2024 Prix de L'Arc de Triomphe

not a good ride on delius but looked like he might need further. winner boosts the form of the prix du jockey

gave Delius a lot to do

I have been interested at 33/1 in AOB’s 4yo Continuous since his excellent 3 lengths 5th last season’s Arc.
Supplemented for €120k pretty much trying the impossible to emulate Ballymoss winning Leger & Arc in the same season, and after only a 14 day break from Doncaster.
That was still a fine effort after a busy schedule of 9 races in just over 13 months.
Been given a long rest after the Arc not returning to the track for 8 months in the Hardwicke where fitness seemed to tell.
He has the class, is rated 119 and recorded a best RPR of 122 in the Arc. He’s good ew value if he’s entered.
Pre race AOB commented:
“He’s back cantering, but is a bit behind the others and hasn’t worked yet. We are hoping to have him ready for Royal Ascot where a race like the Hardwicke Stakes could be the one for him. He showed his stamina in the St Leger, but he ran really well in the Arc, and we think he’s pacey enough to be a mile-and-a-half horse at the top level. He bends his knee, and you’d imagine soft ground will suit him, but Ryan says he’s a typical Heart’s Cry and they love fast ground too.”

Ballymoss was a 4yr old when he won the Arc.

mqs de sevigne won again today over 7f group 1 .

Owner, Baron Ed De Rothschild sounded pretty definite about going to the Arc with MQSE DE SEVIGNE.

for some unknown reason I described mqs de sevigne as him she is of course a mare the spelling wernt to clever either

Opera Singer the winner of The Nassau could be this way bound. A 12/1 for this. I think Look De Vega is still my choice.

havent given up on delius was given a lot to do and the winner looks a good un ,a more positive ride should suit and probably room for some improvement being so lightly raced .

MQSE DE SEVIGNE runs in the Group 1 Sumbe Prix Jean Romanet (1:33) as a prep for the Arc.

Does anyone really think Los Angeles is a serious contender for The Arc? I understand he was giving weights in The Voltigeur. To me he's a grinder and lacking the acceleration for this race to win.

Content just won the Yorkshire Oaks despite pulling very hard for most of the race; the pace was not strong enough for her (apparently). Could she end up here? She's not in the betting (yet).

on the back of her last run where she scraped home  at short odds mqse de sevigne drifted out to 40/1 with bills ,on the face of it a disappointing performance by the mare but that was prob just a prep for the arc and Fabre seemed happy enough saying she always wins narrowly.  could be there is plenty more in the locker ,whatever, I have been taking the 40s which seemed great value assuming all is well as the 25s before her last race looked fair  to me ,33s bills now and I have been going in at that as well.

No horse stamped their authority on the race today coming out of the trials.
Thought the Japanese horse ran a fair race yesterday looking like further
will suit.Looks wide open atm.

Shin Emperor ran similar races in their Guineas (10f) and Derby (12f).
Running on late.
But agree he ran a solid trial yesterday.

In my opinion none of the runners have put up a performance usually expected of an all age Gp1 winner. I agree with the comments about Shin Emperor. I have his performance at Leopardstown better than anything I've seen from Sosie, Look De Vega, etc.I also agree it appeared that going further would be in his favour. I thought his jockey was a bit erratic, would need to ride with a bit more confidence around Longchamp.. In what looks to be a subpar renewal on paper, it could be the year the Japanese finally win it. Not a bet I'll be having with any great confidence but he's the only one that appeals.

Look De Vega did look a touch burly in the Prix Niel in comparison to the Jockey Club.

2 weeks till the arc and the picture looking a bit clearer , the neil threw up a few clues and most of the talk post race was that the look de vega needed the race thast may well be so but fabre and rouget know whats required and would have left a fair bit to work on for the big day .i had some 40/1  ew sosie after the jockey club when fabre said he is the sort that would improve for a step up in trip and would go on improving as the season went on ,the price has gone now and we dont know what the ground will be so he is no value now . look de vega  impressive jockey club winner should improve for the neil but so should the winner and 2nd and of the 3 delius could offer value at an ew price but prob better waiting till nearer racetime when bog kick in .al riffa bluestocking both seem to have improved a bit this season but price has collapsed on al riffa after pricewise tipped him ante post and blue stocking needs supplementing .
shin emperor  ran a decent race in the irish champion  but possible soft/heavy ground would be concern i have also backed delius ante post and the one that interests me most at the prices who i am top heavy on is  is mqs de sevigne who can still  be backed at 33/1 with the firms a multi group race winner albeit in small fields mainly and she seems to only win by narrow margins shds necks etc ,fabre seems keen and connections are not worried about the  step up in trip ,she only just does enough and could have a lot more in the locker than she has shown and who knows she could improve for it ,her narrow wins are probably the reason for her price but has form on good  soft /heavy ground and looks the value call to me at this stage .
selection mqs de sevigne 33/1 ew .

Why do you think soft ground will be a concern for Shin Emperor,  Foyles?

might be a concern ..by my reading he has mainly raced on firmish unless i have read it wrong brandy .might be better  or as good on soft  but its an unknown

Will LDV improve more than Sorsie having been off 61 days longer than Fabres horse is a key question?

If he does, and if he can reprise his run at Chantilly where he beat Sorsie by 2L+, then he is a value bet at 8.0.

Fabre is a master trainer so we can expect him to improve Sorsie again but he did have only 41 days off after winning the GPdeP so he came into the race a fitter horse than LDV, whilst that horse's trainer admitted afterwards that the horse was much heavier than at Chantilly. There is the argument that LDV can reverse the form.

There are other horses of course, to consider, but these two have decent claims.

41 days not 61.

and 64 days off for Sorsie not 41. My apologies. Had a few posting issues.

Sandown, do you think Sorsie's form is better than that of Shin Emperor?

Personally I don't believe Look De Vega's PDJC win is anything like as good as I thought immediately after the race. Even allowing for that he was definitely below par last time, which may have been due to lack of fitness, but if I did still rate him and had backed him I'd now be harbouring doubts about him having the stamina for the Arc after his latest effort.

I think the $64k question about LDV is value, and not ability in comparison to Sosie. For instance his price has doubled from 7/2 to 7/1 because he was "heavy and defeated" in the Prix Niel - he ran accordingly. However, he did beat Sosie in the Jockey Club with a competitive racing weight; had he bypassed the Prix Niel and come straight for this he'd be no bigger than 7/2.

On the other hand anyone with a bet on Sosie - the winner of the Prix Niel - will hope the visibly/perceived lacklustre performance of LDV in the Prix Niel was not solely down to the condition he was carrying. Otherwise, his backers will still have his defeat in the Jockey Club at the back of their mind. And, for the remainder LDV would have been the one to beat here prior to the Prix Niel, and his "defeat" in the Prix Niel had given them added hope.

I think if LDV is trained by Fabre or Rouget - multiple winning trainers of this race - his price may not have doubled to 7/1 for sure. I also think Shin Emperor is more likely to finish infront of Los Angeles (LA) again here - he overtook LA just before the finishing line in the Irish Champion Stakes.

This time on 6th Oct all will be known. May the best horse win. Goodluck!

I agree with you impossible 123 about LDV v Sorsie. We shouldn't forget that LDV went off at 8/13 in the Niel so the horse  was clearly expected to beat Sorsie and Delius . I think that Sorsie was fitter on the day and LDV wasn't given a hard race when his chance had gone . We can expect to see a fitter horse on Oct 6 and if he can perform as he did at Chantilly he has a very good chance of reversing the form with both of those who finished in front of him in the Niel.

Figgis. I have reviewed my figures for LDV and I have down-rated him. Certainly at this stage he is no Ace Impact but I believe that he compares well with a number of recent Arc winners. I don't have a worry about the trip for him after looking again at all his runs.

As impossible 123 says, it is more about value at this stage and less about which horse has the best winning chance, so I have backed him again at the 8.0.

Sandown, well, at least on paper, it looks like he wouldn't have to be as good as Ace Impact to beat this field. LDV still has the potential to prove himself an above average 3yo. I suppose the same could be said for Sosie given his profile, even though I don't fancy him and see his form as weak as Feed The Flame's was going into last year's race. Otherwise, it looks a very weak race.

I meant above average in Gp1 terms, he's obviously already an above average 3yo.

Figgis
This years race certainly has the look of a sub-par race. None of top 30 or so in the betting have achieved ratings which when adjusted for WFA and Sex put them in a bracket to-date which might indicates a strong candidate on  previous form to win the race.(If I'm wrong, please point them out.)


Therefore, either the winner will have to show significant improvement and /or the conditions will help to spring a surprise.Looking at the weather forecst for the next 14 days in Paris, it doen't look as though there will be much in the way of drying weather so I'm guessing that the going will be on the soft side at least, as is normally the case.

You asked me for my view on Shin Eemperor. I have a few question marks against the race form at face value because although it was hard fought G1 and the RPRs given were high (Economics 124) the final time was slowish giving a TS of just 101. The finishing sectional of 24.8 for the winner wasn't great which means Im have a question mark . As for the Japanese horse, he looked as though he could go  on from that, he is relatively lightly raced but there are doubts that he hasn't raced on anything slower than good. All bar this race have been on good to firm so that is a doubt. I give him a chance but he must improve.On the plus side, he hadnt raced since May so you would think he should improve for that run.

My two for this are LDV and Shin Emperor. Personally, these are the two most viable candidates to win. Both have the least questionable potential and most chances in comparison to the rest including Sosie. Any other winner will almost certainly render this renewal as mediocre and subpar, sadly.

a TS of just 101

The low Tospeed figure is just a limitation of the method employed. All the other races on the card would need to be held down in order to accommodate the fast time recorded by Dance Night Andday in the handicap.

impossible 123

Given that there isn't one horse with even an average rating to-date to win an average Arc, the 2 horses you  mentioned  (LDV and Shin Emperor) do have the potential to improve as you say,(allowing for the ground doubt with the Japanese horse.) I would also have to seriously consider Sosie (trainer factor) and Las Vegas (trainer factor) if the latter runs. They will be the horses I will concentrate on.

( NB Bluestocking ran well in winning but she has some ground to make up on ratings. )

Figgis


That Dance Night Andday rating may be suspect because they play around with the 7f distance. The same race last year was offically over 7.33f and in June it was 7.27f and 7.21f. Might that explain why the 10f race allowance was affected if they tried to use one GA for the 7f and 10f races?

Sandown, yes that could be the reason, although the first race on the card wasn't out of whack like that race was. I used to think that the more races on a card it would be easier to analyse the times, but over the years I've learned that it isn't necessarily so. The longer a meeting lasts then the more chance of wind changes, etc. Personally, at the very least, I would exclude that race from any attempt at coming up with an allowance for the other races. Admittedly this makes the job more subjective, but, in my view, allowing all the other time performances to be tied down by that one race is obviously wrong.

attheracesnews ande fabre gives his take on his arc principles

My a.p bet this year is 100/1 Haya Zark.  The owner has stated that he runs here as he also has an entry in the Prix Dollar.
Lots of rain around in Paris and no heat, the current penetrometer reading is 4.4 which is very soft and I can't see it getting a lot quicker.  Haya Zark needs at least 3.8 or higher for best performance.
They are hopeful of a place in these conditions.
He's a better horse than last year when down the field, and he had a nice come back in a 10f trial a few weeks ago.

good luck smokey my kind of price and why not , my thoughts further down the thread ground should be soft which wont hinder my 3 ,have been going in on the mare almost everyday at all rates down from 40s to 25s will keep going in at the 25s ........god knows how much i have put on  in around half a dozen accounts  and 2 shops  dont want to look tbh ,often go in like a bull in a china shop when i fancy one which is fine if one dart happens to hit the target .

I understand Shin Emperor has only run on GF going in Tokyo but he seemed to handle Good going at Leopardstown very well. He also finished best. Maybe the impending much softer going at Longchamp next weekend may not be such a hindrance as some pundits are envisaging. I believe the offsprings of Siyouni (sire) have run well on soft going in the past.

there is a horse that has won 5 group 1s trained by a master who holds the record for arc wins also trains the fav and says he fancys the mare , one is 4/1 the other 25/1  this horse has never run over 12f but he says he thinks she will lmprove for the step up in trip he also says she loves soft ground ...........hmn .......i woke up a few months back and smelt the coffee !

Just over a week to go for the most premier open race of the Flat season in the world. I hope all the principals turn up possibly even with a maximum field.

Good luck all!

Fabre confident Sevigne can sparkle over Arc trip

Yes Foyles, that headline on the ATR website fills you with confidence regarding MQSE DE SEVIGNE. I noted earlier on this thread that owner, Baron Ed De Rothschild was targeting the Arc.

I started this thread saying that it was good news that Auguste Rodin was being kept in training with the possibility of running in the Arc.  But since then I have formed the opinion that he is not to be trusted and, if he runs, I will make sure he is the only red in my book.  The only mitigating circumstance that I can think of to explain his shocking runs which seem to occur randomly inbetween wins is that he doesn't handle any sort of soft ground at all.  His 2yo wins on heavy or soft don't count because he wasn't fully developed at the time and the horses he beat have generally turned out to be moderate or overrated.
However, on Firm and Good to Firm he is 3 from 4 and these were all G1 races.  Latest reports from Paris state that the going will be either Good to Soft, Soft or Very Soft.
Jean-Guillaume d’Orglandes, track superintendent at Longchamp and two other French tracks explained: ""We were at 3.5 [soft] on the penetrometer this morning following 4mm of rain in the previous 24 hours and nearly 20mm since last Tuesday.

"This time of the year at Longchamp you get cool nights and a heavy dew so the moisture tends to stay in the ground."

yes marksman andre fabre  said quote i fancy the mare and seemed to be hinting he didnt think there was much between sosie and mds he sorta said he  couldnt split them ,obviously much can happen in the race and you need a bit of luck as well but its positive comments like that you want to hear going into the race,  well not long to go now  and a few more could be supplemented should be a largish field ,good luck all .

Had a peek at the Weather and apart from a bit of light rain today , dry at least till Sunday .

What's the maximum field size,this year?

18 decs today but a few could be supplemented and a few may not run depending on going prob  around 16-18 runners

Thanks Foyle, but I meant what's the maximum they allow? Betfair are still holding money back against balloted runners at the moment.

24

24 is max so no horses will be balloted out.

I guessed that. I wonder if I can bothered having a row with them.

They'll sort it out eventually, I suppose.

And thanks btw

Look De Vega cane through his final piece of work on turf with flying colours, and connections are growing in confidence they have him exactly where they want for sunday's ARC.

If LDV was trained by Fabre or AOB he would be clear favourite after these comments especially if the jockey was Soumillon or Moore. But it is what it is and it does mean he is trading at a more backable price. LDV's win at Longchamp on May 5 was where he caught my eye and stopwatch so the course holds no worries, nor does the ground. Just needs a good draw now but the field size may not be an issue.

I'd like to see LDV in 4th/5th position (from the front) coming off the last bend. A draw between 6 & 8 will be a bonus.

The ground at PARISLONGCHAMP is officially VERY SOFT (3.9) (1st October 2024).

source: https://irbracing.com/french-ground-conditions/

The going for Arc weekend is expected to be very soft to soft, according to France Galop.

Light rain is forecast for Monday and Tuesday, it will then remain cloudy for the rest of the week before the weather picks up at the weekend.

Since the last meeting on September 15, a total of 40 millimetres of rain has fallen compared with 31mm last year.

ATR

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kGX9k74dtpA

For those interested in LDV here is a video of the horse's last gallop before the Prix Niel. The most informative bit is the trainer saying he was 80% fit...before the race. If so, his performance in the Prix Niel was only to be expected. Hopefully, we will see a much improved horse on Sunday.

I don't think we will know for sure what the going will be until they run on the Saturday.
Last year they had the ground as good to soft but the times said it was much faster.

Final decs at 9.30am tomorrow. The draw is at about 10am. Good luck!

yes good luck all !

no more rain till sunday according to paris forcast !

All standing except Auguste and Luxembourg and Opera Singer, the horse Moore told AOB to bring back for The Arc after winning the Boussac last year.

In this years Arc there are no standout stars dominating the race. No Enables, or Zarkavas, Peintre Celebres,& Sea The Stars. Horses trading at 4.0 or less.

This year we have 3 horses at between 5.5 and 7.0,another 2 under 11.5.They are around 70% of the market. An open race, on paper.
All need to improve to achieve even an average rating for a  winner of this race. All have cases. So, how to play such a race?

Significant improvement usually is to be found with lightly raced horses .. These are LDV (4 runs) Sorsie  (6) Shin Emperor (7) , Los Angeles (7), so these 4 are the ones I am  concentrating on this year. The first 4 in the market. They all have a case but come with risks.

Of the 4, LDV has the most potential for improvement. He also has a good  win over Sorsie in the French Derby and there are excuses for his last run, which considering he was only 80% fit, and it was a trial, I am prepared to overlook.

Sorsie is trained by Fabre, is proven at 12f and is progressive. The doubt is the ground as he would prefer faster ground.

Shin Emperor and Los Angeles ran to similar ratings in the Irish Champion. The Japanese horse is not at all proven on soft ground and doesn’t win often, whilst Los Angeles has put up the same rating for his last 3 runs.

Therefore, I will be  backing both LDV and Sorsie to win, but HDV will be my largest stake. As a value bet at a bigger price I will have something on Delius EW as he is also lightly raced, progressive and ties in with Sorsie. Trained by Roget who masterfully prepared Ace Impact last year.

Sandown, I hope your assessment is correct. If so, very green for both of us. I hope Shin Emperor could emulate his sire and handle soft ground; the value is there at 10 here. However, I'm wholly against the O'Briens' out of principle in this renewal.

Watched the trials again a few times & keep coming back to Bluestocking.
This season she's only been behind 4 horses,3 of which,City Of Troy,Goliath
& Calandagan would be very high up in the mkt for this.That was also over the
extended 10Fs on G/F,I think she's better suited to this trip with  cut in the
ground.After looking in a bit of trouble in the Vermeille she won that more
comfortably than the  margin suggests.No reason the the 2ND,Aventure, will reverse
that to me.I can't see the Neil form being over turned either,Sosie was much the
best in that,Look De Vega had an easy enough lead & was a bit disappointing.
Bluestocking (3) also has a decent draw.
The unbeaten rnr this season,Mqse De Sevigne,form looks good on paper but she hasn't
beat much if you go through her races.She was only just in front of Maxux when she
won LTO,that was hammered by Bluestocking in her previous start.Sunday's her 1ST go
over this trip & she could improve for it,she'll have to aswell.
Bluestocking's connections have paid a fair few quid to put her in this & must think
they have a good cahnce of recouping that.
Around the 10-11/1 mark with the books aswell as on here atm.
   GL ALL

impossible 123. The three combined have a 46% chance of the winner being in the three imo. Odds combined are 40%. So, its still odds against having the winner

PS
On the more bullish side, I have them as a 52%  combined chance but for staking purposes I am more cautious.

Where does the pace come from in this race? No pacemakers entered from Ballydoyle.

I agree with a lot of what you say, Sandown.
None of these have put up a performance yet to win an average Arc.
I also agree that LDV is the I e with the potential to be the big improver.
I backed Delius and Continuous a few months ago so hoping one of them can scrape a place to cover stakes.
I do not see the angle on the Japanese horse, myself.
He has run on after the race is over in the Japan 2000 guineas,  their Derby and Irish Champion.

Sandown, 46% may be true. But, realistically 1/2 the field are non-event unless a complete long shot prevails. My average odds for LDV (in multiples) is about 24/1. I've done a few savers, and hope to lay off LDV a little more.

pace possibly could come from sevvenas knight a strong stayer

Is it for real? Los Angeles is into 4/1f with some books. I might even lay him for 3-places at 1.62 here.

only 7 pound between the top rated and bottom rated on official ratings and  possible anything can win if the cards fall right .

Imp where are you laying LA at 1.62 3 places, certainly not on here.

Los Angeles doesn't particularly stand out on form.  But I have now given up laying AOB horses for a whole week and consequently my mental health has improved already, so I am going to make sure that Los Angeles will be green in my book.

"Imp where are you laying LA at 1.62 3 places, certainly not on here." - Presumably with the same outlet that he has backed LDV with at average odds of 24-1 in multiples.

I'm fairly certain I came across in an online bookie. I cannot remember for sure where though. It could have been 4-places.

I've over £30 win double Jan Brueghel (5/1) and LDV (7/2). I've lay off some, maybe more tomorrow if the price is right.

Probably more given some were on odds-boost.

When tackling a Gp1 short on really top quality horses, as this one is, it's always tempting to look for a possible improver, something that will produce the kind of performance most of us would like to see. The ones with possible untapped potential look to be the 3yos, Sosie, Look De Vega, and the one who I think has so far shown the best form, Shin Emperor, who is the one I was thinking of backing.

"I haven't seen any top-class three-year-olds, if you put aside City Of Troy, and I think he still has to prove a bit more. Of the others, they are all good but none is top class." The words of Andre Fabre, which I completely agree with.

Sometimes, however, it pays to accept that this may prove to be a below par renewal, and all that's needed to win is a reproduction of the best effort seen already. Earlier this year I couldn't have had Al Riffa on my mind as a possible Arc winner. Nevertheless, if approaching this year's Arc with no preconceptions he is my highest rated going into the race. On these wfa terms I have him 3lbs clear of the Japanese horse. He won the National Stakes as a 2yo in a reasonable time, but more worthy of a Gp2 than Gp1. Then appeared to have difficulties as a 3yo and wasn't seen much. In the Eclipse I had him improving by 5lbs, and he didn't have to run as well to beat some German nags next time.

When a horse shows belated improvement, as he has done this year, it's impossible to say if it'll sustain that form or if it will end as abruptly as it appeared. But I'm sure that if he repeats it he could run to a place in an average Arc, and may just be good enough to win this year if nothing else shows improvement. He's my bet.

What did you have today's going as, Fig?

Good question, brandy.  It seemed to be chewing up a bit on the inside towards the end of the card, but tomorrow will be on fresh ground next to the rail.  Figgis will know...

Brandy,.Marksman, today I have it down as just into soft ground territory, no worse than that.

Thank you

The 'Arc' seems to have been the plan all year with Al Riffa. His second in July to COT was a decent effort. Especially when he was never in it to win it in mho. I see 'Figgis' say he has him improving 5lbs for that showing. That maybe so but its hard to know what's really going on when taking each other on in the big races. They could try set it up for 'Al'. Who knows. Despite liking his chance I cannot have that jockey so no bet. Would prefer Dylan on it. I will bet Bedtime Story in the first. That Moyglare run was strange, very strange. He will be all out to topple the French odds on shot and will surely dictate the pace. The French filly will know she's in a real race tomorrow. Bedtime is a decent price at 10/3 or slightly better. Good luck with your bets 'Figgis', and everyone.

The Irish horses have been well backed esp Al Riffa despite his jockey. LDV, Sosie and Shin Emperor for me. In this order would be nice.

Good luck everyone!

Well done,Penzance

Fabre must be right when he said the 3 year old are bad. COT only walloped the winner 8 and half lengths at York.

Penzance, your assesment of the trials (Vermeille and Neil) was spot on. Well Done.

arc winner , from what i can see on this thread not even mentioned until Penzance post the other day. good call

Yes, excellent work penzance. I didn't think she'd beat all the colts, well done.

Try my best,     COT only beat AL RIFFA  a good length in eclipse , AL Riffa unsighted today, perhaps Fabre is correct

well done penzance

Yes he only beat dual group 1 winner and 3/4 length runner up to Ace Impact Al Riffa a length and battered the dual group 1 winner Bluestocking. I think most sane people would want COT under their ownership.

Great day for Rossa and a very good and simple ride. The Japs won't win this race when they continue to let their Jocks ride their horses in this race. When in Rome.

goliath woulda been interesting if allowed to run bt blue stocking in the king george

Congrats to Bluestocking and her connections esp her trainer and owner. They both deserve to win after coming in 2nd last year. Her owner was incredibly brave and sporting supplementing her for £120k; the return was 20x more. The horse deserved to win for the many gallant efforts prior; her jockey too for keeping it simple, and effective.

I cannot but think most here would feel deflated post The ARC.

The race was seriously affected by pace, draw, position, scrimmaging and ground.  LDV never turned up , Sosie not as good on softer ground, Delius interfered with badly. A slow time, a poor renewal, the winner rates 122. Congrats to backers of Bluestocking who got the run of the race and a good ride from Ryan.

An expensive day for me but not the first and won't be the last.

It was a disappointing day for me too. I managed a green, but totally disregarded Bluestocking despite the field and her Vermeille win; I still believed the 3-yr-olds were superior then.

Another antepost humbling after that of City Of Troy in the 2000G. This game is full of swings and roundabouts. It's interesting and perils aplenty too; hard to take most times, joy and reward others.

It's only a game, never forget.

It was OK for me because I had Auguste Rodin as the only red in my book and he didn't run.