Horse Antepost
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Back, by popular demand... the latest instalment of the 1000 Guineas antepost discussion thread...!
The author has taken his eye off the ball somewhat in recent seasons but retains an interest in trying to solve this perennial antepost puzzle...
All contributions are warmly welcomed, provided they are pertinent, prescient and polite!
First off, here's a summary of the contributions on the 'under construction' thread started a few days ago by cryoftruth....
cryoftruth 17 Jun 24 11:18
Hi James
Can you start your 2025 1000 Guineas thread when you get chance please?
And does anyone else like the look of Bedtime Story?
She is by Frankel out of Mecca’s Angel so could arguably be the best bred filly on the planet.
She won unexpectedly first time out in some style.
She is quite tall but as yet unfurnished and scope to end up quite good.
The current miserable odds for the 2025 1000 Guineas will become even more stingy if she wins the Chesham Stakes.
JayTrumpOldTomDubbl • June 17, 2024 11:25 AM BST
The Juddmonte filly by Kodiac trained by G Lyons ridden by CT Keane was quite impressive also. Probably see her again Curragh Derby weekend. Interesting. Could meet your Bedtime Story there.
liberator of the oppressed • June 17, 2024 12:30 PM BST
Was a monster this is the only one Jay make no mistake
cryoftruth • June 22, 2024 4:45 PM BST
Not wishing to say “I told you so”.
But I did rather.
Discussions about the 1000 Guineas now academic more or less.
Bedtime Story maybe ran 116 maybe more. Won easing down by 10 lengths in the same style his Dad won the Queen Anne all those years ago.
Plenty of scope to progress, Bedtime Story looks an utter monster.
Looking sure to get a mile, relaxed way of running, nimble enough for Newmarket, and probably unbeatable.
3/1 looks pretty skinny for the 1000 Guineas and it’s 11 months away. But she look likely to go odds on when she slaughters the next sacrificial lambs lined up against her.
An incredible pedigree by the Greatest - Frankel, out of a Nunthorpe winner.
Figgis • June 22, 2024 8:44 PM BST
My take on it from the time aspect is it was very good, in the Gp1 bracket, good enough to win some Guineas, but no more than that. Very unusual for a filly to run as fast as that over 7f at this stage of the season. It could possible be the best I've seen, at the moment I can't think of another one, but there aren't too many opportunities beforehand in the calendar.
In comparison with O'Briens best 2yo filly of last year, Opera Singer, I have Bedtime Story 1lb behind. Many would credit Bedtime Story as the better achievement as hers was achieved in June, whereas we had to wait until October for Opera Singer's best effort. That's fair enough, maybe Bedtime Story will be capable of even better as the season progresses. However, personally I've never subscribed to the theory that all 2yos progress at the same rate, so I'd rather wait until I actually see it.
It's not just about being good enough now, they need to be as good come Guineas day. We've seen this year with Opera Singer that things don't always go smoothly. Opera Singer had 7 months to get there, this filly has nearly 11 months to go and more racing to do. In my view, if today is as good as Bedtime Story gets she would go very close to winning an average Guineas. But she'll need to improve more to actually be as exceptional as she looked today.
Well done on the early call, cryoftruth. As you say, she will probably be racing against vastly inferior fillies in the near future. I think today's performance could possibly even carry her through to winning something like the Moyglare if nothing else decent appears. She's got some way to go though before she can be classed as something out of the ordinary Gp1 fillies.
.Marksman. • June 22, 2024 9:23 PM BST
I keep thinking of the sublime Herbie Hancock track: Tell me a bedtime story.
But I suppose it will only be the other old timers who remember it. Time to get the CD out again. (Fat Albert Rotunda)
A_T • June 22, 2024 10:18 PM BST
very impressive but have to remember the terms of the race means these were mostly middle-distance types and she's out of a sprinter. also frankel's good 2yos tend not to train on - his best progeny are not usually apparent till 3yo
The author has taken his eye off the ball somewhat in recent seasons but retains an interest in trying to solve this perennial antepost puzzle...
All contributions are warmly welcomed, provided they are pertinent, prescient and polite!
First off, here's a summary of the contributions on the 'under construction' thread started a few days ago by cryoftruth....
cryoftruth 17 Jun 24 11:18
Hi James
Can you start your 2025 1000 Guineas thread when you get chance please?
And does anyone else like the look of Bedtime Story?
She is by Frankel out of Mecca’s Angel so could arguably be the best bred filly on the planet.
She won unexpectedly first time out in some style.
She is quite tall but as yet unfurnished and scope to end up quite good.
The current miserable odds for the 2025 1000 Guineas will become even more stingy if she wins the Chesham Stakes.
JayTrumpOldTomDubbl • June 17, 2024 11:25 AM BST
The Juddmonte filly by Kodiac trained by G Lyons ridden by CT Keane was quite impressive also. Probably see her again Curragh Derby weekend. Interesting. Could meet your Bedtime Story there.
liberator of the oppressed • June 17, 2024 12:30 PM BST
Was a monster this is the only one Jay make no mistake
cryoftruth • June 22, 2024 4:45 PM BST
Not wishing to say “I told you so”.
But I did rather.
Discussions about the 1000 Guineas now academic more or less.
Bedtime Story maybe ran 116 maybe more. Won easing down by 10 lengths in the same style his Dad won the Queen Anne all those years ago.
Plenty of scope to progress, Bedtime Story looks an utter monster.
Looking sure to get a mile, relaxed way of running, nimble enough for Newmarket, and probably unbeatable.
3/1 looks pretty skinny for the 1000 Guineas and it’s 11 months away. But she look likely to go odds on when she slaughters the next sacrificial lambs lined up against her.
An incredible pedigree by the Greatest - Frankel, out of a Nunthorpe winner.
Figgis • June 22, 2024 8:44 PM BST
My take on it from the time aspect is it was very good, in the Gp1 bracket, good enough to win some Guineas, but no more than that. Very unusual for a filly to run as fast as that over 7f at this stage of the season. It could possible be the best I've seen, at the moment I can't think of another one, but there aren't too many opportunities beforehand in the calendar.
In comparison with O'Briens best 2yo filly of last year, Opera Singer, I have Bedtime Story 1lb behind. Many would credit Bedtime Story as the better achievement as hers was achieved in June, whereas we had to wait until October for Opera Singer's best effort. That's fair enough, maybe Bedtime Story will be capable of even better as the season progresses. However, personally I've never subscribed to the theory that all 2yos progress at the same rate, so I'd rather wait until I actually see it.
It's not just about being good enough now, they need to be as good come Guineas day. We've seen this year with Opera Singer that things don't always go smoothly. Opera Singer had 7 months to get there, this filly has nearly 11 months to go and more racing to do. In my view, if today is as good as Bedtime Story gets she would go very close to winning an average Guineas. But she'll need to improve more to actually be as exceptional as she looked today.
Well done on the early call, cryoftruth. As you say, she will probably be racing against vastly inferior fillies in the near future. I think today's performance could possibly even carry her through to winning something like the Moyglare if nothing else decent appears. She's got some way to go though before she can be classed as something out of the ordinary Gp1 fillies.
.Marksman. • June 22, 2024 9:23 PM BST
I keep thinking of the sublime Herbie Hancock track: Tell me a bedtime story.
But I suppose it will only be the other old timers who remember it. Time to get the CD out again. (Fat Albert Rotunda)
A_T • June 22, 2024 10:18 PM BST
very impressive but have to remember the terms of the race means these were mostly middle-distance types and she's out of a sprinter. also frankel's good 2yos tend not to train on - his best progeny are not usually apparent till 3yo
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Well, what can I add, except to congratulate cryoftruth on yet another humdinger of an early pick!
Bedtime Story made a decent debut earlier this month when beating her better fancied stablemate Giselle (by Frankel out of Grade 1 winner Newspaperofrecord) in a Leopardstown maiden, but her performance in the Chesham Stakes on Saturday looked simply sensational. This was undoubtedly the most impressive winner of the Chesham Stakes I have ever seen, and almost certainly the highest rated. That's quite something, given that the Chesham has in the past been won by the likes of Churchill (multiple Group 1 winner, dual 2000 Guineas winner), Maybe (Moyglare winner, sent off 13/8 favourite for the 1000 Guineas) and champion juvenile Pinatubo... not forgetting the brilliant Cape Verdi and Derby winner Masar, who were both beaten in the Chesham... Bedtime Story's winning time was only fractionally (0.16s) slower than Haatem's winning time in the Jersey Stakes on the same card. That's a remarkable performance by a juvenile filly at this stage of the season. The turn of foot she showed in the final two furlongs (admittedly against stoutly bred and possibly handicapper-class opposition) looked electrifying. On the negative side, the form of the third, fourth, fifth and sixth going into the race was decidedly moderate (they achieved RPR ratings in the low to mid 70's in all their previous starts). I can't get involved in the Guineas market at around 3/1, but I'm certainly not going to oppose her either. PS: I'll be keeping a close eye on Giselle, who was sent off at odds-on to beat Bedtime Story first time out and ran green. Giselle is definitely one for the proverbial notebook! |
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It would be interesting to see whether AOB chooses Bedtime Story or Fairy Godmother for The Moyglare; the pivotal race could be the Fillies Mile at Newmarket.
These two fillies could be a repeat of Minding vs Ballydoyle. |
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There's a GP2 (Fillies 6F) @ Curragh next week where O'Brien has 12 entered.
Giselle holds an entry in this.Would think Bedtime Story & Fairy Godmother won't show.He's won the last 2 runnings with Matrika & Statuette. |
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Many thanks Jamesp.
We would have missed your annual thread and await your thoughts! |
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I think the bookies are taking the Micky a bit on the odds.
Bedtime was only 14/1 before the Chesham. A scandalous top price you could get boosted to 15/1 with Hills. And though 14/1 looks okay now, 3/1 is ludicrous, especially given AOB’s recent propensity to not get his horses fit in time for the early classics. |
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her breeding does not scream epsom so you'd think she'd be ready for newmarket
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I like both fillies. However, I'd row-in with Fairy Godmother - the lesser visually impressive winner than Bedtime Story. I just thought the Albany had more depth than the Chesham Stakes; the former is rated superior too.
'billy' was the longest on Fairy Godmother post her Albany win (5/1). I think they might have info about Bedtime Story if only 14/1 antepost then; 'billy' excluded me from epic-boost promotion otherwise 2x 14/1 ie 28/1 would still be a tremendous sp. I think they'd learnt from my exploits on their epic boost with City Of Troy (2000G and Derby). |
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Here we go again!!!,As regards winning a Classic, Royal Ascot 2 year old winners have only produced 4 English Classic winners the following Year since 1971!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!. There have been some lately, if you knock out the Irish Winners you end up with only ONE, Mark Johnson's Attraction. Punters seem to know very little on the subject of racing. Poor Matt Chapman normally a good judge put up Vauban for the Champion Hurdle even though the Triumph since 1967 has produced only TWO winners the following year of the Champion Hurdle!!!!!!.
OK so it's stats and stats can be broken, but it's a handy place to start!!.Even horse at Royal Ascot start at second Fav, even though one of their stats says that their chance relates to being only a 2 1/2% chance of winning, i.e. only one horse successful in the last 40 years. Study is the only way to go if you are to be successful, a lot of time and effort. |
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agree its only june and loads more later maturing types yet to see a racecourse and many from the aob yard in that bracket ,hype going overboard !
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It's true that you have to go back 20 years to find the last winner of the 1000 Guineas that was successful at the previous year's Royal Ascot meeting. But running at Royal Ascot as a juvenile is certainly no barrier to success in the 1000 Guineas: Mawj (2023), Cachet (2022) and Mother Earth (2021) were all beaten at Royal Ascot at two but progressed sufficiently to win the Guineas the following year...
The problem, as always, is trying to work out whether superiority in the early season juvenile pattern races is based on precocity (small speedy early types with limited scope for physical development, unlikely to get a mile at three) or early physical development (mature physical specimens who already look like three-year-olds and have a big advantage at this time of year over the later developing unfurnished types). Ideally, of course, one should be looking for talented fillies whose physical appearance and pedigree suggest they have scope for further development and improvement. Fairy Godmother (by Night Of Thunder out of Scintilating) looks an early maturing type. The dam Scintilating was a debut winner at two who failed to progress and is related to early types who also peaked at two (Able Speed, Deal Breaker). Fairy Godmother is a half-sister to Sketch, an impressive debut winner last year at two who failed to progress and hasn't been seen at three. Her win in the Albany Stakes was very impressive and she looks sure to win more top races this season. Bedtime Story (by Frankel out of Mecca's Angel) is sure to get a mile and seems to have plenty of scope for further improvement. The dam Mecca's Angel peaked at age four/five, but her two other offspring haven't progressed: Hudson River (by Galileo) ran twice at two and was never seen again, and Content (by Galileo) progressed well at two (ran very well at the Breeders' Cup last season) but hasn't performed well in her two starts so far this season. A hugely impressive performance in the Chesham Stakes raises as many questions as it answers... not least, what did she beat?? |
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If we're into late Autumn and Bedtime Story remaining unbeaten and winning impressively each time she'd be no more than 6/4 for Newmarket next May similar to City Of Troy for the 2000G last season
$64k question is, what has she beaten? I think it's her pedigree and the association of AOB that have earned her this puny price 11 months away from the real event. |
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id say the visual performance at ascot might hav had summit to do wiv it~!^
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This forum is so interesting and full of decent opinion.
Impossible, I would say you are at risk of making out that being by Frankel out of Mecca’s Angel (ie by the greatest ever horse out of a champion sprinter) is a disadvantage! I wish I had had a proper bet of Bedtime before she ran at Ascot. But honestly, what more could she have done? |
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In terms of what Bedtime beat
I suppose a fair answer would be “Everything else in the race by over 2 stones” |
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Pipedreamer
In terms of stats. How many 2yos winning at Royal Ascot who subsequently ran is a classic had won at Ascot easing down by nearly 10 lengths? |
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I think the last 2 yo who won in such style at Royal Ascot might have been the Ron Sheather horse Chief Singer. And he was awesome and would have won the Guineas had he not bumped into El Gran Senor! And he won by half the distance Bedtime Story did at Ascot.
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Three Valleys,an Abdullah horse won the Coventry by a wide margin.
He was made Fav' for the Guineas I think.Don't think he won much @3yrs. |
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If your the best at two, you get found out by later maturing types. This is because of the policy back in the eighties of packing horses off to stud too early, and producing weaker later maturing types. Before the Eighties horses were kept in training longer. Brigadier Gerard won 17 out of 18 races from two to 5 years old.
I remember Arc winning filly Allez France that won 15 races in her career. So many horses have a limited number of races, and therefore we have smallish fields in Classics et al. As for Bedtime Story look at the time of the last furlong, i don't have a stopwatch but there was at LEAST 2 seconds to the second horse. Ok the horse may turn out ok, it's Irish trained so that's a plus. It's a long time to next years Classics, a lot can happen. |
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Here's the Timeform Ratings Update following Royal Ascot. I think it's a reasonable and balanced analysis:
"Bedtime Story (116p from 89p) looked something special when stretching nine and a half lengths clear under a hands-and-heels ride in the Chesham Stakes, earning a higher Timeform rating than Opera Singer (114p) was awarded for her Prix Marcel Boussac success that saw her crowned last season's leading two-year-old filly. It remains to be seen what she actually beat on the day, but Bedtime Story was in a different parish to her rivals, and the outstanding visual impression she created was backed up by an excellent timefigure. There are some notable names on the roll of honour, including Churchill and Pinatubo, but Bedtime Story emerges from the Chesham Stakes as Timeform's highest-rated winner this century. For context, September, an impressive winner in 2017, was rated 113p ahead of her next start, while Pinatubo, who went on to prove himself an outstanding juvenile, had a pre-race rating of 112p on his next start. Bedtime Story is now Timeform's highest-rated two-year-old and her trainer Aidan O’Brien is also responsible for the second highest in Fairy Godmother (112p from 98p), who produced a remarkable performance to win the Albany Stakes 24 hours earlier. The official margin of victory was three-quarters of a length, but she had much, much more in hand, overcoming substantial trouble in-running to get up on the line in snug fashion, while the second and third, Simmering and Heavens Gate, deserve viewing positively as well, all three among the best types in a generally good field on looks. Fairy Godmother was held up and had to come around rivals to get a run, but she came storming through near the stand rail in the manner of a very exciting prospect. She looks a more mature type than Bedtime Story, physically stronger at this stage of her career, and O’Brien will likely want to keep them apart for the remainder of the year, though the Moyglare Stud Stakes looks the obvious race for both." |
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From a handicapping perspective, it depends on how many pounds per length you allow for two-year-olds over 7f at this time of year... If you allow 3lbs per length, then Bedtime Story had at least two stones in hand of the opposition and can be rated 110+ (and within a few pounds of an average Guineas-winning rating). Timeform are even more impressed, giving her a rating of 116p, which is already good enough to win an average Guineas. I'm inclined to award a more modest 2.5lbs per length, and using some of the beaten horses as a guide, Bedtime Story still has a few pounds to find on ratings, based on the very slender form evidence so far. The beaten horses may turn out to be no better than Class 3 handicappers. We simply have no way of knowing at this stage whether she beat anything remotely close to pattern class.
It's all rather academic at this stage, as it's hard to believe that anyone would be tempted to take 3/1 for the Guineas. Bedtime Story is clearly a very exciting prospect indeed, but we need firmer evidence... We need to see her beat fillies with solid Group race form later in the season. |
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Pipedreamer.
Genuine question. What is the correlation between retiring horses to stud early and a later maturing off-spring |
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earning a higher Timeform rating than Opera Singer (114p) was awarded for her Prix Marcel Boussac success that saw her crowned last season's leading two-year-old filly
The higher rating of Bedtime Story from Timeform assumes that she will make improvement in line with the wfa scale between now and October. Maybe she will (personally I think it unlikely) but this ignores the fact that many of the fastest 2yos at this stage of the season have matured earlier than average and make no further progress by the end of the season. I don't believe there is ever a case for using under 3lbs a length for 7f. Looking back at the last 10 Guineas I have Bedtime Story's winning figure equal to or better than 6 of the last 10 Guineas winning figures. On the Chesham performance she'd have won this year's Guineas comfortably. It's true that Royal Ascot winning 2yos don't have as good a record as some may expect, but considering how early in the calendar it comes and the fact that most of the 2yo races are no further than 6f it shouldn't be too surprising. So in her favour, she is certain to stay compared with many past 2yo winners at Ascot. As for the rest of her generation surpassing her, she's already at a level where very few will overtake her. She's not reached the standard of outstanding winners, such as Minding or Love, so she's certainly vulnerable if we get another of those types appearing, but I don't see her being swamped by a bunch of fillies improving past her. However, I still see her as a poor bet at the price simply because she has to at least remain at this level until next May. She has to avoid injuries and setbacks. Even without major injury, many 2yos don't just stand still and get overtaken by their peers their ability actually deteriorates between 2 and 3. |
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If we were in April 2025 with the same info we have now then the O'Brien pair would be short prices but in July 2024, I would be happy to lay anything below 6 as so much can go wrong-and 5 more better fillies could emerge.
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I think 3/1 is a ludicrously short price for Bedtime Story, but….
She won her Royal ascot race by nearly 10 lengths in a fast time, and yet we are being told that she has less chance of winning the 1000 Guineas because she is too fast. If we are not careful we will start to argue that the slower your are as a 2yo, the better chance you will have of winning a classic. I go back a long way. But I do not recall Mill Reef or the Brigadier being especially slow 2yos. Both were blindingly quick and yet won Derbys King Georges Arcs and Guineas. Many top 2yos go on to win the Guineas, and I would say that there is a correlation between the merit of 2yos and 3yos. Just because Frankel was the fastest 2yo by a mile seemed not to stop him going on to being the greatest race horse ever. Mind you by the logic of some, he would clearly have won the Queen Anne by 30 lengths instead of 11 lengths if on,y he had been a bit slower when he was 2! |
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I do take the stuff about early maturing 2yos that allow late maturing types catch up but..
Bedtime Story is leggy with tons of scope to grow into her frame and strengthen. The other thing is that they had never actually let Bedtime Story down at home. O’Brien does not train his 2yos to be top 2yos. He trains them to win at 3. Banking on her being quite unable to improve on her win at Ascot is dangerous. |
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not sure about that - aidan's had a number of champion 2yos who've done nothing at 3
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obviously she can win the gns and may well do its just the price , as said by others much can go wrong in 11 months .
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If you'd Bedtime story at much bigger odds than 3/1 eg 16/1 or bigger you're already onto a winner, if hedging here; City of Troy was 16/1 and 25/1 for the 2000G and Epsom in July 2023 after hosing up; astute backers have already won a battle, not the war yet.
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I am of the view that anyone backing Bedtime Story prior to Ascot at the top price 14/1 was foolish. She should have been 25/1 really.
I had a tenner at 14s because watching her win at Ascot having not backed her would have been too sore. But it wasn’t sensible. If she’d been 25s I would have had £25 or more. Her next run is keenly awaited obviously. She reminds me of her dam in terms of looks, and her sire, the way she slaughters the opposition. |
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Regards Bedtime Story 'billie' knew something immediately post Fairy Godmother win from a near impossible position; they stood her against the direction of all other bookies eg 5/1 (others 7/2). City Of Troy was 16/1 and 25/1 for Newmarket and Epsom respectively post his 1st win; Moore had great difficulty pulling up.
Did Bedtime Story take a long time to pull up? I understand she powered to the line extending her superiority as she went. |
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just wrote an epistle about Bedtime Story. Site jumped to somewhere else, all lost, aint bothering anymore or wasting more time writing it again.
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How unfortunate and annoying 'pipedreamer'? I feel for you after all the effort and time. Hope you back a few winners at Newmarket.
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Very taking debut by the Aga Khan owned Zarigana at Chantilly yesterday.
By Siyouni out of a daughter of Frankel and Zarkava so bred in the purple. Will probably stay in France however good she turns out to be, |
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Well spotted! I missed that race at Chantilly, but watched a replay. Zarigana looked green and far from the finished article, but was in different league from her opponents. The winning time was quite slow. The dam was a 12f filly, so I imagine she'll be a 10f+ filly prospect for next year, not necessarily a miler. But she looks smart, all the same.
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Bedtime Story's half-sister Content, who had run well in the Gr.1 Pretty Polly Stakes over 10f, put up an even better performance stepped up to 12f in today's Gr.1 Irish Oaks, running on well for second after being a bit short of room in the straight. This provides encouragement that Bedtime Story will train on next season and also suggests that she may stay middle distances in time. Her next run is eagerly anticipated: she's entered for the Gr.3 Silver Flash Stakes next Thursday. The Chesham form received a boost when Brian (third behind her at Ascot) scooted up at Newbury recently, and the Ascot fifth won well next time at Kempton; on the negative side, the Ascot fourth disappointed in a novices event at Haydock next time.
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Ger Lyons Kodiac filly did ok to win today with some 15/8 available. Seemed a very fast pace and this Kodiac filly looks likely to stay further. Surprised that they took on colts.
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Yes, Ger Lyons' filly Babouche looks a nice prospect and is reportedly likely to stick to 6f for the time being. She's a full sister to last season's very useful 7-8f winner Zarinsk.
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Bedtime Story has been declared to run in tomorrow's Gr.3 Silver Flash Stakes and it will be a major upset if she fails to win comfortably. She's long odds-on, needless to say, and the second favourite is also trained by AOB...
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Thanks for the update 'jamesp'. I'm expecting a walk-in-the-park for Bedtime Story at Leopardstown tomorrow.
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