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Back, by popular demand... the latest instalment of the 1000 Guineas antepost discussion thread...!
The author has taken his eye off the ball somewhat in recent seasons but retains an interest in trying to solve this perennial antepost puzzle...
All contributions are warmly welcomed, provided they are pertinent, prescient and polite!
First off, here's a summary of the contributions on the 'under construction' thread started a few days ago by cryoftruth....
cryoftruth 17 Jun 24 11:18
Hi James
Can you start your 2025 1000 Guineas thread when you get chance please?
And does anyone else like the look of Bedtime Story?
She is by Frankel out of Mecca’s Angel so could arguably be the best bred filly on the planet.
She won unexpectedly first time out in some style.
She is quite tall but as yet unfurnished and scope to end up quite good.
The current miserable odds for the 2025 1000 Guineas will become even more stingy if she wins the Chesham Stakes.
JayTrumpOldTomDubbl • June 17, 2024 11:25 AM BST
The Juddmonte filly by Kodiac trained by G Lyons ridden by CT Keane was quite impressive also. Probably see her again Curragh Derby weekend. Interesting. Could meet your Bedtime Story there.
liberator of the oppressed • June 17, 2024 12:30 PM BST
Was a monster this is the only one Jay make no mistake
cryoftruth • June 22, 2024 4:45 PM BST
Not wishing to say “I told you so”.
But I did rather.
Discussions about the 1000 Guineas now academic more or less.
Bedtime Story maybe ran 116 maybe more. Won easing down by 10 lengths in the same style his Dad won the Queen Anne all those years ago.
Plenty of scope to progress, Bedtime Story looks an utter monster.
Looking sure to get a mile, relaxed way of running, nimble enough for Newmarket, and probably unbeatable.
3/1 looks pretty skinny for the 1000 Guineas and it’s 11 months away. But she look likely to go odds on when she slaughters the next sacrificial lambs lined up against her.
An incredible pedigree by the Greatest - Frankel, out of a Nunthorpe winner.
Figgis • June 22, 2024 8:44 PM BST
My take on it from the time aspect is it was very good, in the Gp1 bracket, good enough to win some Guineas, but no more than that. Very unusual for a filly to run as fast as that over 7f at this stage of the season. It could possible be the best I've seen, at the moment I can't think of another one, but there aren't too many opportunities beforehand in the calendar.
In comparison with O'Briens best 2yo filly of last year, Opera Singer, I have Bedtime Story 1lb behind. Many would credit Bedtime Story as the better achievement as hers was achieved in June, whereas we had to wait until October for Opera Singer's best effort. That's fair enough, maybe Bedtime Story will be capable of even better as the season progresses. However, personally I've never subscribed to the theory that all 2yos progress at the same rate, so I'd rather wait until I actually see it.
It's not just about being good enough now, they need to be as good come Guineas day. We've seen this year with Opera Singer that things don't always go smoothly. Opera Singer had 7 months to get there, this filly has nearly 11 months to go and more racing to do. In my view, if today is as good as Bedtime Story gets she would go very close to winning an average Guineas. But she'll need to improve more to actually be as exceptional as she looked today.
Well done on the early call, cryoftruth. As you say, she will probably be racing against vastly inferior fillies in the near future. I think today's performance could possibly even carry her through to winning something like the Moyglare if nothing else decent appears. She's got some way to go though before she can be classed as something out of the ordinary Gp1 fillies.
.Marksman. • June 22, 2024 9:23 PM BST
I keep thinking of the sublime Herbie Hancock track: Tell me a bedtime story.
But I suppose it will only be the other old timers who remember it. Time to get the CD out again. (Fat Albert Rotunda)
A_T • June 22, 2024 10:18 PM BST
very impressive but have to remember the terms of the race means these were mostly middle-distance types and she's out of a sprinter. also frankel's good 2yos tend not to train on - his best progeny are not usually apparent till 3yo
The author has taken his eye off the ball somewhat in recent seasons but retains an interest in trying to solve this perennial antepost puzzle...
All contributions are warmly welcomed, provided they are pertinent, prescient and polite!
First off, here's a summary of the contributions on the 'under construction' thread started a few days ago by cryoftruth....
cryoftruth 17 Jun 24 11:18
Hi James
Can you start your 2025 1000 Guineas thread when you get chance please?
And does anyone else like the look of Bedtime Story?
She is by Frankel out of Mecca’s Angel so could arguably be the best bred filly on the planet.
She won unexpectedly first time out in some style.
She is quite tall but as yet unfurnished and scope to end up quite good.
The current miserable odds for the 2025 1000 Guineas will become even more stingy if she wins the Chesham Stakes.
JayTrumpOldTomDubbl • June 17, 2024 11:25 AM BST
The Juddmonte filly by Kodiac trained by G Lyons ridden by CT Keane was quite impressive also. Probably see her again Curragh Derby weekend. Interesting. Could meet your Bedtime Story there.
liberator of the oppressed • June 17, 2024 12:30 PM BST
Was a monster this is the only one Jay make no mistake
cryoftruth • June 22, 2024 4:45 PM BST
Not wishing to say “I told you so”.
But I did rather.
Discussions about the 1000 Guineas now academic more or less.
Bedtime Story maybe ran 116 maybe more. Won easing down by 10 lengths in the same style his Dad won the Queen Anne all those years ago.
Plenty of scope to progress, Bedtime Story looks an utter monster.
Looking sure to get a mile, relaxed way of running, nimble enough for Newmarket, and probably unbeatable.
3/1 looks pretty skinny for the 1000 Guineas and it’s 11 months away. But she look likely to go odds on when she slaughters the next sacrificial lambs lined up against her.
An incredible pedigree by the Greatest - Frankel, out of a Nunthorpe winner.
Figgis • June 22, 2024 8:44 PM BST
My take on it from the time aspect is it was very good, in the Gp1 bracket, good enough to win some Guineas, but no more than that. Very unusual for a filly to run as fast as that over 7f at this stage of the season. It could possible be the best I've seen, at the moment I can't think of another one, but there aren't too many opportunities beforehand in the calendar.
In comparison with O'Briens best 2yo filly of last year, Opera Singer, I have Bedtime Story 1lb behind. Many would credit Bedtime Story as the better achievement as hers was achieved in June, whereas we had to wait until October for Opera Singer's best effort. That's fair enough, maybe Bedtime Story will be capable of even better as the season progresses. However, personally I've never subscribed to the theory that all 2yos progress at the same rate, so I'd rather wait until I actually see it.
It's not just about being good enough now, they need to be as good come Guineas day. We've seen this year with Opera Singer that things don't always go smoothly. Opera Singer had 7 months to get there, this filly has nearly 11 months to go and more racing to do. In my view, if today is as good as Bedtime Story gets she would go very close to winning an average Guineas. But she'll need to improve more to actually be as exceptional as she looked today.
Well done on the early call, cryoftruth. As you say, she will probably be racing against vastly inferior fillies in the near future. I think today's performance could possibly even carry her through to winning something like the Moyglare if nothing else decent appears. She's got some way to go though before she can be classed as something out of the ordinary Gp1 fillies.
.Marksman. • June 22, 2024 9:23 PM BST
I keep thinking of the sublime Herbie Hancock track: Tell me a bedtime story.
But I suppose it will only be the other old timers who remember it. Time to get the CD out again. (Fat Albert Rotunda)
A_T • June 22, 2024 10:18 PM BST
very impressive but have to remember the terms of the race means these were mostly middle-distance types and she's out of a sprinter. also frankel's good 2yos tend not to train on - his best progeny are not usually apparent till 3yo
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SO WERE THE OH SO SHARP. MIESQUES, BOSRA, SALSABIL , SUPERIOR THE THESE HORSES OF LAST DECADE OR MORE IN YOUR OPINION > THX WOULD LOVE TO HEAR YOURE OPINIONS OF THE 80S 90S WINNERS .
Elisjohn, I prefer to just rate the actual performance, rather than say which was the better filly. For instance, if one filly wins a couple of races over a mile as a 3yo, say, 133, 131, and another filly wins over a variety of distances over a few seasons running to 130 four or five times, which is the better filly?
All four of those you mentioned were great fillies, but, for me, the best 1000 Guineas winning performances I've seen were Minding, Finsceal Beo, Love, Cape Verdi and Ghanaati. A few of those didn't have the careers of some you've mentioned but I reckon on their day they were outstanding. For what it's worth, I believe Bosra Sham was as fast as any of those on her day, but won her Guineas despite not running to her best.
All four of those you mentioned were great fillies, but, for me, the best 1000 Guineas winning performances I've seen were Minding, Finsceal Beo, Love, Cape Verdi and Ghanaati. A few of those didn't have the careers of some you've mentioned but I reckon on their day they were outstanding. For what it's worth, I believe Bosra Sham was as fast as any of those on her day, but won her Guineas despite not running to her best.
Bedtime Story has been reported to have finished lame in The Moyglare. No Fillies Mile then, hopefully Newmarket next May.
13 fillies remain in next Friday's Gr.2 Rockfel Stakes. The interesting ones are the unbeaten fillies Formal, Tabiti and once-raced Troia. Ralph Beckett's Tabiti is already a Group race winner over 6f and will appreciate the step back up in trip (she won over 7f on debut). Formal is bred to be a smart miler and looked a good prospect when winning on soft last time (slow winning time). Troia should improve for her debut win at Newbury, but the form of that maiden race hasn't worked out. Aidan O'Brien is responsible for six of the entries, but they all look rather exposed and don't strike me as potential stars of the future.
As expected, Fairy Godmother misses the Gr.1 Cheveley Park Stakes on Saturday. There's been a cloud over her for some time: whatever it is, she's clearly not considered ready for this and will be given more time. It looks a match between Babouche and Lake Victoria, with preference for Ger Lyons' filly.
The Rockfel soft ground form looks worthless. The winner had been beaten in a Listed race, the runner-up was rated 87 going into the race and the winning time was much slower than the maiden later on the card. Unlikely to have any bearing on the Guineas.
Flip-floppin favourites in the Cheveley Park. Possibly due to ground being soft. A surprise Moyglare winner having a hard race just two weeks ago, and yes its a fact it was a surprise to connections on Moyglare day. Apparently Bedtime Story showed lameness after the Moyglare 
. But hey-ho its AP and nothings impossible. Even LV with a bit of National Hunt to her back-page winning Group 1's. At 2/1 and bigger its time to find out if this fine Kodiac filly will go on soft ground.
. But hey-ho its AP and nothings impossible. Even LV with a bit of National Hunt to her back-page winning Group 1's. At 2/1 and bigger its time to find out if this fine Kodiac filly will go on soft ground.
By my reckoning Whistlejacket ran some way below his best (7lbs) when beaten by Babouche and it only took a Gp3 performance from her to beat him that day. That said, this looks a weak version of the Cheveley Park and still puts her ahead of the field, for me, but I have her only 1lb above Lake Victoria. Neither filly appeared to be winning with much in hand last time and I wouldn't be surprised if something improves past them. Hopefully we'll see a proper Gp1 performance from one of the fillies, but whether it'll have much bearing on the Guineas is another matter.
I think Whistlejacket has looked a far better horse with give in the ground, which brings the French fillies run behind him last time out into play here.
Today in the Cheveley Park I prefer Babouche to Lake Victoria. Form of Babouche's last win looks stronger than LV. Babouche has done the faster topspeed figure. Babouche is proven at the trip, whereas Lake Victoria is dropping down from 7f and only took up the lead inside the last furlong last time.
furthermore I don't like horses that ran 13 days ago. I have now laid Lake Victoria for Chevely Park
Ger Lyons losing streak in England continues.
The money was right today.
Lake Victoria looked very good today. Didn't fancy her at all.
The money was right today.
Lake Victoria looked very good today. Didn't fancy her at all.
put her away for now, bring her back for the spring , and the 1000 gns will be a formality ,
The late bookies money on the exchange was a pointer that Coolmore had seen improvement from LV and so it proved on the track. Rating Wimbledon Hawkeye repeating the level he ran in the Acomb, which I believe he has, then LV has put up a huge figure. I reckon she has run to a figure above anything I've seen elsewhere this season and one good enough to comfortably take an average Guineas. Even though she improved today over 6f you'd think it was natural progression, rather than the drop in trip, that brought out the improvement. On past performances she looked well capable of getting a mile next year. Obviously it isn't a formality though that she'll be in the same form next spring.
Elisjohn, well done mate, you called her after the Moyglare, which I didn't think was the strongest form.
I think he called her after Newmarket, Fig.
Top shout
Top shout
I suppose the nagging doubt about her long term is how the O'Brien camp view her. After her finishing late to win the Moyglare it seemed an unusual choice for them to pick this as her next race. Plus it's not a race they usually target with an obvious Guineas prospect. Makes me wonder if they see her as all about speed, or more of a 2yo.
i asked on here after the solario if she could be the best of the yards fillies ( the 2 from r ascot seemed just to good to be true for me ) , but i really did like her after the ireland race for the 1000 gns , so personally id like her to either have a prep or straight there . I agree with last comment though i was surprised by coming down in trip for today .
Lake Victoria has surpassed my expectations every time she's run. There's no question this was the best performance by a juvenile filly so far this season, she looked great physically and she showed excellent acceleration. The winning time was quicker than the Middle Park, she's already proven herself over 7f, and being by Frankel she should last a mile next year. She's already good enough to win the Guineas and I wouldn't be looking beyond her at this stage. Well done elisjohn, I hope you got a good price.
Indeed. Lake Victoria has surpassed my expectation of her by a country mile. My two for this are Lake Victoria and Bedtime Story (I've not lost faith yet). I hope Bedtime Story makes the Fillies Mile despite being reported to be lame after her Moyglare run. Her price is 20/1 from 7/2.
Just read that Bedtime Story goes for the Marcel Boussac. Interesting with Zarigana..
I wouldn't be looking beyond her at this stage
Jamesp, how do you view her current price?
Jamesp, how do you view her current price?
Figgis, I thought 4/1 was a decent price straight after the Cheveley Park Stakes, but I decided not to get involved, with the Fillies' Mile, Prix Marcel Boussac and Breeders' Cup races still to come...
13 fillies remain in Sunday's Gr.1 Prix Marcel Boussac. Aidan O'Brien has four: Bedtime Story, January, Exactly and Whirl. The improving January and Exactly might be good enough to step up, though the latter looked an awkward ride in the Moyglare and is presumably rated inferior to Bedtime Story. The likely favourite is Zarigana, who looked a bit special last time in the Prix d'Aumale. Bedtime Story, if she runs, is on a retrieval mission: her lameness after the Moyglare must have been fairly minor and she has something to prove now.
I'm disappointed Bedtime Story is unlikely to be in the Fillies Mile; she'd do with the experience of the track if going for this next May. Apparently, she's been backed (from 6/1 into 3/1) for the Prix Marcel Boussac this sunday. I think it's value if she runs.
I bet Bedtime Story and January ante-post but was disappointed by them last time, they ran very flat but in hindsight and some excuses maybe they will run better on sunday, especially Bedtime who ran a strange race. cheers.
Is it money back if a non-runner in the Boussac this sunday? If so, 7/2 for Bedtime Story is a goer for me esp if Moore chooses her.
When a horse is adjudged to be lame post-race, it doesn't necessarily mean that the horse's performance was affected. Ryan Moore didn't stop riding the filly until the final 50 yards when it was clear she was beaten, so he didn't feel that there was anything wrong with the filly. Lameness sometimes shows up after a race because of the horse's physical exertions and it clears up quite quickly. It can't have been anything serious or they wouldn't be thinking of running her in the Boussac.
Fascinating to see that Simmering has been supplemented for the Prix Marcel Boussac on Sunday. She holds Bedtime Story on their Moyglare running, she's proven on soft ground (when impressing in the Gr.2 Prix du Calvados at Deauville), and she's clearly a progressive improving filly. She could be the one to give the odds-on favourite Zarigana a run for her money...
The big question mark about Simmering is her stamina. She's proven at 7f but she has loads of pace (she was a close second to Fairy Godmother in the Albany Stakes before winning the Princess Margaret Stakes, both over 6f) and is from a speedy family.
I think Bedtime Story (disregarding last run) and Simmering will give Zarigan the hotpot a good run for the money unless Zarigana is a wonder filly. On a line with Angeal/Royalty Bay/Fairy Godmother I think Simmering could have the edge over Zarigana. And, Bedtime Story (AOB/Fairy Godmother) could possibly have the edge over Simmering.
I think Zarigana will be very hard to beat. She's a gorgeous looking filly and simply oozes class. On the negative side, the winning time for the Prix d'Aumale was very slow, so we don't know how she'll cope with a faster pace. Simmering too was very impressive on soft ground in the Calvados. Bedtime Story is an enigma. A fascinating race.
Looking forward to the Boussac tomorrow.
Zarigana has looked like she might have a touch of star quality.
Hope she fulfills that tomorrow.
Zarigana has looked like she might have a touch of star quality.
Hope she fulfills that tomorrow.
Bedtime Story is an enigma indeed. I hope there is pace in the race; 'Denise' fancies Zarigana (1/2) a lot more than 'sly' (4/5); Bedtime Story at 7/2 is a goer for me.
50p to win 40p then if Sly are feeling generous.
i was impressed with the 2nd today tbh, wouldnt rule her out of 1000 if coming over
Zarigana is definitely the one to take out of the Boussac. She looks a very classy filly and it's hard to believe that she was beaten a whisker by her unconsidered stablemate, who ran way above expectations. One of those freak results. That's racing. No idea whether she'll come over for the Guineas or stay at home for the French equivalent. Bedtime Story continues to regress and there's nothing in her three most recent performances to suggest that she's anywhere near Guineas winning class. Simmering was a bit disappointing, even allowing for the fact that she was held up in a race where it paid to be closer to the pace.
On the face of it Bedtime Story was disappointing. For instance, she was settled off the pace, stayed there, mud kicked in her face and never progressed a jot.
The atrocious condition, too soon post The Moyglare, the way she was ridden or her lofty potential clearly busted? Which was it? I still retained a smidgeon of faith in her (but it's waning); the proximity of Exactly in 3rd was encouraging.
But, I think Zarigana would have won if her jockey was more judicious.
The atrocious condition, too soon post The Moyglare, the way she was ridden or her lofty potential clearly busted? Which was it? I still retained a smidgeon of faith in her (but it's waning); the proximity of Exactly in 3rd was encouraging.
But, I think Zarigana would have won if her jockey was more judicious.
You certainly can't blame the ground for Bedtime Story's lacklustre performance: they opened up a fresh strip of ground for Arc day, it was the first race on the card, and the winning time was only 3.40s slower than standard, so it was lovely ground... on the yielding side of good.
Bedtime Story just doesn't have the same physical ability right now as she had earlier in the season. The big effort at Royal Ascot must've set her back. A May filly, so she was only just over 2 years old at that stage. No way of knowing if it has set her back permanently or temporarily. I won't be backing her, but if O'Brien perseveres with her and reports are optimistic next spring it wouldn't exactly be a shock if she won or went close to winning.
reports are optimistic next spring
Or, more significantly, there's a flood of informed money for her.
Or, more significantly, there's a flood of informed money for her.
fillies mile tommorow a good line up 4 unbeaten fillies aob runs 3 ,godolphin 2, at the prices anna swan and ballet slippers are interesting me atm.
What a poor lot. I cannot see any of these playing a major role next May at Newmarket.
Verse of Love looked really good winning the 7f maiden, Newmarket. There are 2 7f group races later on the card and it will be informative to compare the times.
yeah was impressive and will get further than the mile
Verse of Love was 0.45s slower than Merrily (winner of Oh So Sharp). This looks a good time for a maiden winner and she would certainly have been placed if running in the Oh So Sharp.
Not that poor,Wnr's vying for favouritism in the Guineas & Oaks.
My initial impression was that this performance by Desert Flower in the Fillies' Mile was even better than Lake Victoria's in the Cheveley Park Stakes. It was a fast winning time and she was certainly very impressive in pulling clear of a useful looking field. Being by Night Of Thunder out of a Rockfel winner who stayed a mile well, she should find a mile ideal next spring and she clearly handles the track. She might get further but it's not certain on breeding. I'd make her favourite for the Guineas ahead of Lake Victoria, but I won't personally be having a bet at 4/1... I'm going to sit this one out.
agree very impressive, what a super race if both and even the french filly 2nd on sunday did turn up, nevertheless cant have todays winner for the oaks im a big believer in breeding re distance, its about time we had some great races to lock forward too , in a match of the two now over the mile id have todays winner around 4/7 to LV 6/4
I still have Lake Victoria ahead of the pack. I have her Cheveley Park win good enough to take an above average Guineas. I have Desert Flower and Bedtime Story on the same mark, 4lbs behind LV. Obviously there is less optimism about Bedtime Story, given her most recent performances. As ever, though, it's about which filly remains in peak form next spring. It wouldn't be a complete surprise if none of them are, and something else improves to win the race. That filly could even turn out to be Red Letter, but as things stand I view her current quoted price (7/2) as ridiculous.
Giselle goes today in a GP3 @ Curragh.
Had a bet ave 11s for the Guineas,looking for a nice performance.
GL ALL
Had a bet ave 11s for the Guineas,looking for a nice performance.
GL ALL
Only a disappointing 4TH.Travelled into the race OK but don't
think she found what more thought she would.Wasn't overly hard
on her either.
think she found what more thought she would.Wasn't overly hard
on her either.
Bubbling is an interesting entry in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf. She put up a much improved effort to win the Gr.2 Rockfel Stakes on soft ground and this full sister to Guineas runner-up Wichita may prove even better on quicker ground. Lake Victoria is also entered for the race and would be a much more obvious selection if declared to run.
I will be surprised if Lake V runs as she looks too big a girl to be going around this very tight (spud garden), track. Good spot with Bubbling jamesp Aidan always dangerous with these types of fillies in Breeders past and hopefully present. Wish I was going as San Diego is just so lovely.
really did hope that LV, wouldnt be going, i really am oldschool though, cheveley park, cotton wool, nell gwyn or fred darling then 1000,
Lake Victoria is miles clear on the ratings and she should win the Breeders' Cup race in a canter, so long as she's on form and handles the track and the prevailing firm ground (a few if's, needless to say)!
Lake Victoria will be clear fav next year after her win at Del Mar this evening.
Yes impossible, she did really well to win like that after the trouble on the first bend. The experience will have done her good.
6f, 7f and a mile they are all the same to her. She can also make the running and win, or come from behind and win too. A cert for this race next season if he turns up? The front runners eg Bedtime Story and Fairy Godmother have been eclipsed.
Lake Victoria (OR 118) is by no means a cert. Desert Flower (OR 117), who was still a bit green when hugely impressive in the Fillies' Mile, looks a seriously classy filly and holds an equally good or better chance (in my opinion). She travels well, has a smart turn of foot, stays well, goes on fast and yielding ground and has already shown that she handles the track.
Good as Lake Victoria has been in Europe this year, I don't think the Breeders Cup win did anything to enhance her reputation as 2yo turf races in the USA tend to be weaker than over here, for their grade. This could be due to 2YOs still being pointed at dirt (in preference to turf) because they are hoping to make it in the Triple Crown races or Ky Oaks next year. Whatever the reason I will lay at 4.0.
I know I said at the time that she did it well after meeting trouble on the first bend, but I saw last night at Aqueduct how easily a closer can win from an unpromising position on firm turf, if they have a class edge. The turf out their tends to be firmer than we ever have over here (it would probably be described as in Britain). And it is perfectly level with a sufficient cover of turf, which helps too.
^^^^
I meant to say (it would probably be described as Hard in Britain).
I meant to say (it would probably be described as Hard in Britain).
O'Brien has won the race 7 times, but 5 of those were with fillies that couldn't have been very strongly fancied after their 2yo season. During the same period he trained some fillies who showed close to Guineas class who didn't train on or were not ready in time. The only 2yo filly I can recall of his that I've rated as high as Lake Victoria was Minding. For me, it's all about whether LV is in the same form next May. If she is she's extremely likely to win.
Whilst Lake Victoria has impressive form which should take her into next Spring, there's a possibility she's been over travelled and over raced. Sooner or later it will take its toll.
An interesting development which may have bearing on next year's 1000 Guineas is the wild card entry for the Newmarket December Mares Sale on Dec.3rd of Vertical Blue, Graffard's Prix Marcel Boussac winner. I could foresee her being bought perhaps by AMO or Wathnan? as they're fond of buying success. In which case she could turn up at Newmarket for the Guineas which would make things interesting. She is the top rated 2yo in France, although why she was rated 1lb superior to Zarigana for a lucky nose beating, I'm not quite sure.
On lines through Exactly, Simmering and Bedtime Story she wouldn't be without a chance.
An interesting development which may have bearing on next year's 1000 Guineas is the wild card entry for the Newmarket December Mares Sale on Dec.3rd of Vertical Blue, Graffard's Prix Marcel Boussac winner. I could foresee her being bought perhaps by AMO or Wathnan? as they're fond of buying success. In which case she could turn up at Newmarket for the Guineas which would make things interesting. She is the top rated 2yo in France, although why she was rated 1lb superior to Zarigana for a lucky nose beating, I'm not quite sure.
On lines through Exactly, Simmering and Bedtime Story she wouldn't be without a chance.
there's a possibility she's been over travelled and over raced. Sooner or later it will take its toll
Yes that's certainly a possibility, and the main reason why I'd be wary of backing her ante post at short odds. On form I'd say she'd be something like a 2/7 shot. That's how unlikely I think it is for another filly to come along capable of a higher figure. Her chances of getting to the Guineas in the same form as this year, however, are probably odds against. I always think that with 2yo fillies Coolmore are happy to keep rolling the dice and see what happens. If they hold their form into their 3yo season then it's a bonus. If not, they might have another filly capable of improving anyway.
Yes that's certainly a possibility, and the main reason why I'd be wary of backing her ante post at short odds. On form I'd say she'd be something like a 2/7 shot. That's how unlikely I think it is for another filly to come along capable of a higher figure. Her chances of getting to the Guineas in the same form as this year, however, are probably odds against. I always think that with 2yo fillies Coolmore are happy to keep rolling the dice and see what happens. If they hold their form into their 3yo season then it's a bonus. If not, they might have another filly capable of improving anyway.
The other thing I wanted to mention was that Frankel as a sire does not get Guineas horses in the main. He's something of a failure in this regard, perhaps it will change with LV, but so far just one 3rd place in the 1000G and one win in the 2000G, possibly one of the worst renewals, and that's it.
Considering his record elsewhere, and the mares he gets, this is rather poor and unexpected I think.
Considering his record elsewhere, and the mares he gets, this is rather poor and unexpected I think.
Personally I don't see that as relevant. Sires of 1000 Guineas winners have been fairly random. Galileo did sire 3, I think, but it was more than 10 years before he got his first. 10 years for Frankel is too small a sample size, in my opinion. It would be more of a concern if he'd sired a number of top class 2yo fillies who were fancied for the Guineas but didn't make the grade, but that's something I'm not aware of.
ok, from the top of my head.. Ylang Ylang, Quadrilateral, Inspiral, Perfect News, Fair Eva, Queen Kindly, Majestic Glory, Wild Beauty, East [French], Raclette [French].
Remains to be seen what Exactly does.
The point is, Frankel's 3yo fillies don't seem to come to hand early enough as a rule.
Lake Victoria looks unbeatable but I question whether she's peaked too early in her career.
Remains to be seen what Exactly does.
The point is, Frankel's 3yo fillies don't seem to come to hand early enough as a rule.
Lake Victoria looks unbeatable but I question whether she's peaked too early in her career.
Nashwa would be another. Top 8-10f filly who never made it to the Guineas.
I have a question. Where the hell was Fairy Godmother after Ascot? I saw an interview with AOB in the summer when he said all was well with her and she was heading for the Cheveley Park! Not seen since in any of the 2 year old races.
Your guess is as good as anyone else's. I expect their staff are sworn to secrecy. Coolmore works in mysterious ways, wonders to behold.
Another Frankel filly who did manage a Guineas was Homeless Songs, but the Irish version is 3 weeks later. My impression is that trainers seem to struggle getting a Frankel ready in time for early May.
Another Frankel filly who did manage a Guineas was Homeless Songs, but the Irish version is 3 weeks later. My impression is that trainers seem to struggle getting a Frankel ready in time for early May.
Well, for me, Ylang Ylang and Quadrilateral ran close to their previous best marks in their Guineas, they just weren't good enough. Barring one, all the other fillies mentioned would've been punching above their weight in any Gp1s as 3yos. The only filly mentioned that was good enough to win a Guineas but didn't was Inspiral. He said she was slow to come to hand. Some of Gosden's 3yos have been amongst the fastest I've seen in recent years so it's amazing that he has never won a 2000 Guineas and only won one 1000 Guineas. That sole win was achieved more than 20 years ago by one of his lesser lights in a very weak year. Rainbow View was a filly of his who should at least have gone close to winning a Guineas on her 2yo form but wasn't ready either.
So on the evidence so far I'd say it's more a case of Gosden's training methods not being suited to early targets than anything connected with Frankel.
Lake Victoria looks unbeatable but I question whether she's peaked too early in her career
I agree with that. It's not a question of her not being able to improve further, as in my view she's already shown form good enough to have won an above average Guineas. It's just a question of whether she can be maintained at (or brought back to) this level next year.
So on the evidence so far I'd say it's more a case of Gosden's training methods not being suited to early targets than anything connected with Frankel.
Lake Victoria looks unbeatable but I question whether she's peaked too early in her career
I agree with that. It's not a question of her not being able to improve further, as in my view she's already shown form good enough to have won an above average Guineas. It's just a question of whether she can be maintained at (or brought back to) this level next year.
Homeless Songs won her trial in early April, so it seems unlikely that she wouldn't have been ready for May. I don't know why Weld didn't run her at Newmarket but he is known for being extremely patient with his runners. Possibly he wanted to give her an easier option at the Curragh or maybe was waiting for softer ground.
Gosden had a good 2YR old filly called Nannina she was winter jolly for the 1000G.
She was well btn but went on & won the Coronation Stks next run.
She was well btn but went on & won the Coronation Stks next run.
I don't understand all the hype about Lake Victoria and references to her being unbeatable (if in the same form next spring). Sure, she's shown very smart form and is clearly good enough to win an average Guineas, but surely the same applies to Desert Flower, who was hugely impressive in the Fillies' Mile and is officially rated just one pound behind Lake Victoria. I find it hard to rate one higher than the other, so why is there so little talk about the Godolphin filly? Do you think she's been overrated?
I think the Fillies Mile was the worst of the 3 gr. 1's, including the Cheveley Park and Marcel Boussac. The 3 O'Brien fillies she beat were there for gr. 1 black type it seems to me, and are not in the top rank over a mile. The 3rd Ballet Slippers was supplemented for the 10f Criterium de Saint Cloud but got pulled out at the last minute, which suggests she's a stayer in the making.
Desert Flower's form in the May Hill is nothing to write home about either with Miss Tonnerre not beaten far in 4th, but yes obviously she's the one that LV has to beat, although I'm interested in Verse of Love too. Can't wait to see her again actually.
The thing about Lake Victoria for me is that what she did in just a few weeks was unprecedented, showing an amazing versatility. Can't fail to be impressed.
Desert Flower's form in the May Hill is nothing to write home about either with Miss Tonnerre not beaten far in 4th, but yes obviously she's the one that LV has to beat, although I'm interested in Verse of Love too. Can't wait to see her again actually.
The thing about Lake Victoria for me is that what she did in just a few weeks was unprecedented, showing an amazing versatility. Can't fail to be impressed.
Do you think she's been overrated?
Well it's all about opinions/methods of compiling ratings. Personally I have Desert Flower just about good enough to win an average Guineas. I have Lake Victoria 4lbs ahead of her, better than average. Either filly could improve again, but in my view the top 2yo fillies rarely improve much at all from 2 to 3, they've just matured faster. It's generally the ones who weren't quite top class at 2 that may catch them up. Then there's the Appleby factor. He's had a few good 2yo fillies that did nothing later. This could all just have been bad luck, as he has won the 2000 Guineas, so we know he can hit the early targets if he has the ammunition.
Well it's all about opinions/methods of compiling ratings. Personally I have Desert Flower just about good enough to win an average Guineas. I have Lake Victoria 4lbs ahead of her, better than average. Either filly could improve again, but in my view the top 2yo fillies rarely improve much at all from 2 to 3, they've just matured faster. It's generally the ones who weren't quite top class at 2 that may catch them up. Then there's the Appleby factor. He's had a few good 2yo fillies that did nothing later. This could all just have been bad luck, as he has won the 2000 Guineas, so we know he can hit the early targets if he has the ammunition.
Probably false memory regarding Appleby and 2yo fillies. Don't think he's had many decent types like I'd imagined. Unless I've forgotten some Desert Flower is probably the best he's had.
Rather like the Frankel factor I mentioned. Saeed bin Suroor was always the Guineas man, really good record. Appleby needs to step up, especially considering what he has to work with now, but next year could be the turning point.
As for the others, Fairy Godmother remains the joker in the pack, until we find out more. All the interviews they do with O'Brien, yet nobody ever asks the question.
As for the others, Fairy Godmother remains the joker in the pack, until we find out more. All the interviews they do with O'Brien, yet nobody ever asks the question.
Agreed, Appleby has yet to hit the mark in the 1000 Guineas, but he's had very few top class two year old fillies to work with until now. He'd never won the Fillies' Mile until this season with Desert Flower, he's never won the Cheveley Park Stakes or the Moyglare Stud Stakes, and his two Prix Marcel Boussac winners have had mixed fortunes: Wuheida wasn't ready for the first part of her three year old season (later won a Grade 1 at the Breeders' Cup) and Wild Illusion was only 4th in a substandard Guineas before going on to win two Group 1's later in the season over 10f.
I'm not too bothered about the lack of strength in depth to the May Hill form: she was still quite raw and reportedly hard to manage that day, taking on Will Buick on the way to the start, but she still won comfortably. She was much calmer in the prelims at Newmarket and despite taking time to find her feet in the Dip, once she hit the rising ground she powered home to beat January (a filly that had progressed with every race up to the May Hill) by 4 lengths further than she'd beaten her at Doncaster and in a fast time. This was a huge step forward and with normal improvement from 2 to 3 you'd have to think that she'll be a genuine Group 1 performer next year. Pedigree suggests that a mile will be her optimum trip.
Lake Victoria ticks most of the same boxes and I find it hard to pick between these two unbeaten fillies.
I'm not too bothered about the lack of strength in depth to the May Hill form: she was still quite raw and reportedly hard to manage that day, taking on Will Buick on the way to the start, but she still won comfortably. She was much calmer in the prelims at Newmarket and despite taking time to find her feet in the Dip, once she hit the rising ground she powered home to beat January (a filly that had progressed with every race up to the May Hill) by 4 lengths further than she'd beaten her at Doncaster and in a fast time. This was a huge step forward and with normal improvement from 2 to 3 you'd have to think that she'll be a genuine Group 1 performer next year. Pedigree suggests that a mile will be her optimum trip.
Lake Victoria ticks most of the same boxes and I find it hard to pick between these two unbeaten fillies.
Does anyone know when the initial entries for both Guineas are made please? I'm unable to find it on the BHA site - typical. Thanks.
From memory, the Newmarket Guineas entries are normally published in early March, about two months before the race. The Irish Guineas entries are already out, and they provide a pointer to some of the likely entries for Newmarket.
aah ok thanks. Quite late, I thought it was earlier than that. I've seen the Irish entries.
An interesting development today at Tattersalls in that Vertical Blue was sold for 3.2 million to an American, who intends to keep the filly in training with Francis Graffard, which means he will have something of a dilemma, as he will want to aim his principal patron the Aga Khan's Zarigana at the French 1000 I would have thought, which may mean this filly comes to Newmarket. Graffard has a line through Cheveley Park 6th Rayevka and her formline with the Moyglare fillies puts her in with a chance.
Graffard, quoted in the RP: "She’s for a new owner so I will discuss [next year] with him but I don’t see why she couldn’t challenge for the Guineas and then I think she can stay the ten furlongs of the French Oaks,” he said. “Maybe he would like to send her to America to race also, so we have plenty of options.”
It's not clear whether 'Guineas' refers to Newmarket or the French equivalent, but I guess it's quite possible that either Vertical Blue or Zarigana could come over for our Guineas. If so, there could be a little bit of value from the betting angle, since French-trained fillies are often overpriced compared with runners from the big UK & Ireland stables.
It's not clear whether 'Guineas' refers to Newmarket or the French equivalent, but I guess it's quite possible that either Vertical Blue or Zarigana could come over for our Guineas. If so, there could be a little bit of value from the betting angle, since French-trained fillies are often overpriced compared with runners from the big UK & Ireland stables.
I'm reading that as the Newmarket Guineas as he's speaking in English and he referred to French Oaks. I expect she'll reappear in the Prix Imprudence next April, the usual trial race if coming over, as Zarigana is already earmarked for the Prix de la Grotte a few days later, the trial for the French.
This might have little bearing on next year's 1000 Guineas but an interesting line of form to be had with the Hanshin Juvenile Fillies [gr.1] at Kyoto Japan on Sunday, 1600m, their top juvenile fillies race, equivalent to our Fillies Mile, as one of the favourites is May Day Ready to be ridden by Frankie Dettori as she was at Del Mar when a 1.5 length second to Lake Victoria. It will be good to see how that form holds up here.
Brown Ratchet ridden by Christophe Lemaire likely to be the main danger, winner of the gr. 3 Artemis Stakes, a noted trial for this race, and one I like Run For Vow who beat colts in a gr. 2 earlier.
The usual 18 fillies go to post, form in the RP. A race I shall be watching at 06.40 Sunday morning.
Brown Ratchet ridden by Christophe Lemaire likely to be the main danger, winner of the gr. 3 Artemis Stakes, a noted trial for this race, and one I like Run For Vow who beat colts in a gr. 2 earlier.
The usual 18 fillies go to post, form in the RP. A race I shall be watching at 06.40 Sunday morning.
I often think this is the best 2yo fillies race on the planet over a mile.. won today by Arma Veloce a filly by Harbinger, who stays well and one for the Japanese Oaks next year and likely aimed at their Guineas too.
Dettori's May Day Ready was 13th, beaten about 9 lengths. Up there most of the way and had every chance but faded badly.
Brown Ratchet never showed and Run For Vow got hampered in the straight but didn't stay.
I really don't think Lake Victoria would have figured in that, to be honest.
Dettori's May Day Ready was 13th, beaten about 9 lengths. Up there most of the way and had every chance but faded badly.
Brown Ratchet never showed and Run For Vow got hampered in the straight but didn't stay.
I really don't think Lake Victoria would have figured in that, to be honest.
Of May Day Ready, Dettori said,...
“The race was good, I had a good position, but the filly had a long season. She prefers really fast ground—
it was a little bit loose, and the first time right-handed confused her a little bit. So, the combination of the
three things was why she ran no race today. And also, it’s the fifth run in four months so she’s tired, it was
a long way here,”
“The race was good, I had a good position, but the filly had a long season. She prefers really fast ground—
it was a little bit loose, and the first time right-handed confused her a little bit. So, the combination of the
three things was why she ran no race today. And also, it’s the fifth run in four months so she’s tired, it was
a long way here,”
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