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.Marksman.
22 Oct 23 13:32
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Date Joined: 13 Jul 10
| Topic/replies: 1,791 | Blogger: .Marksman.'s blog
At this stage it looks like Aidan has plenty of ammunition to fire at the Derby.  City of Troy looks the standout, but whereas the Guineas is often a confirmation of the top 2yo form, the Derby is more for the relatively later maturing types who may only have given hints of future ability late in their 2yo season.  Interesting races are the 2 group 1s at St Cloud today (Sunday) and the G1 Futurity Trophy  at Doncaster on Saturday.
The first of the St Cloud races was won by Los Angeles benefitting from a good ride from Soumillon who put him on the golden highway of the stands rail.   This could have been the difference between him and Illinois (3rd).  Los Angeles is a big green colt and will have improvement next year and could be pointed towards one of the Derby's next year.

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Replies: 225
By:
Figgis
When: 22 Oct 23 13:56
City Of Troy is the most ridiculous ante post price I've seen for the Derby in years.
By:
.Marksman.
When: 22 Oct 23 14:19
Agree, so much happens between the Guineas and the Derby that 2/1 about any horse for the Derby at this stage is always too short.
By:
penzance
When: 22 Oct 23 14:22
Billy's going 6/4,race is 10 months away.
By:
Figgis
When: 22 Oct 23 15:19
Auguste Rodin had better prospects after winning at Doncaster last year and he was 4/1. Anyone going in at these prices on COT needs help.
By:
Jack Bauer "24"
When: 22 Oct 23 16:57
Auguste Rodin was available at 7/1 after winning at Doncaster.
By:
Figgis
When: 22 Oct 23 18:04
JB, I meant he was short as 4/1, but that's from memory, could be wrong.
By:
Jack Bauer "24"
When: 22 Oct 23 18:13
7/1 was with Betfair and Paddy Power and didn't last long. I think you are right, he was down to around 4/1 with many firms in the following days.

I like City of Troy for the Derby but 5/2 at this stage is ridiculous.
By:
Figgis
When: 22 Oct 23 20:58
I can see City Of Troy being another Celtic Swing scenario. Timeform rated him 138 as a 2yo. Some of that race standardisation methodology can churn out a right load of bull. And now we have sectional upgrading to skew things even more.
By:
impossible123
When: 22 Oct 23 21:16
Any horse with form trained by AOB will suffer from antepost price strangulation, and with City Of Troy a Superlative and Dewhurst winner (with authority) his price here is a puking 5/2 (best); if winning the 2000G (price is only 'evens') with authority (again) he'd be 'evens' or possibly odds-on.

Back City Of Troy now or his non-AOB protagonists with plenty of value assured.
By:
ImSoLuckyLucky!
When: 17 Feb 24 10:56
Times reporting COT could go for the Travers after the DErbi
Bit different approach
Shocked
By:
impossible123
When: 18 Feb 24 19:04
If City of Troy is on a hattrick post 2000G and Epsom Derby The Leger will be his next race for a Triple Crown.
By:
truehoncho
When: 04 Mar 24 13:53
I see he is as low as 6/4 and 9/4 best currently. It seems very strange to me.
By:
unclepuncle
When: 20 Mar 24 13:00
While City Of Troy may prove to be unbeatable I am a huge fan of Arabian Crown for this and have been nibbling at 14/1 and 12/1 with free bets, plus double that with some epic odds boosts, all winter.
Handled the undulations and turns of Salisbury nicely (yes I know it's the other way round) and the way he came down the dip in the Zetland was hugely impressive.
By:
unclepuncle
When: 01 Apr 24 17:29
Arabian Crown has doubled in price in the last 24 hours - presumably met a setback.Cry
By:
unclepuncle
When: 01 Apr 24 17:29
Arabian Crown has doubled in price in the last 24 hours - presumably met a setback.Cry
By:
FOYLESWAR
When: 08 Apr 24 11:44
a few of aidens derby hopes didnt set the world on fire over the weekend in the ballysax won by 50/1 shot dallas star ,city of troy too short and yet to race further than 7f so far ,could win the gns and shorten further but hey ho! i have backed aidens  GROSVENOR SQUARE  by galileo and plenty of stamina in the bloodline 2 from 3 last season and started of over 8 1/2 f winning on debut at galway went off fav and won cosily ,stepped up in class just 11 days later and ran well but was btn just under 3l  by the well regarded deepone at the curragh in a group 2 , that was a promising  run for one who lacked exp , turned out a month later in a group 3 at the curragh he won  easily  by just over 4l on heavy ground stamina should not be a problem and interesting aiden was keen to get 3 runs into him in under 2 months ,no idea where he stands in the pecking order behind city of troy who is the no 1 at the moment but can be backed at an each way price .
SELECTION EPSOM DERBY  GROSVENOR HOUSE 25/1 EW .GOOD LUCK OPINIONS ENCOURAGED.
By:
FOYLESWAR
When: 08 Apr 24 12:11
GROSVENOR HOUSE ^^^
By:
unclepuncle
When: 17 Apr 24 19:31
Arabian Crown worked well at Newmarket today and is being aimed at the Sandown Classic trial.Happy
By:
unclepuncle
When: 26 Apr 24 15:39
Happy with that.Happy
By:
LoyalHoncho
When: 26 Apr 24 19:12
Well done.  Good post.
By:
impossible123
When: 06 May 24 16:00
Btw City Of Troy is this way bound providing everything is good in the next two weeks, according to AOB.
By:
sageform
When: 07 May 24 12:14
If last year is any guide, COT will get smashed in the market and trot up at Epsom.
By:
impossible123
When: 07 May 24 13:07
'sageform', I hope you're correct. But, I've written off my antepost vouchers, and multiples. I'm expecting the horse to miss the race or unlikely to ever race again for (another) reason. Also, City Of Troy is unlike Auguste Rodin; the former is small, the latter has genuine excuses in the 2000G eg atrocious ground/ran into his stablemate in the race.
By:
FOYLESWAR
When: 07 May 24 16:18
i may be proved wrong but after showing that speed as a 2yo i cant see city of troy staying 12f  .
By:
penzance
When: 07 May 24 16:33
O'Brien's got them to bounce back before.You can't back him for the Derby
after that performance though,surely?
By:
impossible123
When: 07 May 24 16:52
Last year Auguste Rodin drifted out to 8/1 and more (from 7/4), then backed down to 9/2 on Epsom Day. But, Auguste Rodin had genuine excuses for his dismal run in the same race. However, this time i think only connections of City Of Troy can retain faith in the horse post so many "far-fetched" excuses.
By:
impossible123
When: 08 May 24 19:22
What's happened to Ancient Wisdom? Is he engaged in any Derby Trial? I think 14/1 is a betting proposition.

I also like Henry Longfellow? He's 13/8 for the French 2000g this saturday, and 5/1 for their Derby. However, I think AOB would run more than just City Of Troy here given his way below par run in the 2000G, and the commercial value of this race.

Henry Longfellow at 14/1 is another betting proposition for this race.
By:
unitedbiscuits
When: 09 May 24 16:21
Just watched an ITV segue of Derby finishes. Mostly s**t. Looks like a weak Gp1. Any defence?
By:
Figgis
When: 09 May 24 16:45
As strong as it's ever been. As a race confined to 3yos over 12f (with most running over the distance for the first time) run in early June, how strong should it be?
By:
impossible123
When: 09 May 24 17:18
Apart from Golden Horn those since had been pants. Most of them were nothing but hyped including Auguste rodin last year. When will we see another Golden Horn or Sea The Stars?

Talking about hype City Of Troy is at a ridiculous 3/1 fav. The horse bombed bigtime last weekend; layers get ready, money to be made.
By:
NonVintage
When: 09 May 24 17:54
Agreed Figgis...

And at Epsom, of all places. History aside, a better test of the best 3yo middle-distance horses would be to have a race about a month later, over 1m2f, at a flat track, like Sandown perhaps.
By:
elisjohn
When: 10 May 24 10:20
truth is Coolmore imho have spoilt the derby and for me flat racing and now Mullins doing the same thing on the jumps
By:
impossible123
When: 10 May 24 14:17
A choice between AOB and MrvMullins I'd have the former anytime, why? With the former one has a pretty good idea which races his charge/s is/are going; the later switcheroo aplenty.
By:
penzance
When: 10 May 24 14:58
We get this most years in that the Derby's weak or no good.Truth is
nobody Knows yet,not even been run.Give the race & horses a chance.
By:
impossible123
When: 10 May 24 15:51
Unless City Of Troy (2000G winner, 2nd and 3rd not running) or Ghostwriter wins it convincingly it will most likely be another much of a muchness Derby (again). This is without doubt.
By:
Figgis
When: 10 May 24 16:01
Why isn't the Derby winner extraordinary every year? I would've thought the answer was in the question.
By:
ImSoLuckyLucky!
When: 10 May 24 16:35
Ghostwriter going for the French derbi
i thought
Silly
By:
impossible123
When: 10 May 24 17:16
^^ If so, a star needs to appear from the other impending Derby trials; Chester was a non-event, imo.

I'm still not convinced City Of Troy will show or can atone for his 2000G demise. I think AOB may even run a battalion, if he does run. However, if Henry Longfellow wins convincingly this sunday at Longchamp he'd be in the mix despite the timeline.
By:
impossible123
When: 11 May 24 15:26
All things being equal and if City Of Troy and Henry Longfellow are absent Ambient Friendly could be challenging for favouritism. He won emphatically at Lingfield today.
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