Horse Antepost
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A little delayed, here's the latest instalment of the 1000 Guineas antepost discussion thread...!
Back in the 1980s, 1990s and early 2000s this race would regularly go to fillies that had shown top class form in juvenile pattern races, but it has become quite a hard-to-solve puzzle in recent years.
Consider the last 10 winners (official rating prior to the Guineas in brackets):
2025 Desert Flower (117): top-class unbeaten filly at two, including Gr.1 Fillies' Mile
2024 Elmalka (100): Southwell debut winner at two, third on reappearance at three; 28/1 winner in Guineas in five-way photo finish
2023 Mawj (110): just below top class at two (third in Gr.1 Cheveley Park Stakes); won two races at Meydan prior to Guineas
2022 Cachet (109): raced 8 times at two, just below top class, placed in Gr.1 Fillies' Mile; improved on her juvenile form to win Nell Gwyn on reappearance
2021 Mother Earth (111): raced 8 times at two, progressive but just below top class, placed in Gr.1 Breeders' Cup and Gr.1 Fillies' Mile
2020 Love (111): raced 7 times at two, won Gr.1 Moyglare, placed in Gr.1 Fillies' Mile
2019 Hermosa (110): raced 7 times at two, just below top class, placed in Gr.1 Lagardere and Gr.1 Fillies' Mile
2018 Billesdon Brook (99): raced 8 times at two, well below top class (won Gr.3 Prestige Stakes, unplaced in Gr.2 May Hill), shock 66/1 winner of Guineas
2017 Winter (106): maiden winner on third start at two, close 2nd in Gr.3 Guineas trial at three
2016 Minding (120): top class at two, won Gr.1 Moyglare and Gr.1 Fillies' Mile
Only two of those (Desert Flower and Minding) were top class juveniles and had already shown form smart enough at two to win an average Guineas. In between there were eight Guineas winners that were either just below top class (on official ratings) at two, or else hadn't shown any worthwhile form at two to suggest they were anywhere near Guineas class (Elmalka, Billesdon Brook, Winter).
A bit of a pattern developed from 2018 to 2022: five consecutive winners of the Guineas (three of them trained by Aidan O'Brien) had raced either 7 or 8 times at two, four of those were officially rated 109-111 and were just below top class at two. Mawj (the 2023 winner) had race 7 times prior to the Guineas (5 times at two) and narrowly beat the 118-rated Tahiyra at Newmarket.
This used to be a race that I would get heavily involved in ante-post every year, but in recent years it's become much harder to pinpoint likely winners at backable odds. Shock winners and narrow defeats for strongly fancied market leaders (e.g. Tahiyra) haven't helped.
All contributions are warmly welcomed, provided they are pertinent, prescient and polite!
Back in the 1980s, 1990s and early 2000s this race would regularly go to fillies that had shown top class form in juvenile pattern races, but it has become quite a hard-to-solve puzzle in recent years.
Consider the last 10 winners (official rating prior to the Guineas in brackets):
2025 Desert Flower (117): top-class unbeaten filly at two, including Gr.1 Fillies' Mile
2024 Elmalka (100): Southwell debut winner at two, third on reappearance at three; 28/1 winner in Guineas in five-way photo finish
2023 Mawj (110): just below top class at two (third in Gr.1 Cheveley Park Stakes); won two races at Meydan prior to Guineas
2022 Cachet (109): raced 8 times at two, just below top class, placed in Gr.1 Fillies' Mile; improved on her juvenile form to win Nell Gwyn on reappearance
2021 Mother Earth (111): raced 8 times at two, progressive but just below top class, placed in Gr.1 Breeders' Cup and Gr.1 Fillies' Mile
2020 Love (111): raced 7 times at two, won Gr.1 Moyglare, placed in Gr.1 Fillies' Mile
2019 Hermosa (110): raced 7 times at two, just below top class, placed in Gr.1 Lagardere and Gr.1 Fillies' Mile
2018 Billesdon Brook (99): raced 8 times at two, well below top class (won Gr.3 Prestige Stakes, unplaced in Gr.2 May Hill), shock 66/1 winner of Guineas
2017 Winter (106): maiden winner on third start at two, close 2nd in Gr.3 Guineas trial at three
2016 Minding (120): top class at two, won Gr.1 Moyglare and Gr.1 Fillies' Mile
Only two of those (Desert Flower and Minding) were top class juveniles and had already shown form smart enough at two to win an average Guineas. In between there were eight Guineas winners that were either just below top class (on official ratings) at two, or else hadn't shown any worthwhile form at two to suggest they were anywhere near Guineas class (Elmalka, Billesdon Brook, Winter).
A bit of a pattern developed from 2018 to 2022: five consecutive winners of the Guineas (three of them trained by Aidan O'Brien) had raced either 7 or 8 times at two, four of those were officially rated 109-111 and were just below top class at two. Mawj (the 2023 winner) had race 7 times prior to the Guineas (5 times at two) and narrowly beat the 118-rated Tahiyra at Newmarket.
This used to be a race that I would get heavily involved in ante-post every year, but in recent years it's become much harder to pinpoint likely winners at backable odds. Shock winners and narrow defeats for strongly fancied market leaders (e.g. Tahiyra) haven't helped.
All contributions are warmly welcomed, provided they are pertinent, prescient and polite!
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For me, the Albany and Duchess Of Cambridgeshire were poor renewals this year, with Venetian Sun just a moderate winner of both races. I see the RP have her improving last time but I didn't see any real progress myself. Even if she stays she'll need to improve a bundle. Composing and Beautify, in that order, have put up the best two performances I've seen so far. Obviously a good few pounds short of Guineas winning class at this stage but they look to have more potential for improvement than VS.
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I probably should've given a mention to Royal Fixation, who I reckon improved past Venetian Sun when winning the Lowther, but she does seem more of a sprinting type.
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There's been no star juvenile filly so far this season. The best of the 6 furlong fillies have been True Love (OR 115) and Venetian Sun (OR 107). True Love looked smart when winning the Gr.2 Queen Mary Stakes and Gr.2 Railway Stakes but finished with mild lameness next time when runner-up in the Gr.1 Phoenix Stakes. She's by No Nay Never out of a 9f winner and deserves another chance to show her true colours. She holds Gr.1 entries later in the season.
Venetian Sun, unbeaten in three starts including the Gr.2 Duchess of Cambridge Stakes (the runner-up won the Gr.2 Lowther next time), is due to line up for the Gr.1 Prix Morny at Deauville this afternoon. She's reportedly quicker than any of the trainer's previous good fillies such as Fallen Angel and Laurens (both of whom won Gr.1 races at age two, three and four). She's inherited her speed from her sire Starman, and the dam was a 6f winner who eventually stayed 10f and is a full sister to a winning hurdler. She's potentially top class, but let's see how she gets on at Deauville. Composing looked quite useful in the Gr.2 Debutante Stakes yesterday, and the winning time was significantly quicker than the colts' race earlier on the card, but the form lacks strength in depth and the performance was only workmanlike (to my eyes). |
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Jamesp, yes it was remiss of me not to mention True Love. I actually have her Railway Stakes win as the best 2yo sprint performance this season. Like you say, too soon to write her off when she had an excuse for the poor effort last time. It does seem as though she's seen as strictly a sprinter though. O'Brien even mentioned they weren't sure about her even getting 6f.
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Royal Fixation (OR 106 prior to her win in the Lowther) has made her mark too at Gr.2 level but I agree that she does look a sprinting type (both her sire and dam were sprinters). Karl Burke believes that Venetian Sun is better than she showed in the Duchess of Cambridge.
Beautify looked quite smart in the Gr.2 Airlie Stud Stakes, and the strongly fancied runner-up won the Gr.3 Molecomb next time (but otherwise the form lacks depth). She's sure to get much further (the dam won over 12f and her half-sister was placed in the Irish Oaks), she holds entries for the Moyglare and the Fillies' Mile, so she's definitely one to follow. |
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She's reportedly quicker than any of the trainer's previous good fillies such as Fallen Angel and Laurens
Even at this stage of the season I had Fallen Angel a much better filly (8lbs) than VS. I'd have VS better than Laurens at the same stage of the year, but that filly made progress later. Possibly VS will similarly improve, but the trainer has been quite bullish about her from an early stage that I wonder if that's as good as she is. We'll find out more today. |
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My Highness (trained by Andre Fabre for Godolphin) was well on top when winning the Gr.2 Prix du Calvados this afternoon. She looks ready for a step up to the top mile races later on. The runner-up today had won the Gr.3 Princess Margaret Stakes and didn't quite last home over the extra furlong.
Precise looked professional but still a bit green when landing the Gr.3 Prestige Stakes this afternoon. She's still learning and will do better. She handles fast ground and might be a contender for the Gr.1 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf later on if she continues to progress. |
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Venetian Sun has just won the Prix Morny! Haven't seen a replay yet...
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Yes, VS beat the colts in receipt of 4lbs and I certainly can't knock her for consistency. I'll probably be accused of continuing to underrate her, but a quick comparison of the times suggests to me that she ran to the same mark as before. I actually have My Highness as the better performance by as much as 6lbs. That's the best performance I've seen this season by a filly certain to stay the mile. Whether she can improve another 6lbs or so she'd probably need to take a Guineas remains to be seen.
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Venetian Sun got a nice tow into the race, was switched to make her run, took a length or so out of Gstaad who closed towards the finish, and she held on narrowly. This was her best performance so far. This form is probably already good enough to win an average Guineas, but will she continue to progress, and will she get a mile?
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This form is probably already good enough to win an average Guineas
I have to strongly disagree with that. Gstaad looked impressive when winning the Coventry but the form, backed up by the time, was nowhere near Gp1 class. Wise Approach was only a further half a length behind today, so for this to be Guineas winning class you'd need to also rate him quite highly. Good luck though if you're willing to back her. |
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I will be aiming to oppose VS in her next start as this win looks like it's going to be overrated (as far as I'm concerned). I'll be very surprised if that level will take her to further Gp1 success even back against her own sex.
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Fair enough Figgis. I'm just thinking about how the official handicapper will probably rate the form. The winner has beaten a 114-rated (though probably overrated) Gr.2 winner, with a 109-rated progressive colt close up in third. I suspect the filly will be put up to an official rating of at least 110. I'm not tempted to back her for the Guineas on the basis of that performance, not least because there are doubts at this stage about the mile, but she won't need to find a lot more improvement. She's reportedly heading to the Moyglare Stud Stakes next over 7f, which should give us a much better idea whether she's good enough and whether she's likely to get the mile.
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Composing versus Venetian Sun at the Curragh could be on the cards next month: an interesting match-up...!
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Jamesp, I was hoping to oppose her today, but I'd also been hoping to oppose Gstaad after the Coventry, so had to sit this one out. Actually I got lucky that Gstaad was pulled last time as I probably would've backed True Love to beat him, which she clearly wouldn't have on that latest effort. VS might improve more again, it's just that with rating her last 3 starts the same, and this win is bound to receive plenty of hype I think she's going to be shorter than she should be. I still have Composing and Beautify ahead of VS but at the moment I have My Highness slightly ahead of them all because of what she achieved on the clock today.
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Post-race quotes from trainer Karl Burke:
"She's unbelievable, she does everything so relaxed. I've been saying for a little while that she's a special filly and she's proved it there. Early on in the year she stood out in the string and I said to her owners a month ago, she doesn't quite stand out as much and the others have caught her up a little bit, but she's still got so much ability. She'll be better with easier ground. I was very worried when I walked the ground earlier, it's as quick as I've known it here and I've been coming for a number of years now. That dampened my confidence. She'll be better over an extra furlong as well, I'm convinced of that, so we'll go for the Moyglare next and see where we go from there. It will tell us if she's a Classic filly but she's got to prove it. She's got a temperament to die for. I've been lucky enough to have some good fillies like Laurens and Fallen Angel but at this stage in her career she'd be a way ahead of them." A couple of notes of caution therefore: firstly, Venetian Sun doesn't stand out from her stablemates as much as she did earlier in the year, which suggests that she was a precocious early developer and may not have as much scope for further development as some of the others; secondly, the trainer was concerned about the fast ground today and believes that his filly will be better on easier ground. On the positive side, he's sure his filly will be better over 7f. He also revealed that the filly has been working better than 109-rated Lethal Levi (a useful 6f Listed winner). |
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I've just watched a replay of the Prix du Calvados. I must say, I was quite impressed: My Highness looks a nice-sized, straightforward filly with a lovely action and a smart turn of foot. She used the Gr.3 Princess Margaret Stakes winner as though she were a lead horse on the gallops and went smoothly past her to win cosily.
Godolphin representative Louise Benard revealed the team's regard for the winner afterwards. "This was a test to confirm what we think about her – you can be confident beforehand, but the only judge is the finish line and she showed her class," she said. "She is adaptable and has improved with every race and has never had a hard time. Hopefully we can expect more and if necessary she could have one more run before the Prix Marcel Boussac, but Mr Fabre will decide that." |
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Jamesp, actually I had Fitzella's Princess Margaret win as good as anything Venetian Sun had done time-wise. Immediately after the Calvados I thought that My Highness had probably just up a typical Gp3 performance to win, and maybe Fitzella hadn't quite stayed. However, comparing the time with the truly run Morny leaves me in no doubt that it was a better performance than I first thought. I'm not getting carried away, as I still think she'd need to improve around 5 or 6 pounds, but the potential looks there.
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Welcome back JamesP.
Lovely read fellas. Venetian Sun's form keeps getting boosted and she put up a fine effort today to beat the boys. Like both of you, I was impressed with My Highness today. Surely Arc weekend and the Marcel Boussac will be next for her. |
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Lightning quick ground at Deauville yesterday, My Highness broke the track record - all aged - over the 7f, and Venetian Sun was the 2nd quickest time on record for the Prix Morny.
Too soon for serious Guineas fancies for me, but I haven't given up on Moon Target, I do think Prescott will want to target the Guineas as he still holds it in such high regard. Lots of others like Touleen, Xanthos who is entered in the Solario, and Dance to the Music. I'm disregarding all O'Brien's as it's impossible to 2nd guess and I'm not going to bother. Not to mention he leaves it until the last minute for decs. |
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By our own standards for going I have the ground as the fast side of good and nothing like as fast as when Venetian Sun won at Royal Ascot. I'd say the fast times were because it's very rare for Deauville to produce anything faster than good ground for these meetings. Regardless of the state of the ground, when compared with each other on the clock, the Calvados produced a better performance than the Morny.
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guys, a brilliant read as usual, james in depth look at past winners is fascinating, one thing though which you guys already know is, you take a chance on your views at the moment or wait till something happens in the Moyglare and get half the price or maybe even less, so if you wait you will have to double your stake for the same return, myself I can only go with what I saw and the trainers reaction with Venetian Sun,it has run well on fast ground and the trainer said the horse will have no problems with give and will be stepping up to 7furs, my only concern is her breeding doesn't shout 8furs. but i'm willing to take a chance just now. look forward to more thoughts on this thread. cheers.
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There are plenty red flags waving from both Figgis and jamesp. So read these posts again and again. Jamesp and Figgis are solid posters on here and are very often spot on. Antepost betting is another red flag at any point. We should keep our bets until Raceday when at least you will be on a runner. Better to have 7/4 a runner then 10s on a nonner imo. Yes Karl Burke was bullish but so much can go wrong. AP is always a threat and we need to heed his comments. Sometimes they can mean an awful lot. More times ...well ? Minnie Hauk a perfect example again of AP's ability. Costing MV Magnier €1.85 million she is from the family of Kingman going back to Oasis Dream. Composing doesn't have that sort of pedigree but that may not stop her from top honours. She cost €300K is out of Epona Plays whose by Australia. A winner of a Group2 up the Curragh over a mile for W McCreery. The Moyglare will further inform us. Fallen Angel has done me a favour in this race. Karl Burke knows what's required. It might be a very nice race to see. Its not far away so lets hope for the nice weather to stick around.
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Royal Fixation, the Lowther Wnr,she takes Venetian Sun on again,especially
over further than 6Fs,she'll overturn that Nmkt form.Royal Fixation looked good @ York. |
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Joseph O'Brien is a trainer I like a lot, ambitious and goes everywhere, I always hope he beats his father in competition. I actually think he's potentially a better trainer overall, without quite the ammunition of his Dad.
This weekend some informative racing with maidens and a gr. 3 in Ireland for 2yo fillies. Joseph has Queen of Hawaii entered, who was unlucky first time behind Composing, couldn't get a run, then won at Leopardstown readily. By Kingman out of a daughter of Jacqueline Quest, I hope she turns up. Not quoted currently that I can find for the 1000 Guineas, but I'm following this one with interest. She has entries in the Goffs Million and the Fillies Mile later. I like a long shot. |
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Nice spot there, Smoky Hill: Queen of Hawaii did it well today at the Curragh and is one to follow over a mile and further. It was quite a stamina test for juvenile fillies at this time of year, and she came through strongly in the latter stages to win going away. The logical next step would be a stiffer test in one of the end of season Group 1 events: either the Fillies' Mile or the Prix Marcel Boussac (she's entered in both). My initial impression is that she's likely to do better over longer trips (10f+) next season: she's half-sister to a 9f winner who stayed 12f, and the dam was a 10f winner (by Galileo). Smart prospect.
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Yes James, she did that better than I expected.. thanks.. certainly one to follow whichever way she goes from now on. Showed a good turn of foot and I think she'll be suited by Newmarket. Hope to see her in the Fillies Mile.
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Precise won well today.Don't see why the horses behind should over turn that form.
Sees the 7F out well.Looks like she'll stay 1M to me anyway. Looking forward to Royal Fixation's next outing,myself. |
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The Moyglare was a very unsatisfactory race and has simply muddied the waters as far as the Guineas is concerned. Composing clearly ran well below her best, with the 100/1 outsider maiden Skydance finishing just a length behind her, and Venetian Sun got no sort of run until it was far too late. The winner and runner-up are smart and progessive types, who've improved with every race, but it's impossible to say which of these fillies will turn out to be the best long-term prospect. Aidan O'Brien made excuses for the favourite afterwards, implying that she wasn't done any favours by having to make the running into a strong headwind. Maybe that was a factor, but it was a very slow winning time and I doubt if she over-exerted herself in front. The Ballydoyle contingent ensured that Venetian Sun was boxed in all the way up the straight and the race was over by the time she was able to switch and make her run. It wasn't a great ride by Clifford Lee, he should have had her in a handier position ready to switch outside. She ran on past Composing late on but couldn't make up ground on the front two. She seemed to stay the 7f trip and handled the ground, but she wasn't able to show her best.
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Prestige, the winner of the Moyglare, could be Breeder's Cup bound next. The Moyglare is a "win and you're in" for the Breeders' Cup, and she'd love the fast ground out there.
I've not forgotten what happened to Lake Victoria last season after her saunter in America. She was rushed for the Guineas at Newmarket (finished 6th), won a weak Irish Guineas and, retired before the end of the season. Venetian Sun was tactically "inconvenienced" by the battalion of AOB, no doubt riding to instruction. |
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These gr. 1 2 year olds are having very hard races.
Along with Queen of Hawaii, Touleen, mentioned earlier, is one I like very much at the moment.. she seems to have several gears available. |
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There's much made of O'Briens rnrs in a race.Venetian Sun wasn't good enough.
It's as though she was swinging off the steel with no where to go that weren't the case. |
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Last season AOB had Fairy Godmother, Lady Victoria and Bedtime Story. Each was fav for a time. Only one showed up (rushed). A very costly episode for backers. And, I was one!
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The last few seasons A.O'Brien has not been too bothered about the Newmarket Guineas.
Maybe he thinks it is too much, too early. I wouldn't say they are rushed. |
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Well, it's all a matter of opinions. Venetian Sun might not have won in any case but it certainly didn't help that she was hemmed in by the winner until inside the final furlong. The winner and second got first run, and I reckon Venetian Sun would have gone very close with a clear passage. She got going but far too late, never got daylight.
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Touleen looks a likely type for the Rockfel.
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Was quite taken with Diamond Necklace on Irish Champiobs day who won stylishly despite not having a perfect trip.
Not the greatest race in the world but she oozed class. Was especially interested in Soumillons post race comments where he was very effusive with his praise. I know Coolmore jockeys are coached to say every horse is potentially the second coming but I just felt he was saying it like it is and he has ridden some pretty tasty fillies. Surprised 16/1 still available given the Moyglare was a bit of mess so have opened my wallet accordingly. |
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I agree that Diamond Necklace was impressive at Leopardstown (even allowing for the fact that it was a Listed race and the runner-up was officially rated only 94). The only reservations I have about her as a Guineas prospect are that her pedigree suggests she should be best at 10f+ next year and that Aidan O'Brien has never previously aimed any of his best fillies at this Listed race in the past. The best of his recent runners in this race was Content, who went on to win last year's Yorkshire Oaks. Mind you, Diamond Necklace (unlike the trainer's other previous runners in this race) won easily and is lightly raced, so she could be anything. She holds entries in the Rockfel, Fillies' Mile and Prix Marcel Boussac.
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Interesting that the Crisfords are prepared to let Zanthos line up against her Leicester conqueror Touleen again in the Gr.2 Rockfel Stakes this afternoon. She pulled too hard when held up off a moderate pace at Leicester, and they clearly feel she's a lot better than she showed there. They will be hoping for a true pace today. She's highly regarded.
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