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pmt
15 Dec 23 17:48
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Date Joined: 02 Feb 02
| Topic/replies: 305 | Blogger: pmt's blog
I would appreciate your thoughts about this. We are running Botox Has who seems in good form this year. He wasn't quite right physically in the second half of last season but came back At Weatherby and gave 4lbs and a beating to Dashel Drasher and Thyme Hill. He has now won two grade2's and a grade 3 and is only 7.Actually he didn't like the heavy ground at Weatherby and didn't jump well. Normally he is very slick over hurdles. He is rated 152 and the favourites are rated 143 and 139 whilst Champ and Paisley park are getting old . We can't understand why we are 10/1 or more . I would love to hear your take on the race.
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Report FELTFAIR December 15, 2023 8:39 PM GMT
Run twice right handed(at Ascot) and not performed that well. His record suggests that the going whatever it turns out to be should not be a problem. If the right handed track is not a concern for you or Gary Moore then an each way chance I would suggest.Obviously if some of the current fancies don`t turn up then his task is made easier but assuming that not to be the case then I would anticipate a bigger price on Betfair than 12-1 and I would be backing ante post win before the declarations are made with the knowledge that your horse is a definite runner.On the day a reasonable x4 place market price may be available which may be attractive to you.
Bottom line good luck and that your horse comes back safe and sound.
Report pmt December 16, 2023 11:53 AM GMT
you make a good point about going right handed.he hasn't had much experience thatw ay round and he wasnt right physically at those Ascot races.He is a difficult horse to train and seems to catch every problem he can find . Twice we had to finish the season early after a niggle at the wrong time.
Report nocturnal December 17, 2023 11:15 PM GMT
Long Walk

8/12 aged 6-8
10/12 top 3 betting
5/12 won lto
10/12 ran within 32 days
8/12 ran at ascot
5/12 won ascot
10/12 rated 152 or above
10/12 won grade 1 race
11/12 ran at least once current season
8/12 won current season

(The Stats Don't Lie)

Take out Reve De Sivola who won off OR 149 and 151,back in 2012/2014 ... The only horse since to win off 152 was Paisley Park.

That might give you some Idea of the standard required to win previous runnings,8 of those recent winners were rated 155 minimum.

Only 2 horses below 7yr old have won,your lad has age on his side,perfect profile on that front.

Felt makes a good point,his 2 right handed runs were poor at Ascot,but dig a little deeper ....

They were given as Heavy and Soft,compared to standard they were 13.90 secs (heavy) and 15.22 secs (Soft) above standard.

Agreed they were much shorter distances,but if he has the family trait,they generally have no issue with deeper ground.

So the jury has to be out on his preference,although Fontwell has everything in it Wink

You mention niggles,they may have been a blessing,his record fresh is excellent,plenty of these stayers blossom later in their career.

Wetherby was not heavy,but it was probably the softish conditions he has encountered for some time,the triumph trial back in 2019 might be the case,that is how many of these going descriptions are incorrect,even his haydock win was only 10 secs above standard,on soft Cry,he won going away there,worth noting.

Jockey wise,again look at his record,certain jockeys do not suit every horse,no issue with CQ,100% on the beast.

Further down the line,go back to the family tree,it took Mullins a while to get the hood on Klassical Dream .... possible option for a big day.

Tactically,there are 2 places you do not want to be here or Chepstow,stay AWAY from the inside on both if it's soft.

5 day will tell you more,my initial thought is this looks there for the taking,as is the whole division.

He will need a career best on all known form,but there are plenty of positives going into the race.

Just a few musings,as always safe return we hope,the rest is a bonus,enjoy the ride PMT.
Report FOYLESWAR December 18, 2023 4:49 PM GMT
i know the stats ae against him but blueking doruex is interesting if lining up a dual course winner  and improving won last 2 and stepping up markedly  in trip , a 4yo with surely more to come and nicholls aiming him here could be significant , champ paisley and dashel look to have  best days behind them and division looks ripe for an up an comer ,west balboa also an improver but short enough   and the nicholls horse rated 5 pound higher on official ratings and can be backed at 16/1 ew .
Report FOYLESWAR December 18, 2023 6:26 PM GMT
dont know if any 4yos have won thisbut then again dont spose many have tried.
Report pmt December 18, 2023 7:20 PM GMT
its a big ask for a 4 year old but the only real alternative race would be the Relkeel on new years day in which he would get a 6lb penalty against the likes of Maries Rock.
Report FOYLESWAR December 18, 2023 7:34 PM GMT
yeah i know pmt but ?s against a fair few of these good luck with botox .
Report paulo47 December 19, 2023 1:29 PM GMT
JJ Burke riding Crambo , a bit strange ....
Report pmt December 19, 2023 3:37 PM GMT
Crambo is a strange favourite. He got beaten off 139 at haydock and you need to be run to 158 to win this.can anyone understand the logic.
Report kevinglass December 20, 2023 2:16 PM GMT
Gowel Road gave Crambo a 1lb, and was 2 lengths back last time.

5/2 and 33/1??
Report paulo47 December 20, 2023 6:12 PM GMT
Think Brace lost ride after Haydock , you can lay at 4 on machine .
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