ARC Trials

Look De Vega and Continuous look strong favourites.  But I think Bluestocking is overrated as she appears to run good races behind top class horses, but the horses that she tends to finish in front of don't subsequently confirm the form.  As there is a good sized field today with all but one having winning form this year, Bluestocking will be my lay of the day.  5/2 looks too short.

Good luck Marksman.

I have Continuous (29/1)and Delius (40/1) antepost for the Arc so hoping for the best today.

Gone for a couple of outsiders in Ireland.
Lumiere Rock 2.25
Simmering 3.00
Vauban 4.45

The money has come for Look De Vega (13/8 into 10/11). However, connections have indicated there's a bit to work on for The ARC.

The 7f time indicates no worse than the slow side of good, but could possibly be much slower over the longer trips.

Continuous ticket in the bin

Yes, definitely slower on the Grande Course. I'd still say no slower than good to soft in UK terms, although it may get even slower with racing.

I was so confident that Bluestocking would get passed by Aventure with about 300m to go, but she was so tough.  I hold my hands up and admit that she was tough and good, and I have been underrating her.

Well done to backers of Bluestocking and Sosie. They were the best on the day and deserved winners. However, I cannot but feel deflated post this trial. I was expecting a star to emerge. But, even with Sosie (2f) winning I do not think a new star has emerged. 

Let's hope Sosie or even Look De Vega can prove me wrong and win convincingly on 6th Oct.

Yann Lerner, joint-trainer of Look De Vega, said: "He was a bit below his fighting weight today compared to before the Jockey Club and everything is about three weeks. Ronan [Thomas, rider] said he felt he was going to fight out the finish and he just got tired in the last 200 metres."


Thats unusual to say the least! Carrying condition is usually the problem, not having to put it on.

I think the trainer meant "above" not below his fighting (normal) weight. Look De Vega was carrying a condition against the fitter Sosie and others; Look De Vega has not run for 105 days. Also, he was the hare today.

2 funny races today - one in Ireland and France. Bedtime Story and Look De Vega both made the running which neither has even done in the past. The former finished behind a horse (Exactly) he'd beaten comprehensively. Similarly, the latter against Sosie.

It was disappointing today for followers of these two horses. The former could be rewarded with a bigger price in the Fillies Mile, and the latter in The ARC respectively.

Keep the faith!

Sandown, clearly Look De Vega didn't show his best today, for one reason or another, but do you think the PDJC form is as strong as it looked at the time? A few weeks later I realised I must've overestimated the going allowance after Aventure and some others on the card had run again. The early pace that day was even slower than I'd accounted for, resulting in a below par time performance for the race compared with the average. I would be against LDV for the Arc even if he comes forward from today's race.

First, a declaration of interest. I have backed LDV to win the Arc on the basis of his performances in winning his last 2 races. His figures, for me, would be indicative of previous Arc winners, imo. I do not have any issues with the form of those races.

We need to remember that todays races were just trials, worth £60k to the winners of the G2 Niel and Foy, and £300k to the winner of the G1 Vermeille. It would be a surprise if the Arc trial winners were at the peak they will be at on Oct 6.

LDV was disappointing, but it must be said that as an excuse he made the running in softish ground instead of being held up as he was previously, after last running on June 2 whilst the two in front of him last ran on July 13, and most likely were fitter.

The trainer's comment about his weight would  make more sense if he meant "heavier" as impossible 123 pointed out otherwise it doesn't make sense. That needs to be verified.

LDV going out  in the market is no surprise but the year of Peintre Celebre is burned in my memory as he was beaten in the same race but went on to be one of the best ever winners of the Arc.

There may be some other reason for the poor run. From a first look at the times, it does look like a slow pace but again that needs to be verified too.
If all is well, I may step in again.

All is not yet lost.

NB The ARC winner  will pick up £2m or thereabouts so £60k is mere change.

Peintre Celebre is burned in my memory as he was beaten in the same race

That's true, but while these things are seen clearer with hindsight it was a totally different scenario when PC was beaten. A slowly run affair where he was held up and denied a clear run, finishing fast to only be beaten a neck. I think most people excused him as he still went on to start quite a short priced fav. Look De Vega was also involved in an early slow pace affair, but, in contrast, he was out in front, which ought to have been the best position the way the race was run. I realise that that is only theory, and sometimes an inferior runner can show a better turn of foot from behind in a slowly run race, but as its LDV's earlier sectionals that you're basing your case on it should've been ideal for him.

After revising the PDJC time performance, along with other races on the card, I was surprised that the final time was as poor as it was, no better than a Gp3. I realise you're upgrading him based on sectionals but it would take a huge upgrade to get him from Gp3 to Gp1. Anyway, just my view, and even though I said I'd be against him I have no idea with what, it looks a really poor renewal. Good luck with the ante post, would never begrudge anyone taking an opposing view and backing it going on to prove me wrong.

as said the foy is just a trial and the fav may have been undercooked but Fabre and Rouget in all probability would have left a fair bit to work on ,they know what is required for the big day in Paris  having won the arc plenty of times between them , haven't watched the replay of the foy and most of the talk around the winner and 3rd but Delius is sneaking in almost under the radar and he is still a backable price I wouldn't write him off  .

prix neil^^^

https://www.attheraces.com/atrplayer/highlights/6362012318112/arc-still-on-look-de-vega-agenda


Full interview on ATR with trainers son. To clarify, the horse came back into training much HEAVIER than expected. (Misreporting earlier.) He blew hard after the race but is fine this am. Trainer confident he will have him spot on in 3 weeks.

An opportunity at 8.0 for those who are keeping the faith.

To expand on my comments about the horse's previous runs, the times and splits compared favourably with Ace Impact when winning at Chantilly in June so I am confident that all being well the horse will improve considerably in the Arc. Ace Impact was one of the best Arc winners we have seen so that is a good yardstick.

The trainer has NO concerns about trip or ground , his only issue  is fitness.

Treve was not beaten in The Vermeille before winning her 2nd ARC a few weeks later. I'm hoping LDV could atone on ARC day otherwise the winner is more likely to be an average one in history.

Sandown, where do you stand on the argument of geldings being allowed to run? I know that gelding some colts is supposed to make them easier to train, which makes sense, and I doubt so many trainers/owners would resort to it if it wasn't a help. That doesn't seem to be a good enough reason to bar them though. The main argument against is that it makes them stronger and gives them an unfair running advantage. I have never seen any evidence of this on the track. Before this year the only gelding I can recall who recorded time performances in the very highest bracket was Cirrus Des Aigles, and arguably he was a better 10f horse anyway. Goliath isn't quite that good yet, but on his latest effort I would've fancied him pretty strongly against this field.

Figgis.
There would be no bloodstock industry without competitive racing and no racing without a racing ...and betting on horses...without a racing audience.

Racing supporters deserve to see the best horses racing against each other.The Classics work for breeding purposes but the best races for all aged horses should not be concerned about whether they are gelded or not.


Like you, I have not seen ANY evidence supporting  the claim that geldings have an advantage.zTherefore imo races like the ARC and KG should allow geldings to participate.Surrly it is more likely that the  production of testerone gives  an advantage to colts not the traverse?

Sandown, I couldn't agree more. The other argument put forward is that the top races should be designed to improve the breed and therefore produce future stallions. I can't see that racing trying to kid everyone we've just seen the cream of the crop when possibly better horses have been barred from running does anything for the breed. And the notion that more people will start gelding future stallion prospects in the hope of winning an Arc is nonsense.