2024 Epsom Derby

The ratings firms will tell us that nearly every Derby winner improves to a new level on the day but I've never agreed with this. Sure, we've had the likes of Adayar, Wings Of Eagles and others whose form just boomed on the day but, for me, the majority of Derby winners had already shown form good enough. To catch the likes of Adayar you either have to be very lucky or back a load of runners, which isn't my style. Ambiente Friendly is the horse who has improved the most from 2 to 3, but without even further progression I can only see him placed in an average Derby.

There are only two runners left that I believe have already shown average Derby winning form, City Of Troy and Ancient Wisdom. I have talked about City Of Troy before and why I believed he was overrated, and while I still think he could win a Derby if he can repeat his best 2yo form and I am not going to start backing him now, especially at these kind of odds. Ancient Wisdom's reappearance was disappointing at the time, but he ran against a vastly improved 3yo. If Economics had recovered from that trial in time and they'd chosen to run I would have made him an odds chance as I think he could have won in the style of an above average Derby winner.

Even though well beaten I have Ancient Wisdom only 8lbs below his best. He was pulling hard early on in the Dante and Buick was battling to settle him. In the circumstances he finished off the race well, even accounting for the fact they were all slowing markedly late on. He's never been a tearaway before and I think the keenness can just be put down to being fresh first time out. Unlike COT I think he's certain to get the 12f. It's possible that AW has regressed from his 2yo days but it has to be too early to write him off and I can easily see him finding those 8lbs with that run behind him. He's the only runner I would even consider backing and I am doing so.

yeah figgis agree with a lot of that regarding ancient wisdom he was an uneasy fav in the dante and appleby said he will come on for the race , my thinking is that he was btn by a possibly potentially top class 10f horse in economics ,  a class horse outspeeding a stayer and that run although btn 6l many wrote him off but he was staying on quite well at the finish and the derrby trip should suit much better and i can see no reason why he shouldnt improve a fair few pounds wether thats good enough on the day  we will see .

.

.

Well Figgis hope you invested at the weekend and caught one or both of the winners of the Curragh Classics.

Hi JTOTD, just had a few quid on Fallen Angel, but unfortunately not enough to match what I would've won if she'd run to form at Newmarket.

any chance ryan riding los angelos seems to shorten every time i look

yeah noticed that too!

Still a few unknowns. Economics was the biggest one but he is not in the 5 day list so I am assuming he can no longer be supplemented. The next is the ground which is currently soft so that may mean a few more doubtful stayers won't run. Apart from a small interest in Ambiente Friendly (since laid off at a lower price) I have no fixed ideas and prefer to weigh up the rest at the overnight stage.
Ancient Wisdom, Bellum Justum and Dancing Gemini will probably be my alternatives if they run.

city of troy can be backed at 5 on ear as we speak ! anouncement iminent ?

The Epsom ground is good/soft today, Tuesday.
The course dries quickly so it could be naything on race day, from soft to firm.
The only certainty is the word "good" will be in the going description.

I decided to have a look at the average winning distance of the sire and damsire of the runners in the race.
I am not convinced the AWD is an accurate measure of the sire's distance influence as he is bred to a mare population that ran at all distances.
The average distance of all flat races is about 9.3f so if the sire's AWD is 11.3f you can be sure his influence is much further.
My calculation of a sire with 11.3f AWD is 13.3f X 2 - 9.3f = 11.3f i.e, a sire of influence 13.3f and a dam population of 9.3f give his published AWD of 11.3f (13.3+9.3)/2


I came up with these

Sire = published AWD   
Damsire = his AWD
S/DS = a calculated AWD of sire AWD + 1/2 damsire AWD   
Dam = her best distance (my opinion)

S inf = my calculated sire AWD as described above
DS inf = my calculated Damsire AWD as described above
S/DS inf = the sire influence + 1/2 the damsire influence

"Everything is learned by comparison"
What are the numbers fro the 2024 Derby field, and what wer the numbers for previous Derby winners?
Some dams did not race, I did not look up the dam winning distance of most of the Derby winners, and AWD was missing for a few sires.

No___Name_____________[ Sire___DS___S/DS ]…..( Dam )……...[ S inf___DS inf___S/DS inf ]

16___Padesha_____________[9.0___9.3___9.1 ]…....( 8.0 )……........[ 8.7___9.3___8.9 ]
8____Diego Velazquez_____[ 10.4___6.9___9.2 ]…..( 8.0 )…….......[ 11.5___4.5___9.2 ]
9____Euphoric____________[ 10.4___8.0___9.6 ]…..( 10.0 )…….......[ 11.5___6.7___9.9 ]
12___Kamboo______________[ 8.8___11.3___9.6 ]..…..( nr )….….....[ 8.3___13.3___10.0]
1____Ambiente Friendly __[ 9.6___9.9___9.7 ]…..( 10.0 )…….......[ 9.9___10.5___10.1 ]
14___Macduff_____________[ 11.3___7.2___9.9 ]…..( 8.0 )…….......[ 13.3___5.1___10.6 ]
15___Mr Hampstead________[ 11.3___7.3___10 ]…..( 10.0 )…….......[ 13.3___5.3___10.6 ]
2____Ancient Wisdom _____[ 9.5___11.2___10.1 ]…..( 12.0 )……......[ 9.7___13.1___10.8 ]
3____Bellum Justum ______[ 11.3___7.6___10.1 ]…..( 10.0 )……......[ 13.3___5.9___10.8 ]
19___Tabletalk___________[ 11.1___8.1___10.1 ]…....( nr )……......[ 12.9___6.9___10.9 ]
17___Portland____________[9.5___11.3___10.1 ]…..( 8.0 )…….......[ 9.7___13.3___10.9 ]
10___God's Window________[ 9.5___12.3___10.4 ]…..( 12.0 )…….....[ 9.7___15.3___11.6 ]
4____City Of Troy _______[ 10.1___11.3___10.5 ]…..( 10.5 )….....[ 10.9___13.3___11.7 ]
11___Illinois ___________[ 11.3___9.2___10.6 ]…..( nr )…….......[ 13.3___9.1___11.9 ]
13___Los Angeles_________[ 11.0___9.8___10.6 ]…..( nr )…….......[ 12.7___10.3___11.9 ]
7____Deira Mile__________[ 11.1___9.9___10.7 ]…..( 11.0 )……......[ 12.9___10.5___12.1 ]
6____Dancing Gemini______[ 11.1___11.2___11.1 ]…..( 10.0 )…….....[ 12.9___13.1___13.0 ]
5____Dallas Star_________[ 11.6___11.4___11.5 ]…..( nr )…….......[ 13.9___13.5___13.8 ]
20___Voyage______________[ 11.7___11.3___11.6 ]…..( nr )…….......[ 14.1___13.3___13.8 ]
18___Sayedaty Sadaty_____[ 13.0___11.3___12.4 ]…..( 14.0 )…….....[ 16.7___13.3___15.6 ]

nr = non-runner


........................................................................................................................................

Derby winners - lowest stamina at top

Year___Winner__________[ Sire___DS___S/DS ]…..( Dam )…….....[ S inf___DS inf___S/DS inf ]

2009___Sea the Stars_______[ 9.4___8.3___9 ]…..( 12.0 )…….......[ 9.5___7.3___8.8 ]
1992___Dr Devious__________[ 8.0___11.6___9.2 ]…..( nr )…….......[ 6.7___13.9___9.1 ]
2015___Golden Horn_________[ 9.4___9.5___9.4 ]…..( nr )…….......[ 9.5___9.7___9.6 ]
1999___Oath________________[ 7.8___13.3___9.6 ]…..( ??? )…….......[ 6.3___17.3___10.0 ]
2010___Workforce___________[ 9.0___11.4___9.8 ]…..( nr )…….......[ 8.7___13.5___10.3 ]
2018___Masar_______________[ 10.0___9.4___9.8 ]…..( 12.0 )…….......[ 10.7___9.5___10.3 ]
2019___Anthony Van Dyck____[ 11.3___6.8___9.8 ]…..( 6.0 )…….......[ 13.3___4.3___10.3 ]
2006___Sir Percy___________[ 8.7___12.1___9.8 ]…..( 10.0 )…….......[ 8.1___14.9___10.4 ]
2004___North Light_________[ 9.2___11.3___9.9 ]…..( 20.0 )…….......[ 9.1___13.3___10.5 ]
1994___Erhaab______________[ 10.1___9.6___9.9 ]…..( 10.5 )…….......[ 10.9___9.9___10.6 ]
1997___Benny the Dip_______[ 11.0___8.0___10 ]…..( 8.5 )…….......[ 12.7___6.7___10.7 ]
2021___Adayar______________[ 10.4___9.5___10.1 ]…..( 8.0 )…….......[ 11.5___9.7___10.9 ]
1996___Shaamit_____________[ 11.5___7.6___10.2 ]…..( ??? )…….......[ 13.7___5.9___11.1 ]
2008___New Approach________[ 11.3___8.0___10.2 ]…..( ??? )…….......[ 13.3___6.7___11.1 ]
2016___Harzand_____________[ 11.3___8.1___10.2 ]…..( ??? )…….......[ 13.3___6.9___11.2 ]
2020___Serpentine__________[ 11.3___8.4___10.3 ]…..( ??? )…….......[ 13.3___7.5___11.4 ]
2001___Galileo_____________[ 11.4___8.3___10.4 ]…..( ??? )…….......[ 13.5___7.3___11.4 ]
2005___Motivator___________[ 11.9___8.2___10.7 ]…..( ??? )…….......[ 14.5___7.1___12.0 ]
1998___High-Rise___________[ 9.8___12.4___10.7 ]…..( ??? )…….......[ 10.3___15.5___12.0 ]
2014___Australia___________[ 11.3___9.4___10.7 ]…....( ??? )…….......[ 13.3___9.5___12.0 ]
1989___Nashwan_____________[ 10.5___11.3___10.8 ]…..( ??? )…….......[ 11.7___13.3___12.2 ]
2023___Auguste Rodin_______[ 10.5___11.3___10.8 ]…..( ??? )…….......[ 11.7___13.3___12.2 ]
1993___Commander in Chief__[ 10.6___11.2___10.8 ]…..( ??? )……......[ 11.9___13.1___12.3 ]
2022___Desert Crown________[ 12.3___7.8___10.8 ]…..( ??? )…….......[ 15.3___6.3___12.3 ]
2013___Ruler of the World__[ 11.3___9.9___10.8 ]…..( ??? )…….......[ 13.3___10.5___12.4 ]
2000___Sinndar_____________[ 9.8___13.1___10.9 ]…..( ??? )…….......[ 10.3___16.9___12.5 ]
1995___Lammtarra___________[ 11.2___10.5___11 ]…....( ??? )…….......[ 13.1___11.7___12.6 ]
2017___Wings of Eagles_____[ 10.8___12.0___11.2 ]…..( ??? )…….......[ 12.3___14.7___13.1 ]
2012___Camelot_____________[ 11.9___9.9___11.2 ]…..( ??? )…….......[ 14.5___10.5___13.2 ]
1990___Quest for Fame______[ 11.3___11.2___11.3 ]…..( ??? )…….......[ 13.3___13.1___13.2 ]
2003___Kris Kin____________[ 11.3___11.3___11.3 ]…..( ??? )…….......[ 13.3___13.3___13.3 ]
2002___High Chaparral______[ 11.4___11.7___11.5 ]…..( ??? )…….......[ 13.5___14.1___13.7 ]
1988___Kahyasi_____________[ 12.1___10.5___11.6 ]…..( ??? )…….......[ 14.9___11.7___13.8 ]
2011___Pour Moi____________[ 11.9___11.7___11.8 ]…..( ??? )…….......[ 14.5___14.1___14.4 ]
2007___Authorized__________[ 12.0___13.3___12.4 ]…..( ??? )…….......[ 14.62___17.3___15.5 ]
1991___Generous____________[ 10.7___n/a___n/a ]…....( ??? )…….......[ 12.1___n/a___n/a ]



Note that Sea The Stars had a sire and damsire with low AWD but he had a dam that won at 12f, as had Masar.
North Light's dam won at 20f.

You may have heard a famous trainer say the best type of horse for the Derby is a 10f horse.
That came from a trainer who was part owner in the biggest stallion farm in Europe.
They can sell stallion services to mare owners more easily if they can convince them that the horse did not win a 12f Derby, it was a 10f Derby.

Posted 24/04/24 on Australian website Thoroughbredvillage.com.au

In the northern hemisphere, Justify has already sired five individual Group 1 winners from his first two crops including the freakish City Of Troy, unbeaten winner of the Dewhurst Stakes last year and favourite to become the first horse since the legendary Nijinsky in 1970 to win the English triple crown comprising the 2000 Guineas, Epsom Derby and English St Leger.
The Coolmore-owned City Of Troy is due to resume racing in the Guineas at Newmarket on May 4.
"Aidan (O'Brien, trainer) has told me they have had shocking weather back home and City Of Troy hasn't had much chance to work on the grass,'' Magnier said.
"But we are really looking forward to his return in the Guineas. On the same day, we have Sierra Leone lining up in the Kentucky Derby so it could be a big weekend for our colts.''

It looks like Los Angeles is being mentioned more and more as a likely Derby winner.
My aim has always been to back high priced horses as they pay more.
I want to looks at favourites in detail and see if they deserve favouritism.

Los Angeles won the Cashel Palace Hotel Derby Trial Stakes (Group 3) 10f (previously the Derrinstown).
These were the other races on the card, weight carried by the winner, furlongs, time against standard.

1:15 3yo+ Maiden ______________9-8____7f___slow 1.62   
1:50 3yo Maiden _______________9-8___12f___slow 0.66 (12.680s/furlong)
2:25 3yo Group 3 fillies ______9-2____8f___slow 5.62   
3:00 3yo+ Group 3 _____________9-9____8f___slow 1.96   
3:35 3yo Group 3 Derby Trial __9-5___10f___slow 1.42 (12.682s/furlong)
4:10 3yo+ Maiden fillies ______9-1___10f___slow 0.36 (12.576s/furlong)
4:45 4yo+ Handicap ____________9-4___10f___slow 2.57   
5:20 Handicap _________________9-12__12f___slow 2.41

You can see the 1:50 12f 3yo maiden winner ran fractionally faster than Los Angeles in his Derby trial.
Also the winner of the 4:10 fillies 10f maiden ran a bit faster than the Derby trial.

The Derby trial had only five runners, two of them Ballydoyle pacemakers.
It was a tight finish with the 5th only 2 1/4 lengths off the winner, and the pacemaker finished second.
To me, it was not an impressive winning performance.

An unusual feature is Los Angeles is inbred 3x3 to Kingmambo (the inbreeding produced two daughters) and he is also inbred 3x4 to Danehill (producing a son and daughter).
My hobby is pedigrees.  Over a hundred years ago it was accepted that close inbreeding is not good, with 3x4 or 4x3 the nearest advisable, and 3x3 too close.
A 3x3 inbreeding in a male runner is not a thing I would do, and if in a pedigree I would prefer if it produced a son and daughter, not two daughters as in Los Angeles.

Yes, there are winners with close inbreeding, but fewer than more remote inbreeding (4x4; 4x5; 5x4; 5x5 ...)

In my data these horses sired by Camelot, sire of Los Angeles, are inbred 3x3 or closer to Kingmambo.
Males: Beowulf; Brooklyn Boy; Hector De Maris; Knightflight (SAF); Los Angeles; Merlin The Wizard; Rocheux; Shuri; Zhang Fei.
Females: Be Happy; Bolleville; Cabo Real; Dazzling Sun; Happy Times; Lissadell; Lot Of Joy; Sanction.
There are five 100+ rated horses in those (incl Los Angeles)

Los Angeles.
Last Derby wnr to win over 10F as a 2Yr Old?
Can't think of any myself.

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Zetland Stakes

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From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Zetland Stakes
Group 3 race
Location    Rowley Mile
Newmarket, England
Race type    Flat / Thoroughbred
Sponsor    Godolphin
Website    Newmarket
Race information
Distance    1m 2f (2,012 metres)
Surface    Turf
Track    Straight
Qualification    Two-year-olds
Weight    9 st 2 lb
Allowances
5 lb for fillies
3Penalties
5 lb for a Group 1 or 2 race win
3 lb for a Group 3 race win
Purse    £60,000 (2021)
1st: £34,026
Zetland Stakes
2023
Royal blue    Royal blue, orange disc, striped sleeves and cap    Violet, white quartered cap
Arabian Crown    Gasper De Lemos    Dallas Star
Previous years
2020-2011
2010-2001
2000-1991
1990-1988
The Zetland Stakes is a Group 3 flat horse race in Great Britain open to two-year-old horses. It is run on the Rowley Mile at Newmarket over a distance of 1 mile and 2 furlongs (2,012 metres), and it is scheduled to take place each year in October.

The event was classed at Listed level until it became an ungraded conditions race in 2007. It returned to Listed level in 2015.[1] It was previously run at Newmarket's last racing fixture of the year but was moved in 2015 to become part of the course's Future Champions Festival. It was upgraded again to Group 3 level from the 2019 running.[2]

Records
Leading jockey since 1980 (3 wins):

Greville Starkey – Grand Tour (1986), Mamaluna (1988), Rock Hopper (1989)
Ryan Moore - Under The Rainbow (2005), Indigo Way (2010), Kew Gardens (2017)
Leading trainer since 1980 (5 wins):

Mark Johnston – Double Trigger (1993), Double Eclipse (1994), Trigger Happy (1997), Empire Day (2006), Hartnell (2013)
Winners since 1980
Year    Winner    Jockey    Trainer    Time
1980    Krug    Bruce Raymond    Michael Jarvis   
1981    Paternoster Row    Geoff Baxter    Bruce Hobbs   
1982    John French    Lester Piggott    Henry Cecil    2:12.39
1983    High Debate    Billy Newnes    Malcolm Jefferson    2:08.14
1984    Ulterior Motive    Willie Carson    John Dunlop    2:09.45
1985    Highland Chieftain    Joe Mercer    John Dunlop    2:04.65
1986    Grand Tour    Greville Starkey    William Hastings-Bass    2:15.40
1987    Upper Strata    Ray Cochrane    Luca Cumani    2:11.13
1988    Mamaluna    Greville Starkey    Guy Harwood    2:08.14
1989    Rock Hopper    Greville Starkey    Michael Stoute    2:07.63
1990    Matahif    Willie Carson    Robert Armstrong    2:05.66
1991    Bonny Scot    Michael Roberts    Luca Cumani    2:05.00
1992    Bob's Return    Philip Robinson    Mark Tompkins    2:06.55
1993    Double Trigger    Jason Weaver    Mark Johnston    2:07.84
1994    Double Eclipse    Jason Weaver    Mark Johnston    2:12.40
1995    Gentilhomme    Richard Quinn    Paul Cole    2:06.87
1996    Silver Patriarch    Pat Eddery    John Dunlop    2:07.53
1997    Trigger Happy    John Carroll    Mark Johnston    2:06.02
1998    Adnaan    Richard Hills    John Dunlop    2:14.78
1999    Monte Carlo    Dane O'Neill    Richard Hannon Sr.    2:11.93
2000    Worthily    John Reid    Mick Channon    2:16.79
2001    Alexander Three D    Michael Hills    Barry Hills    2:07.83
2002    Forest Magic    John Egan    Paul D'Arcy    2:10.96
2003    Fun and Games    Ted Durcan    Mick Channon    2:06.17
2004    Ayam Zaman    Philip Robinson    Michael Jarvis    2:10.53
2005    Under the Rainbow    Ryan Moore    Peter Chapple-Hyam    2:15.93
2006    Empire Day    Kevin Darley    Mark Johnston    2:07.03
2007    Twice Over    Richard Hughes    Henry Cecil    2:05.39
2008    Heliodor    Jimmy Fortune    Richard Hannon Sr.    2:12.40
2009    Take It to the Max    Jimmy Fortune    George M. Moore    2:07.57
2010    Indigo Way    Ryan Moore    Brian Meehan    2:09.65
2011    Mojave    Frankie Dettori    Mahmood Al Zarooni    2:04.99
2012    Restraint of Trade    Silvestre de Sousa    Mahmood Al Zarooni    2:09.69
2013    Hartnell    Joe Fanning    Mark Johnston    2:12.26
2014    Crafty Choice    Richard Hughes    Richard Hannon Sr.    2:10.61
2015    Glamorous Approach    Kevin Manning    Jim Bolger    2:07.08
2016    Coronet    Frankie Dettori    John Gosden    2:02.89
2017    Kew Gardens    Ryan Moore    Aidan O'Brien    2:02.76
2018    Norway    Seamie Heffernan    Aidan O'Brien    2:07.87
2019    Max Vega    Harry Bentley    Ralph Beckett    2:09.50
2020    Lone Eagle    Silvestre de Sousa    Martyn Meade    2:05.45
2021    Goldspur    James Doyle    Charlie Appleby    2:05.76
2022    Flying Honours    William Buick    Charlie Appleby    2:02.53
2023    Arabian Crown    William Buick    Charlie Appleby    2:05.93
See also

THE ONLY 10FURLONG RACE OF SUBSTANCE FOR 2 YEAR OLDS, , no derby winner but some classic winners in there

silver patriarch. nearly, one more stride

God's Window: Do the Gosdens know something we do not? The horse is 85 here. A day out perhaps.

Oaks runners (12 ran) who have not won a Group or Listed race
Finishing positions
9th  Rubies Are Red
11th  Treasure
12th  Seaward


Derby runners who have not won a Group or Listed race
Deira Mile
Euphoric
God's Window
Kamboo
Macduff
Mr Hampstead
Sayedaty Sadaty
Tabletalk
Voyage



Derby runners who have won a Group or Listed race
Ancient Wisdom 
City Of Troy 
Los Angeles
Dallas Star
Ambiente Friendly 
Bellum Justum 
Dancing Gemini

COT is 'evens' (3-places); 1.93 (4-places); 1.63 (5-places).

At the front end of the market, Ambient Friendly is my value bet with COT  a saver. (I would lay it but for the connections, so a saver is a cautious play.) Outside the front end, I have Bellum Justum as an each way play. His win here is very under-rated imo.

This looks like a below average Derby before the race. We might be surprised but I'm expecting an average performance around the 121/122 RPR.

good luck all already on ancient wisdom and went for bellum justum  ew ......put a thread  up on the horse racing forum

Sticking with COT. Draw and conditions not ideal but hope he's just a lot better than this lot.

Different class to this lot.

Wanted to go around again. CLASSSSSSSSSSS

won easily - difficult to explain

Is it?

COT a good winner and well done to anyone who kept the belief. Is he a well above average winner? Well, for me, that was about as good as his Dewhurst win, so it depends how highly people still rate that piece of form. As usual the Irish Derby ought to be a formality. Superstar? Well there's still plenty of time for him to show that. If he can carry all before him in the midsummer all age events then he's a better horse than I thought, and still think at this moment.

Is it?

i'd say so. in 2 successive years a comfortable derby winner has been produced following as bad a prep run as can be imagined. before 2023 when was the last time a derby winner ran so badly in it's last race?

Try listening to the trainer who knows a bit more about the game than the rest of us put together. Too much Ballydoyle hatred on here saying they are always overhyping their horses. Their record shows that the hype is justified on a lot of occasions. Amazes me how little praise they get on here.

Amazes me how little praise they get on here

really? before last year I don't recall any derby winner running so badly in it's previous race. aidan's obviously a great trainer but things like this leave a bad taste

And there were excuses for both horses. You all think AOB talks crap. He told you the reasons.

Serpentine (c): (2yo)10th/11 beaten 16l > (3yo) 5th/18 btn 2.5l > 1st/8 wins by 8l > 1st/16s Derby by 5.5l at 25/1; loses 19 of 20 races afterwards.

Snowfall (f): (2yo) 3/14; 8/9; 1/10; 4/8; 5/8; 9/13; 8/10: (3yo) 1st/7 > 1st/14 Oaks by 16l.

Auguste Rodin (c): 12th/14 2000 Guineas btn 22l > 1st/Derby 9/2.

City Of Troy (c): 9th/11 2000 Guineas btn 17l > 1st/16 Derby 3/1.

And there were excuses for both horses

trainers always have excuses. in this case aidan couldn't decide if it was the stalls at newmarket or a flawed preparation. it can't have been both.

Qualify (f): (3yo) 1000 Guineas 13th/13 btn 41l; Irish 1000 Guineas 10th/13 btn 7l; English Oaks 1st/11 50/1; Irish Derby 6th/8 btn 11.5l.

Not that it could've persuaded me to back him at today's price, but COT did take the eye in the Derby preliminaries. Whereas at Newmarket he looked ordinary before and during the race. My guess is the horse just hadn't come to himself, for want of a better phrase.

Just listen and learn from the master trainer and the Ballydoyle boys A_T. I think they are very transparent. A bit of praise for the performance and ride would be nice to see. Alas we know that won't be coming from certain quarters on here. He galloped all over them and could have lapped them if they had to go any further.

i guess this could be the new strategy for ballydoyle - whose 3yos tend to tail off as the season goes on. leave a bit to work on for the guineas using it as a prep for epsom so the season doesn't last as long

i think none of aidan's derby winners has won a race in europe after august

A bit of praise for the performance and ride would be nice to see

CoT clearly an outstanding horse and the usual top tide from ryan moore - easily the best judge of pace amongst jockeys. just don't ask me to like what the outfit get up to

Auguste Rodin won one last season lol. Don't be lazy now.

What have they "got up to". Are you implying something

You can blame the trainer for not having him fully fit at Newmarket and he has admitted his error but you can't really blame him for last year as there are legitimate excuses. The ground was atrocious and he was knocked into early on and was out the back in a race run at a crawl by Guineas standards.

Auguste Rodin has proved to be very unreliable snice then and seems to have a mind of his own. Sometimes he runs his race and sometimes he is just not interested.

Auguste Rodin won one last season lol. Don't be lazy now.

yes i meant before him. perhaps they're hoping leaving them a bit short for the guineas will shorten the time they have to keep a 3yo on the go.

they'd dearly love to have a sinndar, golden horn, enable, sea the stars, etc. winning at epsom and the arc - the 2 most important turf races

City Of Troy won - that's a fact. However, I do not think Moore rode a good race. He was right at the back with traffic issue; he won because City Of Troy is a much better horse with stamina than Ambiente Friendly.

You can blame the trainer for not having him fully fit at Newmarket and he has admitted his error

he's had this story but also blamed the stalls behaviour - it can't have been both

Nonsense, it was a perfect ride from where he was drawn. He allowed the horse to settle beautifully in a lovely rhythm.

sometimes the gaps come, sometimes they don't - down to luck a lot of the time. what is in the jockey's complete control is judging the pace and ryan moore is the master of that.

High Chaparral won a Breeders Cup Turf as well fyi.I don't think the Arc is of a particular concern to them. Can be run on soft ground at the end of a season and I'm sure that America is of more interest especially with having American Pharoah and Justify on their roster as well as the humongous prize money on offer.

Really looking forward to seeing this horse on proper safe fast ground. I hope true racing fans are also excited.

they believed they had a superstar, they said it last winter, the goat trainer didnt produce it in the gns , doesnt matter if he wins 10 group1 on the trot, hes destroyed his cv, aiden is desperate for a frankel , he blew it simple as, in a 2000 gns he should have won even only 50% fit , he will never be regarded as a d brave, sea the stars and no way frankel

Correct Jack Bauer"24". Rode the perfect race. Only Impossible123 would think he didn't. Clueless.

He's lost once Elisjohn. Give him time for christ sake. Even Dancing Brave lost twice.

High Chaparral won a Breeders Cup Turf as well fyi. I don't think the Arc is of a particular concern to them

I did say europe - turf racing is weaker in the us plus medication can be used to mask a thoroughbred's fragility

the arc ought to be of concern to them - it's the world's most prestigious turf race. tricky to win though if you've primed your horse for epsom although oxx and gosden have both done it twice

Dancing Brave lost twice.

and it's that thunderous win in the arc that cemented his greatness - without that his reputation would be much less

dancing brave was pilot error, guy had him spot onin all his races, i dont count the usa race as relevant , but like i say his trainer had him spot on for craven, gns derby, eclipse kg and arc, the best horse ive seen

they will skip the curragh if they've got any sense it adds nothing for an epsom winner - but they seem to feel obliged to support that race

Dancing Brave was a great horse and beat a great field but he didn't win the Derby and Arc did he. I thought his Derby defeat added to his reputation somewhat  and certainly did not "destroy" his CV in my eyes. So if he wins 10 Group 1s COT's reputation is already destroyed. Utter nonsense.

"I'd say there's no doubt he's the best Derby winner we've had," said O'Brien

For those that believe all O'Brien says, do they agree with this statement? I would guess that most Coolmore fans would say Galileo was his best Derby winner so far? (personally I have him as his previous fastest Derby winner). Are they confidently expecting COT to outshine Galileo's achievements? Admittedly by just adding the expected formality of an Irish Derby to his record and a King George it ought not to be too difficult to match.

aidan said st mark's basilica was the best horse they ever had

Just give the trainer, connections and more importantly the horse some respect. You have just seen a really good performance. Just imagine what he would have done to this lot on faster ground. Quite incredible the Ballydoyle record. Embrace quality, excellence and professionalism.

It was just a good Derby winning performance. Something wins the Derby every year. Some are better than others. No need to get all X Factor style hyperbole until something proves itself excellent.

It's ok if you don't rate him and everybody has a right to an opinion. The only hyperbole I see is the crass anti Ballydoyle brigade that come out with utter nonsense and try to decry a great trainer and a horse that has won 4/5 races. A trainer who is very well mannered and always has time to speak to everyone. Humble in victory as well as defeat. A true professional who deserves all the plaudits he gets from proper racing people and a record that is quite incredible.

"It was just a good Derby winning performance" That's according to you 6 bags of sugar. Other people may have a different view.

Most racing fans are fans of the horses vastly above anything else. Sure, they may have some yards or jockeys they prefer to follow than others, but that's as far as it goes. Arselicking their every move like the most moronic football fan, or partisan political party member would be alien to most of them.

Aiden O'brien,his faith never wavered in the wnr today.
Great trainer.

until last year no Derby winner in living memory has completely flopped in it's race before epsom. now it's happened twice in a row. and no i don't expect the racing media to be publicly discussing this

City of Troy looked so good before the race and was very calm.  By contrast, nearly everything else looked agitated/sweating or just walked awkwardly/stiffly.  Kevin Blake dismissed any stamina doubts about COT with his stride pattern analysis (which had been spot on in the Oaks). Then Michael Tabor comes on and says that COT has a much better chance than Illinois and that he has backed City of Troy.   Well, in the space of 10 minutes, I decided not to be a layer, after all, and greened up for a small profit.
But it is still too early to say whether he is AOB's greatest as the opposition in the Derby was weaker than normal and most didn't look right before the race.
I've no complaints about AOB or Coolmore because they put their reputations on the line over this horse and he delivered for them.

It's ok if you don't rate him

I'm not decrying him as a poor Derby winner. All along I've said his 2yo best was good enough to be an up to scratch winner. He proved that yesterday, despite me being highly doubtful after his Guineas run. I'm questioning whether he is an outstanding Derby winner, and on the evidence so far I don't believe he is.

Other people may have a different view.

I'm still waiting to hear it. How much better was that win compared with other Epsom winners? Is he going to prove an exceptional 3yo? Will he outperform Galileo's achievements? Is he really O'Brien's best Derby winner?

He galloped all over them and could have lapped them if they had to go any further

All we've had so far is this post race comment. Which as the horse is never going to be asked to race over 2 miles is nothing but mealy-mouthed piffle.

And yet, nobody has called put the ride on the runner-up.
I do not think for one minute he would have beaten City Of Troy,  but he was motionless when Moore was driving on.
Huge error in my opinion.

Nothing wrong with the ride,horse not good enough.
Just because it was Havlin.The ride gave the horse
every chance of winning the race.

As a backer of AF with a saver on COT, I am confident that the best horse won, and might well have won by further over further. However, as Figgis said "It was just a good Derby winning performance" which has been given a RPR of 125 (+1 PB), somewhat higher than I have it on the clock.

AOB was totally vindicated, but to say that COT is his best Derby winner is not born out (yet) by the evidence using ratings and times. However, that is not to say that eventually  the horse may not prove to be his best. We shall see. I have not seen the horse in the flesh, but from comments from those who have , he may be a better performer than looker. A Mill Reef rather than a Nijinsky?

As a 2yo "he never gets tired"
2000 Guineas "he got tired"
Derby "the jockey can't pull him up"

Just to be clear, I am not stubbornly being negative about COT being a great horse just to back up my earlier view of him. Before the Guineas I was sceptical about Timeform's rating of Notable Speech. After seeing what he did at Newmarket I now think they've underrated him and he's the best 3yo miler I've seen since Kingman. I don't care about proving a past opinion right, it's getting it right next time that I'm concerned with. We will see if he lives up to my expectations.

I thought the Dewhurst pointed to COT being up to winning an average Derby if staying. I just didn't see how it made him a potential great. I don't think anyone can say the bare form/time of the Derby marks him down as outstanding. People might say he was winning within himself and is capable of much more. That's fair enough, maybe they'll be proved right, but that's not how I see it currently.

For me, it's not just about the level a horse shows when winning the Derby, it's about their profile and the progress they've made from 2 to 3, and the likelihood of more to come. For instance, I had Motivator and Galileo on the same Derby winning figure. When Motivator failed to win again people started to revise their earlier high view of him. In my opinion that would be as nonsensical as putting down Carlos Alcaraz's Wimbledon win because he hasn't hit those highs since. Motivator was a good Derby winner but crucially hadn't improved from 2 to 3. He then deteriorated. Galileo showed he had improved from 2 to 3 and went on to back up his Derby form.

Getting back to COT, I actually have the Derby as his best performance yet, up 2lbs from the Dewhurst. However, I wouldn't call that significant improvement, and believe it was due to the nature of how fast the race was run and how he was ridden, rather than any physical progress on his part. The Irish Derby is usually only a Gp1 in name only nowadays, and most years just a training exercise for a Coolmore Epsom winner. But when we get to the proper Gp1s I think COT is more likely to be a Motivator than a Galileo.

I welcome any contradictory views that think he's going to be a bit special.

"I welcome any contradictory views that think he's going to be a bit special."

Aiden O'Brien 

What I thought about it can be read on pages 255,256,257 of the paperback edition of Men and Horses I Have Known (publ 1924) by the Hon George Lambton.

"I welcome any contradictory views that think he's going to be a bit special."

Aiden O'Brien

Kincsem, well as all of us punting Grasshoppers should be listening and learning from "the master" we can take it as a given

I have not seen the horse in the flesh, but from comments from those who have , he may be a better performer than looker

Sandown, I certainly don't regard myself as an expert paddock watcher, and was only watching on tv. My only learning about paddock watching came from the often maligned Nick Mordin, which boiled down was basically keep it simple and go with your overall striking impression of how the horse looks. I did read another book by some Aussie bloke I forget the name of but it didn't leave me with any lasting insight that I could use.

From the tv screen I did think COT looked particularly well before the race and while he may not have been massively imposing he did stand out in that regard from the rest. Whereas on seeing Ancient Wisdom on screen my heart sank, along with my bet as it turned out

but does aidan rate him better than st mark's basilica?

Justify = yes.

I think it's too early to say COT is a very good horse just on his Derby performance until he runs against older proven horses. The placed horses eg Ambiente Friendly and Los Angeles run out easy winners in the King George & QE2 or St Leger respectively then it's too early to heap more superlatives on COT yet.

An interesting English Derby double is that Deep Impact, the sire of the 2023 winner, Auguste Rodin, and Justify, the sire
of the 2024 winner, were both disqualified from a race during their racing careers when a prohibited substance was found.

Deep Impact was disqualified after finishing 3rd in the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe (ipratropium).
Justify was disqualified after winning the Santa Anita Derby (scopolamine).


Deep Impact's Wiki page says he tested positive (does not mention disqualification).  A Japanese website says Deep Impact "did not finish".
The Los Angeles Superior Court judge ordered the California Horse Racing Board stewards to disqualify Justify from the 2018 Santa Anita Derby victory.

Figgis

ConFIRMation Bias v ConFORMation Bias?  Do we see what we have heard? Do we believe what we hear? Do we see what we want to believe?


The waters can get very muddy

Sandown, I think when you start out following racing it's only natural to believe a large amount of what you hear. Even if a lot of it turns out to be balls, you are listening to people with more experience than yourself. As the years go by you learn to still keep an open mind about what you hear but not to take it as read until you've seen it. The same goes with your own preconceptions.

For instance, on watching the Guineas I assumed that I'd overrated Rosallion and Notable Speech, being on the inexperienced side, had probably just put up an average Guineas winning performance. However, when analysing the results I didn't let that preconception stop me from rating him the best winner for years. Which is still to be proved of course.

Before the Derby when the tv cameras went into the paddock I expected to see the same fairly ordinary looking COT and was surprised that he took the eye as much as he did. Not that that necessarily meant he was going to run well. Similarly with Ancient Wisdom, both Appleby (who often talks up his runners before they run terribly) and Buick had said that the horse had come on a lot from the Dante. I expected to see that evidenced in the paddock and what I saw went against my preconceptions.

I admit that when analysing times on a racecard it can still be a battle. As whether you're analysing form without times or with them the whole exercise has to be based on what horses have done before (preconceptions) and what improvement you think they might be capable of (which may include having to take on board trainer opinion). It gets easier with more experience but not in every case.

Looking at some of the after Derby analysis I was surprised to see a few pundits come to the same conclusion that if Los Angeles had been ridden with more restraint he would've been fighting out the finish with COT. I'm sure anyone with any sense is fully aware that if a horse is ridden inefficiently it will impact negatively on performance. It's the extent of some of the suppositions that I disagree with and what I consider to be ridiculously high upgrades.

It's a bit like a few years ago when there were people saying weight doesn't matter. And that weight should not be taken into account when compiling speed figures. This was absolute nonsense, but it doesn't take away from the fact that weight was, and still is in some quarters, overvalued. I remember when the official handicappers were calculating on the basis of 2 pounds per length at a mile. This was a significant overestimation of the effect of weight.

Back to the case for Los Angeles. I have already given credit to those who calculated that Notable Speech was up to being involved at the business end of the Guineas. However, it wasn't a massive shock. The horse was unbeaten and still unexposed with a clear turn of foot. Visually impressive while beating up lesser opponents in the manner that he ought to have been capable of better. If Los Angeles is ridden more patiently next time and proves himself up to potentially winning a proper Gp1 (not the St Leger) I will be far more impressed by those saying he can do just that , as I remain highly doubtful presently.

Figgis

Confirmation bias is a problem for all of us. We most definitely see and hear what we want to see and hear. The same with conformation bias. We will upgrade and downgrade chances on what we see in the paddock and on the way to post. And  I accept that I can make mistakes  especially in this area. Sometimes I may be proved right but mostly I have been proved wrong. For example, horses with daisy cutting actions can run well on soft ground. Horses with large feet may run well on soft, but there again that isn't always true.

The same is true with market movements. Drifters win and heavily backed horses lose.

The ONLY safe proven method is to rely on the proven metrics of times, weight, comparatives, ratings.

I was in the States for the 2 weeks prior to Epsom, and I had no strong views prior about the English and French Derbies until I returned. Like everyone else, I had no strong opinions about COT getting back to his best other than it was a guess either way. I figured that if he was back to his best it would have been reflected in the market. It wasn't. I had AF as the most likely winner on my figures without COT, so a cover bet on COT was the only way I could go but with only the minimum of confidence, with something also on a longshot.

As for Los Vegas, on his Derby performance, my opinion is that he will never beat COT at 10f,12f,14f. In fact, I don't see him beating AF either. He is not fast enough. Maybe at 16f and on soft ground he will improve to win a G1.

In France on Sunday, I had really good figures on Look De Vega and Fast Tracker. The paddock played no part , the paddock judges were not an influence, and I was 50% right. Fast Tracker over-raced and LDV put up a performance that for me was better than COT, and that is saying something. We have 2 very good horses for the season. LDV will no doubt be trained for the Arc whilst COT may have other targets. Either way, they are both capable of more imo.

The same is true with market movements. Drifters win and heavily backed horses lose

Of course that's true whatever the reason for a horse being positive or negative in the market. But it still needs to be acknowledged that the reason for a horse's strength or weakness has a bearing on that. Take the Oaks, the fav Ylang Ylang was tipped by Timeform and the RP as far as I recall. On the face of things YY seemed the obvious choice and there had been no major challengers emerging from the trials. Tabor when interviewed said he hadn't backed her, which didn't surprise me at all. She was pretty much fav by default. I thought she was underpriced but given the factors I've mentioned I could see why the market made her the price she was.

Contrast that with the support for Godolphin's Dance Sequence. I had her Listed win last year good enough to show the form she put up in the Oaks, but on her latest two efforts I wasn't backing her to show it. She wasn't widely tipped up. I don't for one moment believe the big move for her was just a bunch of like minded people with large wallets taking a punt that she was value if returning to her best and staying the trip. There is no doubt in my mind that the move was largely due to what she'd been showing at home in recent days.

Do horses that are well backed due to going well at home always perform well? Of course not, but you can be sure that they usually perform better than those that don't have that level of yard confidence.

I figured that if he was back to his best it would have been reflected in the market

Personally I thought COT was very well supported considering the Guineas run.

[i]Personally I thought COT was very well supported considering the Guineas run.[/i]

Its a moot point, but I thought that if COT was back to his 2yr best, for certain, then his price would have been more like 3.0 or shorter.

But even the very best yards can't know for certain. Moore said that after the Guineas they didn't know what to expect. How could they? All they knew was that they fancied him for the Guineas but he didn't show up. All the signs were still good before the Derby, but he might not have showed up again. One thing is for sure, with the O'Brien yard in particular, if the signs hadn't been great at home he would've drifted to more like double those odds for the Derby.

As to the French winners on Sunday. I don't have Look De Vega's win quite as high as COT's Derby win but he is the one I'd want to follow for future events. His stamina for 12f is still unproven, but if this was still the old days where the French would often send their best to the Irish Derby I'd be wanting to back him against COT. I also reckon Aventure would've won our Oaks fairly comfortably. For me Economics is still marginally the best 3yo middle distance runner I've seen this season.

I can see both City Of Troy & Ambiente Friendly beating Economics if they meet.
Ancient Wisdom certainly didn't advertise the Dante form.

He certainly didn't, but that still depends on whether you think he performed equally in both races. I don't.

I think Ancient Wisdom and Dance Sequence both inmates of Appleby did not act on the track. But, there was only one winner in City Of Troy whose next race will either be The Eclipse at Sandown or The Irish Derby; Los Angeles will go where City Of Troy does not, according to his trainer.

I just watched the race again. The injection of pace from the back (3rd last) in the last 4 furlongs was very impressive; 3rd last to 3rd sluicing thro' on the inside next to the rails just infront of Ambiente Friendly - he was ridden like a stayer. Ambiente Friendly was going the best, with Havlin mottionless onboard.

Ambiente Friendly gave chase, and managed to get within a length of City Of Troy; the latter went again and had 3 lengths spare at the line.

I don't follow Ballydoyle blindly Figgass and watch your language when it's directed at me. Great picks for the Classics yet again.

Fallen Angel       1000G Sunk without trace
Rosallion          2000G Well done got a 2nd there
Ylang Ylang        OAKS Sunk without trace
Ancient Wisdom     Derby Sunk without trace

And you think Aidan talks crap.

Ylang Ylang        OAKS Sunk without trace

I didn't back Ylang Ylang, Must Try Harder.

supporting a stable like you would a football team is unusual behaviour

Apologies, you backed Secret Satire that finished 10th in the Oaks 4 places behind Ylang Ylang. I don't need to try harder with you.

Who is your stalker, Fig?
Very odd behaviour.

The bickering between 'Try My Best' and 'Figgis' is infantile, disruptive and unnecessary on this platform. Take a step back, please!

Brandyontherocks

Yep, real normal . The forum's own Martha Scott.

Anytime you want a tipping contest six bags let me know.