S J Palace Stks...

I think the same result as the 2000G if both Notable Speech and Rosallion turn up; Henry Longfellow could figure significantly if going is bottomless. If so, Rosallion will be an absentee.

Watched the Guineas back a few times & now think that Rosallion has
got a very good chance of over turning the form with Notable Speech.
He was going as good as anything late on,likewise the wnr,who had
already had 3 runs since the new year.Race fitness may well have
cost Rosallion,this time he'll be meeting Notable Speech after 2 runs.
The rain's stayed away so the ground won't be an excuse if he is btn again.
Thought that was a very good performance in Ireland.Drawn (1),hopefully Levey
can get him well positioned early on.With a clear run should at least make
the frame.He's my idea of the wnr tbh.
4/1 & slightly bigger on here.
   GL ALL

Backed Rosallion in the Guineas, and while he ran another very good race to win at the Curragh I still think it's likely we've seen the best of him for now. I have him 3lbs down from the Guineas to the Curragh and wouldn't be surprised if he regresses further here. The one I think may be a bigger danger to the fav is Henry Longfellow. After him never really being put in the race at Longchamp, I was pleased to see Fallen Angel show her Guineas running to be false when bouncing back in the Irish version. As, apart from anything else, I had her and HF hitting big figures on the same Curragh card last year. My high time ratings for them both were linked.

That said, I think O'Brien (if we are to believe his riding instructions) missed a golden opportunity to win an easy Gp1 in France, as it should be much more difficult here. After the Guineas I said I thought Notable Speech put up the best performance I'd seen in the race for 10+ years and nothing that has happened since has altered that view. I believe any horse can be beat if badly positioned in a falsely run race, but other than that I wouldn't expect him to be beaten here and will be backing him.

I think Notable Speech will confirm superiority with Rosallion; Rosallion did not impress me in Ireland - his tactical speed could let him down here. I also think Henry Longfellow did not give his true running in France, and I'd be concerned if the ground was softer.

I hope Notable Speech can win convincingly to stamp his status as the top miler in his generation at least.

Tactical speed? He aint exactly slow.

It rained heavily before the 2023 National Stakes won by HL. CoT was withdrawn. Lads on here are probably right about HL probably liking a little cut in the ground. I am gonna follow Figgis in as I backed Hannon's in the Curragh and felt very lucky to collect. He also had a very hard race. Good luck all.

Rosallion and Notable Speech both race from off the pace; in Ireland Rosallion encountered traffic issue. However, at Newmarket Notable Speech quickened past and outstayed Rosallion comfortably.

I do not know how significant the draw at Ascot is . But, I think the early pacers would be Unquestionable (3), Metropolitan (2) and Darlinghurst (4) with Henry Longfellow (7) sitting just behind these; Notable Speech (5) tracking these with Rosallion (1) next to the rail.

Let's hope a clean race and no excuse tomorrow.

Have another look at that Curragh race imp.

notable speech no doubt  impressive in the gns but he has been on the go since january ,it might not make a difference but one or 32 may be fresher here , he may have also been on a better strip of ground in the gns i watched a few re runs and they seemed to be kicking up more divots than where he was in the final 2f ,he may still be too good here but  i prefer a few at bigger prices and almaqam impressed me in the heron stakes last time won well and while he needs to find a good bit could suprise a few here and is in the could be anything bracket .
we also have no idea how the french form compares and darlinghurst and metrpolitan have good looking form in the book and are big prices ,of the 2 i slightly prefer metroplitan who was a decnt winner of the french gns and is progressing has won on good ground and can be backed at a massive 50s  alaqam and metropolitan  will do for me ew at big prices  .

Fancy The same result as Newmarket 1,2.
Backed Notable Speech at 2.94 & the rev forecast 6&7.

b356 doing a superboost 9/4 notable speech for those interested no idea how much they will stand

metropolitan placed at 40/1 thatll do !

Well done penzance. The only time I backed Rosallion this season he lost . No excuse for Notable Speech. Had a nice break since the Guineas so should have been primed for this. Even if there were reasons why the Guineas form might be turned around he looked absolutely hopeless today.

2nd and 3rd for me but backed them for win. aidan almost did a bit of a city or troy there with henry longfellow

the favourite probably joins the long list of guineas winners never to win another race

great result for the hannons, pleased they won i really was willing him to go past the coolmore horse. i  backed the fav, but cant believe that this winner is   near canford cliffs class , !great race with 3 gns winners

the favourite probably joins the long list of guineas winners never to win another race

Looking at how he ran today you could well be right. A lot of those other Guineas winners that disappointed later were consolidating what they'd achieved as 2yos. It has been said the Guineas can often be viewed as the last 2yo race, and that was proved to be the case for some of the winners. Notable Speech can't be put in that bracket because he didn't run as a 2yo, and what he'd won earlier this year, as impressive as he looked, wasn't achieving that much.

Regardless of whether he was as good as I thought, and accepting there was a case for Rosallion getting the better of him this time, NS was clearly well below his best with no obvious excuse for running as badly as that. The only reason I can think of is the large leap going from winning Mickey Mouse all weather affairs to the very hot race that was this year's Guineas has set him back physically.

All credit to Rosallion though, who proved me wrong to be concerned about him regressing and I have him up 1lb to a career peak. He might not yet be amongst the best 3yo milers I've seen but he's proved to be one of the toughest. The only consolation I can take from NS running so poorly is that even without him in the race I would've backed Henry Longfellow, who ran right up to my expectations. Shame he wasn't given the chance in the French Guineas

the gns result bit of a fluke id say now, the way  the horse travelled  and won at hq , i thought he was the real deal

7/1 for the Sussex Stakes? I'd be tempted if he's sound and on good ground.

the gns result bit of a fluke id say now

A fluke to the tune of 7 1/2 lengths?

I'll take your bet impossible.

7/1 for the Sussex Stakes? I'd be tempted if he's sound and on good ground.

Well, it's not impossible. We've had above average Guineas winners like Zafonic, who went kaput afterwards and were retired. We've also had an above average winner in George Washington who went backwards then regained form at the end of the season. The only one I can recall that skipped the Irish Guineas then ran as badly as Notable Speech in the SJP was Mark Of Esteem. For me, he was just an ok Guineas winner, very slightly below average, but then bounced back better than ever in the Celebration Mile and went on to win the QE2.

He was similarly inexperienced before winning the Guineas, having not raced at 3 and only winning a maiden on his second of two starts as a 2yo. The difference was he had a noticeably hard race in the Guineas, whereas Notable Speech appeared to win more smoothly. Although any big effort such as that can take a lot out of a horse even if it isn't always obvious at the time.

Makfi was well btn in this.

there werea few alarm bells for notable speech prior to the race yesterday ,notably b356 offering 9/4 as a boost they did similar with city of troy in the gns and we know how that ended . also he had been on the go since january and may have had a harder race than it seemed in the gns .

Makfi was well btn in this

Yes, I'd completely forgotten he ran in this before returning to form to beat Goldikova and Paco Boy.

Notable Speech could be more likely to drop down to 7f; he ran out of puff in the stiff Ascot mile. Haatem vs Notable Speech over 7f in the Prix de la Floret on Arc day.

Best winner of the Guineas in the last 10 years as well. Funny old game this.

Cracking race tomorrow. Charyn one of the fastest older milers I've rated in the last few years and Henry Longfellow my original long term Guineas fancy until switching to Rosallion. Henry was very good in the SJP but, for me, hadn't improved from 2 to 3, then well below par last time. I backed Charyn last time where he ran another top class figure, but I have him down 3lbs, and despite him being well rested between his last two races I wonder if he's going to start feeling the effects. Regardless of that, having kept faith in Notable Speech at Goodwood I am backing him again.

best race of the season by far

Ground soft?
If so you would expect Charyn to run his race as he goes on it.
Bit of a ? mark on it with the Godolphin horse.Hopefully a good
race in the offing.Only a watching brief for me.
  GL

i keep going about this, i dont really follow the french races, but has obrien won any G1 in uk, ire or france this season  with 3 year olds or above under 10 fur .

Bit of a ? mark on it with the Godolphin horse.

Yes I suppose there has to be until he's raced on it. We will also have to see if the French description of soft is an overestimation, as often is the case. The going may turn out to be an excuse for the horse, but no excuse for my bet as I know the possibilities. I think even allowing for him being an unknown on the ground his price still represents value. Years ago after refusing some bets because of the ground only to see many of them win I decided I would rather take the risk and lose rather than watch them win unbacked. Extreme going being an exception of course.

has obrien won any G1 in uk, ire or france this season  with 3 year olds or above under 10 fur

No, but, to be fair, the performance Henry Longfellow put up in the SJP would've been good enough to win in many a year, in my view.

Any going update at Longchamp

Soft ground but nothing extreme.

Thank you

Well done anyone who backed the winner . It wasn't like Tribalist got an easy lead in front, he had the main fancies hard at work from some way out. This obviously indicates the others weren't at their best today for various reasons, but it still looks quite a decent performance backed up by the clock. Either he's much improved having his fourth start of the year at the age of 5, or it was an Audience Lockinge type performance where he ran the race of his life kicking on from the front.

Charyn clearly wasn't at his best today despite grabbing second. It looks like Henry Longfellow has gone backwards from Ascot. He was proven on soft ground before, the market move was mainly due to Pricewise and there didn't appear much yard confidence behind him. As for my bet, Notable Speech, possibly it was just the soft ground as he was never really going and there were doubts before the race about him acting on it, but we won't know until he runs again.

without blowing my trumpet I put the winner and Ramadan who finished last up on the moulin thread on the horse racing forum ,but I credit a bit to figgis as something he said on this thread made me sway towards the Fabre horse . not after timing its on the thread ! thanks figga!

the winner was a multi group races winner and had btn a usefully one in factor cheval last season and had form on most types of ground , letting a group 1 winner dictate wasn't a great idea .

Very well done, Foyles

thanks brandy a lot of luck and guesswork needed in this game as we know !

whaw youve has some success this year in group1 , espexially in france

thanks Ellis and good luck.

Fabre winning this for a record 8th time, its last run over 6f a prep  in which he finished 9th  then a good rest had him spot on for today I'd imagine , prob a well thought out plan,

Well done Foyles, not the first time you've hooked a big price upset.

thanks figgis and good luck.

Have to say I disagree with the conclusion of the RP analysis of the Moulin. I agree that Charyn is obviously a better horse than the winner. Also that I'd favour him on another day, as the suspicion is Tribalist won't perform as well as that next time. However, I don't agree that Charyn was beaten yesterday due to a poor ride. The Post points to the fact that Tribalist finished slowest, but that was pretty much a given considering he'd done the most early. And that Charyn finished fastest over the final 600m and 400. Well, the 3yo, Ombudsman, finished even faster over an extra 2f, admittedly off slower early fractions, but it shows that those fast fractions taken in isolation prove nothing.

This wasn't like the ride given to Nashwa in last year's Nassau, held up in rear on a tight reign while those ahead were allowed to dawdle in front. Early on De Sousa had Charyn going at a pace comfortable for the horse, understandably without wanting to push him to do more than that. He wasn't exactly lobbing along behind, and was being stretched from some way out. Undoubtedly the sectional disciples will dismiss this as subjective opinion compared with the 'facts' of the timings. That's all very well, but when those facts don't take into account other facts it can lead to false conclusions. Facts such as that on rain softened ground the turf isn't riding the same speed at all parts of the track.

It's often the case on many tracks that when the temperature is warm and the sun is beating down on rain softened ground the straight part of the course rides much faster than elsewhere. It was no coincidence that the shortest race was run so fast in comparison with the others, allowing for the class of race. For me, both on visuals and times, the straight was the fastest part of the track yesterday. Tribalist's early splits may look pedestrian compared with Charyn's finishing flourish, but Tribalist was doing most of his running on the softer part of the track. If I'd backed Charyn yesterday I would have no problem with the ride he was given. Just my opinion

Similarly I don't see what was supposed to be so great about the winning ride.

"Mickael Barzalona couldn't do anything else and he let him go" The quote from Fabre.

That's how I saw it. While some of the others had won on soft ground, Tribalist had done all his winning on soft, and even ground described as heavy and very soft. He was running with a real zest yesterday on the softest part of the course. Looking back to the others he was clearly racing with more enthusiasm and comfort in the conditions than they were. Best horse on the day won, nothing to do with jockeyship.

It was a "frustrating watch", according to Mr Varian.