Horse Antepost

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29 Mar 23 14:07
Date Joined: 13 Jul 10
| Topic/replies: 1,791 | Blogger: .Marksman.'s blog
    ENGAGEMENT        Mercredi 10 Mai 2023        10h30 PARIS   
    FORFAIT 1        Lundi 25 Septembre 2023        11h30 ==   
    FORFAIT 2        Mardi 26 Septembre 2023        11h30 ==   
    PARTANT PROBABLE        Mercredi 27 Septembre 2023        11h30 ==   
    ENGAGEMENT SUPPLEMENT.        Mercredi 27 Septembre 2023        11h30 ==   
    MONTE        Jeudi 28 Septembre 2023        12h30 ==   
    ANNULATION PART PROB        Jeudi 28 Septembre 2023        10h30 ==   

Pause Switch to Standard View 2023 Qatar Prix de L'Arc de Triomphe
Show More
Report Sandown September 13, 2023 10:37 AM BST
10Sep23 Longchamp  (12Gd, RPR 116)
Feed The Flame accelerated well but in the last 100 metres he looked tired and blew very hard afterwards, while I think the winner is a good horse. He was in among horses for once and I think it will serve as a good preparation, though of course it's always better to win than be second. Softer ground would be a big help in three weeks' time - Pacal Bary, trainer.

14Jul23 Longchamp  (12GS, RPR 121)
We didn't have any choice in the [Prix de] Jockey Club, we had to use Feed The Flame up from his draw but at a mile and a half he was able to really accelerate. He'll be even better on autumn ground and if he stays in the same form, he'll have a real chance in the Arc - Pascal Bary, trainer.

The horse is being trained to win the Arc by a trainer who has done so. Plenty of Arcs are won by horses which put up an improved PB in winning the race so I wouldn't over-interpret the trial. The distance is ok and if the ground is on the soft side he can handle it.At the price he represents decent EW value I would have thought.
Report Figgis September 13, 2023 11:25 AM BST
He's 7/1 in places and as big as 12/1, but should be even bigger the way I read his form. Good luck to anyone who's backed him, and if he wins well done for spotting something that I'm just not seeing.
Report Sandown September 13, 2023 11:32 AM BST
Demuro has ridden both AI and FTF so his comments on both are interesting:

"It’s a real pleasure to ride the two best three-year-old colts in France. They are quite different in that Feed The Flame is a real horse for 2,400 metres [a mile and a half], and Ace Impact is very effective at 2,000 metres [a mile and a quarter] and, I think, 2,400 metres.

"I honestly don’t think there would be a problem in stepping Ace Impact up to 2,400 metres. I’ve watched the race back a thousand times and he was really strong through the line and I have little doubt he would have kept going over further."

PS My mistake . Bary has not yet won the Arc but he did go close with Sulamani
Report Sandown September 13, 2023 11:51 AM BST
As to AI chances of getting 12f, well his Dosage Profile suggests he should, but that measure has dropped out of favour to some extent. There haven't been many who have never tried  12f before winning the Arc. One I can remember is Saumarez. There may have been others but memory fails me. Certainly others have placed if not won at 12f.

For what its worth, I have AI at a level good enough to win but that stamina doubt lingers.
Report penzance September 13, 2023 2:09 PM BST
Prix Niel wnr,Fantastic Moon,probable N/R according to
connections.Looks like they prefer Japan & America.
Report .Marksman. September 13, 2023 2:16 PM BST
Feed the Flame had excuses in the Prix du Jockey CLub (as discussed earlier in this thread).  His impressive win in the Grand Prix de Paris looks even better now after Adelaide River made all to win at Leopardstown on Saturday.
Feed the Flame was given too much to do last Sunday and will be fitter for the Arc.  The trainer has repeated his statement that he would prefer softer ground, so we can assume that that is true.
Given softer going in the Arc, I can see him going off favourite on the day.  So I want him onside at the moment (with the possibility of it coming up very soft again).
Report Figgis September 13, 2023 3:47 PM BST
Marksman, but that was only a Gp3 where Adelaide River was greatly favoured by the weights (and the slow pace Moore set). Beating White Birch by 1.5 lengths while in receipt of 3lbs, he wouldn't even be good enough to win a St Leger.
Report FOYLESWAR September 15, 2023 8:32 AM BST
auguste rodin going  straight to breeders cup according to aob.
Report .Marksman. September 16, 2023 4:06 PM BST
When asked (on Sky Sports) where Continuous would race next, the only race that AOB mentioned was the Arc. He then said he would have to discuss it with the lads.
The Arc is (unusually) only 15 days after the Leger this year, so this could come round too soon.  But, on the other hand, the quick turnaround might be the sort of thing to break the Leger/Arc hoodoo.  Strange things happen in racing.
Report impossible123 September 16, 2023 4:49 PM BST
I think Coolmore would go for this race given the question mark about the stamina of the fav. The only negative is he'd a race on this tacky ground, and it's only 2 weeks' away. Maybe America with its prize money.
Report brandyontherocks September 17, 2023 12:11 AM BST
It was a very good win today from Continuous,  but that run
was still 6lb+ short of an average Arc winner.

For him to improve that much again in just 2 weeks, I would have my doubts.
Report impossible123 September 18, 2023 3:31 PM BST
Savethelastdance has taken a massive walk into the wilderness. On the other hand the price of Continuous has been contracting; he'd need to be supplemented though.

A decision made or bookies's friend?
Report FOYLESWAR September 19, 2023 1:24 PM BST
had a fewnquid on fantastic moon yesterday at around 100/1 on here yesterday ,prob done me dough but not a lot of rain in the forcast after this week and connections might be tempted!
Report .Marksman. September 19, 2023 3:44 PM BST
The 22-strong syndicate which owns Fantastic Moon has unanimously voted to reject several big-money offers for the impressive Prix Niel winner and has decided to skip next month's Qatar Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe, with trips to the US or Japan under consideration for the son of Sea The Moon. _Racing Post 13/09/2023

Sorry to bring you bad news, Foyles, but at least you won't be tempted to throw more money at him now.
Report FOYLESWAR September 19, 2023 4:34 PM BST
cheers marksman was only afew quid just under a tenner anyway so not the end of the world
Report .Marksman. September 19, 2023 4:38 PM BST
BBC Forecast for Paris next week is for warm, sunny and dry.
Going should be on the quick side.
Ace Impact will be suited by this as it will help him get the trip.
It will be against Feed the Flame.
These conditions will be what Westover has been waiting for.
Rule out Savethelastdance as she won't be running now (if she was ever an intended runner)
Through Seven Seas wants these conditions more than anyone:  She was unlucky in Takarazuka Kinen in Japan in June.  Given seemingly to much to do at the back, she may still have won, but for being checked about 1 furlong out.  Once clear she closed down Equinox to be beaten a neck.  This was on Good to Firm.  She has been at Chantilly for a week now, so will have had time to aclimatize.

I am no longer keen on Feed the Flame on quick conditions and I see it as being between Ace Impact and Through Seven Seas.  Through Seven Seas could be the value as she looks more likely to improve for going up to 1m4f.  The drawback is that she is a 5yo and whenever she runs at G1 level she goes off at big prices (55/1 in the above mentioned race), suggesting that she was flattered by getting that close to Equinox.  But there is an opinion that, even on quicker going, Ace Impact will not be as good at 1m4f.  My sole reason for preferring Through Seven Seas is that she is a bigger price at the moment.
Report brandyontherocks September 19, 2023 9:02 PM BST
Lightly raced for a 5 year old though, Marksman.

Her win to run ratio would be a concern for me,
but her two beat runs have both been this term.
Report lingbleed September 19, 2023 10:49 PM BST
hopefully the lads send Auguste Rodin here if the it remains dry, mostly because i backed him and Desert Crown and it would be nice if one showed up,
Report impossible123 September 20, 2023 11:21 AM BST
I do not think Desert Crown will ever race again. Every time his work rate is raised he'd succumb to another injury; the horse is fragile.

As for Auguste Rodin he's no Golden Horn or even Adayar or Wings Of Eagles. He beat another hyped horse in King Of Steel. He was also gifted the Irish Champion Stakes due to the injudicious rides of his two principals; he just managed to win the Irish Derby too.
Report .Marksman. September 20, 2023 1:59 PM BST
According to Paris Turf rain is expected tomorrow and Friday (5 to 15mm).  After this there won't be anymore rain at all before the Arc.  The manager of ParisLongchamp, Charles de Gordon, is counting on it being Good to Soft.  However Paris Turf comment (in the same article) that, with the forecast temperatures of between 23 and 27 for all of next week, the going could be faster than this in the middle of the afternoon on the big day.  Conditions could be comparable to those of 2018 when it was officially good.
Report brandyontherocks September 20, 2023 3:10 PM BST
Thank you, marksman
Report .Marksman. September 24, 2023 10:02 AM BST
'The plan is to go' - Bay Bridge set to run in Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe

Another big headline from the Racing Post.  This "news" has been available on ATR website for a week.  When RP start hyping a horse for a race a week away, I start having my doubts.  And when I read further down this was said:
"The plan is to go as long as the ground stays on the easy side," Savage said at Newmarket's Open Weekend.
Doesn't look to me that it will be on the easy side, given the forecast.
Report impossible123 September 24, 2023 4:54 PM BST
The market is suggesting Continuous will be supplemented. Any worries for the rest?
Report .Marksman. September 24, 2023 7:36 PM BST
Well none of these will be running:
Fantastic Moon
Hurricane Lane (officially scratched)
Adayar (scratched)
Torquator Tasso (retired to stud)
Grand Glory (retired to stud)
Desert Crown (out for the season, at least)

And there are loads more who are extremely unlikely such as:
Sammarco (in the sales the night before the Arc)
Equinox  (Has not been entered and connections have stated that they will miss the Arc).
Report impossible123 September 24, 2023 7:50 PM BST
Continuous running in The ARC 15 days after winning a race over 14f; Emily Dickinson (Cadran); Unquestionable (Lagardere); Opera Singer (Boussac); Jackie Oh (Opera).

Luxembourg and Paddington being aimed at Ascot's Champions Day.
Report .Marksman. September 24, 2023 10:57 PM BST
I don't consider running in a winning a 14f race just 15 days before the Arc as necessarily a disadvantage.  But when the race is the St Leger, that is a whole different ball game.  The stats are massively against Continuous winning this.  2 years ago I posted stats that indicated that the Leger was one of the worst (or the worst) G1 race for horses to make a quick reappearance after winning or even running in.  I will try and retrieve updated stats soon.
Report .Marksman. September 25, 2023 12:56 AM BST
Since 1997 22 horses have run in the St Leger and reappeared in Group 1 races within the next 25 days.  None of these made the first 2 places on this reappearance:
    “DATE”        “HORSE”        “NEXT RACE”        “PLACING”        “ODDS inc STAKE”   
    2000-09-16         CHIMES AT MIDNIGHT  USA          JEFFERSON SMURFIT MEMORIAL IRISH ST.LEGER (GROUP 1)         6        10   
    2000-09-16         ROSTROPOVICH I  IRE          JEFFERSON SMURFIT MEMORIAL IRISH ST.LEGER (GROUP 1)         4        21   
    2001-10-07         MILAN  GB          PRIX DE L*ARC DE TRIOMPHE LUCIEN BARRIERE (GROUP 1)         5        5.8   
    2001-10-07         SADDLER*S CREEK  USA          PRIX DE L*ARC DE TRIOMPHE LUCIEN BARRIERE (GROUP 1)         16        5.8   
    2002-09-28         SHOLOKHOV  IRE          PRIX DE L*ARC DE TRIOMPHE LUCIEN BARRIERE (GROUP 1)         4        34   
    2004-10-02         TYCOON  GB          JOE HIRSCH TURF CLASSIC INVITATIONAL (GRADE 1)         3        10.2   
    2004-09-26         DARSALAM  IRE          IVG - PREIS VON EUROPA (GROUP 1)         3        9.7   
    2005-10-02         SCORPION  IRE          PRIX DE L*ARC DE TRIOMPHE LUCIEN BARRIERE (GROUP 1)        10        11   
    2006-10-01         SIXTIES ICON  GB          PRIX DE L*ARC DE TRIOMPHE LUCIEN BARRIERE (GROUP 1)        6        11   
    2008-09-28         HINDU KUSH  IRE          IVG PREIS VON EUROPA (GROUP 1)         8        19   
    2008-09-28         BASHKIROV  GB          IVG PREIS VON EUROPA (GROUP 1)         9        41   
    2010-10-03         MIDAS TOUCH  GB          QATAR PRIX DE L*ARC DE TRIOMPHE (GROUP 1)        17        41   
    2011-10-02         MASKED MARVEL  GB          QATAR PRIX DE L*ARC DE TRIOMPHE (GROUP 1)        16        15   
    2012-10-07         CAMELOT  GB          QATAR PRIX DE L*ARC DE TRIOMPHE (GROUP 1)        7        3   
    2013-10-06         LEADING LIGHT  IRE          QATAR PRIX DE L*ARC DE TRIOMPHE (GROUP 1)        12        11   
    2014-10-05         KINGSTON HILL  GB          QATAR PRIX DE L*ARC DE TRIOMPHE (GROUP 1)        4        26   
    2017-10-01         CAPRI  IRE          QATAR PRIX DE L*ARC DE TRIOMPHE (GROUP 1)        17        21   
    2018-10-07         KEW GARDENS  IRE          QATAR PRIX DE L*ARC DE TRIOMPHE (GROUP 1)        7        9   
    2018-10-07         NELSON  IRE          QATAR PRIX DE L*ARC DE TRIOMPHE (GROUP 1)        8        101   
    2021-10-03         HURRICANE LANE  IRE          QATAR PRIX DE L*ARC DE TRIOMPHE (GROUP 1)        3        4   
    2021-10-03         MOJO STAR  IRE          QATAR PRIX DE L*ARC DE TRIOMPHE (GROUP 1)        10        47   
    2022-10-01         EMILY DICKINSON  IRE          QATAR PRIX DE ROYALLIEU (GROUP 1)         4        5.1   
Report impossible123 September 25, 2023 8:52 AM BST
Which is a better horse or a horse with more credentials, Order Of St George or Continuous? I think most would agree it'd be Order Of St George. The former was 4th To Enable, and 3rd to Found in The ARC,

Continuous beat Arrest? What did Arrest beat? Continuous was behind King Of Steel and Ace Impart over 12f; behind Ace Impart and Feed The Flame over 10.5f. The ARC price of Continuous is about right on a line with Feed The Flame given possible ground.
Report brandyontherocks September 25, 2023 11:48 AM BST
Arc forfeits on Monday

Sisfahan.             Henk Grewe
Haya Zark.            Adrien Fouassier
Onesto.               Fabrice Chappet
Simca Mille.          Stephane Wattel
Bay Bridge.           Sir Michael Stoute
Westover.             Ralph Beckett
Hukum.                Owen Burrows
Place Du Carrousel.   Andre Fabre
Through Seven Seas.   Tomohito Ozeki
Emily Dickinson.      Aidan O'Brien
Free Wind.            John and Thady Gosden
Sprewell.             Jessica Harrington
Mr Hollywood.         Henk Grewe
Feed The Flame.       Pascal Bary
Ace Impact.          Jean-Claude Rouget
Report penzance September 25, 2023 1:08 PM BST
Since the French Derby has been over 10F (2005) not 1 wnr has gone on to
win the Arc that year,think 10 have tried.Sottsass did but as a 4yr old.
Ace Impact could well change that this year.1st try @ 12F in this but the
way he he won the his Derby looks sure to get it to me.No reason that Feed
The Flame & Continuous will reverse the form from what I can see.Seems to
go on all surfaces aswell.Looking forward to a big performance from this
horse.Hope they all show.
Report Sandown September 25, 2023 3:38 PM BST
The SL to Arc is a tough call for any horse. Even Nijinsky failed. A 2 week gap instead of the usual 3 weeks demands even more. A lively surface over 2.5 furlongs less doesn't help.

Smacks a little of "There's nothing else for him. Whats the downside anyway, he won't run again this year" rather than looking like a long-term plan.

Should be double figures with those negatives. Well, he is with me.
Report penzance September 25, 2023 5:20 PM BST
User Friendly came close when just touched off by Subotica.
Already a GP1 filly being an Epsom,Irish & Yorkshire Oaks wnr.
Report .Marksman. September 25, 2023 6:45 PM BST
Latest BBC forecast for Paris (Charles de Gaul Airport) is for no rain at all between now and race time on Sunday.  Lots of sunshine all week and warm.  And the warmest day will be Sunday.

Report FOYLESWAR September 25, 2023 6:54 PM BST
fantastic moon could be supplimented back in according to media ,what happens to ante post bets ?
Report .Marksman. September 25, 2023 8:31 PM BST
Foyles, I have just read that on Paris Turf, which uses the caveat "if we are to believe the rumours coming out of Germany..."
Fantastic Moon was not an original entry so he would not be "rejoining" the field as Paris Turf have said.
But connections had ruled the Arc out only a week or two ago after previously being under consideration for the race so, if supplemented, he would in a loose sense be rejoining the field.
All antepost bets would be reinstated if he is supplemented.  This sort of thing has happened several times previously without any problems.
Report .Marksman. September 25, 2023 8:37 PM BST
from RacingTV website:

A favourable weather forecast has prompted connections of Fantastic Moon to reconsider supplementing the German Derby winner for Sunday’s Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe at ParisLongchamp.

Despite winning a recognised Arc trial over the course and distance in the Prix Niel, the Sea The Moon colt looked set to sidestep Europe’s premier middle-distance contest in favour of either a trip to the Breeders’ Cup or a tilt at the Japan Cup.

However, with little or no rain forecast in Paris in the run-up to Sunday’s showpiece, his team are now giving serious thought to adding him to the field on Wednesday at a cost of €120,000.

Lars-Wilhelm Baumgarten of owners Liberty Racing said: “We discussed it yesterday, because the weather forecast is dry and the sun in shining in Paris, perhaps we will get good ground.

“We will decide as late as possible because every day is important for us. How the horse is, how is he looking and working.

“We have a few opportunities too with the Breeders’ Cup and the Japan Cup and now we have the option of the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe again.

“We will see – our vet will check him, he will gallop in Munich and then we will see what’s going on and what the weather forecast will be in Paris.

“We decided two weeks ago that we would not run but the situation is new, the ground is better than we expected and the horse is better than we expected 14 days after the Prix Niel.

“It’s new information and a lot of horses are out of the race, so we will see.”
Report FOYLESWAR September 25, 2023 9:02 PM BST
thanks marksman , a lot of ifs buts and maybes as to wether he will  even line up but if he does he has a chance and wont be 100/1 .we will see, good luck .
Report September 26, 2023 6:12 AM BST

The forfeit (2) and supplementary stages are a day earlier for the Arc (not so other races on the card) so you will know before tomorrow lunchtime if Fantastic Moon is a runner. Final runners on Thursday.

I also have a fun bet on another German horse, Mr Hollywood at crazy odds (average @ 147) although ideally he wants soft/heavy, but has run OK on good. The H2H between our runners is 1-1, MH beating FM by 7.5L (10f on heavy) and the latter turning the form around winning by 2.5L in the German Derby(12f). I've seen FM twice, once in München when he was beaten by Charlie Appleby's Nations Pride, the other occasion at the trial 3 week ago. He ran well to win, but the pace was a farce.

Good luck.
Report brandyontherocks September 27, 2023 2:40 PM BST
Arc forfeits on Wednesday

Sisfahan.       Henk Grewe
Haya Zark.      Adrien Fouassier
Onesto.         Fabrice Chappet
Simca Mille.    Stephane Wattel
Bay Bridge.     Sir Michael Stoute
Westover.       Ralph Beckett
Hukum.          Owen Burrows
Place Du Carrousel Andre Fabre
Through Seven Seas Tomohito Ozeki
Free Wind.         John and Thady Gosden
Mr Hollywood.      Henk Grewe
Feed The Flame.    Pascal Bary
Ace Impact.        Jean-Claude Rouget
Fantastic Moon.    Sarah Steinberg
Continuous.        Aidan O'Brien
Report impossible123 September 27, 2023 7:19 PM BST
AOB and Coolmore will not run Auguste Rodin, Luxembourg or Savethelastdance here. I think Continuous offers a day out for the most dominant horseracing stable and horseracing enterprise in the world. I think 6/1 is shocking for a St Leger winner; a place lay is so very tempting for me.
Report brandyontherocks September 27, 2023 9:12 PM BST
Agree, Impossible123.

Very short in the betting.

I've been trying to look at the pace angle.

Does not seem to be any confirmed front runners in the race.
Report gpz6316 September 27, 2023 10:07 PM BST
we maybe looking at a new great of french horseracing to rival some of their best in ace impact . I would select it if my life were on it , but , 7-2 about a horse that connections neglected to run around longchamp in the niel to steal more prizemoney . The course  should come as much the same as the last , but , if youre thinking and dont know where you are because you,ve not been before , because the greedy owners wanted a bigger cheque than the niel its a negative . At the prices i,ll be on through seven seas . best of luck with your selection
Report gpz6316 September 27, 2023 10:30 PM BST
the horse knows how to win in big fields ,the current form line doesn't get better , the ground is coming for it and the Japanese couldn't want it more . Only reason its the price is the japanese have bee burnt soo many times . this time they got it . imo
Report impossible123 September 27, 2023 10:57 PM BST
'gpz6316', are you turning Japanese? A few close shaves and false dawns in the past, and this year's rep is under-the-radar. My anteposts are the 2 French 3 yr olds. Best of luck!
Report brandyontherocks September 28, 2023 11:46 AM BST
confirmed runners and riders
(Draw details in brackets)

Sisfahan.            Lukas Delozier (13)
Haya Zark.           Gerald Mosse (4)
Onesto.              Maxime Guyon (9)
Simca Mille.         Alexis Pouchin (15)
Bay Bridge.          Richard Kingscote (6)
Westover.            Rob Hornby (1)
Hukum.               Jim Crowley (14)
Place Du Carrousel.  Mickael Barzalona (11)
Through Seven Seas.  Christophe Lemaire (5)
Free Wind.           Frankie Dettori (3)
Mr Hollywood.        Bauyrzhan Murzabayev (10)
Feed The Flame.      Christophe Soumillon (2)
Ace Impact.          Cristian Demuro (8)
Fantastic Moon.      Rene Piechulek (12)
Continuous.          Ryan Moore (7)
Report gpz6316 September 28, 2023 9:21 PM BST
e , sou desu !
Report brandyontherocks September 28, 2023 10:39 PM BST
Indeed it is
Report impossible123 September 29, 2023 8:49 AM BST
Soumillon or Demuro? Which local jockey pushed a British jockey off his horse deliberately in a big race in France?
Report .Marksman. September 29, 2023 10:06 AM BST
I presume you mean Soumillon when he pushed Rossa Ryan off about a year ago.  But it is arguable whether he deliberately pushed him off, or was just trying to push him out of the way.  But he did push him anyhow.
Report impossible123 September 29, 2023 3:15 PM BST
Thanks 'Marksman'. I got him then, and Demuro against the field. Either will do me fine.
Report A_T September 30, 2023 8:26 AM BST
does not look like a field of world-beaters. surprised emily upjohn was taken out she easily saw off westover at epsom and i'd expect him to be close tomorrow if not actually quite good enough to win
Report impossible123 September 30, 2023 8:39 AM BST
Emily Upjohn: That's Gosden for you. When defeating Westover at Epsom he was eulogising the fillies, and destination France the main aim. Unless something is amiss with her - no news apparent on this - I think she ought to be here rather than the 2nd-rated Fillies and Mares at Ascot next month.
Report .Marksman. September 30, 2023 1:26 PM BST
Figgis, are you keeping an eye on the times of these races today with regard to the going tomorrow?
Please keep us updated.  Thanks
Report Figgis September 30, 2023 2:05 PM BST
Marksman, a couple of long distance races aren't the best to use as a guide, but it's difficult to see how it can be slower than good on the evidence so far.
Report impossible123 September 30, 2023 4:50 PM BST
If my two eg Ace Impact and Feed The Flame cannot win tomorrow I'd like Mr Kingscote and Sir Stoute win with Bay Bridge. Then Sir Stoute could call it a day, and enjoy the rest of his life watching cricket here and very possibly in Barbados.
Report apple wine September 30, 2023 6:28 PM BST
Any thoughts on an accurate ground description for tomorrow, it appears to have been cracking the flags all week in Paris but ‘good to soft’ going?? TIA!
Report apple wine September 30, 2023 6:30 PM BST
‘Soft’ on ATR website now?
Report Figgis September 30, 2023 6:45 PM BST
Very slightly the fast side of good. Basically it's good ground, with no excuse for any of them.
Report FELTFAIR September 30, 2023 6:48 PM BST
Good or at worst soft side of good. If there is another hot day will be good.
Report brandyontherocks September 30, 2023 8:32 PM BST
I do not know if Figg can reply this late, but
When Feed The Flame won the Grand Prix De Paris it was reported as good to soft but his time indicated much faster going?
Report brandyontherocks September 30, 2023 10:16 PM BST
I have found this years renewal particularly tough to be confident about anything.

Ace Impact was very impressive in the Jockey Club, but he beat two non stayers and wasn't that far clear of Al Riffa in his prep. Though his times have been good he is still to prove his stamina and at 11/4 I am happy to watch him win.

Hukum is now available at s sensible price along with Continuous and Westover.

I don't see the Continuous angle myself. A good winner at York and Doncaster, but short of an Arc winner. And the look of a typical after thought from Ballydoyle.

Westover and Hukum are similarly matched on their Ascot run, but Westover always seems to find one too good to get his head in front at the top table.

I was taken with Feed The Flame early s3ason, and backed him for the Jockey Club.
Thought that was a disappointing run but he bounced back in the Grand Prix De Paris.
He showed his ability for the distance that day with a sharp turn of foot.
He's still on myshort list along side Bay Bridge and Simca Mille.

Both have similar questions to answer with the top of the market, but you are getting plenty of juice in their prices.

Will try to narrow it down in the morning.

Good luck all
Report Figgis October 1, 2023 10:39 AM BST
When Feed The Flame won the Grand Prix De Paris it was reported as good to soft but his time indicated much faster going?

BOTR, yes, really it was good to firm that day.
Report FELTFAIR October 1, 2023 10:40 AM BST
If the going description at the Doncaster St Leger is to be believed Continuous put up a remarkable time and despite all the stats being against him I would be annoyed should he win today so have backed him each way.A similar argument applies to Feed the Flame given his performance in the Grand Prix de Paris and have backed him each way. Finally I am hoping the draw difference may give Westover the edge over Hukum and also have backed each way.The place side is still to be finalised and will back which ever number of places exceeds evens.

Should the above be fruitless I have layed Sisfahan,Haya Zark and Mr Hollywood to recoup my stakes.If either of the aforementioned win then I have **** the bed.
Report brandyontherocks October 1, 2023 1:19 PM BST
Cheers fig
Report .Marksman. October 1, 2023 2:00 PM BST
From the times the going is Good to Firm.  No soft in it.
Ace Impact and Through Seven Seas. (Through Seven Seas was value at 25 this time last week, but he is short enough now.)
Westover and Feed the Flame could battle it out for 3rd place.
Report .Marksman. October 1, 2023 2:15 PM BST
Feltfair you said "Should the above be fruitless I have layed Sisfahan,Haya Zark and Mr Hollywood to recoup my stakes."

That may sound like sensible insurance but if you said you had laid 200/1 outsiders to give yourself free bets on your fancies that sounds crazy:  If you don't like losing the relatively small stakes that you have placed on your selections, how will you feel if one of these outsiders is still in contention in the last quarter mile when much more is at stake?
I strongly recommend that you trade out your bets on Sisfahan,Haya Zark and Mr Hollywood.  Then just accept that you could lose your (lesser) stakes on your selections if luck goes against you.
Report FELTFAIR October 1, 2023 2:48 PM BST
The bank can take it.
Report .Marksman. October 1, 2023 2:52 PM BST
Good luck, Feltfair!
Report Figgis October 1, 2023 3:02 PM BST
The general opinion about Ace Impact is that he's very fast but might not stay. I see it that he's likely to stay but probably won't be fast enough. I was lukewarm about this year's KG immediately after the race. Softish ground, some fancied runners disappointing and won by a 6yo. It was easier for me to think that the first two had merely run close to their past best marks, Hukum down 1lb from his CC win last year, Westover up 1lb from his CC second this year.

However, revisiting the result again some time later I could see that I should've gone with what the most obvious interpretation of the times was telling me, that they'd both improved. I've said in the past that while the Arc is seen as the pinnacle of the flat season, there are often better performances put up midsummer, usually by older colts. The only reason why they don't have a better record in the Arc is they're knackered from earlier exertions. This year there is a good chance they'll do better, as Westover has had a rest and comes here on the back of a peak performance. I don't know for sure if he'll still be capable of that form 64 days later, but I much prefer that than him having a hard race recently.

Hukum has already surprised me by running a best effort at the age of 6, and maybe he can surprise me again by repeating that, but I'm passing on him and backing Westover, who I think has a cracking chance of winning this race, and winning it well.
Report FELTFAIR October 1, 2023 3:03 PM BST
Continuous and Feed the Flame 5 places and Westover 4 places.
Report Figgis October 1, 2023 3:16 PM BST
Well, Ace Impact proved certainly fast enough Laugh. I underrated his PDJC win and that was very impressive. Well done winners.
Report elisjohn October 1, 2023 3:26 PM BST
elisjohn • June 4, 2023 3:32 PM BST
will be keeping Ace Impact onside , didnt beat much today,  but will handle any condition, will come off a strong pace, will be kept fresh  for the race , taking the obrien horse which was 3rd in the dante and epictetius  could  be better than the epsom winner .         and of course i backed Westover win  Plain
Report roadrunner46 October 1, 2023 3:28 PM BST
Good result, French horse is very fast, westover ran his race, bad day for me, didn’t have a bet in the race, was going to try and get 1000 on the winner in the shops, not in the mood to go down there, big market clue in that opera singer race, someone was putting up 2k to lay that darnation, knew it was real sign, didn’t reactCry
Report impossible123 October 1, 2023 3:39 PM BST
£2.857m to the winning connections. I think stud beckons next.
Report brandyontherocks October 1, 2023 3:47 PM BST
Brilliant performance.

Well done, winners.
Report .Marksman. October 1, 2023 3:55 PM BST
Ace Impact was a deserved winner and the better ground meant that we had a more meaningful result.
However the race was run (on this going) Ace Impact would probably have won.
Through Seven Seas ended up being hemmed in just like she was against Equinox in Japan.  And it was the winner and third who did this.  If she could have started her run earlier, I think she would have been third or possibly second.
Report impossible123 October 1, 2023 7:01 PM BST
I think the stallion fee for Cracksman has just gone up courtesy of the triumph of Ace Impact in The ARC. He was only £17.5k, what next? Frankel over £100k; Dubawi (?). What was Galileo's?
Report ImSoLuckyLucky! October 1, 2023 7:12 PM BST
Only £300k to
Report .Marksman. October 1, 2023 7:30 PM BST
His fee is bound to go up substantially.  But I don't think he will succeed Frankel as the super sire even after Frankel is gone because Cracksman is from one of Frankel's early crops and people will always prefer Frankel while he is alive and kicking.  It is more likely that, after Frankel retires, the mantle will be passed on to a younger stallion, such as Ace Impact.  People expected Nijinsky to succeed Northern Dancer (possibly whilst Northern Dancer was still standing) but people kept preferring Northern Dancer over Nijinsky.  Sadler's Wells was one of Northern Dancers latter offspring and it was he who became the next leading sire.  If Ace Impact were to become the next super sire it would be skipping a generation and would be breaking the sequence:
Northern Dancer > Saddlers Wells > Galileo > Frankel  (father to son).
Report impossible123 October 1, 2023 7:50 PM BST
Galileo 300K to "friends" only per pop? What about Auguste Rodin? Coolmore will market him as if he's the Second Coming.
Report FELTFAIR October 1, 2023 8:05 PM BST
Was around 600,000 euros in 2021.
Report brandyontherocks October 1, 2023 8:06 PM BST
Dubawi is around the 350 mark, I believe.
Report brandyontherocks October 1, 2023 8:40 PM BST
Is there a site where you can see the sectionals for today?

It looked a steady enough pace early on, yet the hold up horses all finished strongly.

Only Westover of the handy horses finished in the top 5.
Report Figgis October 1, 2023 10:57 PM BST
On reflection, certainly not a bad Arc, but not exactly great form, in my opinion. While you can't really crab a horse for finishing second in an Arc, I was still a bit disappointed in the level shown by Westover. Or what I really mean is I am disappointed in myself for thinking he was better than a short head superior to Onesto. Not the horse's fault, I should've stuck with my original view of the KG form. No excuses for any of the beaten horses though and Ace Impact is obviously a worthy winner.
Report Sandown October 2, 2023 4:48 PM BST
Have to disagree with you Figgis. That was imo one of the best Arc winning performances we  have seen in a long time. I knew AI was very good based on his French Derby, and I rated him higher than his 125 because of his splits, but I was not expecting what we saw yesterday. I thought that 4.0 on the day was value but not huge value as there were plenty of good horses representing solid form, but in no way could I have known that he might have been exceptional value because he won like an odds on shot., otherwise I would have double my bet at least.

The RP have given him an RPR of 129 and a TS rating of 121. His final 2 furlongs were  22 secs and on those splits I have no doubt that he is worth a 140+ rating . The intervals between the front finishers do not reflect his superiority so if anyone proposes that he cant be that rating because that would mean those behind deserve higher, I would just reply that a one dimensional collateral comparison is not accurate enough.

That was a wow performance.
Report impossible123 October 2, 2023 5:45 PM BST
I thought Ace Impact could be exceptional too but I'd be accused of being biased. With only 2 behind him I was thinking he'd not win from there esp with the other principals eg Hukum, Westover, Feed The Flame and Bay Bridge having 1st run. And, when he started sprinting towards the leaders I was still not confident he'd get past them. But, I was glad he did.

I think what he did yesterday was pretty similar to Dancing Brave except there was no Bering in contention.
Report penzance October 2, 2023 6:12 PM BST
Opposition looked like they were on quicksand in the French Derby.
Looked a top animal then and proved it.
Report metro john October 2, 2023 6:18 PM BST
Ace did it wellCoolLove, but on reflection, Westover probably ran the race of his life close enough to the pace, while Through Seven Seas could have done with a non French jockey on Board and more positive tactics only beaten 3L
Report metro john October 2, 2023 6:20 PM BST
Ratings would seem on the high side to my eyes.
Report metro john October 2, 2023 6:46 PM BST
Treve did a 131 RP beating  Orfevre  by 5 lengths who then won the Grand Prix by 8 lengths on next start. So 129 looks all wrong.
Report Figgis October 2, 2023 8:14 PM BST
There are plenty of races that are obviously slowly run. In such cases we can be almost certain that beaten runners could've run faster given a faster pace. It was obvious with Nashwa in the Nassau, and I think the point was proved afterwards. This year's Arc was nothing like that.

In a well run race the idea that because a horse finishes faster than average it could run a faster overall time given a faster pace, or could've beaten the same horses further if asked for an effort earlier, or ridden closer, is a theoretical one. True for some horses, but proved to be not true for others. It's okay for a private handicapper to rate a horse much higher if that's what they believe. However, if Timeform or the others gave Ace impact a 140 on that performance the whole thing would be a nonsense.
Report Sandown October 2, 2023 10:33 PM BST
I agree that using collateral ratings you u can't rate AI to the rating based on sectionals. My experience is that eventually the projected rating is often reached on collateral ratings. Not always but often. The TS rating of 121 indicates that the race was truly run.
Report Figgis October 2, 2023 11:49 PM BST
Sandown, regardless of sectionals or times, I think most people are more impressed with a horse that finishes fast to win by a length and a half, than one that kicks on into the lead at the 2f pole and holds on to win by the same distance. The former is certainly more exciting to watch. There's an impression that the victory was gained more easily. There's also an assumption that the winning margin would've increased the further they went, "Won going away".

Anyway, the more I've followed racing the more I have come to believe that there really isn't a lot between the very best middle distance 3yos and what I'd call a typical, decent Gp1 winning level, just a few pounds at the most. The ones that look extremely impressive are usually a result of the opposition falling apart. I just think we didn't see a proper Gp1 performance from any of the older horses in opposition on Sunday, but Ace Impact may well have won anyway, in receipt of the 6lbs allowance.
Report Sandown October 3, 2023 10:33 AM BST
My reading of the collateral form is that the RP handicapper has been conservative and could easily have justified another couple of pounds on the ratings given, but that is really neither here nor there in the scheme of things. Westover had a good ride after a slowish start and I thought ran to his best mark of 127 but the RP gave him 125 rather than give Onesto a 4lb rise if they had gone through Westover, rather than drop Westover 2lb as they did.

AI was positioned for a clear run on the outside, the jockey preferring a clear run rather than save ground, so that is also to his credit. I admit that judging him to be a 140 horse on the Arc run may seem a stretch but a projected rating is solid and proven conjecture backed up by years of observation - and maths!

The owners of AI have another good horse in Horizon  Dore who also has a good turn of foot and may be their representative at Ascot in the Champion Stakes and will have a good chance.
Report Figgis October 3, 2023 11:07 AM BST
a projected rating is solid and proven conjecture backed up by years of observation - and maths!

Sandown, you say that, but I have seen very little evidence of it from anywhere in the public domain. All the sectional fans were saying Savethelastdance was going to be an above average Oaks winner, she was nothing of the kind. Now, we all get it wrong, as I just did with Westover, so I wouldn't condemn a method for not hitting the nail on the head every time, but, without a solid final time to back it up, very few of these projections come true.
Report Figgis October 3, 2023 11:19 AM BST
Just to add, I am not trying to look for ways to pull down the level of this year's Arc. On watching the race in real time I assumed I had just underrated Ace Impact. It was only after analysing the result that I realised the level wasn't as good as I'd thought. For me, underrating one is more acceptable than overrating one, which I had done with Westover. I've never ever seen a 6yo significantly improve at the top level, so I don't know why I eventually convinced myself that Hukum had done in the KG. I completely lost the plot there and there's no excuse.
Report Sandown October 3, 2023 1:51 PM BST

The more solid the final time, the more reliable the ratings whether time, collateral or sectional.

I agree that there is nothing of much use regarding sectional projections in the public domain. There will be others who have developed a method but like me there is no advantage , in fact the opposite, in divulging anything to a wider public. Plaudits I do not need.

Just because a horse has run a good sectional once is no guarantee that it can repeat that, just as with fast final times. That's only to be expected. Not machines and all that.

Westover reversed placings with Hukum which was not unexpected given the faster ground and being a younger horse, and I thought Westover ran to his best rating(KG). Hukum was also disadvantaged by his draw.
Report Figgis October 3, 2023 3:17 PM BST
Luxembourg was another that was supposed to be a future world beater. Everyone could see from his form and times that he was fairly decent, but the projected sectionals proved a bum steer. I have Westover down 4lbs, which I should've seen coming if I hadn't revised my KG rating. Onesto isn't particularly good as a 4yo and there's no way I would've seen him going as close in the KG. I don't know about the Japanese form, but I have Continuous backing up his Leger mark. Bay Bridge was obviously below his best and I've never rated Feed The Flame in with even a chance.

Anyway, like I said, I used to believe in all this 140+ stuff but I now think that there's only a few pounds between an average, decent Gp1 winning 3yo middle distance colt and the very best ones. Helissio as a 4yo didn't look the exceptional colt he did when winning the Arc, Peintre Celebre was conveniently retired.
Report roadrunner46 October 4, 2023 7:18 PM BST
I expected westover to run well and definitely place in the arc over hukum, it was said the king George was one of the best middle distance race run in Europe this year, on the morning line they mentioned the running style of westover in a negative light, usually have to be a fast horse to win that race, that is why I assumed westover ran the best race he could in finishing 2nd
Report A_T October 7, 2023 11:28 AM BST
the proximity of Onesto (who's done nothing else this season) following home the winner makes me wonder if they had a faster strip of ground than those closer to the rail
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