Horse Antepost

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30 Mar 24 15:53
Date Joined: 28 Sep 04
| Topic/replies: 9,394 | Blogger: Figgis's blog
Not usually a meeting I take more than a casual interest in but I'm having a couple of bets this year. I think the two Gosden mares, Nashwa and Emily Upjohn, not only represent value, but, if on top form, they both are the most likely winners of their respective races. I'm sure the Gosden yard will have them as fit as they could without a prep race, but being fit doesn't necessarily tie in with being in top form. John Gosden has stated that he worries that these races may come a bit early for his fillies, and that may prove to be the case. Nevertheless, I am backing them both and feel sure there will be chances to recoup any losses today later in the season, particularly with Emily Upjohn.
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Report Howellsy March 31, 2024 6:52 PM BST
Figgis, I wonder if you were expecting Nashwa to be ridden so prominently? Stall 16 made life tough, but surely a hold up ride out the back would have been more in keeping with the filly's previous run style?
Report Figgis March 31, 2024 9:35 PM BST
Hi Howellsy. Actually I was a bit apprehensive about how Doyle would ride her from the poor draw but was happy with what I saw under the difficult circumstances. Unlike when she was ridden poorly in the Nassau off the slow pace. I don't believe most horses are as restricted by run style as some suggest. It's far more important to ride them accordingly to the pace of the race. Yesterday I think Nashwa just wasn't really ready. She did take a couple of runs to come to hand last season.

I was more hopeful of Emily Upjohn, as she had won first time out every previous season. Unfortunately for me, she wasn't at her best yesterday. However, ready or not, that was a totally inept ride in view of what was happening up front. I will continue to follow both mares as, assuming they stay healthy, they are both capable of leaving that form a long way behind.
Report Howellsy April 7, 2024 10:36 PM BST
I'm confident Nashwa will have at least one day in the sun this year. Emily maybe not.
Report Figgis April 8, 2024 12:52 PM BST
Howellsy, why not Emily?
Report Howellsy April 10, 2024 9:09 AM BST
Well I suppose it depends on how they campaign her, but assuming she's up against the colts mostly, it'll surely be hard to find a small field bunch she can bully like last year at Epsom. Nashwa was there or thereabouts in two of last season's top races.
Report Figgis April 10, 2024 3:16 PM BST
Howellsy, I disagree that she needs a small field. I just think last season she was burned out after a couple of back to back fast races, that's not unusual. I backed Paddington to beat her in the Eclipse expecting it to be a fairly easy victory, but she put up a better run than I expected. In hindsight I could clearly see I'd underrated the Epsom win. I have her as fast (1lb faster actually) than any older filly I've rated in recent years and it's going to take a really top colt to beat her if she gets back to her best. It's not impossible, but it's unlikely she'll improve again at the age of 5 so I don't really see a string of victories to come but back to form I think she's highly likely to take a big Gp1. Provided she doesn't meet a top 3yo on those unfavourable mid summer wfa terms again.
Report Figgis May 30, 2024 10:54 PM BST
I still have no proof that Emily Upjohn is going to be as good this season, but as I expected her to go off odds on for this I will be going in again. I suppose there's the danger of a false pace but, that aside, at her best she beats this field comfortably before taking a better Gp1.
Report Figgis May 31, 2024 3:22 PM BST
They'll say EJ was too free, no cover, etc, but that was woeful. Retirement beckons.
Report Figgis May 31, 2024 3:22 PM BST
Report Howellsy June 1, 2024 1:47 PM BST
Didn't see this yesterday Figgis - was at Epsom. Hard to argue she wasn't value in a field where I considered 3 to be no hopers. I think she needs other horses to set up a pace and cut their own throats.
Report Figgis June 1, 2024 1:59 PM BST
Howellsy, I have to give up on her after that. It will probably be a decision that bites me on the backside, as Emily Upjohn chins one I back against her next time. I just thought it was a totally dismal showing. I know she had no cover and was running free, but Moore was setting a slow pace so it would have been foolish to have her too far back. Due to the slow pace the winning time was more like a Gp2 effort, so even allowing for her keenness it was very poor to see her a spent force as the pace quickened.
Report A_T June 1, 2024 2:56 PM BST
clever ride from moore slowing the pace right down making her pull her way out of contention
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