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Back, by popular demand... the latest instalment of the 1000 Guineas antepost discussion thread...!
The author has taken his eye off the ball somewhat in recent seasons but retains an interest in trying to solve this perennial antepost puzzle...
All contributions are warmly welcomed, provided they are pertinent, prescient and polite!
First off, here's a summary of the contributions on the 'under construction' thread started a few days ago by cryoftruth....
cryoftruth 17 Jun 24 11:18
Hi James
Can you start your 2025 1000 Guineas thread when you get chance please?
And does anyone else like the look of Bedtime Story?
She is by Frankel out of Mecca’s Angel so could arguably be the best bred filly on the planet.
She won unexpectedly first time out in some style.
She is quite tall but as yet unfurnished and scope to end up quite good.
The current miserable odds for the 2025 1000 Guineas will become even more stingy if she wins the Chesham Stakes.
JayTrumpOldTomDubbl • June 17, 2024 11:25 AM BST
The Juddmonte filly by Kodiac trained by G Lyons ridden by CT Keane was quite impressive also. Probably see her again Curragh Derby weekend. Interesting. Could meet your Bedtime Story there.
liberator of the oppressed • June 17, 2024 12:30 PM BST
Was a monster this is the only one Jay make no mistake
cryoftruth • June 22, 2024 4:45 PM BST
Not wishing to say “I told you so”.
But I did rather.
Discussions about the 1000 Guineas now academic more or less.
Bedtime Story maybe ran 116 maybe more. Won easing down by 10 lengths in the same style his Dad won the Queen Anne all those years ago.
Plenty of scope to progress, Bedtime Story looks an utter monster.
Looking sure to get a mile, relaxed way of running, nimble enough for Newmarket, and probably unbeatable.
3/1 looks pretty skinny for the 1000 Guineas and it’s 11 months away. But she look likely to go odds on when she slaughters the next sacrificial lambs lined up against her.
An incredible pedigree by the Greatest - Frankel, out of a Nunthorpe winner.
Figgis • June 22, 2024 8:44 PM BST
My take on it from the time aspect is it was very good, in the Gp1 bracket, good enough to win some Guineas, but no more than that. Very unusual for a filly to run as fast as that over 7f at this stage of the season. It could possible be the best I've seen, at the moment I can't think of another one, but there aren't too many opportunities beforehand in the calendar.
In comparison with O'Briens best 2yo filly of last year, Opera Singer, I have Bedtime Story 1lb behind. Many would credit Bedtime Story as the better achievement as hers was achieved in June, whereas we had to wait until October for Opera Singer's best effort. That's fair enough, maybe Bedtime Story will be capable of even better as the season progresses. However, personally I've never subscribed to the theory that all 2yos progress at the same rate, so I'd rather wait until I actually see it.
It's not just about being good enough now, they need to be as good come Guineas day. We've seen this year with Opera Singer that things don't always go smoothly. Opera Singer had 7 months to get there, this filly has nearly 11 months to go and more racing to do. In my view, if today is as good as Bedtime Story gets she would go very close to winning an average Guineas. But she'll need to improve more to actually be as exceptional as she looked today.
Well done on the early call, cryoftruth. As you say, she will probably be racing against vastly inferior fillies in the near future. I think today's performance could possibly even carry her through to winning something like the Moyglare if nothing else decent appears. She's got some way to go though before she can be classed as something out of the ordinary Gp1 fillies.
.Marksman. • June 22, 2024 9:23 PM BST
I keep thinking of the sublime Herbie Hancock track: Tell me a bedtime story.
But I suppose it will only be the other old timers who remember it. Time to get the CD out again. (Fat Albert Rotunda)
A_T • June 22, 2024 10:18 PM BST
very impressive but have to remember the terms of the race means these were mostly middle-distance types and she's out of a sprinter. also frankel's good 2yos tend not to train on - his best progeny are not usually apparent till 3yo
The author has taken his eye off the ball somewhat in recent seasons but retains an interest in trying to solve this perennial antepost puzzle...
All contributions are warmly welcomed, provided they are pertinent, prescient and polite!
First off, here's a summary of the contributions on the 'under construction' thread started a few days ago by cryoftruth....
cryoftruth 17 Jun 24 11:18
Hi James
Can you start your 2025 1000 Guineas thread when you get chance please?
And does anyone else like the look of Bedtime Story?
She is by Frankel out of Mecca’s Angel so could arguably be the best bred filly on the planet.
She won unexpectedly first time out in some style.
She is quite tall but as yet unfurnished and scope to end up quite good.
The current miserable odds for the 2025 1000 Guineas will become even more stingy if she wins the Chesham Stakes.
JayTrumpOldTomDubbl • June 17, 2024 11:25 AM BST
The Juddmonte filly by Kodiac trained by G Lyons ridden by CT Keane was quite impressive also. Probably see her again Curragh Derby weekend. Interesting. Could meet your Bedtime Story there.
liberator of the oppressed • June 17, 2024 12:30 PM BST
Was a monster this is the only one Jay make no mistake
cryoftruth • June 22, 2024 4:45 PM BST
Not wishing to say “I told you so”.
But I did rather.
Discussions about the 1000 Guineas now academic more or less.
Bedtime Story maybe ran 116 maybe more. Won easing down by 10 lengths in the same style his Dad won the Queen Anne all those years ago.
Plenty of scope to progress, Bedtime Story looks an utter monster.
Looking sure to get a mile, relaxed way of running, nimble enough for Newmarket, and probably unbeatable.
3/1 looks pretty skinny for the 1000 Guineas and it’s 11 months away. But she look likely to go odds on when she slaughters the next sacrificial lambs lined up against her.
An incredible pedigree by the Greatest - Frankel, out of a Nunthorpe winner.
Figgis • June 22, 2024 8:44 PM BST
My take on it from the time aspect is it was very good, in the Gp1 bracket, good enough to win some Guineas, but no more than that. Very unusual for a filly to run as fast as that over 7f at this stage of the season. It could possible be the best I've seen, at the moment I can't think of another one, but there aren't too many opportunities beforehand in the calendar.
In comparison with O'Briens best 2yo filly of last year, Opera Singer, I have Bedtime Story 1lb behind. Many would credit Bedtime Story as the better achievement as hers was achieved in June, whereas we had to wait until October for Opera Singer's best effort. That's fair enough, maybe Bedtime Story will be capable of even better as the season progresses. However, personally I've never subscribed to the theory that all 2yos progress at the same rate, so I'd rather wait until I actually see it.
It's not just about being good enough now, they need to be as good come Guineas day. We've seen this year with Opera Singer that things don't always go smoothly. Opera Singer had 7 months to get there, this filly has nearly 11 months to go and more racing to do. In my view, if today is as good as Bedtime Story gets she would go very close to winning an average Guineas. But she'll need to improve more to actually be as exceptional as she looked today.
Well done on the early call, cryoftruth. As you say, she will probably be racing against vastly inferior fillies in the near future. I think today's performance could possibly even carry her through to winning something like the Moyglare if nothing else decent appears. She's got some way to go though before she can be classed as something out of the ordinary Gp1 fillies.
.Marksman. • June 22, 2024 9:23 PM BST
I keep thinking of the sublime Herbie Hancock track: Tell me a bedtime story.
But I suppose it will only be the other old timers who remember it. Time to get the CD out again. (Fat Albert Rotunda)
A_T • June 22, 2024 10:18 PM BST
very impressive but have to remember the terms of the race means these were mostly middle-distance types and she's out of a sprinter. also frankel's good 2yos tend not to train on - his best progeny are not usually apparent till 3yo
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Lake Victoria will be clear fav next year after her win at Del Mar this evening.
Yes impossible, she did really well to win like that after the trouble on the first bend. The experience will have done her good.
6f, 7f and a mile they are all the same to her. She can also make the running and win, or come from behind and win too. A cert for this race next season if he turns up? The front runners eg Bedtime Story and Fairy Godmother have been eclipsed.
Lake Victoria (OR 118) is by no means a cert. Desert Flower (OR 117), who was still a bit green when hugely impressive in the Fillies' Mile, looks a seriously classy filly and holds an equally good or better chance (in my opinion). She travels well, has a smart turn of foot, stays well, goes on fast and yielding ground and has already shown that she handles the track.
Good as Lake Victoria has been in Europe this year, I don't think the Breeders Cup win did anything to enhance her reputation as 2yo turf races in the USA tend to be weaker than over here, for their grade. This could be due to 2YOs still being pointed at dirt (in preference to turf) because they are hoping to make it in the Triple Crown races or Ky Oaks next year. Whatever the reason I will lay at 4.0.
I know I said at the time that she did it well after meeting trouble on the first bend, but I saw last night at Aqueduct how easily a closer can win from an unpromising position on firm turf, if they have a class edge. The turf out their tends to be firmer than we ever have over here (it would probably be described as in Britain). And it is perfectly level with a sufficient cover of turf, which helps too.
^^^^
I meant to say (it would probably be described as Hard in Britain).
I meant to say (it would probably be described as Hard in Britain).
O'Brien has won the race 7 times, but 5 of those were with fillies that couldn't have been very strongly fancied after their 2yo season. During the same period he trained some fillies who showed close to Guineas class who didn't train on or were not ready in time. The only 2yo filly I can recall of his that I've rated as high as Lake Victoria was Minding. For me, it's all about whether LV is in the same form next May. If she is she's extremely likely to win.
Whilst Lake Victoria has impressive form which should take her into next Spring, there's a possibility she's been over travelled and over raced. Sooner or later it will take its toll.
An interesting development which may have bearing on next year's 1000 Guineas is the wild card entry for the Newmarket December Mares Sale on Dec.3rd of Vertical Blue, Graffard's Prix Marcel Boussac winner. I could foresee her being bought perhaps by AMO or Wathnan? as they're fond of buying success. In which case she could turn up at Newmarket for the Guineas which would make things interesting. She is the top rated 2yo in France, although why she was rated 1lb superior to Zarigana for a lucky nose beating, I'm not quite sure.
On lines through Exactly, Simmering and Bedtime Story she wouldn't be without a chance.
An interesting development which may have bearing on next year's 1000 Guineas is the wild card entry for the Newmarket December Mares Sale on Dec.3rd of Vertical Blue, Graffard's Prix Marcel Boussac winner. I could foresee her being bought perhaps by AMO or Wathnan? as they're fond of buying success. In which case she could turn up at Newmarket for the Guineas which would make things interesting. She is the top rated 2yo in France, although why she was rated 1lb superior to Zarigana for a lucky nose beating, I'm not quite sure.
On lines through Exactly, Simmering and Bedtime Story she wouldn't be without a chance.
there's a possibility she's been over travelled and over raced. Sooner or later it will take its toll
Yes that's certainly a possibility, and the main reason why I'd be wary of backing her ante post at short odds. On form I'd say she'd be something like a 2/7 shot. That's how unlikely I think it is for another filly to come along capable of a higher figure. Her chances of getting to the Guineas in the same form as this year, however, are probably odds against. I always think that with 2yo fillies Coolmore are happy to keep rolling the dice and see what happens. If they hold their form into their 3yo season then it's a bonus. If not, they might have another filly capable of improving anyway.
Yes that's certainly a possibility, and the main reason why I'd be wary of backing her ante post at short odds. On form I'd say she'd be something like a 2/7 shot. That's how unlikely I think it is for another filly to come along capable of a higher figure. Her chances of getting to the Guineas in the same form as this year, however, are probably odds against. I always think that with 2yo fillies Coolmore are happy to keep rolling the dice and see what happens. If they hold their form into their 3yo season then it's a bonus. If not, they might have another filly capable of improving anyway.
The other thing I wanted to mention was that Frankel as a sire does not get Guineas horses in the main. He's something of a failure in this regard, perhaps it will change with LV, but so far just one 3rd place in the 1000G and one win in the 2000G, possibly one of the worst renewals, and that's it.
Considering his record elsewhere, and the mares he gets, this is rather poor and unexpected I think.
Considering his record elsewhere, and the mares he gets, this is rather poor and unexpected I think.
Personally I don't see that as relevant. Sires of 1000 Guineas winners have been fairly random. Galileo did sire 3, I think, but it was more than 10 years before he got his first. 10 years for Frankel is too small a sample size, in my opinion. It would be more of a concern if he'd sired a number of top class 2yo fillies who were fancied for the Guineas but didn't make the grade, but that's something I'm not aware of.
ok, from the top of my head.. Ylang Ylang, Quadrilateral, Inspiral, Perfect News, Fair Eva, Queen Kindly, Majestic Glory, Wild Beauty, East [French], Raclette [French].
Remains to be seen what Exactly does.
The point is, Frankel's 3yo fillies don't seem to come to hand early enough as a rule.
Lake Victoria looks unbeatable but I question whether she's peaked too early in her career.
Remains to be seen what Exactly does.
The point is, Frankel's 3yo fillies don't seem to come to hand early enough as a rule.
Lake Victoria looks unbeatable but I question whether she's peaked too early in her career.
Nashwa would be another. Top 8-10f filly who never made it to the Guineas.
I have a question. Where the hell was Fairy Godmother after Ascot? I saw an interview with AOB in the summer when he said all was well with her and she was heading for the Cheveley Park! Not seen since in any of the 2 year old races.
Your guess is as good as anyone else's. I expect their staff are sworn to secrecy. Coolmore works in mysterious ways, wonders to behold.
Another Frankel filly who did manage a Guineas was Homeless Songs, but the Irish version is 3 weeks later. My impression is that trainers seem to struggle getting a Frankel ready in time for early May.
Another Frankel filly who did manage a Guineas was Homeless Songs, but the Irish version is 3 weeks later. My impression is that trainers seem to struggle getting a Frankel ready in time for early May.
Well, for me, Ylang Ylang and Quadrilateral ran close to their previous best marks in their Guineas, they just weren't good enough. Barring one, all the other fillies mentioned would've been punching above their weight in any Gp1s as 3yos. The only filly mentioned that was good enough to win a Guineas but didn't was Inspiral. He said she was slow to come to hand. Some of Gosden's 3yos have been amongst the fastest I've seen in recent years so it's amazing that he has never won a 2000 Guineas and only won one 1000 Guineas. That sole win was achieved more than 20 years ago by one of his lesser lights in a very weak year. Rainbow View was a filly of his who should at least have gone close to winning a Guineas on her 2yo form but wasn't ready either.
So on the evidence so far I'd say it's more a case of Gosden's training methods not being suited to early targets than anything connected with Frankel.
Lake Victoria looks unbeatable but I question whether she's peaked too early in her career
I agree with that. It's not a question of her not being able to improve further, as in my view she's already shown form good enough to have won an above average Guineas. It's just a question of whether she can be maintained at (or brought back to) this level next year.
So on the evidence so far I'd say it's more a case of Gosden's training methods not being suited to early targets than anything connected with Frankel.
Lake Victoria looks unbeatable but I question whether she's peaked too early in her career
I agree with that. It's not a question of her not being able to improve further, as in my view she's already shown form good enough to have won an above average Guineas. It's just a question of whether she can be maintained at (or brought back to) this level next year.
Homeless Songs won her trial in early April, so it seems unlikely that she wouldn't have been ready for May. I don't know why Weld didn't run her at Newmarket but he is known for being extremely patient with his runners. Possibly he wanted to give her an easier option at the Curragh or maybe was waiting for softer ground.
Gosden had a good 2YR old filly called Nannina she was winter jolly for the 1000G.
She was well btn but went on & won the Coronation Stks next run.
She was well btn but went on & won the Coronation Stks next run.
I don't understand all the hype about Lake Victoria and references to her being unbeatable (if in the same form next spring). Sure, she's shown very smart form and is clearly good enough to win an average Guineas, but surely the same applies to Desert Flower, who was hugely impressive in the Fillies' Mile and is officially rated just one pound behind Lake Victoria. I find it hard to rate one higher than the other, so why is there so little talk about the Godolphin filly? Do you think she's been overrated?
I think the Fillies Mile was the worst of the 3 gr. 1's, including the Cheveley Park and Marcel Boussac. The 3 O'Brien fillies she beat were there for gr. 1 black type it seems to me, and are not in the top rank over a mile. The 3rd Ballet Slippers was supplemented for the 10f Criterium de Saint Cloud but got pulled out at the last minute, which suggests she's a stayer in the making.
Desert Flower's form in the May Hill is nothing to write home about either with Miss Tonnerre not beaten far in 4th, but yes obviously she's the one that LV has to beat, although I'm interested in Verse of Love too. Can't wait to see her again actually.
The thing about Lake Victoria for me is that what she did in just a few weeks was unprecedented, showing an amazing versatility. Can't fail to be impressed.
Desert Flower's form in the May Hill is nothing to write home about either with Miss Tonnerre not beaten far in 4th, but yes obviously she's the one that LV has to beat, although I'm interested in Verse of Love too. Can't wait to see her again actually.
The thing about Lake Victoria for me is that what she did in just a few weeks was unprecedented, showing an amazing versatility. Can't fail to be impressed.
Do you think she's been overrated?
Well it's all about opinions/methods of compiling ratings. Personally I have Desert Flower just about good enough to win an average Guineas. I have Lake Victoria 4lbs ahead of her, better than average. Either filly could improve again, but in my view the top 2yo fillies rarely improve much at all from 2 to 3, they've just matured faster. It's generally the ones who weren't quite top class at 2 that may catch them up. Then there's the Appleby factor. He's had a few good 2yo fillies that did nothing later. This could all just have been bad luck, as he has won the 2000 Guineas, so we know he can hit the early targets if he has the ammunition.
Well it's all about opinions/methods of compiling ratings. Personally I have Desert Flower just about good enough to win an average Guineas. I have Lake Victoria 4lbs ahead of her, better than average. Either filly could improve again, but in my view the top 2yo fillies rarely improve much at all from 2 to 3, they've just matured faster. It's generally the ones who weren't quite top class at 2 that may catch them up. Then there's the Appleby factor. He's had a few good 2yo fillies that did nothing later. This could all just have been bad luck, as he has won the 2000 Guineas, so we know he can hit the early targets if he has the ammunition.
Probably false memory regarding Appleby and 2yo fillies. Don't think he's had many decent types like I'd imagined. Unless I've forgotten some Desert Flower is probably the best he's had.
Rather like the Frankel factor I mentioned. Saeed bin Suroor was always the Guineas man, really good record. Appleby needs to step up, especially considering what he has to work with now, but next year could be the turning point.
As for the others, Fairy Godmother remains the joker in the pack, until we find out more. All the interviews they do with O'Brien, yet nobody ever asks the question.
As for the others, Fairy Godmother remains the joker in the pack, until we find out more. All the interviews they do with O'Brien, yet nobody ever asks the question.
Agreed, Appleby has yet to hit the mark in the 1000 Guineas, but he's had very few top class two year old fillies to work with until now. He'd never won the Fillies' Mile until this season with Desert Flower, he's never won the Cheveley Park Stakes or the Moyglare Stud Stakes, and his two Prix Marcel Boussac winners have had mixed fortunes: Wuheida wasn't ready for the first part of her three year old season (later won a Grade 1 at the Breeders' Cup) and Wild Illusion was only 4th in a substandard Guineas before going on to win two Group 1's later in the season over 10f.
I'm not too bothered about the lack of strength in depth to the May Hill form: she was still quite raw and reportedly hard to manage that day, taking on Will Buick on the way to the start, but she still won comfortably. She was much calmer in the prelims at Newmarket and despite taking time to find her feet in the Dip, once she hit the rising ground she powered home to beat January (a filly that had progressed with every race up to the May Hill) by 4 lengths further than she'd beaten her at Doncaster and in a fast time. This was a huge step forward and with normal improvement from 2 to 3 you'd have to think that she'll be a genuine Group 1 performer next year. Pedigree suggests that a mile will be her optimum trip.
Lake Victoria ticks most of the same boxes and I find it hard to pick between these two unbeaten fillies.
I'm not too bothered about the lack of strength in depth to the May Hill form: she was still quite raw and reportedly hard to manage that day, taking on Will Buick on the way to the start, but she still won comfortably. She was much calmer in the prelims at Newmarket and despite taking time to find her feet in the Dip, once she hit the rising ground she powered home to beat January (a filly that had progressed with every race up to the May Hill) by 4 lengths further than she'd beaten her at Doncaster and in a fast time. This was a huge step forward and with normal improvement from 2 to 3 you'd have to think that she'll be a genuine Group 1 performer next year. Pedigree suggests that a mile will be her optimum trip.
Lake Victoria ticks most of the same boxes and I find it hard to pick between these two unbeaten fillies.
Does anyone know when the initial entries for both Guineas are made please? I'm unable to find it on the BHA site - typical. Thanks.
From memory, the Newmarket Guineas entries are normally published in early March, about two months before the race. The Irish Guineas entries are already out, and they provide a pointer to some of the likely entries for Newmarket.
aah ok thanks. Quite late, I thought it was earlier than that. I've seen the Irish entries.
An interesting development today at Tattersalls in that Vertical Blue was sold for 3.2 million to an American, who intends to keep the filly in training with Francis Graffard, which means he will have something of a dilemma, as he will want to aim his principal patron the Aga Khan's Zarigana at the French 1000 I would have thought, which may mean this filly comes to Newmarket. Graffard has a line through Cheveley Park 6th Rayevka and her formline with the Moyglare fillies puts her in with a chance.
Graffard, quoted in the RP: "She’s for a new owner so I will discuss [next year] with him but I don’t see why she couldn’t challenge for the Guineas and then I think she can stay the ten furlongs of the French Oaks,” he said. “Maybe he would like to send her to America to race also, so we have plenty of options.”
It's not clear whether 'Guineas' refers to Newmarket or the French equivalent, but I guess it's quite possible that either Vertical Blue or Zarigana could come over for our Guineas. If so, there could be a little bit of value from the betting angle, since French-trained fillies are often overpriced compared with runners from the big UK & Ireland stables.
It's not clear whether 'Guineas' refers to Newmarket or the French equivalent, but I guess it's quite possible that either Vertical Blue or Zarigana could come over for our Guineas. If so, there could be a little bit of value from the betting angle, since French-trained fillies are often overpriced compared with runners from the big UK & Ireland stables.
I'm reading that as the Newmarket Guineas as he's speaking in English and he referred to French Oaks. I expect she'll reappear in the Prix Imprudence next April, the usual trial race if coming over, as Zarigana is already earmarked for the Prix de la Grotte a few days later, the trial for the French.
This might have little bearing on next year's 1000 Guineas but an interesting line of form to be had with the Hanshin Juvenile Fillies [gr.1] at Kyoto Japan on Sunday, 1600m, their top juvenile fillies race, equivalent to our Fillies Mile, as one of the favourites is May Day Ready to be ridden by Frankie Dettori as she was at Del Mar when a 1.5 length second to Lake Victoria. It will be good to see how that form holds up here.
Brown Ratchet ridden by Christophe Lemaire likely to be the main danger, winner of the gr. 3 Artemis Stakes, a noted trial for this race, and one I like Run For Vow who beat colts in a gr. 2 earlier.
The usual 18 fillies go to post, form in the RP. A race I shall be watching at 06.40 Sunday morning.
Brown Ratchet ridden by Christophe Lemaire likely to be the main danger, winner of the gr. 3 Artemis Stakes, a noted trial for this race, and one I like Run For Vow who beat colts in a gr. 2 earlier.
The usual 18 fillies go to post, form in the RP. A race I shall be watching at 06.40 Sunday morning.
I often think this is the best 2yo fillies race on the planet over a mile.. won today by Arma Veloce a filly by Harbinger, who stays well and one for the Japanese Oaks next year and likely aimed at their Guineas too.
Dettori's May Day Ready was 13th, beaten about 9 lengths. Up there most of the way and had every chance but faded badly.
Brown Ratchet never showed and Run For Vow got hampered in the straight but didn't stay.
I really don't think Lake Victoria would have figured in that, to be honest.
Dettori's May Day Ready was 13th, beaten about 9 lengths. Up there most of the way and had every chance but faded badly.
Brown Ratchet never showed and Run For Vow got hampered in the straight but didn't stay.
I really don't think Lake Victoria would have figured in that, to be honest.
Of May Day Ready, Dettori said,...
“The race was good, I had a good position, but the filly had a long season. She prefers really fast ground—
it was a little bit loose, and the first time right-handed confused her a little bit. So, the combination of the
three things was why she ran no race today. And also, it’s the fifth run in four months so she’s tired, it was
a long way here,”
“The race was good, I had a good position, but the filly had a long season. She prefers really fast ground—
it was a little bit loose, and the first time right-handed confused her a little bit. So, the combination of the
three things was why she ran no race today. And also, it’s the fifth run in four months so she’s tired, it was
a long way here,”
Only one winner of the 1000G. Desert Flower will hose up.
The Guineas entries are out today.
As alluded to earlier, Graffard's Vertical Blue is entered but Zarigana is not.
In both Guineas it's the usual 2 stable domination.
As alluded to earlier, Graffard's Vertical Blue is entered but Zarigana is not.
In both Guineas it's the usual 2 stable domination.
Any news on Lake Victoria. Significant drift over the last month having been around 4.3 now out to 7.0 friendless.
The drift has been gradual until today. She's out to 6/1 with a few high street bookies, but only 5/2 for the Irish version though; this year's English and Irish Guineas are run on the same day. Any consolation there's been money for Fairy GodMother lately. A more likely runner here perhaps, with Lake Victoria Irish version bound.
But, Bedtime Story is still friendless.
But, Bedtime Story is still friendless.
think youve got facts incorrect there Imp , re the guineas same day
Betfair market suggests its all over for Lake Victoria
guineases in just over a months time, and no news regarding the main contenders
Oh there is plenty of news elisjohn - it just doesn't filter through to us!
'elisjohn', I thought that was odd initially; I was going on the date given by Oddschecker. Nevertheless, it's concerning for backers of Lake Victoria who was such a prolific winners of Gp 1 races last season. I'm hoping there will be news about Lake Victoria soon.
She's entered in the Lodge Park Stakes at The Curragh on 12th April along with Fairy Godmother and Bedtime Story, and others on AOB. Let's hope she turns up, but I do have severe doubts given the walk in the betting.
Where's 'jamesp'? He's not posted here since 5th Dec. I hope he's ok and merely snowed-under with other life's commitments.
Still not a whisper publicly about Lake Victoria? It's so unusual. No news is good news? Let's hope the best horses make it on the day.
Still not a whisper publicly about Lake Victoria? It's so unusual. No news is good news? Let's hope the best horses make it on the day.
aob peice on attheraces news today ....concerning his gns hopes lake Vic mentioned among others!
Cheers 'FOYLESWAR'. The piece of AOB on ATR was timely and welcoming esp about Lake Victoria; the persistent drift was concerning. Also, he was sweet about The Lion In Winter. Another City Of Troy?
APOB:Lake Victoria
She obviously won a Group 1 over six furlongs which would make you think that she would be unlikely to stay much beyond a mile this season, but she’s by Frankel, so you never know. We’ll firm up plans for her next week, but she obviously looks a very strong candidate for the 1000 Guineas.
She obviously won a Group 1 over six furlongs which would make you think that she would be unlikely to stay much beyond a mile this season, but she’s by Frankel, so you never know. We’ll firm up plans for her next week, but she obviously looks a very strong candidate for the 1000 Guineas.
I'd agree with AOB about Lake Victoria staying much further than 8f. It's game on if she makes Newmarket in May. On last season's form she'll most likely be fav for the gig too.
It still looks iffy about the participation of LV here despite the latest statement from AOB on her. I think £300 lay bet is someone posturing to benefit from shaky believers of LV here and merely a red herring. The proof of the eating will be when she takes in a race either here or in Ireland.
Good luck supporters of LV. 'Denise' is denying cashout on her though.
Good luck supporters of LV. 'Denise' is denying cashout on her though.
O’Brien’s leading filly from last year, Lake Victoria, who won Group Ones over six and seven furlongs as well as over a mile, is also not certain to be ready in time for the 1000 Guineas.
“She’s good, she had a long break, longer than the others because her year went very long,” said O’Brien.
“She was at the Curragh last weekend as well on an easy piece of work. I’m not sure if she’ll make the Guineas but we’re training her for it. If she didn’t (make it) she would go for the Athasi Stakes the day after at the Curragh if she didn’t come in time.
“Knowing her she probably will come in time because she’s that type of filly. I’m very happy with her and we think she’s done very well.”
“She’s good, she had a long break, longer than the others because her year went very long,” said O’Brien.
“She was at the Curragh last weekend as well on an easy piece of work. I’m not sure if she’ll make the Guineas but we’re training her for it. If she didn’t (make it) she would go for the Athasi Stakes the day after at the Curragh if she didn’t come in time.
“Knowing her she probably will come in time because she’s that type of filly. I’m very happy with her and we think she’s done very well.”
Cheers 'geoff m'. This latest update by AOB on his Guineas participants is more definitive and different to what AOB said on ATR just the other day esp about Lake Victoria; the trail of the money was proven correct once again on her. There is still a smidgeon of hope but Lake Victoria will need to come on hand over fist the next 6 weeks. Here's hoping.
As I said on the main thread shocking that two top 2yo's look as if they are unfit to run in 2/5 Classics. Just confirmation of too many eggs in the same basket. If he didn't have anything else to run you would imagine they might be a lot fitter.
I fear the worst for The Lion In Winter. More chance of him missing all the Classics than winning one. He has a pedigree that would have given hope to a triple crown, but he hasn't even bothered/been able to get him fit for the 2,000 Guineas. I doubt things have been right ever since he started missing those backend 2yo races.
I fear the worst for The Lion In Winter. More chance of him missing all the Classics than winning one. He has a pedigree that would have given hope to a triple crown, but he hasn't even bothered/been able to get him fit for the 2,000 Guineas. I doubt things have been right ever since he started missing those backend 2yo races.
A longer than usual break for Lake Victoria given the longer season she had. What would you expect AOB if the horse went to the well one time too many? Also, was the trip to America necessary or was it for a commercial reason post the experience of City Of Troy?
The Lion In Winter could make his 1st appearance this season in that Derby Trial at York, the name I cannot remember. This is a lacking in interest in betting and horseracing or the onset of Alzheimer's.
The Lion In Winter could make his 1st appearance this season in that Derby Trial at York, the name I cannot remember. This is a lacking in interest in betting and horseracing or the onset of Alzheimer's.
If you believe what he saying this hasn't anything to do with a planned break, they are just not ready to run. If a filly has that sort of profile the one race you would expect her to be ready for is the 1,000 Guineas.
https://www.attheraces.com/stable-tours/aidan-o'brien?fbclid=IwY2xjawJPub9le...
A good read for anyone interested. I think this stable tour is a few days later than the most recent update by AOB on his key players in the Guineas and Derby eg Lake Victoria, Fairy Godmother, The Lion In Winter, etc.
red letter being backed all last week for small amounts
I've just been catching up with the news and updates. I really don't know what to make of the news that Lake Victoria might not be ready for the Guineas: surely they must be targeting the race, so what's behind this statement that she might not be ready... is she still looking wintry, has she met with a setback of some sort, is she giving the 'wrong signals'? They say they hope she'll be ready in time without explaining the underlying concerns. I wish they were a bit more upfront about it. I'm not a great fan of Fairy Godmother's chances, as she's been off the track for such a long time and is unproven beyond 6f.
So Desert Flower is now a warm favourite, and based on what we've seen in public and the concerns about Lake Victoria, I can't see beyond the Godolphin filly at this stage.
So Desert Flower is now a warm favourite, and based on what we've seen in public and the concerns about Lake Victoria, I can't see beyond the Godolphin filly at this stage.
I aree with James, only one of Aidens could beat her, the rest are not good enough. cheers.
Desert Flower is as short as 11/8, but 3.3 here. I too think she's the one unless one of AOB's big guns turns up esp Lake Victoria. Fairy Godmother is another if she stays 8f in a strongly run race; Bedtime Story is no forlorn hope either if she settles early in the race.
Fairy Godmother retired to stud. Can't say I'm surprised.
from a few days back . She’s a very good filly. What she did at Royal Ascot was very unusual. To meet with so much trouble and have to cover as much ground as she did, yet still find a way to win was just unbelievable. The form has worked out very well too. She met with a setback after Royal Ascot. She was just a bit stiff in herself. We didn’t rush her as she had shown us more than enough and we didn’t feel the need to rush her back to run again at the backend of the season. She has had a full preparation for this season and everything has gone smoothly. I’d imagine a mile will be a good trip for her and we wouldn’t be thinking about going any further with her at this stage. We obviously have the 1000 Guineas in mind for her and will make a decision next week on whether we run in a trial first or go straight there.
gns trials in ireland on sunday, while weonly starting tomorrow,
Yep, it's disappointing Fairy Godmother has bitten the dust betting-wise. She's aggravated the injury sustained in winning the Albany Stakes from a seemingly hopeless position. Let's hope Bedtime Story can make Newmarket. They were the two antepost hotpots post Royal Ascot. Otherwise, another nail in the coffin for antepost betting.
It just proves you cannot believe anything they say. I wouldn't be surprised if Exactly is his no. 1 for the gns. she runs this weekend.
Vertical Blue is my pick for this race.
Vertical Blue is my pick for this race.
Why is it a nail in the coffin for antepost betting?
Backing a juvenile after Royal Ascot for the Guineas is incredibly risky.
Backing a juvenile after Royal Ascot for the Guineas is incredibly risky.
I see that Vertical Blue has been entered for the Prix Imprudence (the traditional Guineas prep race in France) on 8 April. It's the obvious race to go for if they're targeting the Guineas, but it remains to be seen whether she'll be suited by the drop in trip to 7f, and she might be facing Daylight (placed in the Prix Morny and Cheveley Park Stakes), who has shaped as though she's crying out for a step up to this 7f trip.
Yes she is expected to run I think. 7f likely way too short but it's only a trial.
Much like Exactly today at Leopardstown, who didn't do much but ran on at the end. Very nice trial performance, and plenty more to come. The winner Swelter is interesting for fillies races this season, but not this Gns. it seems. I think Swelter flew under the radar..
Much like Exactly today at Leopardstown, who didn't do much but ran on at the end. Very nice trial performance, and plenty more to come. The winner Swelter is interesting for fillies races this season, but not this Gns. it seems. I think Swelter flew under the radar..
Vertical Blue has been taken out of the Prix Imprudence, which is surprising, so maybe not ready yet, and unlikely to be coming to Newmarket it seems. Although she still has the Prix de la Grotte a few days later.
I couldn't resist a small fun bet on Daylight at 100/1... she's not certain to get the mile and needs to find a few pounds on last season's form but is already quite highly rated (OR 110 following her Prix Morny run), has a terrific temperament and excellent acceleration, and the owners chose to withdraw her from the Arqana sale in December even though she'd already attracted a bid of over 2 million euros. Connections were happy with her performance in the Cheveley Park Stakes, which encouraged them to enter her for the Guineas.
I think it's Daylight's race to lose, don't you? the Prix Imprudence that is.
Interesting from Francis Graffard today, we now have an explanation as to why Vertical Blue isn't going for the Guineas here. Soumillon rode her in a gallop on a straight course with some fast horses and she wasn't suited to it at all, so she was withdrawn from the Imprudence and it seems unlikely now she will be coming to Newmarket. Nor the Prix de la Grotte at the weekend, but Zarigana is in good form, apparently, and will be running in that.
Interesting from Francis Graffard today, we now have an explanation as to why Vertical Blue isn't going for the Guineas here. Soumillon rode her in a gallop on a straight course with some fast horses and she wasn't suited to it at all, so she was withdrawn from the Imprudence and it seems unlikely now she will be coming to Newmarket. Nor the Prix de la Grotte at the weekend, but Zarigana is in good form, apparently, and will be running in that.
Alexis Pouchin again, my favourite French jockey wins on Better Together... Daylight 3rd, maybe needed the run. The winner is not entered at Newmarket.
I just watched a replay. Daylight quickened to the front and looked like she would win comfortably but tied up in the closing stages. Connections said she was carrying condition, but it also sounds like she'll be dropped back in trip to 6f now and she won't be going to Newmarket. The winner looks progressive and will get a mile, so I guess they might consider supplementing her for the Guineas.
Formal at 50-1 looks fair value. With Stoute last year, won impressively fto at Newbury, will run in what was the Fred Darling on Saturday. I think her poor Newmarket run was due to soft ground. A very dry Spring so far and I think a quick ground Guineas is probably what she wants.
Duty First ran faster in the Fred Darling than the winning time in the Greenham, carrying the same weight (9-2) as Jonquil. Also, Archie said that she could be supplemented for the English 1000 Guineas. She could be a contender...
The win of Duty First looked impressive. Nevertheless I'd not go overboard with her win in the Fred Darling; she was comprehensively beaten by Desert Flower (fav/1000G) and Bubbling (AOB) last season. Unless she'd improved significantly from last year I think Simmering and Heavens Gate were severely undercooked for their 1st run of the season.
Is Desert Flower going straight to Newmarket? It's iffy whether Lake Victoria makes the gig at Newmarket next month - the former's only principal protagonist.
Is Desert Flower going straight to Newmarket? It's iffy whether Lake Victoria makes the gig at Newmarket next month - the former's only principal protagonist.
ridicioous, 2 weeks and a bit before the classics, and hardly any news about the hot fav in 1000 gns, or much info about anything in either race, racing post news all about bloody trainers championship etc
AOB has offered fresh hope his unbeaten filly Lake Victoria will be ready to make her reappearance in the 1000G at Newmarket. He said "we stepped her up a couple of weeks ago and she's really coming - she'd be there in time".
Just pleased to see Exactly is going , thought I had done my dough looking at the prices on here .
Exactly against Zarigana in the French 1000G? That's daunting more so than against Desert Flower here.
£88 bid at 7 here for Lake Victoria. This is a fairly large amount to risk unless with inside info.
It's looking increasingly likely Lake Victoria could make the gig. She's into 4/1 best. Let's hope so.
The two one-time fav Fairy Godmother and Bedtime Story have kapooted from the race; fingers badly burnt for some antepost. I think Desert Flower is the rightful fav; Lake Victoria is the thorn, if fully wound up.
ive been all over L VICTORIA since her win at newmarket last july and had lovely odds, but since around feb this year ive been laying her geting bad vibes allegedly from coolmore, so ive dwindled my profit, so though i make a smallash profit im in a way wish she had been withdrawn , i will be gutted if she romps home now, but i think the 3rd fav is a massive danger, she has been very steady in the market all winter, as well as SCARTHY CHAMP IN THE 2000,
Unusually I have no antepost interest and while the top two look hard to beat I can’t be choosing between them at current odds.
Instead my dart is being thrown at Simmering - decent two year old who should love the ground.
Was a huge disappointment in the Fred Darling but the stable is in good form now,
Instead my dart is being thrown at Simmering - decent two year old who should love the ground.
Was a huge disappointment in the Fred Darling but the stable is in good form now,
I believe Duty First will get the trip today. Looking back 12 months, stride data was all the rage. Now it's main advocate, Kevin Blake, has tipped the outsider Hey Boo who, on her Fred Darling stride data, looks like a sprinter. Duty First looks like a miler on her stride figures (on ATR website) in the same race. And as I have said previously, the Fred Darling was run faster than the Greenham.
Another trainer not fully wound up his runner on a big race. His 2 winter favs are absentees too eg Bedtime Story and Fairy Godmother. In contempt of horseracing and supporters, surely.
@ 10/1 on here had to back Red Letter.Thought that was too big if
you look with the Lake Victoria form.
GL ALL
you look with the Lake Victoria form.
GL ALL
The vanquished Lake Victoria is Curragh bound. She's a shortie at 2/1.
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