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Desert Flower was clearly a fully deserved winner of the Guineas, and with Lake Victoria running below par (a run telegraphed in the market the last few weeks) she really didn't have much to beat. I have the win a couple of pounds below her Fillies Mile best and 2 or 3lbs below an average winner of the race.. It could be argued she just did enough to beat the opposition she was against on the day, or even that she may come on for that first run of the season. Both of which are plausible. To my mind, however, I would think Godolphin had her spot on and the way the race was run does not suggest that she had any more in reserve.
There's that old saying of the Guineas being the last 2yo race. I think more often than not it's quite true, with a lot of winning fillies just repeating their best 2yo efforts to win. Obviously there are others that show improved form as 3yos and go on from there. There's no saying that Desert Flower can't improve again after only 5 runs, but at the moment I see her in the former camp. I don't know if she'll stay 12f. The way she finished her races over a mile as a 2yo would make me think there's every possibility, but I know there are doubts on breeding and some think she doesn't have the stride pattern of a 12f performer.
If she does stay then a repeat of her form would be good enough to take an Oaks in the majority of years. Stay or not, though, I'll be looking to oppose her as I think we may have already seen the best of her.
There's that old saying of the Guineas being the last 2yo race. I think more often than not it's quite true, with a lot of winning fillies just repeating their best 2yo efforts to win. Obviously there are others that show improved form as 3yos and go on from there. There's no saying that Desert Flower can't improve again after only 5 runs, but at the moment I see her in the former camp. I don't know if she'll stay 12f. The way she finished her races over a mile as a 2yo would make me think there's every possibility, but I know there are doubts on breeding and some think she doesn't have the stride pattern of a 12f performer.
If she does stay then a repeat of her form would be good enough to take an Oaks in the majority of years. Stay or not, though, I'll be looking to oppose her as I think we may have already seen the best of her.
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"no doubt Coolmore will let them all run"
Indeed, when they do not have a shortie of the fav to minimise the chances of others. But, The Lion In Winter will be an absentee come last dec. Betfair market is usually spot-on, regardless.
Indeed, when they do not have a shortie of the fav to minimise the chances of others. But, The Lion In Winter will be an absentee come last dec. Betfair market is usually spot-on, regardless.
Just to have an interest I did a small Oaks/Derby win double
Wemightakedlongway 16/1 and Purview 33/1
Wemightakedlongway 16/1 and Purview 33/1
No Epsom bid for promising Dermot Weld Derby entry as trainer opts to 'give him more time'
Dermot Weld will not be winning his second Derby this year after the trainer ruled Purview out of Saturday's showdown at Epsom.
The Kingman colt went into plenty of notebooks after chasing home Derby favourite Delacroix in a trial at Leopardstown last time on what was only his second start, but Weld has resisted the temptation of having a crack at the world's most famous Flat race.
Instead, the Rosewell House trainer, who famously teamed up with the late Pat Smullen to land the Derby with Harzand in 2016, will take the patient approach with the promising Purview.
"He's not going to run in the Derby," said Weld. "I'm very happy with him and he's in great order, but he's a big horse and I'd just like to give him a little more time. Everything might just have happened a bit too soon for him at Epsom.
From the post 31st May
Dermot Weld will not be winning his second Derby this year after the trainer ruled Purview out of Saturday's showdown at Epsom.
The Kingman colt went into plenty of notebooks after chasing home Derby favourite Delacroix in a trial at Leopardstown last time on what was only his second start, but Weld has resisted the temptation of having a crack at the world's most famous Flat race.
Instead, the Rosewell House trainer, who famously teamed up with the late Pat Smullen to land the Derby with Harzand in 2016, will take the patient approach with the promising Purview.
"He's not going to run in the Derby," said Weld. "I'm very happy with him and he's in great order, but he's a big horse and I'd just like to give him a little more time. Everything might just have happened a bit too soon for him at Epsom.
From the post 31st May
Delashay
They shouldn’t have taken your bet
I was wearing a sign that said MUG
They shouldn’t have taken your bet
I was wearing a sign that said MUG
They were wrong to have it in the list. Easy to miss a bit of news.
I backed Elwateen when confirmed, but seriously thinking of the cash out. Had she got a prep run I think she would have chased up the favourite in the 1,000, but I said afterwards that the step up for the French Oaks looked a better idea than this race. The expected rain firms up that belief. She is relatively weak in the market. If the favourite doesn't get home this looks almost as tricky as the Derby. Strange comments from Joseph saying his filly was a legitimate contender, but at the same time not committing her to the race. Was he just being contrary? She beat a promising horse on soft last time, but quite likely that one didn't want that ground.
….. is the only other Irish runner after Dermot Weld scratched his Leopardstown Trial runner-up Purview.
Catherine Macrae
Reporter
Published on 2 June 2025inDerby festival
Last updated 14:08, 2 June 2025
They were wrong to have the market up, I’d ask for my money back.
It was updated at 2:08
If you put your bet on that morning on the 2nd they should have taken the market down.
Catherine Macrae
Reporter
Published on 2 June 2025inDerby festival
Last updated 14:08, 2 June 2025
They were wrong to have the market up, I’d ask for my money back.
It was updated at 2:08
If you put your bet on that morning on the 2nd they should have taken the market down.
Minnie Hawk 9/2
Giselle 7/1
Whirl 15/2
Before jockey confirmations. Let’s see how they change.
They are out of line to the market with their OR’s
Giselle 7/1
Whirl 15/2
Before jockey confirmations. Let’s see how they change.
They are out of line to the market with their OR’s
Having rewatched Newbury , I cant see the sense in Qilin Queen at 42 and Revoir at 12.5 , I see the logic but not the price differential . The former may not stay but not much pace about the latter .
said it was weird on another thread that they were running Lion in the Dante as they don’t use it to target Epsom usually. Continuous ran but wasn’t entered for Epsom. I think they’re changing up their running plans to keep things fresh so punters have no idea as to their plans, hence running horses in trials for races that they’ll never go for.
I had the pleasure recently of visiting Coolmore and Godolphin studs in Ireland recently. You are very mistaken if you think that what punters think is given any wconsideration in that regard, you are very much mistaken.
These people are investing millions in bloodstock so the focus is all about creating the next big stallion earner (Wootton Basset is currently Coolmore's top stallion on E300,000 per cover , so with upwards of 120 plus covers a year that equates to E36M pa minimum), I shouldn't think that punters come into that equation.
I had the pleasure recently of visiting Coolmore and Godolphin studs in Ireland recently. You are very mistaken if you think that what punters think is given any wconsideration in that regard, you are very much mistaken.
These people are investing millions in bloodstock so the focus is all about creating the next big stallion earner (Wootton Basset is currently Coolmore's top stallion on E300,000 per cover , so with upwards of 120 plus covers a year that equates to E36M pa minimum), I shouldn't think that punters come into that equation.
Horseracing without punting is very, very unlikely to exist. Punting gives it the buzz, a stimulant some will try to achieve with other recreational activities.
Only the egos of the very rich and powerful will think having the best stallions and breeding the best horse will attract or increase betting revenue; betting revenues in east Asia surpass those of others in the world many folds despite a much inferior breed.
For instance (from Google) the average turnover per race in the UK is £16k; Ireland (£22k); France (£24k). But, in Hong Kong a whopping £155k. Thus, is turnover per race directly related to the quality of the horses or breeding? Nope. It's solely on betting.
Punters will bet on anything, anywhere some more so than others. I'd do the same too if I knew my money would not be going into the bookies satchels or pay out as dividends to their shareholders.
Only the egos of the very rich and powerful will think having the best stallions and breeding the best horse will attract or increase betting revenue; betting revenues in east Asia surpass those of others in the world many folds despite a much inferior breed.
For instance (from Google) the average turnover per race in the UK is £16k; Ireland (£22k); France (£24k). But, in Hong Kong a whopping £155k. Thus, is turnover per race directly related to the quality of the horses or breeding? Nope. It's solely on betting.
Punters will bet on anything, anywhere some more so than others. I'd do the same too if I knew my money would not be going into the bookies satchels or pay out as dividends to their shareholders.
I shouldn't think that punters come into that equation.
They most definitely don’t come into any equation, they aren’t up upfront, hint rather than say - is that wrong with all the going’s on in this years Derby market?
Glad that you enjoyed your trip Sandown, no one picked up or talked about them running their number one in the Dante. Anyone recall their last number one who showed up there, won en route to taking the Derby???
I’ve enjoyed your contributions to the Arc threads.
They most definitely don’t come into any equation, they aren’t up upfront, hint rather than say - is that wrong with all the going’s on in this years Derby market?
Glad that you enjoyed your trip Sandown, no one picked up or talked about them running their number one in the Dante. Anyone recall their last number one who showed up there, won en route to taking the Derby???
I’ve enjoyed your contributions to the Arc threads.
If anyone fancies the Lion to do that then add a smilie before the race.
They haven’t used the Irish trials in years for their first choice. Though impressive winners have been made favourite the same as Delacroix has.
With all the talk of the Lion a sleight of hand trick was played this year.
If the Lion was their number one by as far as was talked of, would a stall difference of four matter? Figgis sees the draw as inconsequential.
If only they were drawn next to each other bang in the middle next to Ruling Court!
They haven’t used the Irish trials in years for their first choice. Though impressive winners have been made favourite the same as Delacroix has.
With all the talk of the Lion a sleight of hand trick was played this year.
If the Lion was their number one by as far as was talked of, would a stall difference of four matter? Figgis sees the draw as inconsequential.
If only they were drawn next to each other bang in the middle next to Ruling Court!
In a well run race yes I do see the draw as insignificant. If we get a falsely run race then I fully accept that the draw could prove vital. On the other hand a good jockey can negate the effects of a poor draw if he's proactive early on while the pace is slow. However, a good jockey can still make a poor decision. How do you factor all these possibilities into your price? A horse that you have a perfectly good handle on up to now can suddenly improve 10lbs or more past your selection on the day. My point is I don't see these matters as worth wasting too much time on and diverting away from the main aim of judging what is the most likely outcome in a normally run race in an average year. Everything else can be lumped under your '**** happens' allowance and factored into the price you'd take.
TLIW was scratched for The Dewhurst. He also missed The Guineas as he did not come to hand, but everything seemed fine with him. However, he was rushed for The Dante because of Epsom, otherwise no Epsom. As such, I think he's Coolmore's No 1 contender all along. Of course, the draw intervenes similarly to Delacroix too. The only one of theirs backed is Lambourn probably because of his good draw, no stamina limitation and/or probable softer going.
If any of these does not win ie Ruling Court, TLIW or Pride Of Aras one can safely assume the winner will be another Serpentine or Ruler Of The World. Hopefully, it's not another US Army Ranger or Cliffs Of Moher.
I think if TLIW can get a good position 3f into the race then he'd have a good chance unless he's undercooked again or have regressed since The Dante. If so, retirement is almost a certainty.
If any of these does not win ie Ruling Court, TLIW or Pride Of Aras one can safely assume the winner will be another Serpentine or Ruler Of The World. Hopefully, it's not another US Army Ranger or Cliffs Of Moher.
I think if TLIW can get a good position 3f into the race then he'd have a good chance unless he's undercooked again or have regressed since The Dante. If so, retirement is almost a certainty.
Was played this year *?*
I think he was their number one.
I think he was their number one.
Jun 5, 2025 -- 11:57AM, paulo47 wrote:
Having rewatched Newbury , I cant see the sense in Qilin Queen at 42 and Revoir at 12.5 , I see the logic but not the price differential . The former may not stay but not much pace about the latter .
I’ve not had a bet but the same can be said about the selection of Kincsem Wemightakedlongway in relation to Minnie Hauk.
The latter is open to more improvement being lightly raced?
Blew for ages after Chester.
One thing is certain AOB knows the best filly in the race is Desert Flower. And, her only nemesis is her unknown stamina. As suc, he's running 3 to try and stretch this to breaking point. The conundrum is which one of his is best to take advantage of his unknown.
A 2/1 shot (boosted) on Desert Flower or use a pin of his 3 candidates. Let's hope the rain stays away until after this race. May the best filly win.
A 2/1 shot (boosted) on Desert Flower or use a pin of his 3 candidates. Let's hope the rain stays away until after this race. May the best filly win.
Minnie Hawk 9/2 Now 5/1
Giselle 7/1 Now 17/2
Whirl 15/2 Now 6/1
Before jockey confirmations. Let’s see how they change.
They are out of line to the market with their OR’s - Top is Whirl second to Desert Flower but 7lbs behind.
So Giselle and Whirl have moved either way. Whirl either wins or blows out. 6 starts 3 wins no places.
Giselle 7/1 Now 17/2
Whirl 15/2 Now 6/1
Before jockey confirmations. Let’s see how they change.
They are out of line to the market with their OR’s - Top is Whirl second to Desert Flower but 7lbs behind.
So Giselle and Whirl have moved either way. Whirl either wins or blows out. 6 starts 3 wins no places.
ELWATEEN is worth a small EW bet at 15.0 . She was beaten just over 2L by DESERT FLOWER in the 1000Gns (most likely winner today) after just one run/win and looks to be suited by the 12f and not inconvenienced by some cut. Crowley was positive after the Gns, as was the trainer. Could easily improve suficiently to match DF. AOB runs 3 suggesting that none of the 3 may be good enough.
SBS said in the build up to the 1000 guineas that she’d like further.
ITV’s tipster also named Tom! Has gone for Minnie Hauk, I wish they’d grow a pair and make the selection before Moore chose to ride! 
He’s selected Damysus for tomoz.
At least you chose Giselle Impossible of your own accord. Good luck to all who aren’t following like sheep and being called tipsters whilst being paid for it!
He’s selected Damysus for tomoz.
At least you chose Giselle Impossible of your own accord. Good luck to all who aren’t following like sheep and being called tipsters whilst being paid for it!
If I still held the opinion I had when starting this thread I'd be sitting this one out, as I haven't been impressed with any of the trials. But as said previously, I now know that the Guineas was run even slower than I had thought at the time. So either Desert Flower has regressed 8lbs since last year (which is a possibility, but seems doubtful given how happy the yard have been with her) or the Guineas wasn't run fast enough to show her to best effect. I'm going with the latter view and even though many have doubts about her stamina I may be wrong but it's not a massive concern for me.
Possibly one or two others will improve enough to make a race of it with her, but if they don't and she stays in a strongly run race, showing the same level she showed to win last year's Fillies Mile, I can see a wide margin win. I am backing her alone and in doubles with Delacroix.
Possibly one or two others will improve enough to make a race of it with her, but if they don't and she stays in a strongly run race, showing the same level she showed to win last year's Fillies Mile, I can see a wide margin win. I am backing her alone and in doubles with Delacroix.
Layed a couple antepost who have have now been withdrawn so any will do. Desert Flower would be best result and is clear best on all form but ever since Rainbow View I tend to not put to put too much faith in fillies early in the season.
Aint a breeding expert by any means, but this field looks like a bunch of potential non stayers over 12 furlongs.
Hmmmm like the Lingfield Derby trial again!
Moore had the whip in the right hand to edge in and intimidate.
Moore had the whip in the right hand to edge in and intimidate.
Well I wouldn't say DF didn't stay, just looked hopeless when asked. Regressed. Well done winners.
These other jockeys just give him the box seat every time! 
Ok they weren’t good enough but they don’t even try to compete early on!!
Ok they weren’t good enough but they don’t even try to compete early on!!
Desert Flower did not look comfortable coming down the hill.
He was asking her plenty early on, outstayed the third.
If you backed Whirl you’d have to be sick that she was used up early with a wooden top onboard.
What was with the move for Giselle!? Out to 10/1 then chopped!?
All in all that stunk.
If you backed Whirl you’d have to be sick that she was used up early with a wooden top onboard.
What was with the move for Giselle!? Out to 10/1 then chopped!?
All in all that stunk.
Jun 6, 2025 -- 4:18PM, impossible123 wrote:
Desert Flower did not look comfortable coming down the hill.
Appleby said that Impossible - she didn’t like the track - and that if there’s lots of rain he might pull Ruling Court.
I thought Whirl would win; she was coming back to the winner. I thought Lordan could have been more a bit more vigorous on Whirl.
But, much of a muchness, this lot. A year to forget.
But, much of a muchness, this lot. A year to forget.
Exactly Impossible but that didn’t fit the script! Ryan thought she’d come back and he’d ease past.
Stay True, Puppet Master, Lingfield 2025 the former ridden forwards but stuck around like Whirl, Moore intimidates Stay True using the Ozzie whip action in front of his face so he won’t come by - leans in today.
I dint think so either was on vapers and only class saw her there, as well as a will to fight on.
A_T, for me she wouldn't have been winning today at any trip. Looks a poor Oaks so that makes it an even worse performance. Narrowing her form down to this year you'd say she was an unimpressive winner of an ultracrap Guineas anyway. She doesn't look the same filly as last year. I made excuses for her but on today's form you'd have to say she was lucky this year's Guineas was so weak.
'BALLSEYE', yes indeed. I cannot fathom why I wrote that.
Desert Flower was beat along way before stamina became an issue.
Once again, team tactics from Ballydoyle was spot on.
Also were played perfectly in the Coronation Cup.
Surely other yards need to learn, and try and put a spoiler in of their own.
Once again, team tactics from Ballydoyle was spot on.
Also were played perfectly in the Coronation Cup.
Surely other yards need to learn, and try and put a spoiler in of their own.
Interesting that the RP have rated Minnie Hauk up to par for an Oaks winner. I have it as the worst winning performance since O'Brien's Was.
It read: “Epsom Oaks winner Minnie Hauk will target the Irish Oaks, while Whirl, who finished runner-up in the Epsom Oaks, will head for the Group One Pretty Polly Stakes.”
That’s convenient!
Bit too close for comfort last time!
That’s convenient!
Bit too close for comfort last time!
That's a positive with Minnie Hauk. On the flipside Lake Victoria has done a runner. She is not Royal Ascot bound ie no Coronation Stakes. Another slap-in-the-face for her antepost supporters. No detailed reason has been given except she'll "have an easy few weeks and will return for a late summer/autumn campaign".
Anyone heard any trainer quotes about next target for Desert Flower?
doubt shell be on a racecourse again, she imo had a hard race on friday
imp, she had a easy run in gns, didnt have hard race in the irish version, christ she shoild be spot on for next week, another ive backed ante post down, probably looking for another trip to us id say , 
Lake Victoria was rushed, and turned up undercooked for Newmarket. She then won an Irish 1000G (CV achieved). Now, off for a few weeks despite AOB indicated Royal Ascot as the most likely target.
I think this sort of unprofessionalism is unacceptable. And, this is one reason horseracing in the UK is going down the swanny.
I think this sort of unprofessionalism is unacceptable. And, this is one reason horseracing in the UK is going down the swanny.
Jun 9, 2025 -- 7:19PM, elisjohn wrote:
imp, she had a easy run in gns, didnt have hard race in the irish version, christ she shoild be spot on for next week, another ive backed ante post down, probably looking for another trip to us id say ,
How are you doing it John?! I thought I had this down to an art but you’re king at the mo!
I shouldn’t laugh but there is a certain amount to laugh at with all his favs suddenly bailing out!
* Falakeyah On ATR just now Burriws was said to have Sid she won’t be ready in time but might go to the Coronation!
Anything to do with Lake Victoria being out?!
Anything to do with Lake Victoria being out?!
John it looks like Falakeyah is being targeted at the Coronation stakes 3/1 - she’s been pulled out of the French Oaks Sunday with Burrows mentioning Ascot but needs supplementing.
Timeform have rated both Minnie Hauk and Whirl better than an average Oaks winner. Normally I'd be chomping at the bit to take on these overrated fillies, but looking at the absolute garbage that's around in the 3yo fillies dept it's difficult to be enthusiastic about anything to take them on with.
Track & ground used as a bit of an excuse for Desert Flower's defeat here.
Wonder if they'll take the 1ST 2 home on again in something like the Yorkshire Oaks.
Wonder if they'll take the 1ST 2 home on again in something like the Yorkshire Oaks.
Penzance, I thought connections were clutching at straws with the excuses, as most of them do. Appleby had said beforehand that she liked cut in the ground, it was only the trip he was unsure about. As to not acting on the track. Of course a track like that can cause the odd problematic moment. But generally I agree with the thinking that if they're not acting on a track it's basically because they're having trouble going the pace. The 1000 Guineas looks extremely poor on time and form. I wouldn't be surprised if we don't see her again.
I don’t care much for timeform and no Penzance they won’t run Whirl against Minnie Hauk again. Desert Flower had a hard race, Appleby said she’d felt it and I feel that 10f will be her limit for now.
Whirl poses too much of a threat to Minnie Hauk. The 3 year old stayers look a weak bunch and we have the Prix Diane Sunday and I’d be surprised if there’s one in it who will be fancies or even entered for the Arc with exception of She’s Perfect who is. (There were only 6 3year old fillies entered)
Kalpana will be more likely to clash with Minnie Hauk at Yorkshire. If that’s the route they are going with the Juddmonte filly.
See The Fire is entered for the Pretty Polly (which is supposedly the target for Whirl) but I don't know if it's under serious consideration. While I'm not yet convinced that See The Fire could beat the top colts I would expect her to take care of Whirl even giving away what I consider a generous 12lbs.
I’ve not looked at that race Figgis I don’t bet in Ireland often. Sea the Fire was most impressive last time could she show up in the Yorkshire Oaks?
I’d take Whirl to beat Minnie Hauk, if given a more sensitive ride.
I’d take Whirl to beat Minnie Hauk, if given a more sensitive ride.
I see it was ten she won over last time not 12f, she wasn’t stopping however.
Just looked at the Arc 4 year old mates entered they are thin on the ground!
Just looked at the Arc 4 year old mates entered they are thin on the ground!
12 starts for 3 wins - 2 2nds - 2 3rds isn’t great. I’d be wary of a short price next time. From memory her best run was at Goodwood with Sparkling Plenty.
I’m not sure that Desert Flower will be retired either. She had a hard race but it was the first time she was pushed to that extent.
I've always been of the opinion that horses only really have hard races when they're capable of giving their best. If they don't go on the ground, handle the track, etc, then they haven't been pushed to their limit. Just more excuses from Appleby.
It’s a valid point Figgis and one I’ll take on board in future. She did do more than she’s been asked to do. Could she go back from it having fought out for third?
I wouldn't worry about See The Fire's past form. Looks to me like she's improved a stone as a 4yo. A bit like Dancing Gemini showed he'd taken his form up a notch at Doncaster. Both horses very heavily backed by connections too, as is the case more than ever these days before runners show big improvement.
She has spirit that’s for sure and I hope that the race hasn’t left its mark. I think in racing we sometimes get obsessed with ratings, wanting to make everything fit perfectly in order but horses aren’t machines.
Thank you for letting us know that you think she has on your ratings. I’d still be wary, consistency is something and I don’t much like in and out performers.
Thank you for letting us know that you think she has on your ratings. I’d still be wary, consistency is something and I don’t much like in and out performers.
Reason why I say I don’t go much on timeform is, Youmzain was always given a high mark wherever he went. This was never adjusted with regards track.
Everytime he ran at Nad Al Sheba I bet against him. It wasn’t his track.
It’s why I mentioned See the Fire and Goodwood.
I felt it was evident last year that City Of Troy would never go right handed again after his run in the Eclipse. Thought he should have been beaten that day by the runner up!
Toe stepping and all that!
Everytime he ran at Nad Al Sheba I bet against him. It wasn’t his track.
It’s why I mentioned See the Fire and Goodwood.
I felt it was evident last year that City Of Troy would never go right handed again after his run in the Eclipse. Thought he should have been beaten that day by the runner up!
Toe stepping and all that!
Re: the Queen Anne - do you like Dancing for that?
We don’t know if either Rosalion or the Godolphin colt have improved the same, yet we expect bigger runs than in the Lockinge.
It’s a race that I’m looking forwards too but maybe not betting in!
We don’t know if either Rosalion or the Godolphin colt have improved the same, yet we expect bigger runs than in the Lockinge.
It’s a race that I’m looking forwards too but maybe not betting in!
didnt expect to see the borrows horse in the coronation
, but interesting race if the french horse comes over
, but interesting race if the french horse comes over
Which she has regardless of whether Lake Victoria was in the race or not.
Re: the Queen Anne - do you like Dancing for that?
No, he's run a few fast races now, plus a hard race last time. Notable Speech looks very much an in and out performer. Rosallion has the best form but that was last year. Too difficult for me.
No, he's run a few fast races now, plus a hard race last time. Notable Speech looks very much an in and out performer. Rosallion has the best form but that was last year. Too difficult for me.
With Lake Victoria a non runner this looks down there with the worst Coronation Stakes in memory. I still think Zarigana would be no better than a Gp3 winner in a normal year. She's definitely not even come close to running a Gp1 time yet. The Boussac turned into a poor event, with the main opposition below par. And she needed steward intervention even to win a rubbish French Guineas. The opposition at Ascot looks like more dross but I still might lay the French filly if she goes off short.
ground conditio expected to be good with good/firm in places from what i read today , perhaps worth an ante post lay this time on the french filly
It’s only the press that hyped her Figgis. The trainer has felt a weight of pressure with handling her.
The top of the Market is based in those in the finish in the 1000 guineas so by default that becomes a bad race too!
The top of the Market is based in those in the finish in the 1000 guineas so by default that becomes a bad race too!
Jun 11, 2025 -- 10:49AM, Figgis wrote:
Re: the Queen Anne - do you like Dancing for that?No, he's run a few fast races now, plus a hard race last time. Notable Speech looks very much an in and out performer. Rosallion has the best form but that was last year. Too difficult for me.
Thanks for your view, it’s funny that we were talking about consistency and you have that feeling about Notable Speech.
He shown that he has the instant turn of foot to pass Rosallion twice now. Will that be enough to see it out on this stiffer mile? As Rosallion did come back at him at Newbury.
I was disappointed with Notable Speech last time. He'd the ingredients to go past Rosallion, but did not. Both could improve given it was their run of the season. However, i think Notable Speech will need to overcome his indifferent form at Ascot. My money is on Rosallion.
Zarigana is over-rated, imo.
Zarigana is over-rated, imo.
Going into last year's Guineas I was confident about Rosallion, so when NS did that in the Guineas I thought he must be exceptional. But even when getting back on track in last year's Sussex NS didn't run to a great mark. In hindsight I don't believe Rosallion and others ran to form in last year's Guineas. Looking at the Queen Anne odds this year if I was going to have a bet it would be Lead Artist e.w.
His Lockinge win might not have been quite top class but I've found that the QA form isn't usually as good as the best 10f races for older horses. With last year's winner Charyn being one of the exceptions. I have Lead Artist up 10lbs from last year, and if he's recovered from that last battle it's unlikely he'll be worse than third and might even win if nothing else comes forward.
His Lockinge win might not have been quite top class but I've found that the QA form isn't usually as good as the best 10f races for older horses. With last year's winner Charyn being one of the exceptions. I have Lead Artist up 10lbs from last year, and if he's recovered from that last battle it's unlikely he'll be worse than third and might even win if nothing else comes forward.
The track bias between the two is based on the running on the round track. He also blew out at Longchamp.
Isn’t as consistent as I’d like 6 starts two wins one third, but the bad run at Longchamp was on soft. So that’s a line through that run.
Let’s not forget either that to Tod the Guineas - SJP double is rare.
Isn’t as consistent as I’d like 6 starts two wins one third, but the bad run at Longchamp was on soft. So that’s a line through that run.
Let’s not forget either that to Tod the Guineas - SJP double is rare.
*to do
I didn’t think that it was a great guineas and it’s why I was against the pair at Newbury with your selection Figgis, plus he’d had the run.
He will see out the mile well as stays further, like Gosden’s other runner.
The run of Maljoom in Dubai surprised me as I’d have those horses as solid yard sticks. Romantic Warrior and Soul Rush.
I didn’t think that it was a great guineas and it’s why I was against the pair at Newbury with your selection Figgis, plus he’d had the run.
He will see out the mile well as stays further, like Gosden’s other runner.
The run of Maljoom in Dubai surprised me as I’d have those horses as solid yard sticks. Romantic Warrior and Soul Rush.
But it’s a race that can throw the formbook out of the window, so I’ll wait until closer the race as all these current prices on offer will change.
There’s a stat re: Notable Speech that I don’t want to give away! But it backs up that at the time it was just below top for a guineas. They may have both improved this year and that’s where the excitement lay in what will hopefully be a great race.
Even if Rosallion returns to his SJP best from last year, I would only have him 1lb above Lead Artist, so there's no way I'd be taking these odds about him. Of course if Rosallion comes to hand and makes normal improvement from 3 to 4 he'll probably blow these away, but that's not something I'll be betting on.
The 3/1 looks big enough to be a carrot!
Then you have one at 5/1 Dancing Gemini
Two at 6/1 Lead Artist & Notable Speech
I expect some movement.
I don’t like when odds are so neatly stacked and multiple horses are on the same numbers, their chances can’t be all the same, within that group that’s a lot of ducks in a row for the bookies to take out.
As they did with the Dante runners in the Derby.
Then you have one at 5/1 Dancing Gemini
Two at 6/1 Lead Artist & Notable Speech
I expect some movement.
I don’t like when odds are so neatly stacked and multiple horses are on the same numbers, their chances can’t be all the same, within that group that’s a lot of ducks in a row for the bookies to take out.
As they did with the Dante runners in the Derby.
Then there’s the Warrior @ 10/1 who would have been the unknown at this level hadn’t he ran in the Prix d'Ispahan last time.
AOB has Diego V who beat Maljoom last time out but not raced for 276 days coming into it. He normally likes to prep in the Lockinge for this.
Cairo
Dancing Gemini
Diego Velazquez
Docklands
Lake Forest
Lead Artist
Notable Speech
Quddwah
Rosallion
Sardinian Warrior
Carl Spackler
Lake Forrest been left in, banged heads with good horses. Has shortened lots.
Quddwah has good course form win his comeback big odds.
Hmmm lots of ducks in a line from the Lockinge potentially!
Dancing Gemini
Diego Velazquez
Docklands
Lake Forest
Lead Artist
Notable Speech
Quddwah
Rosallion
Sardinian Warrior
Carl Spackler
Lake Forrest been left in, banged heads with good horses. Has shortened lots.
Quddwah has good course form win his comeback big odds.
Hmmm lots of ducks in a line from the Lockinge potentially!
SJP
Field Of Gold
First Wave
Henri Matisse
Jonquil
Officer
Opera Ballo
Rashabar
Ruling Court
Scorthy Champ
Shadow Of Light
Windlord
They won’t all show obviously - Cosmic Year taken out for the Jean Prat and a few of these are also entered for it, Jonquil, HM, SC, Shadow of Light.
All the ones with “speed.”
Field Of Gold
First Wave
Henri Matisse
Jonquil
Officer
Opera Ballo
Rashabar
Ruling Court
Scorthy Champ
Shadow Of Light
Windlord
They won’t all show obviously - Cosmic Year taken out for the Jean Prat and a few of these are also entered for it, Jonquil, HM, SC, Shadow of Light.
All the ones with “speed.”
Jun 10, 2025 -- 5:52PM, Figgis wrote:
I wouldn't worry about See The Fire's past form. Looks to me like she's improved a stone as a 4yo. A bit like Dancing Gemini showed he'd taken his form up a notch at Doncaster. Both horses very heavily backed by connections too, as is the case more than ever these days before runners show big improvement.
Figgis
She’s as low as 4/1 with these guys. Only has 3 L to make up on Amnat on soft his favoured condition in the Champion. Wa however behind Almaqam in the Gordon Richards Stakes.
I don’t think that Amnat would be running in this on quick ground if he wasn’t getting on, Burrows is strong on reversing the form with Los Angeles.
Los Angeles will eat Amnat anytime they meet in the future.
I like it TMB it’s 1-1 as it stands but Los Angeles had run and shot his bolt in the Arc before his dismal run in the Champion stakes. Amnat was the reverse bouncing back from a dire run at Longchamp beforehand.
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