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05 Jun 24 13:31
Date Joined: 26 Feb 04
| Topic/replies: 15,610 | Blogger: penzance's blog
Looking forward to this race with the Guineas 1ST & 2ND locking horns again.
Just a note on the 3RD,Haatem, he's been bought by Watnan Racing & might
run in the Jersey what I've read if the above 2 horses both run in this so be
carefull if backing him A/Post.
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Report impossible123 June 5, 2024 6:30 PM BST
I think the same result as the 2000G if both Notable Speech and Rosallion turn up; Henry Longfellow could figure significantly if going is bottomless. If so, Rosallion will be an absentee.
Report penzance June 17, 2024 2:51 PM BST
Watched the Guineas back a few times & now think that Rosallion has
got a very good chance of over turning the form with Notable Speech.
He was going as good as anything late on,likewise the wnr,who had
already had 3 runs since the new year.Race fitness may well have
cost Rosallion,this time he'll be meeting Notable Speech after 2 runs.
The rain's stayed away so the ground won't be an excuse if he is btn again.
Thought that was a very good performance in Ireland.Drawn (1),hopefully Levey
can get him well positioned early on.With a clear run should at least make
the frame.He's my idea of the wnr tbh.
4/1 & slightly bigger on here.
Report Figgis June 17, 2024 3:25 PM BST
Backed Rosallion in the Guineas, and while he ran another very good race to win at the Curragh I still think it's likely we've seen the best of him for now. I have him 3lbs down from the Guineas to the Curragh and wouldn't be surprised if he regresses further here. The one I think may be a bigger danger to the fav is Henry Longfellow. After him never really being put in the race at Longchamp, I was pleased to see Fallen Angel show her Guineas running to be false when bouncing back in the Irish version. As, apart from anything else, I had her and HF hitting big figures on the same Curragh card last year. My high time ratings for them both were linked.

That said, I think O'Brien (if we are to believe his riding instructions) missed a golden opportunity to win an easy Gp1 in France, as it should be much more difficult here. After the Guineas I said I thought Notable Speech put up the best performance I'd seen in the race for 10+ years and nothing that has happened since has altered that view. I believe any horse can be beat if badly positioned in a falsely run race, but other than that I wouldn't expect him to be beaten here and will be backing him.
Report impossible123 June 17, 2024 6:04 PM BST
I think Notable Speech will confirm superiority with Rosallion; Rosallion did not impress me in Ireland - his tactical speed could let him down here. I also think Henry Longfellow did not give his true running in France, and I'd be concerned if the ground was softer.

I hope Notable Speech can win convincingly to stamp his status as the top miler in his generation at least.
Report penzance June 17, 2024 7:06 PM BST
Tactical speed? He aint exactly slow.
Report JayTrumpOldTomDubbl June 17, 2024 7:33 PM BST
It rained heavily before the 2023 National Stakes won by HL. CoT was withdrawn. Lads on here are probably right about HL probably liking a little cut in the ground. I am gonna follow Figgis in as I backed Hannon's in the Curragh and felt very lucky to collect. He also had a very hard race. Good luck all.
Report impossible123 June 17, 2024 8:05 PM BST
Rosallion and Notable Speech both race from off the pace; in Ireland Rosallion encountered traffic issue. However, at Newmarket Notable Speech quickened past and outstayed Rosallion comfortably.

I do not know how significant the draw at Ascot is . But, I think the early pacers would be Unquestionable (3), Metropolitan (2) and Darlinghurst (4) with Henry Longfellow (7) sitting just behind these; Notable Speech (5) tracking these with Rosallion (1) next to the rail.

Let's hope a clean race and no excuse tomorrow.
Report JayTrumpOldTomDubbl June 17, 2024 8:29 PM BST
Have another look at that Curragh race imp.
Report FOYLESWAR June 18, 2024 11:51 AM BST
notable speech no doubt  impressive in the gns but he has been on the go since january ,it might not make a difference but one or 32 may be fresher here , he may have also been on a better strip of ground in the gns i watched a few re runs and they seemed to be kicking up more divots than where he was in the final 2f ,he may still be too good here but  i prefer a few at bigger prices and almaqam impressed me in the heron stakes last time won well and while he needs to find a good bit could suprise a few here and is in the could be anything bracket .
we also have no idea how the french form compares and darlinghurst and metrpolitan have good looking form in the book and are big prices ,of the 2 i slightly prefer metroplitan who was a decnt winner of the french gns and is progressing has won on good ground and can be backed at a massive 50s  alaqam and metropolitan  will do for me ew at big prices  .
Report Millerracing67 June 18, 2024 2:40 PM BST
Fancy The same result as Newmarket 1,2.
Backed Notable Speech at 2.94 & the rev forecast 6&7.
Report FOYLESWAR June 18, 2024 3:21 PM BST
b356 doing a superboost 9/4 notable speech for those interested no idea how much they will stand
Report FOYLESWAR June 18, 2024 4:33 PM BST
metropolitan placed at 40/1 thatll do !
Report Figgis June 18, 2024 4:37 PM BST
Well done penzance. The only time I backed Rosallion this season he lost Sad. No excuse for Notable Speech. Had a nice break since the Guineas so should have been primed for this. Even if there were reasons why the Guineas form might be turned around he looked absolutely hopeless today.
Report A_T June 18, 2024 4:48 PM BST
2nd and 3rd for me but backed them for win. aidan almost did a bit of a city or troy there with henry longfellow

the favourite probably joins the long list of guineas winners never to win another race
Report elisjohn June 18, 2024 6:44 PM BST
great result for the hannons, pleased they won i really was willing him to go past the coolmore horse. i  backed the fav, but cant believe that this winner is   near canford cliffs class , !great race with 3 gns winners
Report Figgis June 18, 2024 7:34 PM BST
the favourite probably joins the long list of guineas winners never to win another race

Looking at how he ran today you could well be right. A lot of those other Guineas winners that disappointed later were consolidating what they'd achieved as 2yos. It has been said the Guineas can often be viewed as the last 2yo race, and that was proved to be the case for some of the winners. Notable Speech can't be put in that bracket because he didn't run as a 2yo, and what he'd won earlier this year, as impressive as he looked, wasn't achieving that much.

Regardless of whether he was as good as I thought, and accepting there was a case for Rosallion getting the better of him this time, NS was clearly well below his best with no obvious excuse for running as badly as that. The only reason I can think of is the large leap going from winning Mickey Mouse all weather affairs to the very hot race that was this year's Guineas has set him back physically.

All credit to Rosallion though, who proved me wrong to be concerned about him regressing and I have him up 1lb to a career peak. He might not yet be amongst the best 3yo milers I've seen but he's proved to be one of the toughest. The only consolation I can take from NS running so poorly is that even without him in the race I would've backed Henry Longfellow, who ran right up to my expectations. Shame he wasn't given the chance in the French Guineas Cry
Report elisjohn June 18, 2024 8:05 PM BST
the gns result bit of a fluke id say now, the way  the horse travelled  and won at hq , i thought he was the real deal
Report impossible123 June 18, 2024 8:18 PM BST
7/1 for the Sussex Stakes? I'd be tempted if he's sound and on good ground.
Report Figgis June 18, 2024 8:27 PM BST
the gns result bit of a fluke id say now

A fluke to the tune of 7 1/2 lengths?
Report Try My Best June 18, 2024 8:53 PM BST
I'll take your bet impossible.
Report Figgis June 18, 2024 11:56 PM BST
7/1 for the Sussex Stakes? I'd be tempted if he's sound and on good ground.

Well, it's not impossible. We've had above average Guineas winners like Zafonic, who went kaput afterwards and were retired. We've also had an above average winner in George Washington who went backwards then regained form at the end of the season. The only one I can recall that skipped the Irish Guineas then ran as badly as Notable Speech in the SJP was Mark Of Esteem. For me, he was just an ok Guineas winner, very slightly below average, but then bounced back better than ever in the Celebration Mile and went on to win the QE2.

He was similarly inexperienced before winning the Guineas, having not raced at 3 and only winning a maiden on his second of two starts as a 2yo. The difference was he had a noticeably hard race in the Guineas, whereas Notable Speech appeared to win more smoothly. Although any big effort such as that can take a lot out of a horse even if it isn't always obvious at the time.
Report penzance June 19, 2024 12:26 AM BST
Makfi was well btn in this.
Report FOYLESWAR June 19, 2024 7:48 AM BST
there werea few alarm bells for notable speech prior to the race yesterday ,notably b356 offering 9/4 as a boost they did similar with city of troy in the gns and we know how that ended . also he had been on the go since january and may have had a harder race than it seemed in the gns .
Report Figgis June 19, 2024 10:37 AM BST
Makfi was well btn in this

Yes, I'd completely forgotten he ran in this before returning to form to beat Goldikova and Paco Boy.
Report impossible123 June 19, 2024 2:28 PM BST
Notable Speech could be more likely to drop down to 7f; he ran out of puff in the stiff Ascot mile. Haatem vs Notable Speech over 7f in the Prix de la Floret on Arc day.
Report Try My Best June 19, 2024 5:54 PM BST
Best winner of the Guineas in the last 10 years as well. Funny old game this.
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