nice to see his colt run well in the 2000GNS tomorrow.
My guess. No form analysis
1. Darn Hot Gallop 66/1
2. Touleen 16/1
3. Abashiri 16/1
4. Azleet 25/1
5. Domina Ignis 66/1
6. Venetian Sun 5/1
7. Mubasimah 66/1
8. Inis Mor 18/1
9. Silenciosa 100/1
10. Spicy Marg 50/1
11. True Test 150/1
12. Precise 5/2
13. Rose Ghaiyyath 33/1
14. My Highness 9/1
15. The Prettiest Star 11/1
16. Venetian Lace 50/1
17. True Love 13/2
18. Evolutionist 16/1
19. Timeforshowcasing 66/1
1. Darn Hot Gallop 66/1
2. Touleen 16/1
3. Abashiri 16/1
4. Azleet 25/1
5. Domina Ignis 66/1
6. Venetian Sun 5/1
7. Mubasimah 66/1
8. Inis Mor 18/1
9. Silenciosa 100/1
10. Spicy Marg 50/1
11. True Test 150/1
12. Precise 5/2
13. Rose Ghaiyyath 33/1
14. My Highness 9/1
15. The Prettiest Star 11/1
16. Venetian Lace 50/1
17. True Love 13/2
18. Evolutionist 16/1
19. Timeforshowcasing 66/1
Precise looks a very strong favourite to me. Similar profile to Minding who bolted up in the Guineas.
Just whether she is ready - the market will likely tell the story.
I’ll also have an each way bet (4 places) on Inis Mor (20/1) and Domina Ignis (66/1)
Just whether she is ready - the market will likely tell the story.
I’ll also have an each way bet (4 places) on Inis Mor (20/1) and Domina Ignis (66/1)
Unless the ground goes softer than good it’s VENETIAN SUN for me
All the best
All the best
Interesting to note that the first three home had all performed well at Gr.1 level last season, which goes some way towards restoring confidence in the top juvenile races as the best long-term guide to the Guineas. It was a similar story in the previous day's 2000 Guineas, where the finish was dominated by Gr.2 and Gr.1 winners. True Love's task was certainly made easier by the disappointing performances of her main market rivals: the placed fillies had finished placed behind Precise in last autumn's Gr.1 Fillies' Mile and the more than 6-lengths turnaround in form indicates that Precise was a long way below her best; Venetian Sun appeared not to stay the mile and will presumably revert to sprinting in future; My Highness got worked up in the prelims and drifted alarmingly in the betting before failing to fire in the race itself. But take nothing away from the winner, she stayed the mile well and put up a classy performance. She was a big well-developed early-maturing juvenile last year, and it was her sheer class and size that enabled her to dominate over sprint trips. Her trainer had expressed major doubts about her getting a mile at three, but even the best get it wrong from time to time, and I take comfort from the fact that I wasn't the only one who wrote off her chances of staying! 
Her win over 7f at Leopardstown last month gave connections every reason to let her take her chance in the Guineas and she took it well.
Her win over 7f at Leopardstown last month gave connections every reason to let her take her chance in the Guineas and she took it well.
No bet in the race in the end for me. As stated earlier on here, True Love had the best form of all the contenders but I was clearly wrong to question her stamina. I see Timeform have her as an above average winner, with only 3 better winning performances in the last 10 years. I have it as a slightly below average winning performance, with only 3 worse winning efforts (Mother Earth, Elmalka, Desert Flower), and equal to Billesdon Brook.
Even more concerning for her future prospects, I have her not improving a jot from 2 to 3, with this win equal with her Cheveley Park victory. Even though it's difficult to be enthusiastic about any of the beaten runners, I'll be surprised if this level of form carries True Love far into the season at the top of the pack.
Even more concerning for her future prospects, I have her not improving a jot from 2 to 3, with this win equal with her Cheveley Park victory. Even though it's difficult to be enthusiastic about any of the beaten runners, I'll be surprised if this level of form carries True Love far into the season at the top of the pack.
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