Horse Antepost
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On the Voltigeur win I have Continuous up 11lbs and very close to an average Leger winning mark. When a horse appears to show improvement while being held up in rear off a fast pace there's always the possibility that it was how the race panned out that showed the horse in a better light, rather than genuine progression. To my eyes, however, there didn't appear any luck involved. After that race I was expecting Continuous to start much shorter on the day so I'm pleasantly surprised at the available price, and have backed him.
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Agree with that.
Good luck |
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Ta brilliant again figgis you left it late but i was watching for it. Hope you both filled your filled your boots. Well played brandy.
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Great write up again, Fig
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Cheers, he did it well.
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wd
GL. 3 replies says it all. |
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well done
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Didn’t check this forum, good write up, thought it was best bet of he day, WD hope you had a big bet , just remember the horse winning easily LTO full of running
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Easy afterwards but it was a knocking bet tbf.
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Well done Figgis - not a difficult race to watch for you.
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Yes. Bravo, Figgis.
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Racing form study is a bit like history.
I heard once that the definition of a historian is someone who can’t tell you what’ll happen next week but 10 years later will explain how it was inevitable. |
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Priceless RC.....
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Ta all. Surprised again that RP and Timeform have him as an above average winner, as I have him below average. Actually I have his Voltigeur win as the better performance. I won't be backing him for the Arc.
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King George runners in the arc, achieved much higher ratings than continuous, thought it might have a chance, always liked ace impact, haven’t made up my mind yet
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AOB has 1/2 the remaining field eg Los Angeles, Illinois and Jan Brueghel. Will he really run all of these? I'd be amazed if he runs Los Angeles and Illinois together.
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AOB continues to ruin Flat racing courtesy of his monopoly on the Classics. Totally uninteresting and uninspiring no matter how much ITV Racing try to talk up City Of Troy et al, and now Auguste Rodin ahead of the KG, for which AOB has half the field of declarations as well. And why doesn't anyone in the racing world question how his horses clearly run under 'team' instructions in these middle distance G1s which I thought wasn't allowed. Miss the days of all the top Newmarket stables invariably producing G1-rated horses. In the hope of an upset, I like the Burrows horse for the Leger.
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AOB has the 1st 3 in the betting ie Los Angeles, Illinois and Jan Brueghel. Los Angeles is a shade fav; he's been in his box since winning the weak Irish Derby. He's also friendless (here) in the betting more so after Jan Brueghel winning the Gordon Stakes earlier at Goodwood; the latter is into 11/2, and according to his trainer he'd come straight here.
Will all 3 turn up? Very unlikely in my book; Jan Brueghel is the most definite of the 3. But, will he beat Ancient Wisdom (AW), if AW turns up? I'm not convinced. |
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Los Angeles has been supplemented at a cost of £20k for The Voltigeur usually a good pointer for this race. He's to give between 3/5 libs to the rest though; best price is 6/5.
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There's clearly uncertainty where Los Angeles will be heading post winning The Voltigeur despite beating Illinois and giving 3lbs. As such, the market is indicating Illinois is the most likely participant; his price is as short as 2/1 fav but generally 5/2; Jan Brueghel is next best at 4/1. Los Angeles is 5/1, and will appreciate the longer trip too.
Personally I do not see Illinois as a good thing - Los Angeles is. And, Jan Brueghel is the unknown with undefined potential as yet. AOB has indicated 3 could take part, but which 3? |
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I think illinois ran a great Leger trial at York last week, and will be their number 1 in the final classic.
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Unlike last year with Continuous I don't think any of the O'Brien runners go into this having run to a level already good enough to win an average Leger. The Irish Derby was below average and LA only ran to a similar mark when winning the Voltigeur. I took the odds on about Jan Brueghel when receiving a lump of weight in the Gp3 at the Curragh. I wasn't on him last time where, for me, he didn't show any real progression. With only three runs behind him he's arguably the one still open to the most improvement but as it stands I have him the worst of the top O'Brien four. I had a few quid on Grosvenor Square at big odds for the Irish Derby, but he still hadn't come to hand at that stage. It's difficult to get a true handle on what he achieved last time, with there only being one other race on the round course that day for comparison. I've rated it that he ran right up to his 2yo best, a figure that would've seen him going close to winning the Irish Derby.
In my view the only horse still left in the field who has shown Leger winning ability is Ancient Wisdom. He was showing regressive form earlier in the year but appeared to be back on track last time. He didn't achieve that much in a slowly run affair but if he runs, gets his ground, and connections think he's back to his old form he's the only one that would interest me for a bet. |
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I think if LA takes his chance here he'll win with a bit to spare given his Derby form and the step-up in distance. The market will tell which are running or not.
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all the money on here has been on grosvenor sq in last week
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Grosvenor Square could be the hare of AOB. I'm not a backer.
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will be the hare, but will they catch him ?
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I'd think so in this group. On a line with LA I think Illinois and Jan Brueghel have got his measure. The former ran a cracker against LA (giving 2lbs); the latter beat Bellum Justum. The up in distance will help both too.
I think Sunway could be the main danger to the AOB's charges. He's been running well in top company. |
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I backed Jan Brueghel at 16s in June, but nave no expectations.
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Beckett's supplemented You Got To Me,makes the race a bit more interesting.
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With Ancient Wisdom a non runner the race looks much too difficult for me. On their best form I have very little between Illinois, Grosvenor Square, Sunway and YGTM with her allowance. I also wouldn't have a clue which of those is most likely to run to form or even improve on Saturday. I might lay Jan Brueghel if he gets much shorter and they all run, which means he'll probably improve another 10lbs and win easily
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3RD gives 'em a £25K+ profit.
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With You Got To Me supplemented (she's the highest rated) will AOB reconsider running Los Angeles here to ensure this race is Ballydoyle bound? I think You Got To Me is an equal to Content, a horse comparable to Illinois; a 3lb sex allowance could be the deciding factor for the former. Also, Los Angeles is only running in the Irish Champion as a prep for a possible tilt in The Arc.
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AOB has 5 in a field of 10 runners here. What is the point of declaring Los Angeles with 3 principals of his heading the betting market? Even if one comes out there are 2 left; Euphonic is definitely the pacesetter here.
I think Los Angeles is than a possible given the supplementation of You Got Me. She's comparable to Content. |
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i can seriously see the day when he will have every runner in a uk group1 in the near future
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Who will Ryan ride Saturday. Rodin at Leopardstown or 1 of the ledger horses. Probably Illinois IMO out of the 3.
Im thinking Rodin due to potential covering costs, if he wins can see him heading to Japan cup, being the last prodigy of deep impact, this would surely be the best for the long term financial benefit. But what do I know, Im a guesser and a fanboy of Aiden (the genius) |
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Lordon's on Illinois.Moores @ Leopardstown.
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Yep, Moore on Auguste Rodin. I think he'll beat Economics. I also think unless Auguste Rodin or Luxembourg is an absentee Los Angeles will not run at Leopardstown. I cannot see AOB running 3 when Los Angeles is his best chance of winning The Leger.
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Los Angeles not running in Leger, 7 declared
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Illinois out to 3/1
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Very well done, Saxon
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