2023 Qatar Prix de L'Arc de Triomphe

Before the initial entries for the Arc are made we have the Prix Ganay on 30 April.  If both Vadeni and Luxembourg turn up, it should be a good guide to the middle distance French races throughout the year.  Luxembourg had a stop start season last year, yet was still able to win the Irish Champion Stakes beating Vadeni. Given better luck, he could be AOB's top middle distance horse this year. Vadeni surprised me in last season's Arc, as I didn't think he would stay the distance, but he actually ran a good race in desperate ground to finish 2nd.  Equinox could be ahead of both of these if he gets his ground (which is if the word "firm" is in it).  The Japanese must have been disappointed by how the going went against them yet again in last year's race, but the law of averages suggests that we won't get these soft/heavy conditions for a fourth consecutive year.
Emily Upjohn was quite impressive winning on Champions day at Ascot.  Last year, in my opening post, I mentioned how Alpinista could give Sir Mark Prescott the highlight of his long career and a similar situation could occur here, if Frankie Dettori gets the ride.  (We could get the mother of all flying dismounts if she wins!)
Desert Crown went from unexposed and largely unknown to become the easy Derby winner in just a few weeks, but he has only beaten horses of his own generation and still has something to prove.
If Auguste Rodin really does win the triple crown, he would have had a hard season and I can see him skipping the Arc in these circumstances (as he would already have joined the greats).
Torquator Tasso and Grand Glory have already been retired, so shouldn't really be in Betfair's market.

I've been backing Kyprios for this since it won the Cadran, think this minor injury makes it more likely it runs in the Arc, are they going to bring it back to run in a Cup race or two? If it runs, and it's soft, they won't see which way it goes.

The best 3yo filly from the 2023 season will probably win the Arc. Highest rated older filly/mare next best. 8 female winners in the last 12 years.

after saturday won't be winning the arc or indeed any other race

Heartache Tonight unbeaten at Longchamp

i really like the around 25/1 adayir at the moment

will be keeping Ace Impact onside , didnt beat much today,  but will handle any condition, will come off a strong pace, will be kept fresh  for the race , taking the obrien horse which was 3rd in the dante and epictetius  could  be better than the epsom winner .

Slow ground would favour Savethelastdance and with the weight allowance she'd be the value-bet.

I see tform rate both derby winners at the same level
125
hahaha
And Emily at 128 (increase of 8 )

I'd have Emily Upjohn last year but connections were non-compliant. I think it's a lot tougher this year as wfa is less generous. Soul Sister and Savethelastdance (esp if soft) could be the answer to a tricky renewal; Ace Impact - if staying - is another for serious consideration, I think.

She does look the best 3yo filly in Europe, Figgis.
But I think the reason that she has not been entered in the Arc is that she was not considered likely to stay the 2400 metres.  (5 of the runners in the Diane did have Arc entries.)
She travels so well in races at 1m and 1m2f that this looks like her ideal trip.
She is by Churchill, who never won beyond a mile, out of a mare who was a miler in Europe, but who won a race at 1m4f at Santa Anita (but this was on firm, on a tight track, small field).
The only plus with regards stamina is that her damsire is Jeremy.

Marksman, the other thing about her Boussac time performance was it was achieved on pretty soft ground. Admittedly that doesn't necessarily mean she has an abundance of stamina, but it all adds to the view that on racecourse evidence so far she certainly doesn't appear to be lacking it.

Blue Rose Cen or Ace Impact? I understand the former needs to be supplemented, and neither is she in the ARC market here. But, she was impressive in the Prix Diane.

Ace Impact would struggle to run in the Nassau !!

Impossible123

I think we are back were we were last year:  Aidan's poor record with 3yos in the Arc. (Thanks to AT for pointing this out last year.)  If August goes for the KG after the Irish Derby he may start suffering from burn out.  They must have put plenty of work into him just to get to the 2000 Guineas, with a view of attempting the Triple Crown.
My guess is that he will win on Sunday and shorten immediately after this.  This is when I will get stuck in laying him.

Could the form of Blue Rose Cen have taken a knock? Never Ending Story was beaten further by Via Sistina over 2f further.

Figgis.
I think that you may be seriously under-estimating Ace Impact. The finishing split at Chantilly indicates that the horse might be special.

Funny thing is that there are plenty of people who still think Savethelastdance is a superstar:  Money wanting to back her at 16.5 for the Arc.
I noticed that AOB was not even at Chester when she won.  Of course he talked her up after she'd won by 22 lengths because that is what he is supposed to do.
All the horses that she beat at Chester have run again since and none have won yet.  I suppose the best performance of any of these was Wintercrack who, after being beaten 34 lengths in a Leicester class 4 handicap, did manage a 3rd in a class 5 handicap at Newmarket (beaten only 1.75 lengths!).  However, most of the others finished last or second last in all their subsequent races.  So, on balance, I doubt the form of the Cheshire Oaks, before even taking into account the fact that the desperate conditions were exagerrating winning distances.
Also, nothing has come out of the Oaks and made the frame yet, but we haven't seen Soul Sister yet and I think she has more big wins in her.
Having written all this I'm going to lay a bit more Savethelastdance in the ARC.

Figgis
If you compared one horse who ran on slow ground and another who ran on fast ground in the same race, I expect you would make some kind of rating adjustment for the performance of the different conditions.

Similarly, if you thought that the draw affected the outcome then you would adjust.

It's no different for the pace of the race effect. One horse who is given an even pace throughout and another given a cold race  but who subseqyently makes a a large amount of ground equating to a slow/fast distribution of pace then you would make allowances.


I understand if you do not find the projected ratings argument is one that you do not have any belief in, and I certainly am not going to try and convince you otherwise. In fact, the more players who do not make any allowance for such ratings only means a better price can be had. The issue really is about the degree to which one can upgrade the rating which only comes into play if in future races the horse is ridden more efficiently. That is an assumption which might not hold, of course, in which case no such improvement in rating materialises.