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Eclipse - Sandown July 5th

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Replies: 76
By:
Delashay
When: 06 Jul 25 09:56
Even Soumi thought he could win had it not been shedding the shoe and until 100 meters out Ryan didn’t think that he’d win.

Makes for an eagerly awaited spectacle going onto York.

Anyone fancy how Field of Gold would have ran yesterday? Because that’s got to be of consideration as 6/4 Fav with a race yet to be run in between.

Noted Hannon mentioned Goodwood and Deauville yesterday for Rosellion. Most likely will avoid FOG.
By:
impossible123
When: 06 Jul 25 12:59
FoG will be held up as usual in the International, assuming he runs. He'll be produced late to strike. I'm not perturbed if Keane is suspended and Mr Murphy or Marquand rides. I think he'll win. I think Ombudsman might be down in trip eg 9f.
By:
Figgis
When: 06 Jul 25 15:15
I see the RP have Ombudsman 7lbs lower yesterday than for the POW. The problem for them was they just went way too high on the POW form, but glad they haven't tried to double down and make the Eclipse seem better than it actually was.
By:
Delashay
When: 06 Jul 25 18:01
It was a totally different race, track and the way that it was run. Yet he still showed himself to be top class amongst the horses around.
POW winners didn’t have a good record in the Eclipse and he almost bulked that trend from an out of form stable.

Once again AOB spaced races right and bought the right horse for the trip that day.
By:
Delashay
When: 06 Jul 25 18:05
But let’s remember that he bought two horses and doubled his chances.

I’ve asked how to post a photo but no one has helped.

Have a look at the two alongside on the line. It was a mighty performance to give such a big horse 10lb.
By:
Figgis
When: 06 Jul 25 18:09
Well if Ombudsman is top class he hasn't shown it on the clock yet. He's about 4lbs short of an average (average as in typically decent) POW winner. Maybe he will show he is up to scratch in a fast run race where he gets a clear run, but after yesterday's Eclipse performance I'll wait until I see it. As for the Post rating him above the likes of Stoute's Crystal Ocean, I'd say he's more like Telescope.
By:
Delashay
When: 06 Jul 25 18:21
I’m not sure I’d use Crystal Ocean as a benchmark regardless of the ratings.

What we have is what’s around now and within that pool I’d say that he’s top clsss, the (ratings aside) his effort to back up his Ascot run and almost become the 3rd horse to do the POW Eclipse double is something that’s rare.
By:
impossible123
When: 06 Jul 25 18:24
I think the performance of Ombudsman in the PoW was over-rated; Los Angeles and Facteur were both given an injudicious ride; the turnaround of just over 17 days could be another reason why Ombudsman seemed to tire up the Sandown hill.

Delacroix is being aimed at the Juddmonte Int also the probable race of FoG. Very possibly Ruling Court and Ombudsman too.
By:
Figgis
When: 06 Jul 25 18:24
Normally I'd accept the closeness of the POW to the Eclipse as being a possible negative, but that's when a horse runs a really fast figure in the POW and has quite a hard race. Ombudsman did neither of those things. As said, his time performance was about 4lbs (2 lengths) short, and because of the trouble in running his delayed effort meant he didn't have as hard a race as if he'd kicked on over a furlong out. He ran the final furlong in under 12 sec. No excuse on that score, in my view.
By:
Delashay
When: 06 Jul 25 18:32
I’d asked you if he benefited from a pace collapse in your opinion at Ascot and you’d said no.

As said I’m not a ratings or time buff and every season we get this is this good and that is that level. We have different approaches and I’d like to be more involved as you are in times but I take what we have in the now as ratings aren’t always right as we know.

You only have to look at Timeforms top three picks to steer clear!

You’re a ratings purist, like Sandown, have seen more and I respect what you both say.
By:
Delashay
When: 06 Jul 25 18:36
In short I enjoy the racing and get tired with comparing because I think it’s false to try judge over the years and circumstances.

It’s like comparing boxers.

Sandown I recall your posts about Deep Impact and the journo who’d bigged him up in the post all year before the Arc.

Since then even though I was on ew @ 7/1 I never follow what people or ratings say, there’s always a different angke to what’s on paper.
By:
Figgis
When: 06 Jul 25 18:36
If we don't put a horse's ability into a historical context then there's no point. Calling horses top class just because they're beating a load of current third raters is nonsense.
By:
Delashay
When: 06 Jul 25 18:39
I understand that but we’ve both said that the French crop didn’t seem good and yet they won a G1 today, beating two one time favs.

A Guineas runner upper to the second top rated -  and wonder horse Lion where you been?!
By:
Figgis
When: 06 Jul 25 18:42
And I'm not talking about who is the best in any race fan's opinion. That is their opinion and there can be different criteria applied. A horse who ran four 139 performances in its career could be considered better than one which ran 140 once and then a load of moderate efforts. As could a horse considered to be more versatile trip wise. I'm talking about handicapping. Beating Anmaat by 2 lengths should not merit being handicapped as the best POW of the last 10 years.
By:
Figgis
When: 06 Jul 25 18:45
they won a G1 today, beating two one time favs

They did, but take a look at the level of performance. A half a length between the first 4. Whether using time or form that race couldn't be called top class. A Gp1 in name only, the winning performance was Gp3, at best.
By:
Delashay
When: 06 Jul 25 18:48
I can see your point but to me Amnat is a great consistent horse who gives his best. I look back at what Frankel beat and bedsides an ageing Cirrus it wasn’t much.
He never travelled either and for me racing is international and we want to see the best of the best compete.

Agree like the PDJC was a bunched finish, like the Dante and you’re most likely right in the grade that you give it.

But as punters we care more about winners than history and where the last winner sits amongst in general.
By:
Delashay
When: 06 Jul 25 18:49
*Amongst them
By:
Delashay
When: 06 Jul 25 18:51
I enjoy the convo Figgis.
By:
Figgis
When: 06 Jul 25 19:02
But as punters we care more about winners than history and where the last winner sits amongst in general

That's fair enough, as long as it doesn't stretch to hyperbole about sub-par Gp1 winners. In today's Prix Jean Prat a punter could easily have taken the view beforehand that it probably might not require a Gp1 performance if Shadow Of Light and TLIW underperformed again. SOL was the only horse to have previously put up anything like a genuine Gp1 effort when winning the Middle Park, but that seems a long time ago now. People got carried away with his Guineas effort but off that slow early pace it proved nothing. I started to feel a bit sick watching the race as I had considered backing Maranoa Charlie but decided against, and for a moment I thought he might win.
By:
Delashay
When: 07 Jul 25 08:38
I understand that and maybe it’s why I’m not into the ratings side of things as it’s the media hype or hyperbole as you say that doesn’t interest me.
I’d written on the Horseracing thread that Head has said he’s the best he’s had, more hype and included an interview with the jockey. I’ve said before that he’s not my fav as he always gets into or find trouble.
From a ratings perspective the race might not be great, but from a for perspective it worked out. Both he and Woodshauna had beaten each other over different trips. I thought Marona had the edge over 7f.

It’s another G1 for Graffard.
By:
Delashay
When: 07 Jul 25 08:38
*From a form
By:
Delashay
When: 07 Jul 25 09:10
For me the ratings and form real,y take on another dimension when horses travel. I don’t have an idea of how he’s rated but I’d call Romantic Warrior a proper horse. In that he left his back yard where he was dominant and transferred his form onto the Dirt (I know that they train on it at Sha Tin).
I was against him in the Dubai turf because of the hard race that he’d had previously. The form can be crabbed but for me he’s still a yardstick to a level.
By:
Figgis
When: 07 Jul 25 10:24
I'd say Woodshauna is highly unlikely to even come close to winning another Gp1, even in a poor year like this.
By:
Delashay
When: 07 Jul 25 10:37
I wouldn’t disagree but that ship has now sailed. How about any of the others from the race?
By:
Delashay
When: 07 Jul 25 10:39
These are from the horse racing forum :

Delashay • July 7, 2025 8:49 AM BST
You can add the likes of Dancing Gemini into that for knocking on the G1 door.

The Jean Prat was always a weak consolation G1 for milers from ours and their Guineas to take in.

They kept the status but changed the distance and the track, more emphasis on speed, as you had to stay to win when at Chantilly.

Shadow of Lights season has fallen apart from what was a great run first time up in the Guineas. Anyone think it’s odd that he’d pull Ruling Court from the Derby because of the ground.
Yet, run Shadow of Light on ground that they said was too quick at Ascot? Surely they knew he’d not like?

One horse cotton wool wrapped, the other not.
By:
Delashay
When: 07 Jul 25 10:41
Delashay • July 7, 2025 9:04 AM BST
Top of the morning to you Impossible. You might be right just seems weird he’s a great trainer but I’m seeing a pattern where he has them geared up from Dubai they run their races then it’s sort of a scrambling to get their season back on track.
In a way I was surprised that they brought him back out so soon. If you think he’s a sprinter there’s the Maurice De Gheest short of yesterday’s race, or the Marois as you know.
Should they be running or fact finding at this stage of his career? Confused
By:
Figgis
When: 07 Jul 25 11:16
How about any of the others from the race?

Shadow Of Light is the only one who has put up a Gp1 figure, that was in the Middle Park. The market confidence against the fav that day told that he'd been working better than ever going into that. He duly put up a performance much improved on everything he'd done before, even allowing for the fav below form. He won the Dewhurst shortly after but that was a poor affair and I have him 8lbs below the Middle Park effort. People got carried away with his Guineas run but I actually have that a further pound below his Dewhurst win. The slow pace suited him and proved nothing regarding him training on or not.

TLIW put up what I'd call a Gp2 miler figure when winning the Acomb. Although it's a figure that would've comfortably won this year's Derby if he'd repeated it on the day. I wouldn't say he won the Acomb in a comfortable manner, looked hard fought to me, and he had a setback afterwards. Yesterday's performance was obviously his best this season but I have it 8lbs short of his York win. It's anybody's guess whether he will be right back to form next time and even the yard won't know yet. As usual with that outfit a strong market move will be the only true indicator of how he's been working. The RP say Maranoa Charlie put up a career peak yesterday, but I have it 2lbs below his previous race. He's just not a Gp1 horse, well not in a normal year anyway.
By:
Delashay
When: 07 Jul 25 11:26
Thanks Figgis, I feel that the talent is there regarding Shadow Of Light (he needs cut to show it and the right trip) but as shown am confused by their decision making. The season is getting on and I wonder if Ruling Court hadn’t been redirected if they’d of gone a different path?

Lion of Winter was always backed against Ruling Court for that one win over him as a 2 year old. I always thought that to be a tad bit presumptuous that it’d work out the same this season.

The Forret looks like being a big field this year.

Just seen that Notable Speech has been given a July Cup entry, more confusion or scratching from the stable? He’ll probably go piss it now! Laugh
By:
Figgis
When: 07 Jul 25 11:40
Just looking at the Falmouth. It might end up a deeper race than some years but the quality of years gone by is severely lacking. Let's hope something improves on the day, because on paper it looks crap.
By:
Delashay
When: 07 Jul 25 11:56
Laugh I’ve not seen them!

But saw this Delacroix leapfrogs Derby-winning stablemate into second in this year's three-year-old rankings after Eclipse win
By:
Figgis
When: 07 Jul 25 12:05
I rate them equally, although I would probably put the small p next to Delacroix, as he possibly could improve again, but I wouldn't bank on it. That Eclipse win was still nothing special, however, even if it was exciting and dramatic to watch. I'd say Paddington was a very good winner of the race, not outstanding like Sea The Stars, but well up to scratch. At the moment I have Delacroix 7lbs below the winning performance Paddington put up.
By:
Delashay
When: 07 Jul 25 12:31
Must admit I had to look up the result for that, not one that stayed with me Figgis. He was on a real roll at the time.
By:
Figgis
When: 07 Jul 25 12:38
Actually I'm not sure how he was rated by the firms but I think generally he was underrated. Might've been different if he'd gone out on a high, but he was unsurprisingly burned out by the time of his final race.
By:
Figgis
When: 07 Jul 25 12:40
I also believe Paddington was a few pounds better at a mile than 10f, but can't blame them for wanting the 10f races.
By:
Sandown
When: 07 Jul 25 15:53
I noticed that the WFA scale used for the Eclipse was 10lb and not 12lb as the 2017 WFA revision has it. I asked AI to explain why so and apparently this happens sometimes when the authorities look at longterm outcomes for elite races. The RPRs show a 3lb higher rating for the winner than the  neck difference would normally provide. Yet for the distance to the third horse of 1.75L they have allocated just 1lb difference in RPR. On TS ratings, those given show ratings of 95, 96, 91 for 1,2,3.So, on RPR's they have Delacroix superior to Ombudsman by 3lbs but inferior on time by 1lb. Confusing?

I would agree with Figgis that the POW rating was somewhat high, but in my view D benefitted by coming so late that Buick had no time to respond although  the result may have been the other way round if Ombusman had been held onto for longer before taking it up, as at Ascot. Personally, I see Ombudsman bbeing better at 12f and Delacroix being perhaps better at 8f.  At 10f there clearly isn't anything between them.

Will we see Gosden's horse in the KG?
By:
Delashay
When: 07 Jul 25 16:58
Figgis I remember him more in his mile races, the firm was franked the next year.

Good spot Sandown, I’d thought that it was more than 10lbs. Delacroix upsides shadowed Ombudsman and I’d love to know how much he’s grown and strengthened weight wise since the beginning of the season.

Also you’re taking a stance with their future targets, I’d shared the comments about him being a miler in Moores eyes all along, those were met with raised eyebrows.
See today that Linfoot from SL is expecting to see him over the mile. Slightly makes me laugh, the narrative of the season.

You really think that Ombudsman wants to go up in trip? I didn’t think that Buick had given him the best ride but on the other side it looked like Delacroix was done at the time he made his move, which he’d of thought was a winning one.
By:
Delashay
When: 01 Nov 25 23:36
Delashay • July 7, 2025 9:10 AM BST
For me the ratings and form real,y take on another dimension when horses travel. I don’t have an idea of how he’s rated but I’d call Romantic Warrior a proper horse. In that he left his back yard where he was dominant and transferred his form onto the Dirt (I know that they train on it at Sha Tin).
I was against him in the Dubai turf because of the hard race that he’d had previously. The form can be crabbed but for me he’s still a yardstick to a level.
Report• Quote

Keep surfing the form lines Laugh
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