2000 Guineas...

Do you think it may be possible, with the likes of
Henry Longfellow and Diego Velazquez in the wings,
they may try City Of Troy in the Breeders Cup Juvenile?
With a look at the Kentucky Derby?

^^ City Of Troy could go to America, I guess. It will also help the owners' bookies' friends. However, AOB intimated City Of Troy could be the one to do a Triple Crown next season.

Did we not hear that last season too?

City Of Troy and Henry Longfellow have been declared for the National Stakes on sunday; Moore on the former Heffernan on the latter. Is the race nrnb or antepost today?

I have City Of Troy already good enough to win an average/decent Guineas. That doesn't mean he will, of course, he still has to get there in the same form. Difficult seeing him beaten today, but if he is, I suspect it would be more about him recovering from that last performance than any of these improving past him.

In the absence of COT it was still a decent performance from the winner. Nevertheless I have him half a stone behind COT at this stage, and even if COT doesn't make the event I reckon Henry Longfellow would still need to find around another 5lbs to take an average Guineas. However, if he is going to be more of a 12f horse then I think today's performance would make him the one to beat in the Derby.

Will today bring a big shake-up to the 2024 2000 Guineas ? With all the warnings from AP prior to River Tiber last time out in France we can surely expect a much better effort today. Will it be good enough to beat Vandeek ? I certainly hope so. Vandeek had a hard race in France to catch that classy filly. Now dryer ground and hopefully AP has the River back on song, what's not to like about him.

AOB has a double-grip on this with City Of Troy and Henry Longfellow. I do not think they will take each other on here. I think Henry Longfellow is a reserve, otherwise France 2000G.

Difficult to understand how Timeform have HL above COT, albeit by only 1lb. It doesn't stack up on form and certainly not on times. I have HL half a stone behind his stablemate. Hawk Wing was undoubtedly faster than Rock Of Gibraltar as a 2yo but ROG improved past him at 3, so there's no saying that the same couldn't happen again, but it seems more unlikely than likely.

I said City Of Troy is already good enough to win an average Guineas but that was being cautious, as if I go with my most likely rating he's already good enough to have won any recent Guineas barring Frankel's. I'm still not 100% confident about that, as in a race of lightly raced 2yos it's possible that his main opponents ran below par and the others just weren't very good.

Nevertheless, nothing that has been out again from that card has made me want to downgrade the performance. I could still be wrong, and I've seen many 2yos regress after putting up a big performance, so normally backing odds on 2yos doesn't make much appeal, but I'm on this one.

It was very good bet to win in the distance markets, know it was 4/5 to win by a length, could easily of taken the next price to win by more than a length, hit the 100TS lto and one it battered by 6 lengths went and won a group 2 next time out, as far as form goes doesn’t get better than that. I’m on break so didn’t back it, picked out a treble today, see if Arabian crown wins in 3.15, last runner in that treble, first two won

Im not a time expert by any means, however on 1st glance looks pretty impressive. Last 3 furlongs look good @ side of applebys easy winners.

Who is this twayt who always puts two stars on my posts

Patrick Moore

How does one put stars on a post? I do not even know how to use emojis. Is there an emoji to denote a prat?

I think The Dewhurst was run in just under 2 secs above normal despite soft ground with him doing the donkey work.

impossible, to get the emoji of your choice click on the smiley face below the box you type in.  Then hover your mouse over an emojis and the tool tip will come up telling you what the emoji means.
When you are ready, just click your chosen emoji.
I give roadrunner 2 stars because he has a motor bike, otherwise I'd just give him 1.

So it’s you always puts to two stars on my posts, don’t read the @@@ you write never have done

Marksman

'roadrunner',

Yes, success finally. Guys and gals, it's been a good week. To back City Of Troy at 16/1 and 20/1 for Newmarket and Epsom respectively was jolly opportunistic; Ylang Ylang at 6/1 Fillies Mile and Ace Impact 7/1 (ARC) an icing on the cake. The $64k question is will it last?

The times on Friday and Saturday at Newmarket were on average only a couple of seconds below standard.
Would it be fare to suggest the ground was not that soft?

Brandy, Friday it was good ground for the earlier races, bordering good to soft later. Saturday good the whole card.

Although there was a tailwind on both days speeding up the times, so that needs to be allowed for. Still. no worse than soft side of good / good to soft both days.

Thanks Figg.

Sent you a message.

These are the best Racing Post 2yo topseed figures of the season so far (complete up to end of Saturday).

TopSpeed	Horse	Placing	Date	Course	Distance	Going
107	ANCIENT WISDOM  FR	1	2023-10-14	NEWMARKET	1609	SOFT
104	PORTA FORTUNA  IRE	1	2023-09-30	NEWMARKET	1207	GOOD TO FIRM
104	BIG EVS  IRE	1	2023-06-21	ASCOT	1005	GOOD TO FIRM
103	VANDEEK  GB	1	2023-09-30	NEWMARKET	1207	GOOD TO FIRM
103	LAKE FOREST  GB	1	2023-08-25	YORK	1207	GOOD TO FIRM
102	VANDEEK  GB	1	2023-08-20	DEAUVILLE FR	1200	VERY SOFT
102	CITY OF TROY  USA	1	2023-10-14	NEWMARKET	1408	SOFT
101	YLANG YLANG  GB	1	2023-10-13	NEWMARKET	1609	SOFT
101	HENRY LONGFELLOW  IRE	1	2023-08-19	CURRAGH IRE	1408	GOOD TO YIELDING
100	VANDEEK  GB	1	2023-08-03	GOODWOOD	1207	SOFT
100	RAMATUELLE  USA	1	2023-07-16	CHANTILLY FR	1200	GOOD
100	JOHANNES BRAHMS  GB	2	2023-08-25	YORK	1207	GOOD TO FIRM
100	HENRY LONGFELLOW  IRE	1	2023-09-10	CURRAGH IRE	1408	GOOD TO YIELDING
100	DARNATION  IRE	1	2023-09-14	DONCASTER	1609	SOFT
100	CRIMSON ADVOCATE  USA	1	2023-06-21	ASCOT	1005	GOOD
100	CITY OF TROY  USA	1	2023-07-15	NEWMARKET JULY	1408	GOOD TO SOFT
99	SHUWARI  IRE	2	2023-10-13	NEWMARKET	1609	SOFT
99	RELIEF RALLY  IRE	2	2023-06-21	ASCOT	1005	GOOD
99	INQUISITIVELY  GB	1	2023-10-13	NEWMARKET	1005	SOFT
99	DANCING GEMINI  IRE	1	2023-09-15	DONCASTER	1413	SOFT
98	PEARLS AND RUBIES  USA	2	2023-09-30	NEWMARKET	1207	GOOD TO FIRM
98	FALLEN ANGEL  GB	1	2023-09-10	CURRAGH IRE	1408	GOOD TO YIELDING
97	VALIANT FORCE  USA	1	2023-06-22	ASCOT	1005	GOOD TO FIRM
97	SEE THE FIRE  GB	3	2023-10-13	NEWMARKET	1609	SOFT
97	SACRED ANGEL  IRE	3	2023-09-30	NEWMARKET	1207	GOOD TO FIRM
97	RAMATUELLE  USA	2	2023-08-20	DEAUVILLE FR	1200	VERY SOFT
97	KING*S GAMBLE  IRE	3	2023-08-25	YORK	1207	GOOD TO FIRM
96	GHOSTWRITER  IRE	1	2023-09-09	ASCOT	1408	GOOD TO FIRM
96	DEEPONE  GB	1	2023-09-23	CURRAGH IRE	1609	YIELDING TO SOFT
96	CHIEF LITTLE ROCK  IRE	2	2023-10-14	NEWMARKET	1609	SOFT
96	CARLA*S WAY  IRE	1	2023-09-29	NEWMARKET	1408	GOOD TO FIRM
96	BALLYMOUNT BOY  IRE	2	2023-08-03	GOODWOOD	1207	SOFT
96	ARABIAN CROWN  FR	1	2023-10-14	NEWMARKET	2011	SOFT
95	VESPERTILIO  FR	1	2023-08-19	CURRAGH IRE	1408	GOOD TO YIELDING
95	ROSALLION  IRE	1	2023-10-01	LONGCHAMP FR	1400	GOOD TO SOFT
95	LAULNE  FR	2	2023-09-16	CHANTILLY FR	1200	GOOD TO SOFT
95	ISLANDSINTHESTREAM  IRE	2	2023-08-19	CURRAGH IRE	1408	GOOD TO YIELDING
95	GHOSTWRITER  IRE	1	2023-09-30	NEWMARKET	1609	GOOD TO FIRM
95	BIG EVS  IRE	1	2023-08-02	GOODWOOD	1005	SOFT

I'd be interested to see how they compare with the Figgis Ratings.

.Marksman, I'm not a follower of Topspeed ratings. For one, while adjusting for weights carried is a no brainer, I don't subscribe to the method of adding wfa to figures. You're giving horses credit for running faster than they have run, and might ever run even as they get older. Ancient Wisdom is no better than a Gp3 horse by my reckoning, so that shows how far apart we often are. But each to their own. I'm sure they're often right where I'm wrong, and vice versa.

Figgis I didn't realise they add wfa to topspeed figures.  That seems so counter intuitive that I still don't think they do it.  I will have to check some of their 2yo figures to see if that is happening.

.Marksman, sorry, I may be wrong about that then. I'm sure a while ago they switched to using wfa, but possibly that was when someone else was compiling them. I know Raceform changed to using wfa some years ago. Like I said, I've not really looked at them for ages.

I've just looked at Newmarket last Friday and there was a 7f 2yo race won by Dance Sequence (9-2) and a 7f race won by Matilda Picotte (9-0)(3yo).
Matilda ran 0.8s faster than Dance Sequence, but was rated 3lb lower on topspeed.  So that would suggest that they do use wfa to increase 2yo topspeed ratings.

Obviously happy with the Dewhurst result and how it was achieved without much worry. However, with more evidence to piece together I now think that City Of Troy is not the world beater I thought/hoped he might be.

Apart from City Of Troy I think the over-rans did not amount to much eg Haatem was beaten slightly further than in the Superlative; Haatem confirmed form with Iberian; Iberian beat Rosallion solely on ground the last time. Vandeek will be campaigned as a sprinter next season; Henry Longfellow is more likely to go to France..

I think City Of Troy will eat the same protagonists for breakfast next May, all things being equal. And, on a line with Unquestionable and Bucanero Fuerta City Of Troy has nothing to fear about Rosallion either, I believe.

Rosallion beat Alyanaabi by just under 5Ls @ Ascot.
When 3RD behind Iberian @ Donny stable blamed the run on the ground.

Oct 16, 2023 -- 12:14PM, Figgis wrote:

Obviously happy with the Dewhurst result and how it was achieved without much worry. However, with more evidence to piece together I now think that City Of Troy is not the world beater I thought/hoped he might be.

Hi Figgis, City Of Troy is a monster to lead like that and then quicken is the hallmark of a great, I doubt he will be beat at the mile and 10f within range looking at him.

Metro john, maybe you're right, but I wasn't massively impressed with the overall form and it's put his Superlative win in better perspective for me. I can see him being placed in the Guineas but not winning it.

I respect your opinion Figgis but the visual of those last 2 furlongs at 23.19  to sustain and quicken amazing , he is the real deal and does compare with frankel on the expectation scale anyways.

Alas we will never get a price

Metro John, lots of horses can quicken like that in an ordinary overall time / against moderate opposition.

I suppose that as long as we take the topspeed ratings of 2yos against just other 2yos then the wfa adjustment is irrelevant.  That being the case, the performance of City of Troy was nothing special and, if anything, not as good as Ancient Wisdom.  Now Ancient Wisdom may have made great improvement due to the stable being out of form when he ran previously.  But it may actually be that he was put in his place by an outstanding Rosallion at Ascot.  The form of that listed race has now worked out so well that it looks more like Group 2 level.  (And Rosallion was visually at least as impressive as City of Troy was in the Dewhurst.)
Looking at the Champagne Stakes (Doncaster) again, it looked like Rosallion was coming to win his race when hit on the nose with a whip.  He backed out quickly after that.  If it had landed higher up on the face, I don't think it would have hindered him, but right on the end of the nose must have hurt.  His win in the Lagardere was easy.
Taking all this into account, you could say that Rosallion is a better horse than City of Troy.  It's just that O'Brien has this reputation of delivering year after year.
But I won't make money on here sitting on the fence:  When City of Troy goes odds on (which will be soon), I will be laying.  Losing money in May isn't, in itself, a worry: The biggest risk will be affordabiliy checks when I empty my bank.

'Marksman', how you got loads of green with City Of Troy? I've quite a bit accumulated with ante singles (18.5/16/5/3), doubles, trebles and accas. I've been managing risk since his Dewhurst win; more when he goes odds-on.

Unlike with the Superlative win, I'm extremely confident about the speed figure for City Of Troy's Dewhurst win. His main rival, Iberian, ran no race. Alyanaabi is no better than Gp3 and Eben Shaddad Listed class. As I rated him much higher for the Superlative win it's tempting to think that he ran within himself in the Dewhurst and is capable of much better. Paddington won the Irish Guineas showing a strong possibility he was capable of better but personally I'm not seeing that here, and believe that's as good as City Of Troy is.

Trying to get the Superlative win rated correctly was a bit of a headache. In my view it wasn't a one allowance fits all card, which can make things difficult. It was reasonable to think City Of Troy had run to a very high level. As the next five home had either run to the same mark before or after that race, so there was no stretching credibility to rate the form highly. However, the nagging doubt for me was, while it's not unheard of, in my experience it's unusual for so many horses to run to their peak level at the same time. I was hoping to get confirmation of that high level in the Dewhurst, but even though COT won impressively I didn't see it.

I have now done a complete reverse on my earlier posts. There is still the Futurity to come, but of what I've seen so far I think Henry Longfellow has the best chance of winning the Guineas. If he's going well next spring I don't think Coolmore will resist running him at Newmarket instead of the alternative target of Longchamp. If he runs I'll be backing him.

just looking at RP average times for Newmarket 83 seconds and Curragh 82.9 very similar courses timewise , COT  ran the distance in 84.85 HL ran it in 87.54. COT seemed to run in the more competitive race and set the pace.

The ground is a scratch head job.?

Aiden made the comment "we have never had a horse like him"

MJ, you'll find he's made that comment about numerous horses, for one reason or another.

Two horses to take all the 8f to 12f group 1s some team Figgis I doubt they will ever meet.

With this one it's that he never gets tired. Even if that's true it doesn't translate that he could go even faster, just that he has stamina. Coolmore usually know when they have a decent one, and they knew early on with this one. However, I'd say they can only know up to a certain level at home, quite how good they are can only be determined on the track. City Of Troy has just put up two visually impressive performances so you can't blame them for thinking and hoping the horse might be brilliant. I also thought he might be after the Superlative. Maybe I'll end up kicking myself for changing my opinion, but at this stage that's how I see it.

Two horses to take all the 8f to 12f group 1s some team Figgis I doubt they will ever meet

I'll probably be backing Henry Longfellow in the Guineas if he goes there, but as for tougher Gp1s afterwards I think he'll need to improve some more.

impossible, I am deep in the red on City of Troy already.  But if he goes odds on, I go in for more.  I will manage risk in the Spring if I have to (or if I can, even).

'Marksman', either way I'll still be green with City Of Troy; I hope you get salvation.

I think on a line with Haatem there was only a length between City Of Troy and him. But, on very soft ground I'd side with Henry Longfellow (I've him on my side too). If so, Rosallion will be ineffective too; Iberian is one I cannot have.

However, in the 2000G City Of Troy does have an extra furlong to grind out a win. He's been phenomenal at the business end so far; this is ground independent too.

If it comes up good to soft or worse, I'll be on Ancient Wisdom (hope he sticks to a mile at first); on faster ground, Rosallion. I'm not certain they are better horses that COT but the prospective / expected prices are all wrong. The Autumn stakes has thrown up Coroebus, Persian King and Magna Grecia in recent years, all Guineas winning milers. It's as if nobody has clocked (literally) his performance apart from a few on here. The Racing Post used their word 'impressive' about COT but not for AW, yet you'd have to give AW a higher speed figure seeing as it was soft ground and a longer trip.

I think Racing Post had their fingers on the "impressive" button while they were still in the stalls and couldn't wait to press it.  Visually, there was little to choose between AW and CoT, except that CoT seemed to find the going/track ideal and travelled extremely smoothly throughout.  But going to the line they both looked equally strong and won by similar margins.
I think the main difference between them is that one of them is trained by AOB and is being talked up by the whole of Coolmore.

Might have looked equally strong Marksman, but City Of Troy was 2.12 seconds around 12 lengths quicker than Ancient Warrior for last 2 furlongs .

.Marksman, to answer your earlier question of how my ratings compare. I'm using a much lower scale these days but it's essentially the same thing as they're all pound scales.

2yo Colts

75 - Vandeek
74 - Henry Longfellow
72 - Bucanero Fuerte
71 - City Of Troy
71 - River Tiber
70 - Rosallion
70 - Army Ethos

Obviously a few of those are more likely to be sprinters and River Tiber hasn't been quite as good since the Coventry. For me, nearly everything else in the Guineas market has to make big improvement. I have Ancient Wisdom 58 a long way behind.

Thanks Figgis.
You must be using very different standard times to RP for 7f and 8f at Newmarket for there to be such a discrepency in Ancient Wisdom's rating.  Or do you take into account some other factor when making your ratings.

.Marksman, I use my own standards, but it's also a judgement call that the ground was slightly slower after the first race. That's based partly on visuals but also on the previous ratings of all the runners involved, and what seems likely or unlikely improvement. Admittedly that approach can lead to a bum steer sometimes (maybe AW will turn out Gp1 class after all), but with experience it leads to far more hits and there's absolutely no way I'd go back to a rigid one allowance method on every card.

Fwiw, here are mine (7-8f only):

77 Dancing Gemini
75 Henry Longfellow
75 Ancient Wisdom
74 City of Troy
74 Rosallion

I hope City Of Troy gets the good ground his trainer has indicated he likes on Guineas day. Then I'll probably bet an his winning distance regardless of his adversaries bar Henry Longfellow.

Here we have another opportunity for the sectional upgraders to prove their worth. Apparently Timeform have upgraded City Of Troy's basic time figure by no less than 10lbs on account of his fast late sectionals. On my scale this equates to saying he was value for a better time of just over 3 lengths. In my opinion this is absolute guff, but happy to be proved wrong.

Current top 10 T/Form.

City Of Troy - 125p
Henry Longfellow - 120p
Vandeek - 119p
Ancient Wisdom - 118
Bucanero Fuerte - 117
Rosallion - 116p
Arabian Crown - 114p
Opera Singer - 114p
Big Evs - 114
Dancing Gemini - 114

I'm not really expecting this year's Futurity to have much of an influence on the Guineas, but you never know. The favourite is Ancient Wisdom, but on ratings I have Diego Velazquez and Dancing Gemini a couple of pounds ahead of him. I can't split that pair, and the way they both won last time I see no obvious reason why either of them will improve here. Although it could be argued with only two runs behind him and seemingly a big reputation the O'Brien runner may be more likely to do so. On my figures though they have both only showed Gp3 ability so far, so it's a no bet race for me.

God's Window is an interesting unexposed runner. I'm also interested to see how Ancient Wisdom fares, as many who rated City Of Troy very highly last time also had AW on a high mark, whereas I have him only just about Gp3.

I said it was a no bet race, but as things stand I may end up laying Ancient Wisdom.

At 6/4 I'd do the same with Ancient Wisdom.

Inspection in the morning.

Saturday's Group 1 card must pass a 3.30pm inspection on Friday

Not good if they are inspecting this early...

Laid Ancient Wisdom. Could be a bit risky as he may turn out to be the only one who handles ground as heavy as this is supposed to be, and I only have a couple marginally ahead of him. Nevertheless I don't rate him as highly as others and have to take him on as short as this.

The Autumn Stakes time at Newmarket has been validated.

Hands up, Ancient Wisdom was clearly the best today and did it well enough on bad ground. I will have to check later times, it could turn out to be a better performance than I think, but at the moment I can't see me rating it highly, with Devil's Point and Deira Mile not far behind. Dancing Gemini and Diego Velazquez look to have run below par. Definitely a heavy ground time even rating Ancient Wisdom on the lower side.

Don`t think Newmarket in May on good ground will suit him.

Dancing Gemini was running a decent race until failing to stay. DV was just below par, possibly due to the ground. With those two out of the way AW didn't have much to beat. That said, I did like everything about the way he went about it was pulling away at the finish. They went slow early so whatever won was never going to win by a big margin. It's possible I was wrong to rate his Autumn Stakes win on the lower side, but until I see him do it again in a fast run race I'll cautiously keep him low. Even if I retrospectively end up rating his Autumn Stakes win as high as I plausibly could I think he'll need to improve for a Guineas, even on soft ground.

* about it and he was pulling away at the finish

brandyontherocks
O'Brien's only got 1 horse entered for the Juvenile by the looks of it,Johannes Brahms.
Going by the books,he's a no show.

That post was a load of old cobblers,he's got the front 2 in the mkt,
River Tiber & Unquestionable.
I must've had the wrong race up.

Would like to see a big performance from the 'River'tonight. He can win. A win might resurrect my ante-post singles and doubles (Fallen Angel 1000gns), or fade out of contention for the big ones in 2024. Was 7/2, 3/1 but gone short enough now with Frankie dangerous around the spud-garden that goes as Santa Anita. Desperate track that would suit greyhounds better. Well come on the 'River' try front run this lot.(paddies seem keen on avoiding him big time).

PS 'where's harry call with his advices'. Always on top of the USA stuuf.

River Tiber N/R.