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.Marksman.
29 Mar 23 14:07
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Date Joined: 13 Jul 10
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    ENGAGEMENT        Mercredi 10 Mai 2023        10h30 PARIS   
    FORFAIT 1        Lundi 25 Septembre 2023        11h30 ==   
    FORFAIT 2        Mardi 26 Septembre 2023        11h30 ==   
    PARTANT PROBABLE        Mercredi 27 Septembre 2023        11h30 ==   
    ENGAGEMENT SUPPLEMENT.        Mercredi 27 Septembre 2023        11h30 ==   
    MONTE        Jeudi 28 Septembre 2023        12h30 ==   
    ANNULATION PART PROB        Jeudi 28 Septembre 2023        10h30 ==   


(from france-galop.com)

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Replies: 236
By:
.Marksman.
When: 29 Mar 23 16:50
Before the initial entries for the Arc are made we have the Prix Ganay on 30 April.  If both Vadeni and Luxembourg turn up, it should be a good guide to the middle distance French races throughout the year.  Luxembourg had a stop start season last year, yet was still able to win the Irish Champion Stakes beating Vadeni. Given better luck, he could be AOB's top middle distance horse this year. Vadeni surprised me in last season's Arc, as I didn't think he would stay the distance, but he actually ran a good race in desperate ground to finish 2nd.  Equinox could be ahead of both of these if he gets his ground (which is if the word "firm" is in it).  The Japanese must have been disappointed by how the going went against them yet again in last year's race, but the law of averages suggests that we won't get these soft/heavy conditions for a fourth consecutive year.
Emily Upjohn was quite impressive winning on Champions day at Ascot.  Last year, in my opening post, I mentioned how Alpinista could give Sir Mark Prescott the highlight of his long career and a similar situation could occur here, if Frankie Dettori gets the ride.  (We could get the mother of all flying dismounts if she wins!)
Desert Crown went from unexposed and largely unknown to become the easy Derby winner in just a few weeks, but he has only beaten horses of his own generation and still has something to prove.
If Auguste Rodin really does win the triple crown, he would have had a hard season and I can see him skipping the Arc in these circumstances (as he would already have joined the greats).
Torquator Tasso and Grand Glory have already been retired, so shouldn't really be in Betfair's market.
By:
johnnyrant
When: 29 Mar 23 18:33
I think Sir Michael is going to win the Arc IF he can get Desert Crown there in one piece. Always has to be concern when a horse has had a few niggles but very hopeful DC goes right to the top this year. In his absence, Bay Bridge appeals to me as a handy back up for the yard. I can see him improving again if and when he is stepped up to 12f & he loves a bit of dig in the ground which you generally get on Arc day.
By:
jed.davison
When: 13 Apr 23 11:38
I've been backing Kyprios for this since it won the Cadran, think this minor injury makes it more likely it runs in the Arc, are they going to bring it back to run in a Cup race or two? If it runs, and it's soft, they won't see which way it goes.
By:
impossible123
When: 13 Apr 23 15:29
I think the winner of Epsom Derby Auguste Rodin, if sound; Kyprios could be a similar job of Order Of St George when Found won.
By:
sageform
When: 16 Apr 23 19:36
The best 3yo filly from the 2023 season will probably win the Arc. Highest rated older filly/mare next best. 8 female winners in the last 12 years.
By:
.Marksman.
When: 18 Apr 23 14:09
According to Charlie Appleby, Hurricane Lane will be aimed at the Arc this year.
By:
A_T
When: 27 Apr 23 11:14
after saturday won't be winning the arc or indeed any other race
By:
.Marksman.
When: 10 May 23 15:49
    Cheval        Poids        Valeur        Propriétaire        Entraîneur        Gains   
    vadeni m.ps. 4 a.         59,5 kg         56.5        H.H. AGA KHAN        JC. ROUGET (S)        17.13   
    true testament ire m.ps. 4 a.         59,5 kg         50.5        LADY BAMFORD        A. FABRE (S)        0   
    sisfahan m.ps. 5 a.         59,5 kg         ***        DARIUS RACING/M. MOTSCHMANN        H. GREWE        56.261   
    zagrey m.ps. 4 a.         59,5 kg         53        EC. ALTIMA / G.AUGUSTIN-NORMAND        Y. BARBEROT (S)        599.561   
    haya zark m.ps. 4 a.         59,5 kg         50.5        MME ODETTE FAU        A. FOUASSIER        84.55   
    piz badile ire m.ps. 4 a.         59,5 kg         ***        FLAXMAN STABLES IRELAND L.T.D        D. O'BRIEN        0   
    onesto ire m.ps. 4 a.         59,5 kg         55.5        G.AUGUSTIN-NORMAND        F. CHAPPET        0   
    sammarco ire m.ps. 4 a.         59,5 kg         ***        GESTUT PARK WIEDINGEN        P. SCHIERGEN        0   
    pretty tiger (ire) m.ps. 5 a.         59,5 kg         51        BERNARD GIRAUDON        F. VERMEULEN (S)        0   
    adayar ire m.ps. 5 a.         59,5 kg         ***        GODOLPHIN        C. APPLEBY        0   
    hurricane lane ire m.ps. 5 a.         59,5 kg         54        GODOLPHIN        C. APPLEBY        0   
    new london ire m.ps. 4 a.         59,5 kg         ***        GODOLPHIN        C. APPLEBY        0   
    simca mille (ire) m.ps. 4 a.         59,5 kg         53        HARAS DE LA PERELLE        S. WATTEL (S)        142.68   
    bay bridge gb m.ps. 5 a.         59,5 kg         ***        J.WIGAN/BALLYLINCH STUD        SIR MR. STOUTE        34.29   
    westover gb m.ps. 4 a.         59,5 kg         ***        JUDDMONTE        RM. BECKETT        1.123.628    
    pyledriver gb m.ps. 6 a.         59,5 kg         ***        LA PYLE PARTNERSHIP        WILLIAM MUIR/CHRIS GRASSICK        0   
    tunnes ger m.ps. 4 a.         59,5 kg         ***        HOLGER RENZ        P. SCHIERGEN        0   
    hukum ire m.ps. 6 a.         59,5 kg         ***        SHADWELL ESTATE CO. LTD        OJ. BURROWS        0   
    claymore m.ps. 4 a.         59,5 kg         50.5        MME MARY SLACK        MME J. CHAPPLE-HYAM        0   
    point lonsdale ire m.ps. 4 a.         59,5 kg         51.5        SMITH/MAGNIER/TABOR/WESTERBERG        AP. O'BRIEN        0   
    desert crown gb m.ps. 4 a.         59,5 kg         ***        SAEED SUHAIL        SIR MR. STOUTE        0   
    changingoftheguard ire m.ps. 4 a.         59,5 kg         ***        WESTERBERG/MAGNIER/TABOR/SMITH        AP. O'BRIEN        0   
    luxembourg ire m.ps. 4 a.         59,5 kg         55.5        WESTERBERG/MAGNIER/TABOR/SMITH        AP. O'BRIEN        0   
    FRANCESCO CLEMENTE IRE M.PS. 4 a.         59,5 kg         ***        WHITE BIRCH FARM        JOHN & THADY GOSDEN        0   
    SABIO CEN M.PS. 4 a.         59,5 kg         44        YEGUADA CENTURION SLU        CHR. HEAD (S)        5.4   
    nashwa gb f.ps. 4 a.         58 kg         ***        IMAD AL SAGAR        JOHN & THADY GOSDEN        0   
    place du carrousel ire f.ps. 4 a.         58 kg         52        AL SHAQAB RACING/BALLYLINCH STUD        A. FABRE (S)        8.58   
    la parisienne f.ps. 4 a.         58 kg         50        PETER R. BRADLEY III        C&Y. LERNER (S)        0   
    THROUGH SEVEN SEAS JPN F.PS. 5 a.         58 kg         ***        CARROT FARM        T. OZEKI        406.678   
    emily upjohn gb f.ps. 4 a.         58 kg         ***        LLOYD WEBBER/TACTFUL F./RODEN        JOHN & THADY GOSDEN        0   
    above the curve usa f.ps. 4 a.         58 kg         ***        MAGNIER/TABOR/SMITH/WESTERBERG        JP. O'BRIEN        0   
    emily dickinson ire f.ps. 4 a.         58 kg         ***        MAGNIER/TABOR/SMITH/WESTERBERG        AP. O'BRIEN        30   
    SALIERA JPN F.PS. 4 a.         58 kg         ***        SILK RACING CO. LTD        S. KUNIEDA        200.573   
    free wind ire f.ps. 5 a.         58 kg         ***        GEORGE STRAWBRIDGE        JOHN & THADY GOSDEN        0   
    flight leader gb m.ps. 3 a.         56,5 kg         ***        SUC. KHALID ABDULLAH        A. FABRE (S)        40   
    SPREWELL IRE M.PS. 3 a.         56,5 kg         ***        MOHAMMED KHALID ABDULRAHMAN        MME J. HARRINGTON        10.03   
    rajapour ire m.ps. 3 a.         56,5 kg         ***        S.A. AGA KHAN        JC. ROUGET (S)        12   
    al riffa (fr) m.ps. 3 a.         56,5 kg         ***        JASSIM BIN ALI AL ATTIYAH        JP. O'BRIEN        0   
    dubai mile ire m.ps. 3 a.         56,5 kg         ***        AHMAD ABDULLA AL SHAIKH        C. JOHNSTON        15.165   
    crypto force gb m.ps. 3 a.         56,5 kg         49.5        AMO RACING LIMITED        JOHN & THADY GOSDEN        0   
    padishakh m.ps. 3 a.         56,5 kg         ***        NURLAN BIZAKOV        JC. ROUGET (S)        24   
    sirjan ger m.ps. 3 a.         56,5 kg         ***        DARIUS RACING        A. WOHLER        8.25   
    FEED THE FLAME (GB) M.PS. 3 a.         56,5 kg         ***        ECURIE JEAN-LOUIS BOUCHARD        P. BARY (S)        27.5   
    ace impact (ire) m.ps. 3 a.         56,5 kg         48        ECURIES SERGE STEMPNIAK        JC. ROUGET (S)        54   
    flying honours gb m.ps. 3 a.         56,5 kg         ***        GODOLPHIN        C. APPLEBY        0   
    IMPERIAL EMPEROR IRE M.PS. 3 a.         56,5 kg         ***        GODOLPHIN        C. APPLEBY        0   
    MILITARY ORDER IRE M.PS. 3 a.         56,5 kg         ***        GODOLPHIN        C. APPLEBY        29.055   
    rubis vendome (gb) m.ps. 3 a.         56,5 kg         44        GUY PARIENTE HOLDING        M. BARATTI (S)        22   
    WIDA M.PS. 3 a.         56,5 kg         ***        HARAS DE LA PERELLE        P. DECOUZ (S)        5.4   
    canberra legend ire m.ps. 3 a.         56,5 kg         ***        KA KUI BONIFACE HO        J. FERGUSON        43.416   
    arrest ire m.ps. 3 a.         56,5 kg         ***        JUDDMONTE        JOHN & THADY GOSDEN        0   
    winter pudding m.ps. 3 a.         56,5 kg         45        THOMAS LINES        A&G. BOTTI (S)        38.5   
    SILVER CRACK M.PS. 3 a.         56,5 kg         ***        CLAUDIO MARZOCCO        JC. ROUGET (S)        17.7   
    dear my friend gb m.ps. 3 a.         56,5 kg         ***        MIDDLEHAM P.R. XXV/M. LAI        C. JOHNSTON        63.939   
    alder ire m.ps. 3 a.         56,5 kg         ***        O'BRIEN/MAGNIER/TABOR/SMITH        D. O'BRIEN        10.03   
    american flag m.ps. 3 a.         56,5 kg         50        MALCOLM PARRISH        Y. BARBEROT (S)        67.5   
    CHESSPIECE GB M.PS. 3 a.         56,5 kg         ***        RABBAH RACING        SIMON & ED CRISFORD        6.816   
    FIRST MINISTER IRE M.PS. 3 a.         56,5 kg         43        MICHAEL TABOR        A. FABRE (S)        10.85   
    paddington (gb) m.ps. 3 a.         56,5 kg         47.5        TABOR/SMITH/MAGN/WESTER/BRANT        AP. O'BRIEN        56.55   
    auguste rodin ire m.ps. 3 a.         56,5 kg         ***        TABOR/SMITH/MAGNIER/WESTERBERG        AP. O'BRIEN        0   
    DURA EREDE JPN M.PS. 3 a.         56,5 kg         ***        THREE H RACING CO. LTD        M. IKEZOE        162.986   
    mr hollywood ire m.ps. 3 a.         56,5 kg         ***        W.J. OBERHOF/S.J. WEISS        H. GREWE        38   
    hans andersen gb m.ps. 3 a.         56,5 kg         47.5        WESTERBERG/MAGNIER/TABOR/SMITH        AP. O'BRIEN        32.45   
    big rock m.ps. 3 a.         56,5 kg         ***        YEGUADA CENTURION SLU        CHR. HEAD (S)        123.85   
    jannah rose ire f.ps. 3 a.         55 kg         49.5        AL SHIRA'AA FARMS        C. LAFFON-PARIAS        40   
    pensee du jour ire f.ps. 3 a.         55 kg         48.5        BALLYMORE THOROUGHBRED RACING        A. FABRE (S)        81   
    heartache tonight f.ps. 3 a.         55 kg         ***        CHRIS WRIGHT/ANDY MACDONALD        D. MENUISIER        12   
    lindy f.ps. 3 a.         55 kg         46        EVEREST RACING        C. FERLAND (S)        16   
    crown princesse f.ps. 3 a.         55 kg         46        HARAS DE SAINT JULIEN/R.VANNOD        F. CHAPPET        58.9   
    running lion gb f.ps. 3 a.         55 kg         ***        DAVID PHILIP HOWDEN        JOHN & THADY GOSDEN        46.498   
    never ending story ire f.ps. 3 a.         55 kg         47.5        MAGNIER/TABOR/SMITH/WESTERBERG        AP. O'BRIEN        32.45   
    SAVETHELASTDANCE IRE F.PS. 3 a.         55 kg         ***        MAGNIER/TABOR/SMITH/WESTERBERG        AP. O'BRIEN        9   
    ELZORA F.PS. 3 a.         55 kg         ***        RIVIERA EQUINE /ERIC DE CHAMBURE        JC. ROUGET (S)        13.5   
    LEFT SEA (GB) F.PS. 3 a.         55 kg         46        WERTHEIMER & FRERE        C. LAFFON-PARIAS        17.5   
By:
ImSoLuckyLucky!
When: 10 May 23 17:01
Heartache Tonight unbeaten at Longchamp
Devil
By:
impossible123
When: 11 May 23 21:13
Savethelastdance is entered. She's 12/1.
By:
elisjohn
When: 13 May 23 07:32
i really like the around 25/1 adayir at the moment
By:
impossible123
When: 15 May 23 21:36
Auguste Rodin. Only doubt would be will connection run him if he was successful at Epsom?
By:
elisjohn
When: 04 Jun 23 15:32
will be keeping Ace Impact onside , didnt beat much today,  but will handle any condition, will come off a strong pace, will be kept fresh  for the race , taking the obrien horse which was 3rd in the dante and epictetius  could  be better than the epsom winner .
By:
ImSoLuckyLucky!
When: 04 Jun 23 18:42
Thought the French derbi winner revelled in the fast ground
Not so sure on slow ground
Wink
By:
impossible123
When: 04 Jun 23 19:00
Slow ground would favour Savethelastdance and with the weight allowance she'd be the value-bet.
By:
elisjohn
When: 04 Jun 23 19:45
ACE, has already won on soft, dont think the oaks form is anywhere near good enough
By:
ImSoLuckyLucky!
When: 05 Jun 23 16:54
I see tform rate both derby winners at the same level
125
hahaha
And Emily at 128 (increase of 8 )
Shocked
By:
.Marksman.
When: 06 Jun 23 09:43
It did look like the best yet from Emily Upjohn.
By:
impossible123
When: 06 Jun 23 13:27
I'd have Emily Upjohn last year but connections were non-compliant. I think it's a lot tougher this year as wfa is less generous. Soul Sister and Savethelastdance (esp if soft) could be the answer to a tricky renewal; Ace Impact - if staying - is another for serious consideration, I think.
By:
Figgis
When: 19 Jun 23 09:39
Barring accident/injury, I think it's highly likely that we saw the Arc winner yesterday. Last year when winning the Boussac I had Blue Rose Cen on a big speed figure. It made her almost a certainty to win an early season French Classic if she maintained that level. She has now won two. What is unusual about those winning performances is not how fast she ran (she's certainly no Enable at this stage) but that she has won those races without yet running up to her 2yo peak. By my reckoning she has around another 6lbs potential improvement. Not because of any questionable, speculative upgrade, but because she's already done it in the past.

What usually happens with a horse who was fast as a 2yo, is they hit that mark again early in their 3yo season and then it's difficult to maintain that level right to the end of the season. I think this is likely to be the case with Auguste Rodin, for example. Whereas BRC has managed to win her races while running within herself, or, at least, without quite running to her peak ability. If her schedule remains in France then it seems unlikely that she is going to be thoroughly tested before the Arc. She'll be difficult to beat.
By:
.Marksman.
When: 19 Jun 23 14:25
She does look the best 3yo filly in Europe, Figgis.
But I think the reason that she has not been entered in the Arc is that she was not considered likely to stay the 2400 metres.  (5 of the runners in the Diane did have Arc entries.)
She travels so well in races at 1m and 1m2f that this looks like her ideal trip.
She is by Churchill, who never won beyond a mile, out of a mare who was a miler in Europe, but who won a race at 1m4f at Santa Anita (but this was on firm, on a tight track, small field).
The only plus with regards stamina is that her damsire is Jeremy.
By:
Figgis
When: 19 Jun 23 14:56
Marksman, in truth I don't know if she'll stay. I've never taken more than just a very casual interest in the pedigree side of things, and even the people I've read who take it more seriously never seem to be able to offer anything more than a very rough guide. I'd be interested to see a thorough study on the success rates of Equinome research, but that isn't readily available.

However, one thing I found from an early stage of studying time performances is that, in general, most horses who can clock a fast time performance as a 2yo over 1m will usually get 12f as a 3yo. Particularly if they are able to race for the most part in a relaxed manner, amenable to restraint and finish off their races very strongly. This isn't a hard and fast rule set in stone but it works far more often than it doesn't. BRC finished off the 10.5f trip yesterday equally as well as she has done at shorter. Of course this doesn't mean she'd get another 1.5f for sure. She may have hit a brick wall yards after the line yesterday if she'd been racing over further. At the price we'll be getting though I think it's well worth the risk.
By:
Figgis
When: 19 Jun 23 15:09
Marksman, the other thing about her Boussac time performance was it was achieved on pretty soft ground. Admittedly that doesn't necessarily mean she has an abundance of stamina, but it all adds to the view that on racecourse evidence so far she certainly doesn't appear to be lacking it.
By:
Figgis
When: 27 Jun 23 16:10
Earlier I said that if BRC's schedule remained in France then she was unlikely to be thoroughly tested, well the same applies to her coming over and beating some third rate fillies in the Nassau. Although it will be good to see her race here.
By:
impossible123
When: 28 Jun 23 18:17
Blue Rose Cen or Ace Impact? I understand the former needs to be supplemented, and neither is she in the ARC market here. But, she was impressive in the Prix Diane.
By:
penzance
When: 28 Jun 23 19:20
Looks like there's a good chance she'll  be put in the Arc if she wins the Nassau
well enough.Sounded like connections were going that way.
By:
brandyontherocks
When: 28 Jun 23 19:36
Ace Impact would struggle to run in the Nassau !!
By:
penzance
When: 28 Jun 23 19:52
Who's talking about Ace Impact?
By:
brandyontherocks
When: 29 Jun 23 03:52
Impossible123
By:
impossible123
When: 29 Jun 23 17:46
I'd bet a can of diet coke Auguste Rodin will be an absentee at Longchamp Blue Riband race on 1st Oct. I  cannot see any of the elders winning it. I think the race could be between Blue Rose Cen and Ace Impact on present form; the Prix Vermeille and Prix Niel will decide the victor.
By:
.Marksman.
When: 29 Jun 23 22:31
I think we are back were we were last year:  Aidan's poor record with 3yos in the Arc. (Thanks to AT for pointing this out last year.)  If August goes for the KG after the Irish Derby he may start suffering from burn out.  They must have put plenty of work into him just to get to the 2000 Guineas, with a view of attempting the Triple Crown.
My guess is that he will win on Sunday and shorten immediately after this.  This is when I will get stuck in laying him.
By:
Figgis
When: 30 Jun 23 14:30
I see Timeform have Ace Impact the equal of Auguste Rodin. The RP actually have him 1lb higher. For me, this year's PDJC wasn't in the same class as The Derby and I have Ace Impact 6lbs lower than Auguste Rodin. That said, I don't believe AR has shown improvement from 2 to 3 and, without further progress, will struggle to maintain his level till the end of the season. It could be argued that Ace Impact is open to further improvement as he has only had four races and didn't race at 2. Nevertheless, I don't see Ace Impact as an Arc winner unless the race cuts up badly. In my view he's 6lbs below Blue Rose Cen (admittedly she's yet to reproduce that at 12f), plus she'll be receiving 4lbs.
By:
impossible123
When: 01 Jul 23 15:52
Could the form of Blue Rose Cen have taken a knock? Never Ending Story was beaten further by Via Sistina over 2f further.
By:
Figgis
When: 01 Jul 23 16:12
Nope.
By:
Sandown
When: 04 Jul 23 12:44
Figgis.
I think that you may be seriously under-estimating Ace Impact. The finishing split at Chantilly indicates that the horse might be special.
By:
Figgis
When: 04 Jul 23 13:53
Sandown, I don't know about your own methods, so I certainly won't try to criticise them. However, of the sectional data out in the public domain, and, more importantly, the way a lot of the data is being interpreted as a method for upgrading horses I am decidedly unimpressed. Before the Oaks I must've read at least half a dozen articles where the writer had swallowed the sectional Kool-Aid and declared Savethelastdance a future superstar. Just one example of many where these upgrades were total nonsense.
By:
.Marksman.
When: 04 Jul 23 16:17
Funny thing is that there are plenty of people who still think Savethelastdance is a superstar:  Money wanting to back her at 16.5 for the Arc.
I noticed that AOB was not even at Chester when she won.  Of course he talked her up after she'd won by 22 lengths because that is what he is supposed to do.
All the horses that she beat at Chester have run again since and none have won yet.  I suppose the best performance of any of these was Wintercrack who, after being beaten 34 lengths in a Leicester class 4 handicap, did manage a 3rd in a class 5 handicap at Newmarket (beaten only 1.75 lengths!).  However, most of the others finished last or second last in all their subsequent races.  So, on balance, I doubt the form of the Cheshire Oaks, before even taking into account the fact that the desperate conditions were exagerrating winning distances.
Also, nothing has come out of the Oaks and made the frame yet, but we haven't seen Soul Sister yet and I think she has more big wins in her.
Having written all this I'm going to lay a bit more Savethelastdance in the ARC.
By:
Figgis
When: 04 Jul 23 17:44
Marksman, I think she's not even a standout bet for the Irish Oaks, never mind winning an Arc.
By:
Sandown
When: 04 Jul 23 21:18
Figgis
If you compared one horse who ran on slow ground and another who ran on fast ground in the same race, I expect you would make some kind of rating adjustment for the performance of the different conditions.

Similarly, if you thought that the draw affected the outcome then you would adjust.

It's no different for the pace of the race effect. One horse who is given an even pace throughout and another given a cold race  but who subseqyently makes a a large amount of ground equating to a slow/fast distribution of pace then you would make allowances.


I understand if you do not find the projected ratings argument is one that you do not have any belief in, and I certainly am not going to try and convince you otherwise. In fact, the more players who do not make any allowance for such ratings only means a better price can be had. The issue really is about the degree to which one can upgrade the rating which only comes into play if in future races the horse is ridden more efficiently. That is an assumption which might not hold, of course, in which case no such improvement in rating materialises.
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