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eric_morris
30 Nov 23 06:00
Joined:
Date Joined: 27 Jun 10
| Topic/replies: 8,290 | Blogger: eric_morris's blog
I guess there are techniques on here where horses that may end up non runners are milked a little before that happens or not in which case the strategy might not work (if the horse runs and also wins).

An example is the £400 bet left up on Gerri Colombe at 4.1 for the King George.

A bit can be taken at 3.75 but whoever is asking for 4.1 is not moving the bet anywhere lower.

Is this a bet the person thinks is unlikely to be laid at the price but shows enough seeming confidence that it will encourage other punters to back him at lower prices than that on here?

If he turns out a non runner a tidy sum will be made by those taking the bets on Elliots horse over the next 4 weeks. If he runs and wins it will have backfired if it is the same person putting the request for £400 up at 4.1 that is also laying all the lower prices to others on the confidence wave their 4.1 stopper generates.

Is this a laying strategy used on here? It makes sense though you are chancing your £400 does get laid. There again if you were pretty sure he wasn’t going to run then all you need to worry about is how much money you need in your account to lay all the bets and the lower the price you lay the more you can take in bets for the same amount to pay out. So the stopper bet at 4.1 is set at a level tempting you to take a price better than at the bookies but not too much better as your bank will be used quicker so taking less from backers in stake money.

The layers on here will all come on here in their droves and explain i am sure :)
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Report eric_morris November 30, 2023 6:06 AM GMT
Elliott has said he might change his mind ten times by the time the race comes so i suppose that will keep him an intended runner right up until the week of the race when he will have to be committed to this or the race in Ireland so there could be a lot of backers getting involved over that time.
Report eric_morris November 30, 2023 8:26 AM GMT
So he is being offered at 3.9 on here which after your average punters 5% commission is deducted gives 2.75/1 which is 11/4 the same as the best price he is in a couple of places with mainstream bookies. I guess the 4.1 stopper bet above bookie prices is only going to be layed if someone has a strong view on the horse not running and winning.
Report eric_morris November 30, 2023 8:41 AM GMT
It is commendable how Elliott has let punters know loud and clear quite early that he is being considered for Kempton. Quite refreshing when a lot of trainers drop a surprise at the last minute messing markets up.
Report .Marksman. November 30, 2023 10:10 AM GMT
I imagine that if I were a layer, I would lay horses that won't run, at a bit more than a bit more than the bookies offer, to avoid suspicion:  Too big a price may encourage the backer to checkout the RP website before betting, just to be on the safe side.  But as long as it is not too big, greed should ensure you make a profit.

Hope this helps.
Report geoff m November 30, 2023 6:22 PM GMT
Worth a lay @ 3.9 .May not run, track not ideal , ground could dry out making a test of speed over stamina. With a chance to trade out in running with its style of racing if it does run.
Report impossible123 December 1, 2023 1:34 PM GMT
I've done that with Gerri at Kempton and Allaho. I think only one will show at best.
Report eric_morris December 2, 2023 7:12 AM GMT
It will be a nice Christmas present to those laying the odds below 4.1 for him if he doesn’t run.
Report eric_morris December 2, 2023 9:10 AM GMT
Fair play to Elliott and all the industry helping punters out by letting us know loud and clear he might run. Merry Christmas to you all.
Report .Marksman. December 3, 2023 1:43 PM GMT
Eric, I'm glad to see Elliott doing well nowadays, after all that he's had to put up with.  In the old days, before social media, he would have been left to just get on with training horses and no one would be offended by anything.  And there wouldn't be any reason for him to be photographed doing anything, because there wouldn't have been anywhere to post it. He does seem straightforward, anyhow.
Report eric_morris December 16, 2023 11:25 AM GMT
Yeah he is the new punters pal. He could even be the modern day Henry Cecil in pointing punters in the right direction.

Gerri is made for a staying Gold Cup he could be the one to beat in March. There are likely to be a couple quicker than him in the King George.
Report eric_morris December 26, 2023 2:11 PM GMT
Gordon, Gordon .. where’s Gerri? Ah well pleased I didn’t take any of the prices on here for him for the King George.
Report geoff m December 27, 2023 6:56 AM GMT
geoff m30 Nov 23 18:22Joined: 23 Feb 03 | Topic/replies: 19,341 | Blogger: geoff m's blog
Worth a lay @ 3.9 .May not run, track not ideal , ground could dry out



Hopefully punters will learn not to listen to trainers. It wasnt to difficult to see which way it was going to go.
Report eric_morris December 27, 2023 7:35 PM GMT
The reason i made the first post was i thought there were Christmas presents being dished out help yourselves. Hopefully people didn’t take the prices when he was being hyped for the race by the racing media.
Report eric_morris December 27, 2023 8:02 PM GMT
On that subject ..

geoff m30 Nov 23 18:22Joined: 23 Feb 03 | Topic/replies: 19,341 | Blogger: geoff m's blog
Hopefully punters will learn not to listen to trainers. It wasnt to difficult to see which way it was going to go.


Just remember the next time pundits on tv and in the media shout loud and clear it isn’t worth knowing in most cases in fact best not to know. The market on here normally confirms which as in this case.
The point is whenever they complain about racing diminishing in importance to punters ‘the industry’ need to think about what they themselves bring to the table for new punters to racing. I doubt they want to be encouraged to back a future non runner courtesy of ‘the industry’ and are likely to go for guaranteed runner sports like football instead.
Report eric_morris December 27, 2023 8:03 PM GMT
They ain’t going to hang around working out which trainers have total distain for punters while counting their losses.
Report eric_morris December 28, 2023 6:17 PM GMT
Apparently Gerri was spotted a tatey field behind Galopin Des Champs through a powerful pair of binoculars today, different parish.
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