Horse Antepost

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23 Jul 23 21:59
Date Joined: 28 Jul 12
| Topic/replies: 1,396 | Blogger: gpz6316's blog
given a cool temperature week and plenty of moisture about i,d be very surprised if the big colt king of steel doesn't take this
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Report roadrunner46 July 24, 2023 1:43 PM BST
Some good prices on offer in this race if your confident about your selection, Emily upjohn interests me and desert crown, have to do a little more homework first, weight advantage the 3yo’s have could be enough to win it.
Report impossible123 July 24, 2023 5:28 PM BST
I'd side with King of Steel. I think he'd be improving and  more robust than Auguste Rodin. His price is good too, and he's an assured runner. His wfa allowance could be the deciding factor against his elders.
Report A_T July 29, 2023 9:00 AM BST
AR for me. Not sure there's real top notcher amongst the older horses
Report sageform July 29, 2023 11:45 AM BST
I backed King of Steel a while ago but now think Hukum might just beat him. It looks a great race with the Derby winner in there, Westover representing last years Derby and the ever dangerous Pyledriver. I don't fancy Emily Upjohn in a strong field on good/soft but I am probably wrong!
Report Figgis July 29, 2023 12:48 PM BST
I have this year's Derby as nothing special, but well up to scratch. Thankfully the older horses aren't asked to give away 13lbs, as was the case when I first started betting on this race, but I still believe it takes a top notch older horse to give the weight to an average Derby winner. While this is possibly the deepest field I can remember, I agree with A_T that I don't quite see a truly top rank older horse.

So strictly on ratings I have Auguste Rodin ahead. I backed him for the Derby, but, as I said after the race, I didn't see any real improvement from him from 2 to 3 and thought he would struggle to maintain that level. He won the Irish Derby while running below par. On this occasion I don't buy Moore's excuse that is was due to the slow early pace. It is, however, possible that he was a little flat after his Epsom exertions and will perform better today. Nevertheless, what I saw that day has done nothing to change my opinion on him after The Derby. Despite being beaten fair and square on the day, I thought King Of Steel was the one to take from The Derby. He is a horse who has improved significantly and therefore I would expect him to be the one most likely to replicate Derby form. I backed him at Royal Ascot and have backed him again today. I think he is a cracking bet.
Report FELTFAIR July 29, 2023 1:14 PM BST
Can`t desert Auguste Rodin now but will not have a bet. Perhaps lay a couple instead.
Report harry callaghan July 29, 2023 1:30 PM BST
really tricky race this betting wise, as there is not a lot between the horses from a handicapping point of view. I've saved on king of steel as still think he may go on improving, although he didn't achieve much more at ascot last time, he did however confirm the impression he gave at epsom when running eye balls out off the absence. I do however have my reservations about the 3 year old crop so he can only be a saver for me, i do like him as an individual.

Hukum whom i've always liked, has just kept on improving and i saw no signs of that stopping at sandown when he would in my opinion been an unlucky loser, even though he sat a perfect trip, he was stopped in the run and i think he would of buried the second easier with a clearer run. I still rate the second a top class horse but Hukum buried in the furlong imo. I think he has become a real top notcher in todays climate and if age is not his downfall i expect him to win this comfortably, so at the generous odds i am happy to accommodate a decent bet ew on the horse as i think he is much the best and the right odds. The varian horse is still the unknown and i've played the reverse forecast and a win bet on him if Hukum fails to progress from his first run, however i don't expect this to be the case

emily upjohn i have close to top rated however i thought she ended up having a tough race in the eclipse so would have to see her back that up here. Westover is a tough hardy horse and can certainly make the frame along with pyledriver who loves the track. I do still see them being exposed here though

I haven't been in the auguste rodin camp and the irish derby did nothing for me again, i haven't really been involved in the 3 year olds in regards betting this season, as have not been convinced by my own ratings on the horses. They have come back very low and without conviction in my part. I still hold hope for king of steel, albeit not at a high level at this stage. I do however see him going on improving into that massive frame he has.

be lucky
Report Sandown July 29, 2023 2:35 PM BST
A top class race being run with top class horses trained by top trainers. It still has to be approached like any other race coming down to the most likely horses to win and whether the prices on offer provide value. My idea of the most likely winners in order of preference are Auguste Rodin, King of Steel and Emily Upjohn. On my figures only the first 2 offer value and I will back them accordingly with AR being the one who wins the most for me.

The weather and ground has come right for AR who has both speed and stamina and proven class. I see KOS with more stamina than speed but he may have more progression in him. The Ballydoyle four will no doubt dictate the tactics which gives AR a possible advantage with the pace being made to suit AR.

I know that AOB has form praising his horses but this year he does seem to be exceptionally bullish about both AR and Paddington. Given his record that has to be factored in.
Report sageform July 29, 2023 4:14 PM BST
Got my 2 fancies in the frame and the right way round on the day although King of Steel would have been a bigger winner for me. I was right that Emily never had a prayer in that field.
Report A_T July 29, 2023 4:17 PM BST
another stinker from AR - even worse than the guineas
Report penzance July 29, 2023 4:18 PM BST
Shame Desert Crown never showed.Got form with the 1st 2.Think he would've gone close.
Wonder if we'll see him again.
Report roadrunner46 July 29, 2023 5:15 PM BST
WD sageform, missed last year, didn’t see that hukum win his big races, been around for awhile did know the horse, saving grace was westover getting beat, lot of money for that, moving in the markets, couldn’t enjoy the race, not losing 600 and not even getting a run for my money, when read John godsend comments didn’t inspire confidence, this is the race of the year, so it’s a different ball game
Report roadrunner46 July 30, 2023 10:47 AM BST
Here’s what I think about the betting on the race on the machine, favourite was no money for it drifting like a barge, king of steel no money for that either, Emily upjohn was just about holding its price, that was a bad sign, had any chance of winning there would of been for it and there wasn’t, only one noticed all the money was as for was the runner up, clued up money, considering how well it run
Report Figgis July 30, 2023 11:06 AM BST
Very well done Harry. For me, while being decent enough form this result wasn't up with the level of the better runnings of the KG. Hukum showed very good form to win last time and ran a really good figure when winning last year's Coronation Cup. I have him running close to that mark here. I've repeatedly said that I thought AR had already peaked, but obviously even I didn't expect him to run as poorly as that. People will now crab his Derby win but he clearly isn't the same horse as on that day. Emily Upjohn also clearly didn't run her race. I said after the Eclipse that she would probably need some time to recover from that race and was a bit surprised they ran her again so quickly. I think Westover ran a similar race to his CC effort. So if EU had been in the same form she'd have won yesterday. But she wasn't, and that's that. It's about picking the best on the day.

On the face of it King Of Steel didn't run too badly to get the place money. Varian is talking up the effort, but in my view this was a long way from his Derby performance. To receive 11lbs and get stuffed nearly 5 lengths by horses not quite up to top Gp1 level reads as around Gp3 level for a 3yo, in my view. He went from travelling extremely well to immediately running on empty. The ground was softer on the round course but wasn't extremely soft. Also he was moving very well on that softer part of the track so I find the ground an unlikely excuse. Varian says they have the option of stepping down in trip, but I don't see how he could have run so well in the Derby if he didn't truly stay 12f. There was always the possibility that the Derby would bottom such an inexperienced big horse. However, it certainly didn't look that way at Royal Ascot, admittedly against lesser opposition.

Unlike with some horses who ran worse than him yesterday, I can't find an obvious excuse for what I consider a disappointing run. Maybe he just excelled himself in the Derby and that's the best we'll see of him. It certainly wouldn't be the first time that has happened. It may come back to bite me, but, as a punter who has never been a fan of the yard, I will be giving him a miss in future.
Report unclepuncle July 30, 2023 12:28 PM BST
Great finish and delighted for Owen Burrows.

From the earlier races it was clear the going was pretty testing so that immediately ruled out Pyledriver and Deauville Legend.
AR had won a weak Gp1 on soft but is a nice mover and while that alone doesn’t excuse his appalling run it may have been a major factor.

Emily Upjohn is better fresh.

King Of Steel ran pretty well and even before the race I was looking up his price for the Juddmonte - wasn’t tempted in by th3 8/1 on offer. He’s a monster unit and really needs another winter on his back, Reminds me of Royal Anthem.
Report sageform July 30, 2023 1:58 PM BST
If Luxembourg ran his race at 122 then the first 2 must be very good. Considering how far Hukum had to travel, I would rate him at 130 and Westover 128. The straight course races suggested that the far rail was the wrong place to be so that could mark up King of Spain who raced there up the straight.
Report impossible123 July 30, 2023 2:31 PM BST
What about Emily Upjohn? She was as disappointing as Auguste Rodin; she did not pick-up. She also under-performed in the previous renewal.
Report harry callaghan July 30, 2023 5:34 PM BST
Cheers figgis appreciate that.

Great race, the king George rarely disappoints tbh.

As far as the form goes tricky to put a figure on the race with conviction for me. Too many underperformed but I had hukum on 127 going in and I’d happily say he ran to near that here, I’m always lower anyway. He sat a perfect trip throughout, similar to sandown but this time his run was not broken. People may argue Westover sat a wide trip but I have a feeling he is a horse that likes space in his races and he got that here. I’d seriously consider taking Westover to the front on this showing, as I really thought he did not stop finding. Both had tough races but both are tough types so will be interesting where they both pitch up next. Hukum could run at 1m2f but clearly both are strong stayers at 1m4f

The 3 year olds disappointed, I’d say auguste Rodin, it was just one run to many but they felt they had to throw the dice, if he’d pulled it off the stallion value would of ballooned, no cigar and he did no running at all which was a shame.

Emily who had a tougher than needed race at sandown was her undoing with 3 weeks between races there will be other days for her and I like her myself.

I am the same as you figgis in regards varian, I cannot catch him right. I gave him too much credit going in as I thought that race at ascot took little winning. He may need to drop in trip and better going at this stage of his career but I wouldn’t give up on him myself just yet as he does have a future
Report sageform July 31, 2023 11:46 AM BST
King of Troy is surely a 4yo star in waiting as many observers have already said. He could be suspect at 12 furlongs on a staying track like Ascot but I still think that the far rail was a big disadvantage all day.
Report Sandown July 31, 2023 11:50 AM BST
A good race to watch especially if you had the winner, but not sure that it lived up to its billing. Too many horses ran well below expectations for my liking for whatever reasons.
Report impossible123 July 31, 2023 8:50 PM BST
I think you meant King Of Steel. There is a City Of Troy the best 2 yr old ever trained by AOB. This beast could stay 3m 2f, could be ideal for Cheltenham Gold Cup after taking in the Epsom Derby and Ascot Gold Cup prior.
Report sageform August 4, 2023 10:15 AM BST
Yes, senior moment. I must check before I post from my defective memory. City of Troy is probably the first of six 2yos this season that are the best that AOB has ever trained. And then their even better one will only run as a 3yo. Which one was billed as their best at this time last year? It certainly was not Paddington.
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