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penzance
25 Aug 23 17:13
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Date Joined: 26 Feb 04
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Just had a butchers for this & see that City Of Troy is generally a 2/1 chance with
1 firm going 5/2,there is a firm going as short as 13/8.Who backs @ these prices
for a race 8/9 months away.He does look a good animal but they are short.

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Replies: 166
By:
brandyontherocks
When: 26 Aug 23 23:45
Do you think it may be possible, with the likes of
Henry Longfellow and Diego Velazquez in the wings,
they may try City Of Troy in the Breeders Cup Juvenile?
With a look at the Kentucky Derby?
By:
impossible123
When: 27 Aug 23 19:28
^^ City Of Troy could go to America, I guess. It will also help the owners' bookies' friends. However, AOB intimated City Of Troy could be the one to do a Triple Crown next season.

Did we not hear that last season too?
By:
impossible123
When: 08 Sep 23 15:17
City Of Troy and Henry Longfellow have been declared for the National Stakes on sunday; Moore on the former Heffernan on the latter. Is the race nrnb or antepost today?
By:
Figgis
When: 10 Sep 23 15:22
I have City Of Troy already good enough to win an average/decent Guineas. That doesn't mean he will, of course, he still has to get there in the same form. Difficult seeing him beaten today, but if he is, I suspect it would be more about him recovering from that last performance than any of these improving past him.
By:
Figgis
When: 10 Sep 23 16:31
In the absence of COT it was still a decent performance from the winner. Nevertheless I have him half a stone behind COT at this stage, and even if COT doesn't make the event I reckon Henry Longfellow would still need to find around another 5lbs to take an average Guineas. However, if he is going to be more of a 12f horse then I think today's performance would make him the one to beat in the Derby.
By:
JayTrumpOldTomDubbl
When: 30 Sep 23 11:09
Will today bring a big shake-up to the 2024 2000 Guineas ? With all the warnings from AP prior to River Tiber last time out in France we can surely expect a much better effort today. Will it be good enough to beat Vandeek ? I certainly hope so. Vandeek had a hard race in France to catch that classy filly. Now dryer ground and hopefully AP has the River back on song, what's not to like about him.
By:
impossible123
When: 01 Oct 23 14:40
AOB has a double-grip on this with City Of Troy and Henry Longfellow. I do not think they will take each other on here. I think Henry Longfellow is a reserve, otherwise France 2000G.
By:
Figgis
When: 02 Oct 23 20:48
Difficult to understand how Timeform have HL above COT, albeit by only 1lb. It doesn't stack up on form and certainly not on times. I have HL half a stone behind his stablemate. Hawk Wing was undoubtedly faster than Rock Of Gibraltar as a 2yo but ROG improved past him at 3, so there's no saying that the same couldn't happen again, but it seems more unlikely than likely.
By:
Figgis
When: 14 Oct 23 13:35
I said City Of Troy is already good enough to win an average Guineas but that was being cautious, as if I go with my most likely rating he's already good enough to have won any recent Guineas barring Frankel's. I'm still not 100% confident about that, as in a race of lightly raced 2yos it's possible that his main opponents ran below par and the others just weren't very good.

Nevertheless, nothing that has been out again from that card has made me want to downgrade the performance. I could still be wrong, and I've seen many 2yos regress after putting up a big performance, so normally backing odds on 2yos doesn't make much appeal, but I'm on this one.
By:
roadrunner46
When: 14 Oct 23 15:01
It was very good bet to win in the distance markets, know it was 4/5 to win by a length, could easily of taken the next price to win by more than a length, hit the 100TS lto and one it battered by 6 lengths went and won a group 2 next time out, as far as form goes doesn’t get better than that. I’m on break so didn’t back it, picked out a treble today, see if Arabian crown wins in 3.15, last runner in that treble, first two won
By:
geoff m
When: 14 Oct 23 19:01
Im not a time expert by any means, however on 1st glance looks pretty impressive. Last 3 furlongs look good @ side of applebys easy winners.
By:
roadrunner46
When: 14 Oct 23 19:04
Who is this twayt who always puts two stars on my postsLaugh
By:
penzance
When: 14 Oct 23 19:19
Patrick Moore Mischief
By:
impossible123
When: 14 Oct 23 19:26
How does one put stars on a post? I do not even know how to use emojis. Is there an emoji to denote a prat?

I think The Dewhurst was run in just under 2 secs above normal despite soft ground with him doing the donkey work.
By:
.Marksman.
When: 15 Oct 23 00:16
impossible, to get the emoji of your choice click on the smiley face below the box you type in.  Then hover your mouse over an emojis and the tool tip will come up telling you what the emoji means.
When you are ready, just click your chosen emoji.
I give roadrunner 2 stars because he has a motor bike, otherwise I'd just give him 1.
By:
roadrunner46
When: 15 Oct 23 06:27
So it’s you always puts to two stars on my posts, don’t read the @@@ you write never have done
By:
.Marksman.
When: 15 Oct 23 09:46
LaughLaughLaugh
By:
impossible123
When: 15 Oct 23 18:24
Marksman
LaughLaugh
'roadrunner', LaughLaugh
By:
impossible123
When: 15 Oct 23 18:31
Yes, success finally. Guys and gals, it's been a good week. To back City Of Troy at 16/1 and 20/1 for Newmarket and Epsom respectively was jolly opportunistic; Ylang Ylang at 6/1 Fillies Mile and Ace Impact 7/1 (ARC) an icing on the cake. The $64k question is will it last? LaughShockedScared
By:
brandyontherocks
When: 15 Oct 23 18:43
The times on Friday and Saturday at Newmarket were on average only a couple of seconds below standard.
Would it be fare to suggest the ground was not that soft?
By:
Figgis
When: 15 Oct 23 19:03
Brandy, Friday it was good ground for the earlier races, bordering good to soft later. Saturday good the whole card.
By:
Figgis
When: 15 Oct 23 19:08
Although there was a tailwind on both days speeding up the times, so that needs to be allowed for. Still. no worse than soft side of good / good to soft both days.
By:
brandyontherocks
When: 15 Oct 23 20:42
Thanks Figg.

Sent you a message.
By:
.Marksman.
When: 16 Oct 23 14:25
These are the best Racing Post 2yo topseed figures of the season so far (complete up to end of Saturday).
     TopSpeed          Horse          Placing          Date          Course          Distance          Going    
    107         ANCIENT WISDOM  FR         1        2023-10-14         NEWMARKET         1609         SOFT    
    104         PORTA FORTUNA  IRE         1        2023-09-30         NEWMARKET         1207         GOOD TO FIRM    
    104         BIG EVS  IRE         1        2023-06-21         ASCOT         1005         GOOD TO FIRM    
    103         VANDEEK  GB         1        2023-09-30         NEWMARKET         1207         GOOD TO FIRM    
    103         LAKE FOREST  GB         1        2023-08-25         YORK         1207         GOOD TO FIRM    
    102         VANDEEK  GB         1        2023-08-20         DEAUVILLE FR         1200         VERY SOFT    
    102         CITY OF TROY  USA         1        2023-10-14         NEWMARKET         1408         SOFT    
    101         YLANG YLANG  GB         1        2023-10-13         NEWMARKET         1609         SOFT    
    101         HENRY LONGFELLOW  IRE         1        2023-08-19         CURRAGH IRE         1408         GOOD TO YIELDING    
    100         VANDEEK  GB         1        2023-08-03         GOODWOOD         1207         SOFT    
    100         RAMATUELLE  USA         1        2023-07-16         CHANTILLY FR         1200         GOOD    
    100         JOHANNES BRAHMS  GB         2        2023-08-25         YORK         1207         GOOD TO FIRM    
    100         HENRY LONGFELLOW  IRE         1        2023-09-10         CURRAGH IRE         1408         GOOD TO YIELDING    
    100         DARNATION  IRE         1        2023-09-14         DONCASTER         1609         SOFT    
    100         CRIMSON ADVOCATE  USA         1        2023-06-21         ASCOT         1005         GOOD    
    100         CITY OF TROY  USA         1        2023-07-15         NEWMARKET JULY         1408         GOOD TO SOFT    
    99         SHUWARI  IRE         2        2023-10-13         NEWMARKET         1609         SOFT    
    99         RELIEF RALLY  IRE         2        2023-06-21         ASCOT         1005         GOOD    
    99         INQUISITIVELY  GB         1        2023-10-13         NEWMARKET         1005         SOFT    
    99         DANCING GEMINI  IRE         1        2023-09-15         DONCASTER         1413         SOFT    
    98         PEARLS AND RUBIES  USA         2        2023-09-30         NEWMARKET         1207         GOOD TO FIRM    
    98         FALLEN ANGEL  GB         1        2023-09-10         CURRAGH IRE         1408         GOOD TO YIELDING    
    97         VALIANT FORCE  USA         1        2023-06-22         ASCOT         1005         GOOD TO FIRM    
    97         SEE THE FIRE  GB         3        2023-10-13         NEWMARKET         1609         SOFT    
    97         SACRED ANGEL  IRE         3        2023-09-30         NEWMARKET         1207         GOOD TO FIRM    
    97         RAMATUELLE  USA         2        2023-08-20         DEAUVILLE FR         1200         VERY SOFT    
    97         KING*S GAMBLE  IRE         3        2023-08-25         YORK         1207         GOOD TO FIRM    
    96         GHOSTWRITER  IRE         1        2023-09-09         ASCOT         1408         GOOD TO FIRM    
    96         DEEPONE  GB         1        2023-09-23         CURRAGH IRE         1609         YIELDING TO SOFT    
    96         CHIEF LITTLE ROCK  IRE         2        2023-10-14         NEWMARKET         1609         SOFT    
    96         CARLA*S WAY  IRE         1        2023-09-29         NEWMARKET         1408         GOOD TO FIRM    
    96         BALLYMOUNT BOY  IRE         2        2023-08-03         GOODWOOD         1207         SOFT    
    96         ARABIAN CROWN  FR         1        2023-10-14         NEWMARKET         2011         SOFT    
    95         VESPERTILIO  FR         1        2023-08-19         CURRAGH IRE         1408         GOOD TO YIELDING    
    95         ROSALLION  IRE         1        2023-10-01         LONGCHAMP FR         1400         GOOD TO SOFT    
    95         LAULNE  FR         2        2023-09-16         CHANTILLY FR         1200         GOOD TO SOFT    
    95         ISLANDSINTHESTREAM  IRE         2        2023-08-19         CURRAGH IRE         1408         GOOD TO YIELDING    
    95         GHOSTWRITER  IRE         1        2023-09-30         NEWMARKET         1609         GOOD TO FIRM    
    95         BIG EVS  IRE         1        2023-08-02         GOODWOOD         1005         SOFT    
By:
.Marksman.
When: 16 Oct 23 14:27
I'd be interested to see how they compare with the Figgis Ratings.
By:
Figgis
When: 16 Oct 23 14:39
.Marksman, I'm not a follower of Topspeed ratings. For one, while adjusting for weights carried is a no brainer, I don't subscribe to the method of adding wfa to figures. You're giving horses credit for running faster than they have run, and might ever run even as they get older. Ancient Wisdom is no better than a Gp3 horse by my reckoning, so that shows how far apart we often are. But each to their own. I'm sure they're often right where I'm wrong, and vice versa.
By:
.Marksman.
When: 16 Oct 23 14:59
Figgis I didn't realise they add wfa to topspeed figures.  That seems so counter intuitive that I still don't think they do it.  I will have to check some of their 2yo figures to see if that is happening.
By:
Figgis
When: 16 Oct 23 15:10
.Marksman, sorry, I may be wrong about that then. I'm sure a while ago they switched to using wfa, but possibly that was when someone else was compiling them. I know Raceform changed to using wfa some years ago. Like I said, I've not really looked at them for ages.
By:
.Marksman.
When: 16 Oct 23 15:49
I've just looked at Newmarket last Friday and there was a 7f 2yo race won by Dance Sequence (9-2) and a 7f race won by Matilda Picotte (9-0)(3yo).
Matilda ran 0.8s faster than Dance Sequence, but was rated 3lb lower on topspeed.  So that would suggest that they do use wfa to increase 2yo topspeed ratings.
By:
Figgis
When: 16 Oct 23 18:14
Obviously happy with the Dewhurst result and how it was achieved without much worry. However, with more evidence to piece together I now think that City Of Troy is not the world beater I thought/hoped he might be.
By:
impossible123
When: 16 Oct 23 19:12
Apart from City Of Troy I think the over-rans did not amount to much eg Haatem was beaten slightly further than in the Superlative; Haatem confirmed form with Iberian; Iberian beat Rosallion solely on ground the last time. Vandeek will be campaigned as a sprinter next season; Henry Longfellow is more likely to go to France..

I think City Of Troy will eat the same protagonists for breakfast next May, all things being equal. And, on a line with Unquestionable and Bucanero Fuerta City Of Troy has nothing to fear about Rosallion either, I believe.
By:
penzance
When: 16 Oct 23 19:47
Rosallion beat Alyanaabi by just under 5Ls @ Ascot.
When 3RD behind Iberian @ Donny stable blamed the run on the ground.
By:
metro john
When: 16 Oct 23 20:04

Oct 16, 2023 -- 6:14PM, Figgis wrote:


Obviously happy with the Dewhurst result and how it was achieved without much worry. However, with more evidence to piece together I now think that City Of Troy is not the world beater I thought/hoped he might be.


Hi Figgis, City Of Troy is a monster to lead like that and then quicken is the hallmark of a great, I doubt he will be beat at the mile and 10f within range looking at him.Excited

By:
Figgis
When: 16 Oct 23 20:10
Metro john, maybe you're right, but I wasn't massively impressed with the overall form and it's put his Superlative win in better perspective for me. I can see him being placed in the Guineas but not winning it.
By:
metro john
When: 16 Oct 23 20:23
I respect your opinion Figgis but the visual of those last 2 furlongs at 23.19  to sustain and quicken amazing , he is the real deal and does compare with frankel on the expectation scale anyways.
By:
metro john
When: 16 Oct 23 20:24
Alas we will never get a priceCrySad
By:
Figgis
When: 16 Oct 23 20:28
Metro John, lots of horses can quicken like that in an ordinary overall time / against moderate opposition.
By:
.Marksman.
When: 17 Oct 23 00:28
I suppose that as long as we take the topspeed ratings of 2yos against just other 2yos then the wfa adjustment is irrelevant.  That being the case, the performance of City of Troy was nothing special and, if anything, not as good as Ancient Wisdom.  Now Ancient Wisdom may have made great improvement due to the stable being out of form when he ran previously.  But it may actually be that he was put in his place by an outstanding Rosallion at Ascot.  The form of that listed race has now worked out so well that it looks more like Group 2 level.  (And Rosallion was visually at least as impressive as City of Troy was in the Dewhurst.)
Looking at the Champagne Stakes (Doncaster) again, it looked like Rosallion was coming to win his race when hit on the nose with a whip.  He backed out quickly after that.  If it had landed higher up on the face, I don't think it would have hindered him, but right on the end of the nose must have hurt.  His win in the Lagardere was easy.
Taking all this into account, you could say that Rosallion is a better horse than City of Troy.  It's just that O'Brien has this reputation of delivering year after year.
But I won't make money on here sitting on the fence:  When City of Troy goes odds on (which will be soon), I will be laying.  Losing money in May isn't, in itself, a worry: The biggest risk will be affordabiliy checks when I empty my bank.
By:
impossible123
When: 17 Oct 23 10:44
'Marksman', how you got loads of green with City Of Troy? I've quite a bit accumulated with ante singles (18.5/16/5/3), doubles, trebles and accas. I've been managing risk since his Dewhurst win; more when he goes odds-on.
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