Horse Antepost

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30 May 24 12:39
Date Joined: 16 Nov 03
| Topic/replies: 176 | Blogger: thegibbons's blog
Hi Guys N Gals.
Has anyone worked out the Dosage for this year's Derby?
As it's a bit beyond my capability.
Would love to see if anyone has done it ,Thanks.
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Report chico quito May 30, 2024 4:49 PM BST
Hi thegibbons yep I did a dosage check. I tend to use it alongside a few other criteria but can be informative. Big finding after trawling back to 2006 was that was that a dosage index of between 0.6-0.7 is a big positive.
This brings in Dancing G, Voyage, Ancient Wisdom. So this is a handy shortlist for me. Any thoughts yourself pedigree- wise?
Report NonVintage May 30, 2024 6:42 PM BST
I used to run the field through my own Dosage-related algorithm, but in recent years this has tended to be less insightful - mainly because there is so much Galileo in so many pedigrees.

Have gone through this year's fields for both the Oaks and Derby, mostly looking for vaguely fancied horses with potentially suspect stamina.

In the Derby, the only horses with slightly iffy Dosage are Macduff and Tabletalk, who I have as bred for 9.7f and 9.9f respectively. After this, Mr Hampstead is a marginal concern at 10.7f and everything else - on breeding at least - has plenty of stamina. Two of these are rank outsiders and stamina may be the least of their worries!

In the Oaks, there are a few more: notably Secret Satire (7.9f), War Chimes (8.2f), You Got To Me (9.2f) and Making Dreams (9.3f). Slight concerns for Forest Fairy (10.5f) and Rubies Are Red (10.6f).

Obviously, depending on the strength, field size, and strength in depth of the race, stamina shortcomings can play a greater or lesser part. The Derby looks like a Group 3 at the moment, and The Oaks only a touch better, but hindsight may tell us something different.
Report thegibbons May 31, 2024 6:20 AM BST
Thank you Chico Quito and Non Vintage,your comments have been
Very helpful.
As I said I am useless at this so thanks for the help.
I sort of fancie Ambient Friendly.but I don't know how he fares
on the dosage index
Good luck to all!
Report NonVintage May 31, 2024 8:36 AM BST
thegibbons - basically he has plenty of stamina in his breeding.

My algorithm suggests an approximate 'ideal distance' based on Dosage of 11.5f, and he is third best on my ratings taking into account both breeding and form. The only horses marginally ahead of him are Ancient Wisdom and City Of Troy (who I am strongly against).
Report thegibbons May 31, 2024 10:03 AM BST
Non Vintage Thanks again for that.
Might try and ambitious comb FC
Ambiente friendly
Dancing Gemini
       Good luck
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